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StTexan
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What percentage of people in the US can run a 10 minute mile?

My guess would be about 33%

12/22/2024 2:37:25 AM

TreeTwista10
minisoldr
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That seems generous. I'd say like 20%.

12/22/2024 5:16:49 AM

qntmfred
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MARA10MMA

12/22/2024 10:26:09 AM

StTexan
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Perhaps 33% was too generous. I think I will try running a 10 minute mile. Depending on the results I will cut my number in half. Or leave it the same

12/22/2024 10:33:29 AM

justinh524
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190%

12/22/2024 5:40:37 PM

theDuke866
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20% seems generous to me.

I wonder what percentage could run a mile at all.

12/22/2024 9:52:18 PM

TreeTwista10
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I'd like to think a good chunk of the 22.2% of the population who are under 18 could do it, as well as a small portion of the 35.9% of the population age 18-44. But I dunno.

ChatGPT said 50-60%, but then when I questioned it, they revised it to 10-15%

[Edited on December 22, 2024 at 10:16 PM. Reason : .]

12/22/2024 10:15:01 PM

justinh524
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10 minute mile is basically briskly walking. I would guess much higher than 33%

12/22/2024 10:19:52 PM

TreeTwista10
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6mph is more than briskly walking

12/22/2024 10:26:03 PM

theDuke866
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3/4 of the population is overweight. Of those, over half are obese. Many others (as well as the fatties) are horrifically out of shape (sit on ass eating Cheetos and playing video games). Others have health issues. A significant number are very young or very old.

Sure, some of those classified as overweight are either athletic and carrying a lot of muscle, or are very active and could prob run one 10-minute mile. Looking at this at a macro level, though, it's a bad, bad picture.

I don't think there's any way it's more than 20%. My guess is that it's much less than that. I bet it's single-digits.

[Edited on December 22, 2024 at 11:27 PM. Reason : yeah WAY more than briskly walking]

12/22/2024 11:26:54 PM

moron
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I know exactly 1 person personally that can run a 10 minute mile and running is basically theyre only hobby. They run marathons

Given this anecdote I would agree it’s a single digit number that could do a 10 min mile

12/23/2024 1:03:46 AM

The Coz
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Let's do a TWW test case. I am pretty sure I could do it due to historical banked fitness and not being crippled or overweight. I would be totally gassed and possibly develop a temporary arrhythmia, however. I could prove it, although I'm away for the holidays and my GPS watch and heart rate monitor are at home.

12/23/2024 7:50:25 AM

qntmfred
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i ran a 5k last year for the first time and got 29:05 which according to my calculations qualifies as a sub-10 minute mile.

12/23/2024 7:51:10 AM

fatcatt316
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I'll say 10%, that's basically superhuman time

12/23/2024 7:58:08 AM

dmspack
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33% is too high. 20% might be pretty close. I’d say 15-20%.

16% of the population is over 65. Yes, some 65+ year olds can run a 10 minute mile. But it feels safe to say less than 10% of the 65+ population could run a 10 minute mile.

18% of the population is 0-14. There are plenty of teens/near teens that could run a 10 minute mile. But how many kids under, say, 10 are running a 10 minute mile? I would guess almost none.

We’ve already ruled out like 30% of the population on age alone. I don’t think half of the remaining population can do it. We haven’t taken into account disabilities and obesity or any other physical reasons why somebody would be unable to. And what percent of the remaining population is even consistently physically active? Even if a person isn’t overweight and is generally considered healthy and able bodied, if they don’t regularly run can we reasonably expect a 10 minute mile with out at least some training/practice?

52% of the population is between the ages 15-54. This would be the range most likely able to do it. And then…can half of them? Maybe a third of those age range feels more realistic.

12/23/2024 8:47:40 AM

StTexan
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Interesting percentages you presented there dmspack

I'd say 20% of under 14 ppl could, about 20% of the 52% block(i believe you said 15-54 year olds), maybe 10% of that 16% of over 65 folks, which leaves the 14% of people 55-64. I'd put that perhaps 15%.

That comes to 3.2+10.4+2.1+1.6

Comes to about 17.3%

Probably way over-estimating 10% of people above 65, and way over-estimating 55-64 age groups. I'd like to hope not, though.

12/24/2024 12:07:53 AM

theDuke866
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I think both of you are overestimating pretty close to everything

12/24/2024 12:38:27 AM

StTexan
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That is fair, sir. But estimates would be beneficial.

I'd say actually like 5% of the under 14 age group, cause a lot of those are like 3 year olds and they are not running 10 minute miles.

And 55-64 group probably closer to 5%. Over 65 group probably closer to 2%. 15-54 age group a solid 15%.

Not sure what that adds up to but probably more in line with what you are thinking.

12/24/2024 12:51:36 AM

emnsk
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Let's make it more interesting. What percentage of the population do you think could already or begin to run a sub 10 minute mile with ten days of daily training.

Capability of rebounding is a better way to get an idea than just being able to do it on the spot, it separates the average guy from someone obese to a serious point

[Edited on December 24, 2024 at 1:41 AM. Reason : also, where do you guys live? I wonder if that affects your take on this]

12/24/2024 1:39:29 AM

theDuke866
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I think those #s are in the ballpark. If anything, I'd guess some of them a touch optimistic still, but I'm guessing those are pretty reasonable.

[Edited on December 24, 2024 at 1:45 AM. Reason : your #s total up to 9-10%. So yeah, my gut feeling was right that I'm slightly more pessimistic ]

12/24/2024 1:41:30 AM

StTexan
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^^i like that. To take it further, i'd say if you could literally make some peoples life depend on it, and gave them 10 days of "training" or whatever, you could probably realistically triple what you'd otherwise get, in this case somewhere between 8-12%? Haven't done math on my last set of percentages

[Edited on December 24, 2024 at 1:47 AM. Reason : In other words it wouldn't take long for a much higher percentage to prevail]

12/24/2024 1:46:28 AM

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