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 Message Boards » » TWW Tontine Page [1]  
EMCE
balls deep
89772 Posts
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Lets get it crackalackin', B.


Im betting on being able to outlive you herbs.

9/28/2015 1:08:12 PM

BigMan157
no u
103354 Posts
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alright ox, why don't you take us through it?

9/28/2015 1:11:45 PM

EMCE
balls deep
89772 Posts
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Basically, we will all pay into this annuity fund. At some predetermned date, we will all start getting paid out of this annuity. If someone dies, their share is split amongst the living members. Last person left living gets the whole thing.

9/28/2015 1:15:26 PM

justinh524
Sprots Talk Mod
27851 Posts
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Last one alive gets TWW

9/28/2015 1:22:21 PM

darkone
(\/) (;,,,;) (\/)
11610 Posts
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Quick, someone model this.

9/28/2015 5:15:31 PM

darkone
(\/) (;,,,;) (\/)
11610 Posts
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Fine. I'll model this.
Assumptions:
50 people
$10K buy-in
uniform buy-in age of 30
average annual growth of 7%
pay back starts at age 60 with an annual amount tuned to have the fund run to zero at age 100

Expected payout per member:


Member age Annual Payout/member
60 $ 5,901.64
.
.
.
65 $ 6,323.19
.
.
.
70 $ 6,809.59
.
.
.
75 $ 7,811.00
.
.
.
80 $ 9,836.07
.
.
.
85 $ 13,977.57
.
.
.
90 $ 24.143.08
.
.
.
100 $ 265,573.88


Live to age 62 and you would break even. Live to age 75 and you'd have a 10x ROI.


Mortality Data from: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr54/nvsr54_14.pdf

9/28/2015 5:50:48 PM

BJCaudill21
Not an alcoholic
8015 Posts
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how about $10/yr

9/28/2015 5:56:29 PM

darkone
(\/) (;,,,;) (\/)
11610 Posts
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Can you be more specific?

9/28/2015 5:59:58 PM

darkone
(\/) (;,,,;) (\/)
11610 Posts
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So, for the model I posted above, if you just invested your buy-in money and got the same average annual growth, you'd outperform the tontine until age 100.

9/28/2015 6:09:56 PM

darkone
(\/) (;,,,;) (\/)
11610 Posts
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Oops. I'm wrong about solo investing out performing the tontine. I forgot the fact that you might want to take money out.

Assuming the same payout patterns, the tontine outperforms solo investing at age 70. Also, solo investing would only payout until age 81 before the funds would be depleted.

9/28/2015 6:38:45 PM

EMCE
balls deep
89772 Posts
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...and assuming darkone knocks a few cats off prematurely, the payout just goes up from there. Me...I'm way too nice of a person to murder my fellows.

Anyway, anyone want to go hunting?

9/28/2015 6:44:22 PM

darkone
(\/) (;,,,;) (\/)
11610 Posts
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Fishing. You want to go off-shore fishing.

9/28/2015 6:47:24 PM

darkone
(\/) (;,,,;) (\/)
11610 Posts
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IF anyone wants to play with my spreadsheet:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/jl4pw4ex1wrmy0l/Tontine_Model.xlsx?dl=0

9/28/2015 6:49:51 PM

Wyld Stallyn
Suspended
1087 Posts
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More like TWW tonite cause

Tonight is the night

Bright lights, hype crowd

Yeah, we came to throw down

Everybody get loud

Tonight is the night

A-list, can't miss

When we burn it to the ground

Everybody get down

Tonight is the night

We stayed grindin' while our fame kept risin'

Steady climbin', now we on top

It's not something you get, it's just something we got

Cause I don't know if you know

If you know we playin' or not, tonight

Lights flashin'

When we step in the place

And you can feel the raw excitement

From the look on their face

It's like the prize right in front of my eyes to take

And the sky's the limit, got no time to waste

Tonight's the big go

Strike quick but creep slow

The competition is absent

The moment that we show

Count down from 3 go

Press X to reload

Yet they still try to topple the kingdom that we own

Outnumbered but outgunnin'

We're fearless and crowd stunnin'

Never an error on record

There's no one to protect yah

And we would still be right here

If all the money was burned

But we stay bumpin' in your ear

Cause the money was earned, yo

You can find us climbing settin' the bar

Or you could find us red carpet when we hittin' it hard

Cause the truth is you can find us wherever you are

Just look up, we're flying high with the stars cause…

Tonight is the night

Bright lights, hype crowd

Yeah, we came to throw down

Everybody get loud

Tonight is the night

A-list, can't miss

When we burn it to the ground

Everybody get down

Tonight is the night

We stayed grindin' while our fame kept risin'

Steady climbin', now we on top

It's not something you get, it's just something we got

Cause I don't know if you know

If you know we playin' or not, tonight

Lights flashin'

When we step in the place

And you can feel the raw excitement

From the look on their face

It's like the prize right in front of my eyes to take

And the sky's the limit, got no time to waste

Tonight's the big go

Strike quick but creep slow

The competition is absent

The moment that we show

Count down from 3 go

Press X to reload

Yet they still try to topple the kingdom that we own

Outnumbered but outgunnin'

We're fearless and crowd stunnin'

Never an error on record

There's no one to protect yah

And we would still be right here

If all the money was burned

But we stay bumpin' in your ear

Cause the money was earned, yo

You can find us climbing settin' the bar

Or you could find us red carpet when we hittin' it hard

Cause the truth is you can find us wherever you are

Just look up, we're flying high with the stars cause…

Tonight is the night

Bright lights, hype crowd

Yeah, we came to throw down

Everybody get loud

Tonight is the night

A-list, can't miss

When we burn it to the ground

Everybody get down

Tonight is the night

We stayed grindin' while our fame kept risin'

Steady climbin', now we on top

It's not something you get, it's just something we got

Cause I don't know if you know

If you know we playin' or not, tonight

Lights flashin'

When we step in the place

And you can feel the raw excitement

From the look on their face

It's like the prize right in front of my eyes to take

And the sky's the limit, got no time to waste

Tonight's the big go

Strike quick but creep slow

The competition is absent

The moment that we show

Count down from 3 go

Press X to reload

Yet they still try to topple the kingdom that we own

Outnumbered but outgunnin'

We're fearless and crowd stunnin'

Never an error on record

There's no one to protect yah

And we would still be right here

If all the money was burned

But we stay bumpin' in your ear

Cause the money was earned, yo

You can find us climbing settin' the bar

Or you could find us red carpet when we hittin' it hard

Cause the truth is you can find us wherever you are

Just look up, we're flying high with the stars cause…

Tonight is the night

9/29/2015 1:27:06 PM

GrumpyGOP
yovo yovo bonsoir
18191 Posts
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The payout is zero when the capital gets confiscated because tontines are illegal as fuck, B.

9/30/2015 2:59:29 PM

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