I think I finished 2011 rail flat with like 5 trades the entire year with my money sitting on the sidelines most of the time.

Predictions for the upcoming year? Will this be the year of the apocalypse?

12/30/2011 11:34:25 AM

Quote :

"The Soap Box politics, social issues, financials. basically anything serious."

12/30/2011 1:22:57 PM

The European collapse will happen this year. The Japanese collapse may happen this year as well.

It looks like the Fed is going to perform bailouts though so who knows how crazy and volatile the markets could become.

I think we'll see other countries moving further away from the dollar (quite the acceleration at the end of 2011) after we hold hands and jump off the cliff with Europe.

Will we see Bank of America fail/receive another bailout? Very possible, they are in the danger zone already.


Overall, this year promises to be even more exciting than the last.

One thing is for certain, gold will continue its meteoric rise for the 11th consecutive year.

12/30/2011 1:31:16 PM

Picked up some TZA pre-market at $24.60.

1/3/2012 9:50:35 AM

My prediction is that face will continue to do mountains of cocaine and post inane shit.

1/3/2012 1:39:44 PM

^what's the line on this? (no pun intended)

Smart money will gladly accept dumb money as we near December

Ride the wave

y=3x til sept, then y=-1.5x^2

1/3/2012 6:00:52 PM

MA down 4% on downgrade news.

On the fence about whether or not I want to sell a put or two.

1/4/2012 3:03:10 PM

bought some DGP today and sold some TNA that i'd held since late December

1/9/2012 4:41:50 PM

just picked up some FAS

1/11/2012 12:59:05 PM

Does anyone know of a good site that can give a 5-10 minute video wrap up of the business day post 4:30? Also curious as to what people think about GLD after the huge pullback and now if it's set to get back over 180 which I think puts gold close to $1,900 an ounce

[Edited on January 12, 2012 at 6:27 PM. Reason : .]

1/12/2012 6:25:50 PM

^ Watch Cramer everything is fine, the higher he rolls up his sleeves the more you should buy.

1/12/2012 10:50:08 PM

S&P 1300

Pretty stagnant January. Where'd all the volatility go?!

[Edited on January 17, 2012 at 10:35 AM. Reason : X]

1/17/2012 10:34:25 AM

just sold some TNA and FAS that i've had since the start of the year

1/17/2012 4:00:01 PM

MCD down a bit.

1/24/2012 2:36:10 PM

^several

Quote :

"The Soap Box politics, social issues, financials. basically anything serious."

There's kind of a precedent:
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message_topic.aspx?topic=508055
message_topic.aspx?topic=453056
message_topic.aspx?topic=378159



[Edited on January 24, 2012 at 2:46 PM. Reason : -]

1/24/2012 2:46:16 PM

Over the past few years whenever volatility has stagnated it has usually come back in full force shortly afterwards.

There just isn't a ton of news right now.. I've been out of the loop for the past few weeks so I'm not comfortable making any big bets right now but I think I'll start researching the VXX.

1/24/2012 4:05:09 PM

yay AAPL

401k feeling happy.

1/24/2012 9:12:54 PM

nvm



[Edited on January 24, 2012 at 10:34 PM. Reason : my secret]

1/24/2012 10:32:54 PM

Honestly, people should not have been investing in anything other than AAPL for the last 5 years. I tried to make everyone around me rich, but they wouldn't listen.

1/25/2012 12:02:37 AM

Lets see what your trading statement looks like brohab. You fucking know it all faggot.

1/25/2012 7:02:07 AM

It's weird how know-nothings get the most upset when talking to their betters. Jealous of others' success, but too stupid to change their own situation.

1/25/2012 8:16:28 AM

Yep, I would have maximized my return if I had put it all in AAPL

1/25/2012 8:41:00 AM

Yesterday sold AAPL Feb 410 puts and bought Feb 425 calls at 9.65 and 13.8 respectively.
Sold to close calls at 25.00 and bought puts at 1.00 today

spent 4.15/share and made 19.85/share

1/25/2012 2:16:10 PM

Quote :

"It's weird how know-nothings get the most upset when talking to their betters. Jealous of others' success, but too stupid to change their own situation."

Well aren't you just a cutie pie! I don't see much of a statement backing up anything. Money where your mouth is and such.


^ Very impressive sir. How many shares?

Btw, are you just enterring limit orders or do you work a job where you can have a terminal up all day or something? I'm actually about to change cell providers so I'll have a better data connection where I work specifically so I can make trades during the day.

[Edited on January 25, 2012 at 5:55 PM. Reason : .]

[Edited on January 25, 2012 at 5:57 PM. Reason : .]

1/25/2012 5:54:43 PM

This is sort of related, but is anyone familiar with thrift savings plans offered by the fed. government?

[Edited on January 25, 2012 at 7:28 PM. Reason : f]

1/25/2012 7:28:23 PM

Yes, what about them?

1/25/2012 7:38:14 PM

I'm trying to decide what fund is the best, if possible, based on the market.

https://tsp.gov/investmentfunds/investmentFunds.shtml

I guess my concerns lie within the risk (market, credit, prepayment, currency and inflation)

Is the L fund a good way to go? I do like that the C, S and I funds have dividends.

[Edited on January 25, 2012 at 7:59 PM. Reason : f]

1/25/2012 7:58:06 PM

Standard investment advice is if you are young then you want to be in the most aggressive funds. Those would be C, S, I with I being the most aggressive. This is the advice you're going to get from Dave Ramsey, David0603, and various other investment adviser type of people. This advice comes from looking at market history going back decades and decades and I want to say any 30 yr period over the past 100 years tends to nearly always average the historical 7% (after inflation including dividends) the market has been returning.

This is good standard advice to use.

Just be aware that I is emerging markets with C & S being US markets. Generally, when the world economy is booming I should outperform the others, however when the world economy hiccups you end up getting punished more severely in I than the others. So...personally, speaking I'd be more inclined to hanging out in S first and then C if you're really more of a worrier.

1/25/2012 8:18:18 PM

Ewwww. You used my name in the same sentence as Dave Ramsey
I forget, do we know each other Chance?

1/25/2012 8:47:20 PM

bought $BAC last week @ $6.72 wish I would of bought in the $5.00 range -- it should be an interesting year for that stock, more fun than watching the cash in my money market account earning less than the rate of inflation

[Edited on January 25, 2012 at 9:40 PM. Reason : ]

1/25/2012 9:39:50 PM

Quote :

"I forget, do we know each other Chance?"

Only via the stock market threads.

1/25/2012 9:49:24 PM

I finished 2011 up 7.71%, would have been over 10% if it hadn't been for the awful GRPN two days and could have been 13% if I had held INHX two more days.

So far this year, still sitting on a lot of WYNN (just got in the black) and MTW (up close to 40%), but no sells yet. Worst this year was missing buying back into INHX when it dipped back below $10 then the following monday went to $24, most costly procrastination to date.

1/25/2012 10:46:29 PM

Quote :

"Very impressive sir. How many shares?"

Sadly just 100. I'd set up the whole thing around 3:55 and hadn't done the research to feel better about going heavier, especially with the naked put involved. I'd also set up a larger ITM call on Boeing pre-earnings and ended up closing at the same price I opened with today. Oh well.

Quote :

"Btw, are you just enterring limit orders or do you work a job where you can have a terminal up all day or something?"

I do some trading with work. Fortunately it's on the same platform as I use so I'm able to switch between accounts with a pulldown tab all nimbly bimbly.

1/25/2012 10:47:52 PM

gold continues to surge.

Surprise Surprise, the fed is now saying they never plan to raise rates again.

Never saw that coming

1/26/2012 1:49:41 AM

Jamie Dimon @ Davos talking about ending too big to fail - props.

1/26/2012 6:25:47 AM

I'm relieved to see that face is still an expert at making predictions after the fact.

1/26/2012 9:08:33 AM

Lol, it's not like I've been saying for three years now that I don't think they'll ever raise rates again before the currency crisis.

[Edited on January 26, 2012 at 12:58 PM. Reason : a]

1/26/2012 12:58:14 PM

lol. three years. ok.

hows your AAPL short going?

1/26/2012 1:18:02 PM

WSJ is reporting facebook will file for IPO on wednesday

1/27/2012 1:31:48 PM

Hot damn. It's about time.

1/27/2012 1:53:40 PM

Set up a synthetic long on BAC for Jan 2013 on 9/29 via buying 7.5 calls at 1.48 and selling 7.5 puts at 2.66.
Closed today buy selling calls at 1.22 and buying puts at 1.47.

78% return in just under 4 months.

1/27/2012 2:05:46 PM

Synthetic long?

1/27/2012 3:05:51 PM

Selling a put and using the proceeds to buy a call at the same price. Basically if you let it expire you'll end up owning the stock at the strike price, for better or for worse. I did very well with a series of ratioed synthetic longs on BP stock as the stock was edging higher after the fuss over the gulf spill died down. I was selling puts and then buying a higher number of calls at a strike price a few dollars higher.

Conversely, you can do a synthetic short by selling naked calls and buying puts.

1/27/2012 3:12:37 PM

Damnit, I'll never understand options.

1/27/2012 3:44:36 PM

^ haha, i'm in the same boat.

List of things BobbyDigital can't wrap his mind around:

1) Options
2) Pivot Tables in Excel

1/27/2012 3:57:56 PM

Quote :

"Selling a put and using the proceeds to buy a call at the same price. Basically if you let it expire you'll end up owning the stock at the strike price, for better or for worse. I did very well with a series of ratioed synthetic longs on BP stock as the stock was edging higher after the fuss over the gulf spill died down. I was selling puts and then buying a higher number of calls at a strike price a few dollars higher. Conversely, you can do a synthetic short by selling naked calls and buying puts."

That might as well have been sanscrit.

1/27/2012 4:10:10 PM

synthetic long is a structure giving you the same risk/reward as longing the stock outright without putting up the money dollar for dollar you would need to if you bought the stock long over whatever defined time period you chose. Since he received more for the put than he spent for the call, his breakeven by expiration would be lower than the strike of the play...

1/27/2012 5:05:07 PM

What Josh is not telling you is that he enterred the trade like a synthetic long but his profit was large because he (likely...or, unintentionally?) exploited higher implied volatility because of the market hysterics last fall and now that market volatility is back to lower levels again he was able to cash in. If you let a synthetic long run to expiration it is no different than having purchased the stock outright.


Look folks, options on the surface are easy.

You buy an option and this gives you the right, but not the obligation, to exercise that option.

You buy a Call option at a certain price (say $10) with a certain expiration (say Jan 2013) gives you the right to buy those shares for $10 any time until the option expires. Stock goes to $20 at any time before your option expires you can buy the shares for $10 (or sale your Call option back into the market).
Buying a Put option gives you the option to sell shares that you own for that strike price. Buy a put for $10, stock goes to 0, sell the shares for $10.

If you sell options you are obligated to the buyer at the strike price before expiration. Sell a Call at $10 then you're obliged to sell shares to the buyer at $10. Stock goes to $20 and you've sold Call options against shares you own (called the covered call) and you have to sell for $10. If you bought them at $8, not a big deal. If you don't own any shares then you have to buy them at the current trading price and sell them at a loss.

Selling a put options obligates you to buy someones shares at whatever strike price. Sell a $10 put, shares go to $0, you have to buy those shares for $10.

Your online broker will handle the closing of positions for you if you are holding in the money options at expiration. If I own stock X and sold Calls on them at $10 and the market closes on expiration Friday at $11. I'll wake up Monday to find a statement crediting the sell of my stock X at $10 + the commission for that transaction (and I've found that my fucking broker will late me close the option out myself on Friday at their $5.95 rate or they'll do it for me automatically for $19. bastards).


If you have those basics you can trade options (but please, study up on time value and implied volatility first).

1/27/2012 6:11:08 PM

Sold MTW today, up 44% from purchase a month and a half ago. Not sure what is going to happen when they report earnings on Wednesday.

1/27/2012 6:59:47 PM

Quote :

"1) Options 2) Pivot Tables in Excel"

2 of my favorite things

Pivots make my world go round (especially when attached to dashboards and macros!)

1/31/2012 9:15:57 AM