Not to say I told you so, but after all the shit people gave me for informing them that Europe was failing over the past few years.




Who's the fear mongerer now?

11/30/2011 2:29:25 AM

no one's going to want reserves of each nation's currency.

11/30/2011 2:41:45 AM

I don't think it is the Euro's fault more than it is the big bank's fault.

11/30/2011 2:52:43 AM

This isn't going to happen. Germany would rather let the ECB print money and get inflated Euros back than to get no Euros back.

11/30/2011 6:29:31 AM

ahhhh, I remember when "smart" people wanted to have an Amero for North America. Dodged a bullet there.

11/30/2011 8:12:21 AM

Wait, were there actually people saying that who weren't just making it up on conservative blogs?

11/30/2011 8:20:06 AM

I personally think it would be a good idea

then we'd get to bail out Mexico every 5 years

11/30/2011 10:03:18 AM

Don't we already bail them out every 10 years?

11/30/2011 10:37:09 AM

Everyone has bailed out their pot dealer at some point.

11/30/2011 11:00:10 AM

Granted, both Finland and Sweden are doing relatively fantastic fiscally, but one is on the Euro and one has its own central bank, guess which one it is?

Quote :

"Don't we already bail them out every 10 years?"

To be fair, we probably wouldn't have to if the War of Drugs wasn't just one giant ongoing bailout of Mexico's crime syndicates

[Edited on November 30, 2011 at 11:43 AM. Reason : .]

11/30/2011 11:42:13 AM

Did you really post this thread on literally the same day every central bank in the world including China's took steps to bail out the Euro?

11/30/2011 11:54:15 AM

Sadly we are going to be borrowing money from china to buy fucking Euros that will probably be worthless in short order. SO then we will just have to pay china back... I bet they are laughing their ass off. They keep giving us the rope to hang ourselves with.

11/30/2011 1:29:56 PM

Currencies should not need to be bailed out. If they do need to be bailed out, then something is majorly fucked up.

11/30/2011 1:46:27 PM

True, but the Euro is just a really weird situation in general.

A good idea, but one that wasn't thought out very well.

I hope it survives, it makes being a tourist in Europe a lot easier.

11/30/2011 1:58:47 PM

Actually, I've been posting about the collapse of the Euro for a few years now.

Now that it's reached the mainstream headlines, I just thought I'd point it out again.

And P.S. China is in no position to be bailing anyone out. They are in serious trouble right now.

Does anyone remember the 2nd part of the equation?

Remember the Euro was going down in 2011/2012.

And the dollar was going to be temporarily buoyed by its collapse until capital is allowed to re-enter Europe.

And that's when we get the dollar collapse. My estimate was 2016. Yippee!!

[Edited on November 30, 2011 at 3:18 PM. Reason : a]

11/30/2011 3:17:55 PM

I just don't fucking get it. Instead of bailing Greece out, they should just use the money to bail out their banks after Greece defaults. Bailing out the banks must be cheaper than bailing out Greece.

This still doesn't answer why Greece must leave the Euro if they don't get a bailout. They default, the rest of Europe bails out their own banks, Greek citizens are poor for awhile, and everything goes back to normal just with Greece paying very high interest rates. Leaving the Euro would allow them to inflate away their debt, which is no different than default to their creditors, so why would that be any easier?

11/30/2011 3:24:30 PM

Quote :

"A good idea, but one that wasn't thought out very well."

11/30/2011 3:40:13 PM

Quote :

"Granted, both Finland and Sweden are doing relatively fantastic fiscally, but one is on the Euro and one has its own central bank, guess which one it is? "

What in the fuck are you trying to prove by posting the 10 year note? That a central bank can manipulate interest rates? You've said both are doing fantastic fiscally...so it seems having a central bank manipulate isn't actually a prerequiste to fix the economy - something you and the rest of your aggregate-ers ilk think is necessary.

You've really contorted yourself here and I'd love to see how you explain this shit.

11/30/2011 6:09:31 PM

I thought he was trying to say that Finland's bond yields are spiking despite their strong economy and low debt, indicating that the Euro is a dying currency and no one wants to touch it. The debt crisis has evolved to the point where solid economies like Finland are having trouble borrowing, which means that investors anticipate a breakup of the Eurozone.

12/1/2011 2:35:14 PM

Finlands rate moves 50 basis points over 2 months to a level that is still 50 basis points lower than it was back when the global economy was "stronger" and you're going to define that as spiking or indicative of some problem?

gtfoh

12/1/2011 5:17:46 PM

You fail to see the trends, and by association the big picture. Bond yields across northern Europe have been going down for months as investors flee the stock market in anticipation of another downturn. German and scandinavian bonds have always been seen as a safe haven, so of course yields are lower than they were 6 months ago, when the outlook was brighter.

Finnish and Swedish bond yields have marched in virtual lockstep for years, but suddenly there is a significant leap in Finnish rates at precisely the time when they should be going down further. The same is true in France, Austria, and Germany to a lesser extent. What changed this month? Investors have begun to factor in the once-ludicrous idea that the Eurozone could fall apart.

[Edited on December 1, 2011 at 10:12 PM. Reason : 2]

12/1/2011 10:10:17 PM

Oh...so now it isn't that they are spiking, but there is a potential trend forming?

12/1/2011 10:23:15 PM

Oh, you're down to bitching about semantics now?

I'm on my phone, but google "Finland bond yields spiking" and you will see that plenty of people besides myself have categorized the November surge as a spike.

12/1/2011 10:32:08 PM

Quote :

"Currencies should not need to be bailed out. If they do need to be bailed out, then something is majorly fucked up."

destroyer your conception of monetary policy never moved past the 17th century so i'm not surprised you're so confounded by this turn of events

12/2/2011 8:58:05 AM

Quote :

"You've said both are doing fantastic fiscally...so it seems having a central bank manipulate isn't actually a prerequiste to fix the economy - something you and the rest of your aggregate-ers ilk think is necessary."

No that's just a strawman you guys have been fighting for months that never existed. Me and my ilk have been saying for years now that monetary policy is mostly useless to fixing a recession caused by a liquidity trap. Sweden and Finland both have extremely robust social safety nets, which are essentially automatic stimulus programs, so their successes speak well to the pointlessness if not dangerous-ness of austerity. One just happens to be doing slightly better in the midst of a currency crisis because they have their own central bank instead of being subject to so many external forces.

[Edited on December 2, 2011 at 9:03 AM. Reason : .]

12/2/2011 9:02:21 AM

Quote :

"destroyer your conception of monetary policy never moved past the 17th century so i'm not surprised you're so confounded by this turn of events"

Oh no thats rich. Lets try to say that we "better understand currency" now and that we have better command of it and Gold is just backwoods....runs to other thread and argues about all the bad things about the state of the US economy but claims currency manipulation isn't one of those contributors

Quote :

"One just happens to be doing slightly better"

Slightly better, eh? Some more of that quality Carnegie Mellon analysis, huh?

[Edited on December 2, 2011 at 6:04 PM. Reason : .]

12/2/2011 6:02:05 PM

Quote :

"destroyer your conception of monetary policy never moved past the 17th century so i'm not surprised you're so confounded by this turn of events"

Do you just pick these time periods at random? I've heard you say I'm stuck in the 17th century and the 18th century, but you've never really bothered to have a discussion about the history of banking and monetary systems. Virtually all deflationary depressions (which is supposed to be the thing we're desperately trying to avoid) have been preceded by expansionary policies on the part of private banks. At multiple points in the 18th, 19th, and 20th century, the government has allowed private banks to suspend the resumption of specie.

Do you understand what that means? It means that depositors were initially told that their notes stood for a certain amount of metal. Then, at some later point, when depositors rightfully began to worry that the banks had overextended, the government stepped and said, "we're allowing the banks to ignore their obligations and issue notes with no actual backing."

I don't know what's going on in your fucked up head that makes this okay. To me, it's fraud. It's not democratic, and that's supposed to be your "thing". It gives power to bankers. It takes power away from individuals. It's such an egregious violation of property rights that I can't understand how this hasn't become a widely discussed issue sooner.

In every single case (except the current one - we'll see how it plays out), these bank note pyramiding schemes have collapsed and we've returned to hard currency. Yes, I know - this time is different. We have a global economy, so hard currencies just don't work. We have to have a banking elite controlling the savings and wages of every person on earth, or it just can't function.

I don't buy it. Governments don't care about us, they don't care about you, and the people controlling the money are basically immune from democratic input. Currency does not need to be enforced by government; people are able to choose their own currency.

[Edited on December 2, 2011 at 6:50 PM. Reason : ]

12/2/2011 6:40:34 PM

Finland bond yields plummeting:

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GFIN10YR:IND/chart

12/3/2011 9:39:25 AM

DOWN TO NEARLY 2.6 % DEAR GOD

Quote :

"Slightly better, eh? Some more of that quality Carnegie Mellon analysis, huh?"

Lol nobody brings up my schooling but you, you know

[Edited on December 4, 2011 at 10:28 PM. Reason : .]

12/4/2011 10:25:42 PM

YOU DIDN'T LISTEN. I AM DISAPPOINT.

12/4/2011 11:31:52 PM

Quote :

"DOWN TO NEARLY 2.6 % DEAR GOD"

~

12/5/2011 4:53:13 PM

Way to go Fed in exchanging for Euros so when it happens we are stuck holding the bag.

12/5/2011 8:01:59 PM

What did I tell you guys? WOOSH. We're getting close now

12/14/2011 4:19:49 PM

Time to revisit Finland and look at how detrimental not being able to print money has been to their borrowing costs

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GFIN10YR:IND/chart

the fuck?!!?! Not detrimental at all? This can't fucking be. The big government modelers told us we need to be able to do this. This can't be right.

12/18/2011 9:48:37 AM