Oh, we back.

For the 6th year running, The Guru has returned! I'm proud to say that participation over the years has stayed high in these threads has stayed high and this is easily my most enjoyable time not only of the sports year, but on TWW as well. I genuinely enjoy all of the nuances of fantasy football and hope to help with any questions that you have.

The Lockout is over and free agency is under way! We'll have to wait and see who goes where, but needless to say, there will be tons of activity over the next few days and weeks.

There's not much time in between now and draft day for our fantasy leagues, which is without a doubt one of the highlights of the season, so lets keep this thread packed full of relevant info that could impact our leagues (trades, additions, subtractions, injuries, weather, depth chart issues and waiver wire gold).

Focusing on what we know now, who's #1 at their position? AP or Foster? Vick or Rodgers? Andre or Roddy or Calvin?

To be fair to everyone, just one ground rule. If someone asks a question, do your best to answer it before posting another question.

Discuss and Good luck! As always, PM me with specific questions, otherwise, post to everyone and get the groups feedback.

- The Guru

7/25/2011 2:34:33 PM

How do you see Favre fitting into Andy Reid's offense?

7/25/2011 2:37:39 PM

Short answer, as a backup. He's a non-factor at this point.

It's Vick's team, and the offense is being catered to Vick this year, instead of Vick catering to the offense. If Favre comes (which I don't think he will), it would be more of a "player coach" and just an extension of Reid but with the ability to speak in "Quarterback language".

7/25/2011 2:39:59 PM

Quote :

"I'm proud to say that participation over the years has stayed high in these threads has stayed high "

English pwnt.

Seriously though in a standard league, who are your top 10 draft picks in order?

7/25/2011 2:45:52 PM

Quote :

"Seriously though in a standard league, who are your top 10 draft picks in order"

thats a loaded question...top 10 is going to be some variation of the top tier RB's with johnson & johnson/white and maybe rogers/vick peppered in, depending on the league.

coming off the championship last year in my keeper league, with Arian Foster/Andre Johnson as my 2011 keepers ....Although I am a little nervous about having 2 keepers from the same team, thoughts for/against this? Also, should I put all my eggs in one basket and go after matt schaub if he presents good value in the mid rounds?

7/25/2011 2:59:04 PM

^ Who else do you have as possible keepers?

7/25/2011 3:02:13 PM

Is Michael Vick a consensus #1 pick this year? 100+ more fantasy points than the 2nd guy in 2010, 16th best rushing stats as a QB - IN 12 GAMES!

7/25/2011 3:09:55 PM

^^^^ God no, stay away from Schuab. I'm sure he will be fine, but that's you will live and die by the Texans. Thats too much risk for me. They play some pretty good defenses this year when you look at the schedule (they play the AFC North this year).

With the top 10 draft, I look at Foster, AP, Charles, Johnson, Rice, McCoy, Andre, Roddy, Calvin, McFadden....but that's my PPR rankings. Standard would look different.

Also, I wouldnt argue with anyone who wanted to take Vick or Rodgers in Rd 1 if their scoring system was favorable.

^ I dont think Vick is a #1 pick, but he's up there.... He wont play a full season, plus, he will be schemed on much better this year than last year.

[Edited on July 25, 2011 at 3:14 PM. Reason : asdf]

7/25/2011 3:12:35 PM

^^^nobody worth keeping, but I can try to trade one or both pre-draft for another keeper.

^^not first overall (I'd actually shy away altogether since he's going so high), but if you do take him high, better invest in a quality backup, since you'll almost certainly be using him at some point during the year.

[Edited on July 25, 2011 at 3:16 PM. Reason : ^]

7/25/2011 3:15:36 PM

If you could start 2 QBs like you start 2 RBs I'd be willing to take a QB 1st overall.

Since you can't, I won't.

7/25/2011 3:23:06 PM

I posted this in the other fantasy football thread and didnt get much of a response, so I'll try in here:

I'm in a keeper league with some other guys from tww. My team went 11-1 last year but I got upset and lost in the finals. Anyways, I was wondering if any of you have experience in keepers leagues. Last year was our first year doing it and we've had some arguments about how we are going to assign keepers, etc.

Right now its setup such that anybody you want to keep is worth two draft picks lower (better) than where you drafted him. Nobody drafted in the first two rounds can be kept. Any free agents are worth a 12th round pick. You can keep up to three players. All new players are entered into a seperate drawing for the top draft spots and everyone else is entered into a drawing for the rest of the spots. If you decide to keep two free agents they will take your 12th and 11th round picks, and any players you acquire via trade will apply to whichever round they were drafted in.

Under that system my keepers will be Michael Vick, Legarrette Blount and Lesean McCoy. Vick and Blount were free agent pick-ups and I got McCoy in a trade, but he fell to the 10th round in last years draft. So Vick will be my 12th round pick, Blount will be my 11th and McCoy will be my 8th. I also took Roddy White in the 3rd round last year, so I could keep him instead of McCoy, Blount or Vick and lose my 1st round pick this year, but I think I'd be better suited to let him go back into the draft pool.

anyone have any suggestions for a different way to set up the league, what have you done in the past?

7/25/2011 3:28:51 PM

I'm in a similar set up, but we tier the penalty across multiple years. First year, its the same round as last year, so you could keep Roddy for a 3rd. But the round penalty increases each season. So next year you'd have to give up a 2, the year after that a 1, and then you wouldn't be able to keep him at all. Also, a 5 year max on all keepers, so someone doesn't get lucky with a young Peterson or Foster and just ride him for the next 10 years.

But in your case, keeping Blounte, Vick and McCoy AND your top seven picks is a no brainer. Roddy White is good, but lets not pretend like he's 2007 Randy Moss.

7/25/2011 3:44:17 PM

thats what I was thinking, I'll just target WRs for my first couple of rounds (unless I land a top 5 pick).

We've had some people who think our system isnt fair since it rewards whoever picked up Vick, Hillis, etc. off the waiver wire last year. How do you guys treat waiver pickups that you want to keep?

I think our system is very fair, even to people who are just joining this season. If we had your system where there isnt a penalty until the 3rd season, I think some of my fellow manager's heads would explode

7/25/2011 3:58:48 PM

Anyone ever actively participated in one of those multi-sport fantasy leagues. Basically like a fantasy dynasty involving all the major fantasy sports? I think it could be fun to start one of those leagues ( Basketball/Baseball/Football) if there was enough interest by serious players.

7/25/2011 5:25:59 PM

Quote :

"How do you see Favre fitting into Andy Reid's offense?"

as much as I'd love to see this as both a Favre fan and an Eagles fan, his agent just said about 15 minutes ago that there have been no talks and he is "retired, period."

7/25/2011 5:40:45 PM

to me i think it was just a joke to me

7/25/2011 5:49:39 PM

I think we all knew this to an extent, but to put in into context like this show you just how fickle running backs can be

Quote :

"running backs who put up a 1,000-yard season since 1983 have only been able to repeat that performance an average of 1.5 times over the remainder of their careers."

7/26/2011 10:32:58 AM

Does anyone have an opinion on ESPN vs. NFL.com?

7/26/2011 4:16:59 PM

Yahoo has made some nice changes this year (auction, trading draft spots, etc).

I'll also go on the record by saying I hate NFL.com's fantasy app. The graph is cool, but not enough.

7/26/2011 5:18:21 PM

I prefer ESPN still, but maybe that's because what I started on.

Ok, I'm in a standard scoring keeper league, keepers take up rounds 1-5, 5 keepers max.

Possible keepers:

Chris Johnson
Michael Turner
Dwayne Bowe

I'm thinking just Johnson and Turner, as they are worth a first and second round pick. Bowe is a little high in the third round I think with the shady Chriefs QB situation. I'd rather go WR/WR in the third and fourth with the pool of released players, or maybe a QB if a great one falls.

Thoughts?

7/27/2011 10:06:43 AM

you're spot on. If you were drafting w/out keepers, CJ would go at the beginning of the 1st, by the time it came back to you, Turner would already be gone.

Keep them both and move on. You could get Bowe in the 5th or 6th. I'd target a Wallace/Jennings/Fitz/Wayne type WR. I've seen all of them lingering around the end of 2nd, start of 3rd round.

- The Guru

7/27/2011 10:13:28 AM

Do you prefer a 3WR league or 2WR league (both leagues have flex spot still). In my opinon the extra WR spots adds a little more to a 12 team league, but I was wondering what everyeone else thinks?

7/27/2011 10:29:54 AM

I prefer 2 if there's a flex spot

[Edited on July 27, 2011 at 10:41 AM. Reason : ]

7/27/2011 10:40:37 AM

What's a creative way to determine draft order?

7/27/2011 5:41:25 PM

^^ I like 3 WR's. Much deeper and challenging. Makes the Malcom Floyds, Devon Bess and J-Cotch's of the world relevant in fantasy land.

^ This is going to sound crazy, but this is how we've determined the draft order in my money league for the past 10 years and have never changed because of the drama.

Step 1: All members are together for the draft order cookout party. We all bring something to grill and there is plenty of beer on tap.

Step 2: There are 10 cards. These cards represent Ace through 10 (10 spots). The cards are shuffled and placed face down.

Step 3: Everyone comes up and grabs a card. At that point they have a "number". This number IS NOT their draft number.

Step 4: I take an old Bingo basket that was purchased on the cheap years and years ago and place 10 bingo balls, labeled 1-10 in the basket.

Step 5: I spin the basket and start with the number 10 pick. If the number "7" comes out, then the person who has the 7 Card gets the 10th overall pick. They then have to go and put there name on the draft board in that position.

This continues all the way down to the first pick. We've added in the ability to trade picks, which involves having to chug beers, etc... but it's a shit load of fun and it's dirt cheap to do. Much better than doing something like randomizer.com to spit out an order.

Just an idea, but our league loves it. We actually have a legit waiting list to get in the league because of all of the fun we have at our live draft, mandatory week 6 cookout, mandatory week 13 bar squat (We rent out a space at Blinco's and sit there all day to watch who makes the playoffs and who doesn't). Hope this helps.

- The Guru


[Edited on July 27, 2011 at 6:12 PM. Reason : asdf]

7/27/2011 6:10:22 PM

Ocho moving to NE is actually a pretty big move. He's got plenty of gas in the tank and with Ocho, Welker, Branch, and Tate...this is a pretty damn good WR core. He'll be hit and miss week to week, especially with gronkowski and hernandez getting tons of looks at TE.

If anything, this, in my opinion, makes Tom Brady arguably a lock for the #3 QB this year. I put him slightly ahead of Brees.

7/28/2011 10:07:46 PM

Who is one and two?

7/28/2011 11:13:55 PM

I'd assume Rodgers and Vick

7/28/2011 11:14:46 PM

Yes, that's correct.

7/28/2011 11:17:07 PM

Why Rogers over Brady? Just curious...

7/29/2011 1:02:23 AM

kinda the same reason as Vick, more rushing yard/TD upside, while still being able to pass plenty

me personally, i think Vick might have the highest fantasy points per game average, but i think he misses at least 3-4 games from injury based on his style of play

Brady is probably one of the safer QB choices

7/29/2011 1:05:10 AM

I personally think Matt Ryan is going to be awesome this year in fantasy.

7/29/2011 1:10:53 AM

Our keeper league is looking to change from 4 points per QB TD to 6.

Any thoughts? What are most of your leagues at for scoring QB TDs?

8/1/2011 10:21:14 AM

We went from 6-point QB TDs to 4 because the league was so QB heavy. If it does go to 6 make sure you get a top-tier, first round quarterback. If you think about it, QBs probably average 2-3 TDs a game...how many RBs/WRs get that?

8/1/2011 11:17:02 AM

^ I like 6 but adjust INT as well to -3. Also like to add a -1 for taking sacks.

8/1/2011 11:17:28 AM

is Kevin Kolb worth a damn? he's in a decent situation in Arizona, but has he done much to warrant the attention he seems to be getting?

is Tarvaris Jakson worth a damn?

what about Alex Smith?

8/1/2011 11:21:28 AM

Kolb probably has the biggest boom or bust potential in all of fantasy this year. I'd hesitate to take him as my starter, but he should be a strong backup and bye week fill in, especially with all those juicy matchups in the NFC West.

No

No

8/1/2011 11:23:29 AM

Anyone have any links to 16-team mock drafts?? The highest number I can find is 14.

8/1/2011 3:57:48 PM

Quote :

"What's a creative way to determine draft order?"

This year we're doing "Royal Rumble" rules.

IE, nobody knows whose pick is where. We're all picking a theme song for our team, putting it on a playlist, and then hitting shuffle.

The person who has theme song that plays first has the first pick... and so on, until the end of the 1st round. Then we've got our order set. It's going to be chaotic and exciting - and impossible to prepare for - but it should be a lot of fun.

8/1/2011 4:07:39 PM

^^Do you have a link for the 14 team mock draft?

8/1/2011 9:04:03 PM

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/

8/2/2011 12:36:07 PM

^^^ Excellent. Consider me stealing this idea as flattery.

8/2/2011 1:21:47 PM

I'm in a random draft order league, but never done it with the Royal Rumble theme songs, haha, do like that twist. It's interesting being in that league because you find out an hour before the draft what number you are, so fairly hard to develop much of a strategy prior to it.

8/2/2011 1:36:37 PM

I think San Diego's D could be a steal this year as low as it's rated on that fantasy calculator.

[Edited on August 2, 2011 at 1:45 PM. Reason : If they fix special teams]

8/2/2011 1:44:55 PM

so how much of a bump does fitzgerald get with kolb....he was looking like a borderline 2/3 rounder with a wasteland at QB....1st rounder now?

with the 'royal rumble', do you have until the song ends to pick 1st round or what? Sounds fun.

[Edited on August 2, 2011 at 2:48 PM. Reason : .]

8/2/2011 2:45:24 PM

It really depends on how much you love Kolb. But even with the most optimistic projections, I'd hesitate to take him in the first round.

Give me a slightly lesser talent with a better QB like White, Johnson or Nicks before Fitz.

8/2/2011 2:50:37 PM

Ronnie Brown better stay the hell away from McCoy's carries. I was planning on him being beastly this year.

8/3/2011 8:36:35 PM

wheres Desean Jackson on your WR board, oh great Guru

8/4/2011 9:23:56 PM

I love him. He's a dynamic player that is still very young (still in his rookie contract) and benefits so much from the ability of Vick to extend plays.

He will end his lockout and likely have a deal restructured as he's about to start getting fined $30k per day if he doesnt show up to camp. In standard scoring leagues, he's my number 5 WR behind Andre, Calvin, Fitz and Roddy. While not as consistent as Wayne, he's got more upside than Wayne (at this point in his career) and Jennings (especially if Finley stays healthy for GB).

Overall, DJax is a great pick and I've seen him fall as far as the mid 3rd rd in 10 team formats and early 3rd in 12 teams. A steal for those who get him that late.

- The Guru

8/5/2011 11:25:46 PM

In a 16 team league that has 3 RB/WR and 2 WR/TE slots for maximum flexibility with lineups. 1/2 PPR. Bonus points for milestones (300 yards passing, 100 yards rushing/receiving) Considering the larger amount of teams, what would your draft strategy be?

8/5/2011 11:35:01 PM