I have just a few off the bat based on looking at the polls and early vote demographics.

NC goes Obama. Latest poll data by SurveyUSA - a firm that I trust - has McCain ahead by 1. This is consistent with other polling. Yet, crosstabs place African American voting percentage at 20%.

As of Saturaday with 2.5M ballots cast the black share of the electorate was 26.5% Perhaps, McCain can widdle that down to 20% but there were only a little over 3M ballots cast last time so he needs an enormous boost in turnout to do that.

Similiar story in Georgia where black share of the electorate in Georgia is current 35%, up from 25% in 2004. McCain is up by seven in SuveyUSA's Georgia poll with black turnout pegged at 26%. Again unless McCain can get those black turnout numbers down he is going to loose Georgia. Yes Georgia.

Given NC and Georgia it would seem that Obama has a virtual lock on Virginia.

11/4/2008 8:59:18 AM

black people dont be votin and shit

11/4/2008 9:02:16 AM