For some time my concern has been that we cannot be looking at a bottom because we are yet to see Alt-A mortgages, Commercial Real Estate and Consumer Credit collapse.

The suggestion that we could move through all of this without a generalized collapse in credit was for me highly untenable. We were just waiting to see those shoes drop. Now they appear to be dropping. CRE is contracting, Alt-A is blowing up and conusmer credit is tightening.






The silver lining is that I think bottom talk will become increasingly realistic over the next quarter or so.

8/12/2008 11:44:32 AM

sorry i don't speak Chinese

8/12/2008 12:24:25 PM

8/12/2008 12:30:53 PM

I thought this thread was about Homos.

8/12/2008 12:32:12 PM

they say a bottomless hole would lead to china...

8/12/2008 12:33:58 PM

^^

8/12/2008 1:49:55 PM

My favorite graph right now:



lol at the little blue line

8/12/2008 5:34:37 PM

don't worry its turning around. Oil prices are dropping and the value of the Euro is dropping compared to the Dollar.

8/12/2008 6:04:57 PM

I thought this thread was about Homos.

8/12/2008 6:17:55 PM

^^it is coming around but still way too high

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?from=EUR&to=USD&amt=1&t=5y

Good for me though, UK and Euro people buy my stuff rather than European stuff cause it's so cheap!

[Edited on August 12, 2008 at 6:23 PM. Reason : d]

8/12/2008 6:21:24 PM

^^

haha I meant for this to be in Soap Box

8/12/2008 7:18:57 PM

1. Which bottom? The credit bottom? the economy overall? The housing crisis? I'll assume on "overall" bottom here.
2. That said- different bottoms will happen in different locations at different times. Some areas of the country will lag behind others in getting there. For the nation as a whole- I dont think we're at the bottom of everything yet - for a variety of reasons.
- As you mentioned the other shoes aren't finished dropping. There are a lot of mortgages everyone knows are bad that aren't due to reset and get themselves in trouble untill late 2008 or in 2009.
- All of the losses from all of this and other poor decisions have not been written off the books of all the banks and financial institutions. Nor are they all going to be in financially worthy condition when it's done. There will be fall out from this that hasn't happened yet. the FDIC does not have reserves for 100% of what they insure (which makes sense), if enough large institutions already in trouble fail there will be some nasty consequences here. (I am not saying this will happen, but the possibility is still there). I will find the #s that support this if someone needs me to.
- We're starting to see some global downturn and as such the job market is contracting. I do not believe that the US is done with lays offs- and more people being laid off and less people buying enhance each other.
- The financial institutions which do survive this (I would definately say most of them), are going to be a lot more restrictive about giving out credit no matter what the Fed does for a LONG time. Not to mention increased penalties and fees on consumers. I would bet money you will NOT see the kind of credit-driven consumerism that we have in recent years again in our lifetime. This affects less when we hit the bottom and more how we come out of it. It's going to be a while before anyone who actually NEEDS credit will be able to get it at anything but ridiculous terms.

The other thing I think that is worth mentioning here is - don't confuse hitting the bottom with getting out of it. We may be close to hitting it (I personally think we're not there but we are getting towards it) - but I don't think we're anywhere near crawling out of it on an overall front.


* disclaimer - not a financial person- just a person who reads a LOT of financial stuff.

[Edited on August 13, 2008 at 3:55 PM. Reason : .]

8/13/2008 3:54:53 PM

the dollar might be dropping in value

good thing i still own all of this photos/00104727.jpg

almost all of it (i sold the cross)

[Edited on August 13, 2008 at 4:24 PM. Reason : .]

8/13/2008 4:23:47 PM

NOW IS THE TIME TO SELL GOLD

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C21v5Sxm0Zo

* disclaimer - not a financial person- just a person who watches a LOT of financial stuff.

[Edited on August 13, 2008 at 4:41 PM. Reason : a]

8/13/2008 4:41:04 PM

i know when i bought most of that it was around $400/oz and now its roughly double that...I'm sitting tight for the time being

8/13/2008 4:49:10 PM