Apple is clearly riding high right now, almost can't lose. What event or product will eventually be their downfall, bringing them back down to normal (or even worse, like mid to late 90's)? Do you think it could be a failure in their product line, a corporate fall (like a lawsuit/scandal), straying from their "vision" (like from Jobs leaving), or even a competitor making a superior product? Hell, you might think the reign supreme until God lets them release iRapture.

We were throwing around hypotheticals like this at work today, and I wondered what everyone thought... just for shits and giggles.

8/9/2007 12:51:18 AM

Wouldn't a downfall technically be worse than the mid 90s?


And steve jobs retiring.

8/9/2007 12:54:51 AM

well, jobs has got about 5-10 years left maybe?

on the music side, the industry continues to evolve as drm churns through the masses. so they face that challenge on the consumer side, and they also face pressures from the labels. Universal's recent posturing shows that the labels are tired of Jobs doing whatever the heck he wants.

on the computer side, they have done a great job since the intel switch and i don't see that slowing down anytime soon. i do wonder what their strategy is (if any) for entering developing markets. linux and even windows are dominating that right now and apple doesn't seem to care about the couple millions of people who are buying their first computer. then there is the business sector, who they haven't made too much progress with. but on the other hand, maybe they don't care about increasing their market share in this area. they could be perfectly happy aiming for 10-20% of the market.

the delays with Leopard have me concerned that they are spreading themselves too thin. launching the iphone and entering an entirely new market had a lot to do with that of course. which reminds me, does anybody know what the margins are on ipods vs mp3s vs computers vs software vs cell phones? what was their motivation for getting into the cell phone industry anyways? managing their personnel and not letting the company become unwieldy might be their hardest challenge

[Edited on August 9, 2007 at 1:21 AM. Reason : .]

8/9/2007 1:03:18 AM

Quote :

"Wouldn't a downfall technically be worse than the mid 90s?"

Meant downfall more in the sense of a sudden loss of rank/reputation, not as complete ruin.

8/9/2007 1:10:27 AM

I'm waiting on Apple to create a gaming system

8/9/2007 1:19:50 AM

Quote :

"ipods vs mp3s vs computers vs software vs cell phones"

ipods are like 13-25%

computers are like 5%

software is upwards of 90%

cell phones are like 20-30%

Their downfall is that they are only going to be able to sustain the planned obscelescence (sp?) business model for a few more iterations with the iPod and iPhone. Eventually the iPod is going to be eliminated. and there is only so much you can do to get people to chuck and buy another "it already does everything" device. Market saturation is almost complete for the iPod, and the iPhone has a very small market potential because of it's price point and carrier restrictions.

They can't rely on hardware sales outside of these consumer devices, it's what has nearly bankrupted the company several times. Right now the hardware is merely a part of the user experience supporting the iPod lifestyle. They dont have the market share or market growth or margins to rely on that.

I still think (and have said this many times) the ultimate windfall for Apple is when they announce OSX as an open platform operating system.

8/9/2007 1:30:12 AM

Quote :

"I'm waiting on Apple to create a gaming system"

I think they already tried back in the 90's. Hahah

8/9/2007 3:23:51 AM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Pippin

The Apple Pippin!

8/9/2007 5:09:25 AM

I agree that iPod/iPhone/(other neat apple techtoys) sales can only take apple so far, but I think the ultimate area of growth lies in computer sales. Right now, the home computer market share is about 7.6%. That's good enough for 4th place among all manufacturers, but realistically, when you look at market share the important comparison is not Apple vs. Dell vs. HPQ vs. Gateway, vs. (insert PC mfr here). It's Apple vs. Wintel.

So with 7.6% of the market share for consumers, there's a LOT of room to grow. I see iPods, iPhones, and other gadgetry as ultimately a way to catalyze the halo effect to boost computer sales. Releasing quintessential apps such as iTunes and Safari for windows is, imo, another way that apple is giving windows users a taste of what apple has to offer (although their execution, especially with the windows safari 3.0 beta is a head-scratcher). I see a lot of growth in market share going forward.

Another interesting area is corporate marketshare. I couldn't find any numbers, but I'll contend that apple has much less than 7% of this market. Most corporate IT departments are windows only and in the near term I don't see this changing. At Cisco, IT does not support Macs but we have about 4000 Mac users that are self supported, and in a lot of cases, self-funded (IOW, many of us purchase our own Mac laptops for work use). I think it will be another 5-10 years before Apple can be a serious contender in the corporate world. Technically and functionally, Apple is there today, but from a capital and operational expenditure standpoint it's not economically feasible in the near future.

8/9/2007 6:36:33 AM

Quote :

"I'm waiting on Apple to create a gaming system"

Although I could see them trying [again], it would be REALLY tough for it to be successful. Given how popular the Wii is and how much competition is going on between it, the PS3, and the 360, I could see a newcomer completely getting destroyed.

8/9/2007 9:47:59 AM

jaguar anyone?

3do?


actually not sure what could fubar this time.... jobs leaving and / or not leaving behind someone or a team that can adequately guide the company is probably the biggest single looming thing...

8/9/2007 1:15:24 PM

Quote :

"Although I could see them trying [again], it would be REALLY tough for it to be successful. Given how popular the Wii is and how much competition is going on between it, the PS3, and the 360, I could see a newcomer completely getting destroyed."

I can see your train of thought but I think they're aware of just how enormous the competition is and that its a venture that is bound to lose money for years off the bat. They can just look at how much of a money and resource drain the X-Box is on Microsoft. And yes, a newcomer would be destroyed.

8/9/2007 2:05:03 PM

Quote :

"jaguar anyone? 3do?"

all companies are going to have non-successful, bad, or flop products. The mark (or, one mark) of a good company, though, is to work though those and go on to create other great products and remain successful.
I mean, nobody would characterize Microsoft as a failure just because the Zune sucks.

8/9/2007 2:06:37 PM

^heh

8/9/2007 2:27:26 PM

i dont think apple has the resources to make a gaming system.

I think their real chacne of sucess is outside of comptuers, and siwhc to consumer electronics. You could have a whole I life experience

Apple TVS think more like Apple = Sony, rather than Apple = Microsoft, its not going to happen, not ever.

8/9/2007 2:30:26 PM

lol i was using them as examples that got destroyed

8/9/2007 2:51:47 PM

What if Apple teams up with Nintendo to create a new system....it'd be MADNESS...or would it be SPARTA!!!!!!!

8/9/2007 2:53:15 PM

Not only the existing competition, but Apple has never been about gaming anyway...go check out the Mac video game section at Best Buy...

8/9/2007 3:11:54 PM

^they're finally getting into the market though.

http://pc.gamespy.com/pc/id-tech-5-project/810525p1.html

Quote :

"The point of the row of monitors is quickly explained: it's the new idTech5 demo running parallel on a Mac, PC, Xbox 360 and PS3, and it's hard to notice any differences between any of them. But before getting into the tech, we move to the PC box, where we boot up a special trailer for id Software's new game: Rage."

Some of the newer games are coming out for apple w/o a release delay like usual. So that's a step in the right direction.

8/9/2007 3:14:57 PM

Well nwo the apple and pc hardware is the same thigs shoudl be easier, just a matter of them providng some sorta DX like framwork..methinks

8/9/2007 5:07:57 PM

Quote :

"What if Apple teams up with Nintendo to create a new system....it'd be MADNESS...or would it be SPARTA!!!!!!!"

I chuckled.

8/9/2007 9:30:13 PM

someone find my a damn virtual boy to buy

8/9/2007 9:31:59 PM

Quote :

"I think their real chacne of sucess is outside of comptuers, and siwhc to consumer electronics. You could have a whole I life experience Apple TVS think more like Apple = Sony, rather than Apple = Microsoft, its not going to happen, not ever. "

I mostly agree. I think the whole iPhone/iPod/AppleTV thing is partially about Steve setting up a contingency for Apple to fall back on if they completely fail in the computer market after he leaves. It's a lot easier for a non-Steve to run a CE company than a marginalized computer company. Plus, it's very likely IF (and I personally don't think it will) OS X on the desktop fails, OS X will live on in the iPhone/iPod/AppleTV which the iPhone and AppleTV currently run variants of OS X and supposedly the iPod is the next in line. I still don't feel Apple is completely on course though, and Jobs leaving or dying, God forbid, would really be the worse thing for the company. Not to mention for the CE industry in general.

As a "graybeard" Apple user though, I still can't accept how amazingly successful the iPod is, I still view it in my mind as a niche device like my Mac, because the same design principles exist in both products. Because of this, I always feel that it's teetering on the edge of failure, when the reality is that it's well entrenched now, and Apple SHOULD see any iPod recessions coming from a mile away. Plus, Apple is making plenty more money than they ever have, by a wide margin, Mac OS growth in the US is also very healthy, and the reason for these things are very apparent. There's no good reason to speculate on the basis that Apple is about to fail miserably. It's like asking when is Google going to fail.

8/10/2007 1:01:35 AM

Cool, a Financial speculation thread in tech talk.

8/10/2007 10:30:46 AM

bump

6/5/2009 1:40:53 AM

This thread is a great example why people are posting here and not making mad bank elsewhere.


Steve jobs dying is still the biggest threat.

[Edited on June 5, 2009 at 2:07 AM. Reason : .]

6/5/2009 2:07:38 AM

as far as im aware they havent released anything new in a while. it seems like its been longer than normal for them. that could be a sign of something bad perhaps

6/5/2009 9:14:29 AM

^...WWDC is in three days

6/5/2009 9:16:20 AM

ahh okay. i changed my dish network package and no longer get g4. thats how i used to keep up with that stuff

6/5/2009 9:22:08 AM

once steve jobs kicks over in a few months apple stock will plummit and the company will return to 90s era irrelevence.

The biggest problem for apple moving into the living room will come from Microsoft. If Microsoft ever gets their heads out of their asses and realizes the potential of combining the 360-as-media-center concept with a not-shitty version of windows mobile then they'd be able to take back some of the mobile market. Apple would be forced to jump on Microsoft's platform (protocol wise, not os wise) or face becoming that company that makes those devices that dont work with my stuff like they were in the 90s.

6/5/2009 10:05:56 AM

I didn't realize until 2 days ago that G4 had continues E3 Live coverage... fail.

And why are we counting out Apple computers? I mean desktops is one thing but laptops is another. I have yet to find a PC/non-OS laptop that has the design or aesthetics of an Apple laptop especially with the unibodies now. I wouldn't count those out just yet. Combine that with OS X and you really can't lose.

[Edited on June 5, 2009 at 10:18 AM. Reason : .]

6/5/2009 10:15:34 AM

Quote :

"This thread is a great example why people are posting here and not making mad bank elsewhere. "

wat?

6/5/2009 11:08:56 AM

yeah i had no idea what that meant either

6/5/2009 11:10:34 AM

^^^i used to think pretty highly of mac laptops. but girlfriend has had a macbook for a couple of years and it's basically a piece of crap. it's falling apart at two years old. i guess the macbook pros might have a higher build quality, but the regular macbook that she bought has convinced me to not waste my money. i'll get a thinkpad or something instead.

6/5/2009 11:22:56 AM

^I've only ever had macbook pro's as far as apple laptops and i have never had a problem with them 'falling apart'. By far the most solid built laptops i've owned. Can't say the same for thinkpads though But anyway...now that won't be a problem since macbooks have the same quality and design as MBP.

6/5/2009 11:27:41 AM

i agree. my wife has a late 07 macbook (the white one) and we've had to have the case replaced like 3 times because of cracks, which has been disappointing. didn't stop me from buying a unibody MBP in january though, which is obviously much less prone (so far) to those types of problems

6/5/2009 11:28:15 AM

Yeah, I can see how the old macbook's would fall apart. I never liked them...always thought they looked shitty and cheap quality.

6/5/2009 11:29:54 AM

my wife's white MacBook is going on 3 years, and it's still solid. She is not easy on it, either, and throws it in her backpack every day to and from her teaching job

6/5/2009 11:38:12 AM

This thread makes me want to sell my AAPL stock

6/5/2009 11:48:58 AM

^now wouldn't be too bad. it's one of the many stocks have already recovered from the "recession"

6/5/2009 1:50:21 PM

I'll probably wait for a bit....I don't think apple will struggle.

Quote :

"The past five months without Mr. Jobs have given investors confidence that Apple can run smoothly without him. Apple's shares have risen 68% since Mr. Jobs announced his leave Jan. 14, compared with a 24% increase in the Nasdaq Composite Index over that period"

6/5/2009 1:54:35 PM

I see plenty of upside to both Apple the company and the stock, as such I'm holding on for a while (and have pretty much done so for the past two years).

6/5/2009 2:56:20 PM

I don't really see Apple going downhill anytime soon. If they get greedy and over-expand by spending their capital foolishly, then they deserve failure, but that just isn't like the company. Even if they didn't do anything new at all for the next few years and just continued to release their current products, they would still be profitable.

6/5/2009 4:24:43 PM

Quote :

"Steve jobs dying is still the biggest threat."

Agree with this.

Even if the company manages to continue to release successful products, they'll still take a big hit in the market (at least short-term) because of the way his image is linked to them.

6/5/2009 7:23:13 PM

If they figure out how to create an iphone like experience (simplicity) with the power/market share of their devices its on.

The bb storm is a joke though.

6/6/2009 12:12:56 AM

man, so much doom and gloom for the iPod line. people have been saying its the end of the line for years now. those iPod guys are top notch, and there will always be a healthy market for folks who want high quality media player that doesn't have a cellular radio in it.

6/6/2009 4:12:19 AM

^That plus there will always be people that refuse to use AT&T so can't buy an iphone (without paying $600 or whatever it is)

6/6/2009 11:00:31 AM

i think it was pretty brilliant how they transitioned from the classic ipod to the ipod touch. like everybody has already said, for years people were predicting that market saturation of the ipod would eventually kill the planned obsolescence business model. so to offset that, it was obvious for apple to develop an ipod+phone device to create that third market segment to cushion apple when growth in the ipod line started to top off. but of course in doing that, everyone expected releasing an iPhone would basically guarantee the cannibalization of ipod sales. but the ipod touch is such a step up from the older ipod models that even if you had the top of the line ipod, if you didn't want to switch to AT&T, you were able to get an almost equivalent ipod touch, and thus be hooked into a new era of obsolescencability

6/6/2009 11:46:27 AM

Quote :

"it seems like its been longer than normal for them. that could be a sign of something bad perhaps"

It is a sign of something bad. The recession! They'd be silly to get their engineering team rolling hardcore on a new product release that would coincide with the highest level of unemployment since 1983. They probably have products that they're cooking up as we speak, but they're holding them off of the market until things look like they're well on the upswing again. Maybe the middle of next year, or early winter?

Quote :

"I've only ever had macbook pro's as far as apple laptops and i have never had a problem with them 'falling apart'. By far the most solid built laptops i've owned."

The one we used as a trainer/loaner at the bookstore was nice and well built. It also had a habit of toasting your lap/penis though.

Macbooks are also pieces of shit. Cheap plastic consumer-grade devices that cost far too much.

6/6/2009 1:29:05 PM

- They are releasing products this month
- I'm fairly certain that all the mac laptops are metal unibodies
- All laptops have a higher failure rate than desktops
- Personal anecdotes aside, surveys and studies show that apple's laptops are near the top in reliability and
- Apple owns all others in terms of customer support
- There were some laptop models that were more prone to problems than others for various reasons. That's why they innovated and tried the unibody
- Laptops are dominating desktops, apple's laptops are increasingly popular

[Edited on June 6, 2009 at 2:20 PM. Reason : .]

6/6/2009 2:19:38 PM