We've had one of these before, but with the dems campaigning on this issue, and with it seemingly having such a large public support, I was recently thinking about this.Our resident economics superstar Lonesnark has always insisted that it's bad for the economy, and because of this I couldn't fully support it.But, it does seem like it would more of a good thing.Oregon has the most liberal minimum wage laws in the country right now (I think...), and if you look for studies to see this effect, the first hit in Google is one from the EPI: http://www.epionline.org/study_detail.cfm?sid=22I read this, but it was so obviously negatively biased against the hike, and spun in a disingenuous way, it was almost sickening. But, if you scroll down to the bottom, where they report the raw numbers, it does look like overall, it's a good thing.Does it cause job loss? Yes, but it's a fairly small number (less than 4% of all the affected workers). Also, it does seem that a large group are in fact teenagers and people living with their parents, who don't really need a hike to live, but by far the largest group, a plurality (almost 50%), was people in households making less than $20k/year, and i'm sure these people COULD use the boost in wage. It seems to me, the loss in jobs is worth the big gains for the lowest income workers.This article is more recent than the EPI "study": http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB116250968954211912-ulbQAzJn_bfqr5q1NjAS2gGurCU_20071102.htmlAnd it basically reaches the same conclusions I did. There are some issues (particularly with agriculture), but overall Oregon isn't suffering economically from this. It seems the stabilizing factor is that the people this laws benefit are the same people that will have to use the money they are making to buy stuff from the local market. They can't afford to invest it, and they can't afford to travel with it, so it stays around the local area, and helps to offset the increase the businesses are paying to their employees.
1/8/2007 1:22:17 AM
1/8/2007 1:24:21 AM
we discussed this in the "democrats back at it" thread[Edited on January 8, 2007 at 1:33 AM. Reason : .]
1/8/2007 1:28:13 AM
What about upward pressure on wages in the US economy overall? Think about this: If the minimum--the floor--of wages is higher, then workers earning more than the minimum are moved closer to that floor. Those workers--particularly workers that are represented in collective bargaining--will in turn demand higher wages. Thus, retail costs--and even costs of capital goods--will likely rise, which would obviously create the potential for cooling of the economy.I will say that--because the minimum wage has not been raised since the Clinton years and many of the lower-end jobs at issue cannot be outsourced--I DO NOT think this particular increase will very damaging to our economy. Some employers will trade up for their money by hiring workers with more skills, but I think this will have a minimal effect.I, too, am interested in what LoneSnark has to say on the subject. I don't have his level of education or experience with economics--or his charts! [Edited on January 8, 2007 at 1:51 AM. Reason : .]
1/8/2007 1:49:17 AM
^That seems to be mere speculation though.What bugs me is that people are speculating that kind of thing, but when you look at real-world situations, it is never as bad as they say.I'm mostly looking for more information, or better analysis of the data. If what I believe is wrong, why is it wrong?Union workers are generally a good ways a way in terms of wage from the minimum earners.And the national retail chains won't have a problem paying the wage increase, because for them, it's an insignificant expense.It's the small businesses and local restaurants where the price is passed on to the consumer, but according to that second link I posted, people seem to be willing to pay this price (and this may be a result of the fact that they too are being paid more).The fact is that Oregon hasn't fallen in to economic chaos as a result of the increase. Consumer prices haven't skyrocketed, and businesses haven't shut down. To the contrary, things are going well for them.The biggest area, as I mentioned, that does seem to be suffering is the smaller and mid-sized farms.
1/8/2007 1:56:37 AM
Historically, moron, what I have posted actually happens--it is NOT simply speculation. In addition, I hold a BS in business administration, and I'll wager that I know more about economics than the average person. That said, did you notice the part of the post in which I clearly indicated that I DO NOT think the raise will be very damaging? I didn't mention this, but I don't think the raise will help very much those workers that it is supposedly intended to help, either.PS: One more thing, all this is made possible by a "solid if not spectacular" (NPR) US economy. The report referenced Q4 '06.[Edited on January 8, 2007 at 2:24 AM. Reason : .]
1/8/2007 2:08:50 AM
Historically, when has the cost of goods in general risen due to a forced increase in wages?I've already acknowledged the restaurant and agriculture rise, but I can't see places like Wal-mart or Best Buy raising prices, not because they can afford it (which they can), but because they won't need to, because most of their employees make a good amount above minimum wage as it is. And the ones that are lower on the ladder are the kids that don't care.
1/8/2007 2:23:27 AM
^ Damn, man! I NEVER said it was a one-to-one effect! I said it was "upward pressure," which pops through in the economy here and there. Hell, you acknowledged as much yourself ("restaurant and agriculture rise"). And add to that list groups of workers that collectively bargain. Don't kid yourself, the labor unions have been pushing, lobbying, and throwing around major money to raise the minimum wage for years. THEY are the prime mover of this legislation. Think about it: Who has more money for lobbying Congress, poor people or labor unions?
1/8/2007 2:33:08 AM
Why do you keep bringing up the unions?It doesn't matter if they are the prime motivators, OF COURSE they're going to push stuff that benefits them (just like congress votes itself a pay raise). The majority of groups WOULDN'T vote against the pay raise for themselves.And I didn't say you said it was a one-to-one comparison. You said that there's historical evidence, and I wanted to know WHAT historical evidence. I assume you're not just saying that to try and trick me. So, WHAT historical evidence were you talking about?
1/8/2007 2:36:30 AM
It never ceases to amaze me that this discussion always immediately deteriorates into cost-benefit analysis on the effect of minimum wages.By arguing this way, both sides implicitly agree on the most important aspect of it - that the government has the right to fix prices between private parties in a transaction.It's my labor and I should have the right to sell it as I see fit. Any other arrangement takes away from my rights as an individual, as well as those of my potential employer.How can we call it freedom when the threat of force is used to ensure that transactions are at a 'just' or 'fair' price determined by an outside, third party?
1/8/2007 3:51:35 AM
^
1/8/2007 4:05:23 AM
Well, that's a short discussion.The federal minimum wage is $5.15, though higher in some states that mandate more.
1/8/2007 4:08:26 AM
^^^^
1/8/2007 4:08:28 AM
^^ And it's a good point against a minimum wage. Hell, if seven or eight dollars is good, why not ten or fifteen dollars? Because even some of the moonbats know that it would hurt the economy--just as some argue the current minimum wage does.
1/8/2007 4:11:54 AM
hahahahaha, I wasn't even arguing anythiing.I was getting on point with what you said the discussion was. You said the discussion was about what is, not what should be. So I mentioned to everyone what is. And, as shown, that's a short discussion.Then you continue to argue, in every post, what should be.
1/8/2007 4:14:43 AM
^ GODDAMMIT! I was trying to agree with you! Fuck it.
1/8/2007 4:40:37 AM
1/8/2007 9:18:50 AM
1/8/2007 11:07:30 AM
^ agree, over that single person 12k mark taxes take an immediate large chunk... (20-25% state and federal combined)
1/8/2007 12:58:24 PM
dude, the minimum wage has been 5.15 since 1997 or some shit. 5 dollars isn't what it used to be. You can't buy shit on that wage. It's about time they raised that shit. I remember getting paychecks in high school a few years back that couldn't afford much more than gasoline because it was so fucking expensive.
1/8/2007 1:30:46 PM
raising min wage still isnt going to do anything to force companies like walmart to give their employees any benefits
1/8/2007 1:53:02 PM
Why is Walmart always the easy target?Just as many companies are as bloodthirsty but it's just that Walmart came out on top.
1/8/2007 1:56:18 PM
1/8/2007 2:08:47 PM
1/8/2007 2:27:19 PM
1/8/2007 3:09:48 PM
^ correct they should give benefits...
1/8/2007 3:13:31 PM
1/8/2007 3:21:37 PM
^ again agree, the best government is one not too involved.... imho
1/8/2007 3:22:50 PM
1/8/2007 4:19:15 PM
unless it was raised to such a point where people could work 40 hours and afford to live instead of 60 hours per week.now, there are a lot of assumptions in that comment that Lone wont agree with, but it is possible.
1/8/2007 5:48:22 PM
^x5 Concerning the loss of health-care and even some other benefits, that is the trend. Some argue that businesses should not provide health-care and retirement benefits, that those services should be purchased by individuals (or groups of individuals) in the market. I mean, you don't ask your employer to pay your car insurance, why do you ask your employer to pay your medical insurance? Answer: Tradition, mostly, and competition for workers.
1/8/2007 6:54:12 PM
my employer pays for my car and medical insurance (with deductible of course)ftw[Edited on January 8, 2007 at 7:02 PM. Reason : .]
1/8/2007 7:02:03 PM
^ Great negotiation.
1/8/2007 7:06:43 PM
then again i have a college degree and have certain skills; i dont work at friggin walmart
1/8/2007 7:09:31 PM
1/8/2007 7:50:16 PM
^Reagan was wrong about everything else. Why do we assume he was right about poor people being lazy?
1/8/2007 9:24:24 PM
Are you trolling?Or are you just being dumb?My money is on trolling, but I'll at least give you the benefit of the doubt.[Edited on January 8, 2007 at 9:51 PM. Reason : ]
1/8/2007 9:50:39 PM
What does anything I wrote have to do with either Reagan or laziness? Is it laziness to not only want to support your family but also spend time with it? Besides, I thought that was what you were referring to: a string of papers suggesting a higher minimum wage would actually reduce unemployment by reducing the hours worked and therefore the supply of workers?
1/8/2007 9:54:26 PM
Probably the same reason we're supposed to believe someone who thought food production wouldn't be able to keep up with exponential population growth (in reference to Malthus).It seems that most everyone in this thread thinks that a price floor on labor will create a labor surplus. This would only be the case in a perfectly competitive market, the unskilled labor market tends to be riddled with buyer market power as only large corporations can support such a disproportionate ratio of skilled to unskilled labor.
1/8/2007 9:54:35 PM
Yea, Kris is here. Suddenly all economic theory and historical experience is worthless, all that matters is markets=bad, government=good
1/8/2007 10:35:04 PM
You want to talk economic theory? Everytime I try to with you, you just start misinterpreting some unrelated study.I never said all markets were bad or that all government intervention is good, but there are flaws in the free market, and thus there is a time and a place where the government must pick up the slack and adjust for these.
1/8/2007 10:46:03 PM
http://www.irs.gov/individuals/article/0,,id=96406,00.html
1/8/2007 11:03:05 PM
^^ What is it to imply that a market that could not possibly be more competitive (tens of thousands of competitors) is "riddled with buyer market power"? You can argue workers have too much difficulty finding out what other employers are willing to pay, but the solution is more page space in the want-ads of the newspaper, not wage regulation.^ could you rephrase your question? The results of the EITC are quite intentional: low-wage individuals capable of declaring income get a check from the government. It is a strong incentive to work and a wealth transfer to those most in need without any negative effects beyond the taxation and administrative overhead. [Edited on January 8, 2007 at 11:07 PM. Reason : .,.]
1/8/2007 11:03:37 PM
The late great Milton Friedman wrote:"The government first provides schools in which many young people, disproportionately black, are educated so poorly that they do not have the skills that would enable them to get good wages. It then penalizes them a second time by preventing them from offering to work for low wages as a means of inducing employers to give them on-the-job training. All this in the name of helping the poor"Higher min. wages means less people on the payroll. Is it better to have these people unemployed or employed at low wages?
1/8/2007 11:11:11 PM
^^ I did some further reading on the EITC and I believe I answered my question, thanks I basically figure the answer to the question I'm not explaining well is that the number of people and thus employers which it would affect are almost negligible.[Edited on January 8, 2007 at 11:31 PM. Reason : .]
1/8/2007 11:30:19 PM
Not entirely true. Any individual earning less than $13k a year will get something from the EITC, even if it isn't larger than his tax obligation.
1/9/2007 12:16:57 AM
1/9/2007 12:34:53 AM
1/9/2007 1:35:59 AM
From New York Time's columnist, Bob Herbert...
1/9/2007 9:04:14 AM
1/9/2007 9:14:33 AM