keep in mind that every storm we've had the past few years ITB never sees what they show for that area, its always more similar to what they forecast for eastern wake.

I think we will see 1" of snow/sleet but the rain is going to mostly melt it

1/21/2016 8:18:42 AM

If typical winter storms around here hold true expect the models to trend back north today and Wake to be on the wrong side of the line per usual where durham ends up with snow and Raleigh gets cold shitty rain haha. I sure hope there is enough when I wake up to justify not going to work because I have been planning a 3 day weekend in my head for a few days now .

1/21/2016 8:58:12 AM

LOL....ITB

1/21/2016 8:58:33 AM

Be surprised if NW of downtown got much regular rain. Maybe a bit Friday evening.

[Edited on January 21, 2016 at 9:04 AM. Reason : Wake is just always gonna be on that line]

1/21/2016 9:03:35 AM

The let down starts... both twc and wunderground now have it not starting until 7 am and being 33 degrees all fucking day haha. Still has tail end snow saturday when I have actual plans... fucking Raleigh winter weather. How do I fall for this shit year after year?

1/21/2016 9:26:51 AM

none of this is a surprise, I posted that this was the trend yesterday morning but no one believed me

1/21/2016 9:32:12 AM

^^ why waste time with those sites? Just read NWS.

1/21/2016 9:34:14 AM

hooray for carmeggedon dc style 2016!

1/21/2016 9:34:30 AM

Quote :

" I sure hope there is enough when I wake up to justify not going to work because I have been planning a 3 day weekend in my head for a few days now ."

If you can easily work from home Friday I would, regardless of the current forecast. That's what I'll be doing.

1/21/2016 9:34:40 AM

Not an option for me or I would. What I worry about is that Im going to assume some of that precip will be sleet or freezing rain so I dont come to work and then it ends up being all rain and my boss is like WTF man! haha The last thing I want to do is drive in and then it actually turns frozen and my ass gets stuck here at work.

[Edited on January 21, 2016 at 9:37 AM. Reason : .]

1/21/2016 9:36:38 AM

What is pretty certain is that whatever we get will include at least some amount of snow/ice or glazing at some times Friday,so you should not work

1/21/2016 9:40:04 AM

NAM looks better for RDU and more in step with the others. Barely brings any non-frozen precip.

From what I can see trends are good for more frozen but it's so finicky here... and holy hell DC gets buried!

1/21/2016 9:45:16 AM

Yeah I feel like Wake county (per usual) is gonna be the battleground county where you just wait and see what actually happens. Gonna work on getting my boss to just straight say dont come in tomorrow if I can haha.

1/21/2016 9:51:16 AM

1/21/2016 9:55:47 AM

Man that is a lot of snow for NoVa

1/21/2016 9:57:40 AM

Yeah NAM has instilled a bit of hope back into me. I'd prefer snow obviously I really hate ice and would probably rather have to work tomorrow than have people dealing with an ice storm.

1/21/2016 10:10:59 AM

We're in the zone where the models usually start trending north again. Lunch today should be interesting.

But I have a 1:30 meeting

1/21/2016 10:13:46 AM

Latest GFS now keeps Durham county all frozen as well (and far more snow). Trends are all good for the time being.

1/21/2016 11:09:28 AM

Experience tells me that the freezing line is almost always more NW of where they think so I suspect we will still get quite a bit of rain in the middle. Definitely gonna be a wait and see event as the line battles back and forth.

1/21/2016 11:22:10 AM

So you're telling me that Durham and Chapel Hill will get a nice snow event, and Raleigh is just going to get shit on with 33 degree rain?

This sounds more and more like a basketball thread.

1/21/2016 11:26:10 AM

Its just cold water, whats the big deal

1/21/2016 11:26:52 AM

1/21/2016 11:31:47 AM

Quote :

"So you're telling me that Durham and Chapel Hill will get a nice snow event, and Raleigh is just going to get shit on with 33 degree rain?"

It's the I-440 Forcefield

1/21/2016 11:34:00 AM

Raleigh Dome in effect

1/21/2016 11:39:05 AM

dtownral where you getting those maps from? Cant find them on the nws site.

1/21/2016 11:45:50 AM

NWS facebook pages

1/21/2016 11:53:31 AM

I think RDU will see 40+ degrees tomorrow

1/21/2016 11:55:27 AM

I've seen one model showing warmer tomorrow and every other model showing colder than predicted tomorrow.

1/21/2016 12:13:01 PM

Tomorrow we will know exactly how much snow fell on average across a large area

1/21/2016 12:13:40 PM

^^ basically this. I suspect ^^^ is trolling.

The trends continue to be good but as always there will be a transition line near Wake County.

1/21/2016 12:28:25 PM

It's not trolling. Just pessimism. Not all that strange giving the track record of winter storms around here.

1/21/2016 12:36:12 PM

Are you guys just ignoring the part of the models that shows temps above freezing and an inch of rain? If you have temps above freezing and that much rain its going to wash away a lot of stuff, and the forecast for the back end snow isn't particularly impressive.

[Edited on January 21, 2016 at 12:37 PM. Reason : ac]

1/21/2016 12:36:55 PM

Yeah I was basically chalking it up to the typical NC State pessimism, I was just curious if there was some more recent map I was missing.

1/21/2016 12:38:03 PM

^^ the 12z NAM and GFS had very little rain at RDU. About .5 qpf compared to 2.5 total storm. It has also tended down since the 0z. However there is a brief period the temp goes up to 32.5-33 before coming down again so rain is a distinct possibility still at that time and longer if it does change trends.

However predicting RDU to hit 40 has basically no basis in reality.

[Edited on January 21, 2016 at 12:47 PM. Reason : In any case I hope it works out for everyone-- really need to do work now]

1/21/2016 12:45:50 PM

If there's a brief period of rain and more freezing doesn't that just make things even messier?

1/21/2016 12:48:02 PM

Yes, especially if the rain comes first and wipes away the brine

1/21/2016 12:53:30 PM

Quote :

"Are you guys just ignoring the part of the models that shows temps above freezing and an inch of rain? If you have temps above freezing and that much rain its going to wash away a lot of stuff, and the forecast for the back end snow isn't particularly impressive."

Well the forecast I'm reading from Wunderground has tomorrow's high listed at 31°F. That's not rain.

1/21/2016 1:27:31 PM

Plus the current models show it trending south and colder

1/21/2016 1:29:13 PM

1/21/2016 1:31:20 PM

^^ just FYI at least half the rain in the GFS is from later on week

1/21/2016 1:34:01 PM

Fishel now says 1-3" is a virtual lock tomorrow with 3-6" not out of the question before the changeover

I RIDE OR DIE WITH THE FISH

1/21/2016 1:41:15 PM

Changeover to what? Sleet, freezing rain or plain rain.

1/21/2016 1:42:31 PM

This guy is usually spot on

[Edited on January 21, 2016 at 1:43 PM. Reason : a]

1/21/2016 1:42:59 PM

So does anyone know anything? or is this basically the weather nerd equivalent of a football game between the fronts? and the rain/snow is the score?


That makes the weathermen the analyst and color commentators?

1/21/2016 1:45:00 PM

That escalated quickly I trust Huffman most of the time and that would be a traffic nightmare.

1/21/2016 2:09:14 PM

If we can keep it on the .25 side of that ice we should be mostly ok

1/21/2016 2:18:08 PM

I dont know how things look temp wise Sunday but if we got 7 inches of sleet/snow covered in half an inch of ice followed by another few inches of snow I am not sure how long it would be until the roads were even passable. Hopefully we fall on the low end of all of those.

1/21/2016 2:20:58 PM

how does one try to keep a clean driveway and walkway with this? Will a bunch of salt be enough or are there other measures I can take?

1/21/2016 2:28:55 PM

You could do like some do with their cars and lay like plastic or cardboard down to cover it then once its done just lift it up along with all the ice and snow built up on it.

1/21/2016 2:47:25 PM

Don't try this with a tarp...

Turns out snow is water. And water is heavy. And I am not strong or smart.

1/21/2016 2:52:35 PM