this morning i was all, "where the funk is my TYH"?

turns out they changed the ticker to TECL

6/29/2012 11:17:22 AM

6/4/2012 Call NFLX -NFLX120608C67.5 67.50 June 0.98
6/11/2012 Call NFLX -NFLX120616C67.5 67.50 June 0.56
6/15/2012 Call NFLX -NFLX120622C67.5 67.50 June 1.25
6/22/2012 Put NFLX -NFLX120629P67.5 67.50 June 1.45
6/29/2012 Put NFLX -NFLX120706P67.5 67.50 July 1.10

$5.34 on NFLX in a month (8% return or 96% annualized)

6/29/2012 2:56:41 PM

Didn't realize that the market closed early and then spent a while trying to figure out why orders weren't going through.

7/3/2012 2:23:33 PM

Liking that synthetic short on FXE right now.

Is anyone holding NFLX?

7/5/2012 10:21:11 AM

Lies and Libor
The rate-fixing scandal should destroy the credibility of banks once and for all.

http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2012/07/what_is_the_libor_scandal_how_the_interest_rate_rigging_should_destroy_the_credibility_of_banks_once_and_for_all.html

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/07/05/barclays-settlement-the-worst-of-the-emails.html

7/11/2012 10:49:34 AM

been too busy to even eat meals the last few days.. praise the lawd for trailing stops so that my gains were locked in..

7/12/2012 11:42:42 PM

^^ laughable. It's been obviously fake for years. Rumors are now saying ~15 years not just since 2008.


The truly ridiculous part is pretending its just barclays. There are 16 banks that set LIBOR and it would take a minimum of 12 complicit banks to fix the rate (they throw out the lowest and highest 4 reports and take the average of the middle 8)

7/13/2012 9:54:55 AM

Quote :

"The dirt we know right now comes overwhelmingly from one bank, Barclays. But that’s because Barclays chose to turn rat and cooperate with the investigation, not because they were the only ones messing around."

7/13/2012 9:57:10 AM

^ exactly. Let's see how long it takes the facts to come out. Such a joke

7/13/2012 11:12:41 AM

Put my chips in for the Kayak IPO.

7/13/2012 2:24:39 PM

When is that IPO?

7/13/2012 3:14:24 PM

Likely sometime in the next two weeks.

7/13/2012 4:03:04 PM

Banks can affect LIBOR without conspiracy.

summary: opposite of what face said

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-16/libor-flaws-allowed-banks-to-rig-rates-without-conspiracy.html

7/16/2012 8:41:55 AM

Quote :

"Regulators may be especially interested in cases where traders at several banks conspired to rig Libor"

7/16/2012 10:19:59 AM

Not doubting that there was conspiracy. point is that conspiracy is not a necessary condition and could be done with far fewer than 12 banks.

7/16/2012 1:55:13 PM

^ what a surprise. International business leaders and politicians get caught in a trillion dollar illegal scheme and suddenly everyone scrambles to try to prove how only one bank could be involved.

Funny, when everyone said LIBOR was rigged for the past 4 years the excuse was "LIBOR CANT BE RIGGED DO YOU REALIZE HOW MANY PEOPLE WOULD HAVE TO BE COMPLICIT!!!"

You guys are crazy that keep falling for this stuff.


I'm not sure if you understand how "averages" work but 1 bank out of 16 simply does not have the ability to move the rate by a significant amount. Especially since they eliminate the 4 lowest and 4 highest submissions. This gives them almost zero power to change the rate by themselves. We're not talking about moving the rate by .00001

The rate has been too low by several PERCENT for years. You mean to tell me banks are failing left and right, cost of capital is in the high double digits, but the overnight lending rate is practically 0.00%. If you actually believe that then I've got a 1994 Topps Stadium Club Rookie Card of Phil Plantier to sell you.

[Edited on July 16, 2012 at 10:08 PM. Reason : a]

7/16/2012 10:01:48 PM

Face, you said that it would take a minimum of 12 banks acting in concert to affect LIBOR. Article I posted disagrees.

Per usual, you delivered a stunningly accurate post facto analysis of an event that apparently you and only a handful of top brass government officials knew about.

You have the amazing ability to state the obvious with a sense of serendipitous discovery.

Keep it up.

7/16/2012 10:41:11 PM

^ it would take 12 banks to manipulate the rate. That is a fact. You posted an article that sounds like it came straight out of animal farm and took it as face value. It's a clear cover-up and the article doesn't even address anything relevant. You'd have to know less than nothing about financial markets to fall for that article.

Are you kidding? People have been talking about LIEBOR for years. Stop getting all your news from CNBC and Fidelity's market update and you'd know about these things too.

You're one of these head in the sand guys who ridicules people all along and then when what they say comes true acts like no one could have possibly known. The finance world is full of you guys.

There aren't that many people left to fool just so you know. Wall street has sheared too many sheep, they aren't coming back.

Final point: The Federal reserve itself has had to send Billions in Emergency funding to European banks to keep them afloat, yet the overnight lending rate between these very same banks is nearly 0%!!!!! Do you understand anything about finance? If you did, it would be clear that something is up here!


PS. What do you have to say about these banks mismarking their assets? Is this the FIRST you've heard anyone mention this too???? You'd have to have ignored the entire internet the last 5 years if it is.

[Edited on July 16, 2012 at 11:13 PM. Reason : a]

[Edited on July 16, 2012 at 11:21 PM. Reason : a]

7/16/2012 11:09:54 PM

Quote :

"The Real Libor Scandal According to news reports, UK banks fixed the London interbank borrowing rate (Libor) with the complicity of the Bank of England (UK central bank) at a low rate in order to obtain a cheap borrowing cost. The way this scandal is playing out is that the banks benefitted from borrowing at these low rates. Whereas this is true, it also strikes us as simplistic and as a diversion from the deeper, darker scandal. Banks are not the only beneficiaries of lower Libor rates. Debtors (and investors) whose floating or variable rate loans are pegged in some way to Libor also benefit. One could argue that by fixing the rate low, the banks were cheating themselves out of interest income, because the effect of the low Libor rate is to lower the interest rate on customer loans, such as variable rate mortgages that banks possess in their portfolios. But the banks did not fix the Libor rate with their customers in mind. Instead, the fixed Libor rate enabled them to improve their balance sheets, as well as help to perpetuate the regime of low interest rates. The last thing the banks want is a rise in interest rates that would drive down the values of their holdings and reveal large losses masked by rigged interest rates. Indicative of greater deceit and a larger scandal than simply borrowing from one another at lower rates, banks gained far more from the rise in the prices, or higher evaluations of floating rate financial instruments (such as CDOs), that resulted from lower Libor rates. As prices of debt instruments all tend to move in the same direction, and in the opposite direction from interest rates (low interest rates mean high bond prices, and vice versa), the effect of lower Libor rates is to prop up the prices of bonds, asset-backed financial instruments, and other "securities." The end result is that the banks' balance sheets look healthier than they really are. On the losing side of the scandal are purchasers of interest rate swaps, savers who receive less interest on their accounts, and ultimately all bond holders when the bond bubble pops and prices collapse. We think we can conclude that Libor rates were manipulated lower as a means to bolster the prices of bonds and asset-backed securities. In the UK, as in the US, the interest rate on government bonds is less than the rate of inflation. The UK inflation rate is about 2.8%, and the interest rate on 20-year government bonds is 2.5%. Also, in the UK, as in the US, the government debt to GDP ratio is rising. Currently the ratio in the UK is about double its average during the 1980-2011 period. The question is, why do investors purchase long term bonds, which pay less than the rate of inflation, from governments whose debt is rising as a share of GDP? One might think that investors would understand that they are losing money and sell the bonds, thus lowering their price and raising the interest rate. Why isn’t this happening? PCR’s June 5 column, “Collapse at Hand,” explained that despite the negative interest rate, investors were making capital gains from their Treasury bond holdings, because the prices were rising as interest rates were pushed lower. What was pushing the interest rates lower? The answer is even clearer now. First, as PCR noted, Wall Street has been selling huge amounts of interest rate swaps, essentially a way of shorting interest rates and driving them down. Thus, causing bond prices to rise. Secondly, fixing Libor at lower rates has the same effect. Lower UK interest rates on government bonds drive up their prices. In other words, we would argue that the bailed-out banks in the US and UK are returning the favor that they received from the bailouts and from the Fed and Bank of England’s low rate policy by rigging government bond prices, thus propping up a government bond market that would otherwise, one would think, be driven down by the abundance of new debt and monetization of this debt, or some part of it. How long can the government bond bubble be sustained? How negative can interest rates be driven? Can a declining economy offset the impact on inflation of debt creation and its monetization, with the result that inflation falls to zero, thus making the low interest rates on government bonds positive? According to his public statements, zero inflation is not the goal of the Federal Reserve chairman. He believes that some inflation is a spur to economic growth, and he has said that his target is 2% inflation. At current bond prices, that means a continuation of negative interest rates. The latest news completes the picture of banks and central banks manipulating interest rates in order to prop up the prices of bonds and other debt instruments. We have learned that the Fed has been aware of Libor manipulation (and thus apparently supportive of it) since 2008. Thus, the circle of complicity is closed. The motives of the Fed, Bank of England, US and UK banks are aligned, their policies mutually reinforcing and beneficial. The Libor fixing is another indication of this collusion. Unless bond prices can continue to rise as new debt is issued, the era of rigged bond prices might be drawing to an end. It would seem to be only a matter of time before the bond bubble bursts."

There, that's a real article. Not that crap you posted. Seriously, I don't want to read anything where they quote a bunch of people who are paid to issue statements in support/defense of the banks. If I hear one more Ivy League professor "opine" on what he has been paid to say/write I might throw up.

7/16/2012 11:24:04 PM

lol at you accusing others of not thinking for themselves and then blindly posting zerohedge.com again

7/16/2012 11:29:37 PM

i dont get it. ive posted on the impending collapse well before i knew what zerohedge was.

Just because it has the collection of the best finance articles on the internet im not supposed to use it now?

Again, ZH is not the only place I get financial news. It's just one of the easiest to find relevant articles on current events. I can't exactly copy and paste from a book or a television interview.

Bottom line, ZH has really good information sometimes. I don't mind bringing that to other people's attention, particularly when the author can explain it better than I can. It's much more efficient.

7/16/2012 11:35:46 PM

The most annoying bit about face is that parades around like he is the only one wise enough to comprehend market events and is benevolent to warn us simpletons years in advance.

Any thought or idea that doesn't coexist with the face parallel universe is dismissed.

Any event can be justified by broad statements.

My personal favorite example of face verbal acrobatics is when he somehow spun his way out of the facebook ipo prediction to 'buy as much as possible'.
IF FB went up: told you guys, so obvious
IF FB went down: too many shares available - so obvious; you all are idiots.

[Edited on July 16, 2012 at 11:47 PM. Reason : aa]

[Edited on July 16, 2012 at 11:48 PM. Reason : kk]

7/16/2012 11:45:52 PM

^ i didnt spin myself out of anything. I wrote about it prior to the IPO, check the timestamp.

You guys have been calling me an idiot for five years on here and now that the things I was warning about are occuring, it's "oh you just get this info from someone else".


There's a ton of info out there, I was just good about dismissing the people who had the wrong info and following the people who knew what they were talking about.

And Ive done all this as a favor, so be happy.

7/16/2012 11:51:16 PM

NFLX reports earnings on Tuesday.

They've got some of the wildest option premiums for next Friday that I've ever seen.

7/20/2012 12:38:10 PM

so far, i've played the JPM and GOOG earnings, by picking up both calls and puts. JPM worked out for a positive gain, but GOOG was a total loss today. I did manage to pick up some weekly 610 calls this morning and wound up with an overall positive gain. I will most likely play NFLX on both sides too. I'm willing to take a 100% on one side of the play if it means more than a double on the other side. The problem with GOOG was both the muted move, and the fact that I was thinking more of a 7-8% move in the stock. I'm thinking 10%+ move for NFLX, but we'll see.

And just if anyone is curious, these are very small bets on these earnings. I don't risk anything of size when it comes to these roulette bets.

7/20/2012 3:09:20 PM

Any bets on Apple?

7/23/2012 6:06:23 PM

^i think either way, the market sells off afterwards. as far as apple, i think it misses and falls to the mid 500s. i won't be playing it though, just in case it does beat.

7/23/2012 9:06:49 PM

wild ride... i've been mostly out of the loop the last two weeks..

picked up some TNA just now

7/25/2012 2:38:43 PM

FUCK THE STOCK MARKET that shit is riddled with so much bullshit speculators and corruption. Who the fuck in their right mind would go to a casino full of card sharks to invest money? And even if you do make money by hiring your own scumbag, what kind of damage are you doing to the world for your shitty little 5%???

7/25/2012 4:26:18 PM

Come again?

7/25/2012 4:35:26 PM

If you're only making 5%, you're doing it wrong, bro.

7/25/2012 4:35:42 PM

Meh. I'd take 5% after inflation.

7/25/2012 4:44:35 PM

you mean 5% a week, right? on another note, znga is getting crush AH - down 40%+ and taking fb with it (down 6%+) lol. i hate it for whoever picked up fb on opening day.

[Edited on July 25, 2012 at 4:46 PM. Reason : kidding about the 5%/week. but 5%/year is not worth the market stress if that's what you're after..]

7/25/2012 4:45:50 PM

No stress here. I'm not day trading options or anything crazy.

7/25/2012 4:51:50 PM

Got some SPY Aug Wk1 136 puts on this gap up for $1.30

[Edited on July 26, 2012 at 10:23 AM. Reason : wk1]

7/26/2012 10:16:10 AM

just sold those ^ puts for 1.60. locked in profits. may pick up some more later today depending. i still think we drop further the rest of the week.

7/26/2012 10:54:02 AM

Nice!

7/26/2012 10:59:45 AM

^thanks man. i wanted to keep holding them, but locking in profits is essential in this market.

7/26/2012 11:04:50 AM

I was thinking of buying some Sprint back when it was ~$2.50/share.

...now it is $4/share.


I didn't do it because usually the markets go the opposite way that I predict, so I decided against it.

7/26/2012 1:25:05 PM

Yeah well I bought it at 3.75 back when it first dropped off from 5. Stuck in it this whole time waiting to recover. Got stopped out at 3.18 on a dip expecting it to double peak and go back down to 2.60 to buy back in. Whoops Must be some stuff in the earnings that looked good other than the basics because they looked fucking terrible this morning minus better revenue. I was expecting a 10% drop at least when I read over them this morning.

7/26/2012 2:58:32 PM

facebook going to miss big?

7/26/2012 3:26:49 PM

I'd expect so. Anyone who bought FB and didnt sell within the first few hours deserves anything they get. That thing had fail written all over it from the start.

7/26/2012 3:39:42 PM

FB goes from something like up 4% to down 3% within 15 minutes in AH.

7/26/2012 4:15:39 PM

facebook down close to 20% yesterday LOL.

7/27/2012 8:12:20 AM

time to buy i suppose

7/27/2012 10:54:52 AM

I don't get how AMZN can continue to command nearly a ~200P/E ratio at a 100B+ valuation... year after year after year. If I was an investor, I'd be wondering when they're going to generate enough profit to close that gap.

7/27/2012 12:03:43 PM

GDOT got hammered today, down 60%

Sooooo I bought a thousand shares before the buzzer

7/27/2012 3:56:28 PM

^^ P/E was 263 based on last reported earnings. It certainly seems pretty crazy.

My guess is people assume more and more retail stores are going to close over the next few years and pretty soon they won't have such horrible margins.

7/31/2012 8:34:07 AM

I wouldnt touch Amazon at these levels if anything I would be short. They have created their own demise basically. Their margins are so thin, but the reason they do so much business is because of this. As soon as they raise prices to raise them they will lose customers. In the end UPS and Fedex make more money off every Amazon sale than they actually do. I am not sure what they need to do to fix the problem but right now it's trading way too high for my tastes.

7/31/2012 10:30:25 AM

eh, they are undercutting everyone by so much right now that they could probably raise prices some. I think they are just hellbent on converting everyone to online retailing as fast as possible and making sure they maintain a loyal customer base.

Not saying I'd buy them at 263 PE though obviously. That's just crazy.

Oh look, facebook bombing 5% down today again haha. I love seeing the social media bubble pop. Not sure if there has ever been a more obvious one. Loved seeing them all race to IPO before it got exposed.

7/31/2012 11:01:53 AM