darkone showed me this, and it shows the surge predictions as well if you're near the water in New Bern

https://cera.coastalrisk.live/

9/12/2018 10:05:02 PM

Should have known that the path earlier this week going straight over Raleigh was a joke. No way the dome would allow this to happen.

9/12/2018 10:25:01 PM

9/12/2018 10:36:11 PM

Someone's going to have to explain the Raleigh dome to me.

Any word on Raleigh businesses? What are the plans for Cecil's Cockring Emporium?

9/12/2018 10:44:18 PM

Quote :

"Where in New Bern are you at? "

I've always used New Bern as a reference, but I actually live about 20 minutes out in the sticks near Trenton, on the Trent River. Stay safe over on the other side!

9/12/2018 10:48:42 PM

11pm Update has it more of a northward hit, topsail area.

Also has it as a Cat 2 now, it may not regroup and strengthen anymore, or much more

9/12/2018 10:57:39 PM

wasn't it like 24 hours ago they were proposing adding a Category 6 just to accommodate this storm?

9/12/2018 11:05:39 PM

^^ I forget which hurricane it was but one once split Topsail Island into 3 pieces. (That's what hurricanes do over time is create new inlets in the barrier islands, fill in old ones.)

Nutgrass: Trenton? You should be fine.

Was just thinking about this. But as you leave New Bern and go across the Highway 17 bridge across the Neuse River to go to Bridgeton, there's this one stupid two-story house that is isolated right by itself sticking out in the river on a cape. Ever since the house was built, I've said "that house is a goner if a direct hit hurricane comes". The end is nigh. Map of its location:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/2-037+-055,+2,+NC+28560/@35.1030602,-77.0207059,697m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m13!1m7!3m6!1s0x89a8d1f9c086ad37:0xb001ed84fc5d5781!2sBridgeton,+NC!3b1!8m2!3d35.1215489!4d-77.02078!3m4!1s0x89a8d1ddaef07faf:0xde1e90ad0772845a!8m2!3d35.1030245!4d-77.0185729

Quote :

"wasn't it like 24 hours ago they were proposing adding a Category 6 just to accommodate this storm?"

They can talk about their newfangled models all they want but hurricane projection is still not all that great.

[Edited on September 12, 2018 at 11:11 PM. Reason : .]

9/12/2018 11:07:35 PM

I still think it won't lose much speed from now on as far as winds go. It's the rain thats the issue and surge anyways.

Eyewall had a southside mess up and it didn't recover well

9/12/2018 11:10:30 PM

lmao at this storm making a sharp left to avoid Raleigh then a sharp right once its past

9/12/2018 11:17:08 PM

So what you're saying then, is our roads are fine?

9/12/2018 11:18:52 PM

Video posted on Facebook showing this, but:

"Ocean already coming through the dunes, 400 yards south of New Inlet Bridge, Rodanthe."

https://www.facebook.com/marcusphotography/videos/10156963614559739/UzpfSTEwMDAwMDY1MjE1NDEzNToyMTkzMjA2OTM3Mzc3Njkw/

That was at least some hours ago, it was daylight.

[Edited on September 12, 2018 at 11:34 PM. Reason : .]

9/12/2018 11:30:38 PM

^ looks like that was 2 days ago

[Edited on September 12, 2018 at 11:51 PM. Reason : ]

9/12/2018 11:46:00 PM

holy shit. that guy built a time machine?!

9/13/2018 12:09:29 AM

[Edited on September 13, 2018 at 1:00 AM. Reason : f]

There are some NASTY looking storms on the East NE side of this thing. It's starting it's slow down and stall at 1 am

[Edited on September 13, 2018 at 1:07 AM. Reason : loop]

9/13/2018 12:58:25 AM

https://katc.com/weather/2018/09/12/new-video-of-hurricane-florence-wave-heights-reaching-83-feet/

9/13/2018 1:14:04 AM

thats a misleading URL

theres no video of such wave on the page

9/13/2018 1:22:10 AM

clearly not a meteorologist, but did she just complete an eyewall replacement cycle since the 11pm update?

9/13/2018 1:27:01 AM

Thats why I am watching that loop over and over...

That south side is completely replaced and it's a TIGHT eye now.


Not sure if the winds will increase but damn, that looked quick right?

9/13/2018 1:32:12 AM

Indeed, very fast

9/13/2018 1:57:46 AM

How we looking?

9/13/2018 7:03:16 AM

Regular hours today, VPN tomorrow. Mucho rain.

9/13/2018 7:18:20 AM

Cat 2 storm. We got this. All these people with their premature evacuations.

Bogue inlet pier cam
https://www.bogueinletpier.com/pier-cam/

[Edited on September 13, 2018 at 7:44 AM. Reason : ]

9/13/2018 7:41:30 AM

Jesus. say goodbye to that pier

9/13/2018 8:07:39 AM

[Edited on September 13, 2018 at 8:31 AM. Reason : nb]

9/13/2018 8:29:24 AM

there's still a 70% probability of tropical storm force winds, i wouldn't start eating all your hurricane snacks yet

in the 7:00 briefing the NWS forecast is peak sustained winds of 30mph with wind gusts to 47mph, that's not quite Hurricane Fran speeds but it's enough to take down some trees. Also per the 7:00 briefing we should start seeing wind gusts between 2AM-5AM in raleigh and 5AM-8AM in durham. We are still in the 6-10" rain expected
https://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf



[Edited on September 13, 2018 at 8:39 AM. Reason : .]

9/13/2018 8:36:19 AM

^^^,^^^^

There are people on the pier taking pictures.

9/13/2018 8:51:09 AM

ppl all over the pier taking selfies and snaps

9/13/2018 8:53:22 AM

Quote :

" in the 7:00 briefing the NWS forecast is peak sustained winds of 30mph with wind gusts to 47mph, that's not quite Hurricane Fran speeds but it's enough to take down some trees. Also per the 7:00 briefing we should start seeing wind gusts between 2AM-5AM in raleigh and 5AM-8AM in durham. We are still in the 6-10" rain expected"

yea thats not your average breeze, not be stupid people

9/13/2018 9:19:29 AM

Do not focus on the wind speed category of #Hurricane #Florence! Life-threatening storm surge flooding, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding are still expected. More: https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/eiD4c8pkRx

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 13, 2018

9/13/2018 9:20:22 AM

Quote :

"https://cera.coastalrisk.live/"

damn, new bern is going to have their shit pushed in

9/13/2018 9:24:27 AM

New Bern wont exist for awhile

9/13/2018 9:32:21 AM

southport looks good atm

http://stateportpilot.com/live_web_cam/

9/13/2018 10:11:35 AM

Look at Emerald Isle now

http://www.ebmcdn.net/webcast/flash/bogue-inlet/live-iframe.html

9/13/2018 10:16:15 AM

Frying Pan Shoals, wind is pretty stout. Wonder if anyone was crazy enough to try and ride it out on the tower.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deG4NxkouGM&feature=youtu.be

9/13/2018 10:25:23 AM

good tweet:
https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1040250893592092673

Quote :

"Here's what #Florence's structure change does to wind forecasts (from NWS). Left image is yesterday AM forecast, right image is current. Florence didn't weaken, it redistributed its energy in a way not reflected in category. Bigger storm now MORE impactful (esp OBX)! #NCwx #SCwx"

9/13/2018 11:09:54 AM

someone's got to be manning the camera.

9/13/2018 11:10:15 AM

^^ wtf i though our roads are fine!

get your story straight.

9/13/2018 11:17:33 AM

huh?

9/13/2018 11:18:59 AM

Just felt some raindrops. Is Crabtree under water yet?

9/13/2018 11:44:41 AM

Guilford county just canceled schools for tomorrow. Guess rain is now a reason to cancel school....

9/13/2018 11:52:39 AM

Flooding is a reason to cancel school

9/13/2018 11:57:52 AM

Seems to be tracking a bit north of where the models put it, yeah?

[Edited on September 13, 2018 at 12:23 PM. Reason : moms house is on the white oak, she’s boned. She’s in town safe with me though]

9/13/2018 12:22:42 PM

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=se&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

9/13/2018 12:29:52 PM

Quote :

"Seems to be tracking a bit north of where the models put it, yeah?"

Yep, you are correct. which puts us locally more into too

9/13/2018 12:31:28 PM

just started raining in western Pender County.

9/13/2018 12:57:43 PM

^^ is there a site that tracks projection vs actual?

9/13/2018 1:05:39 PM

^ yeah I'm wondering the same. I can't find anywhere that shows the projected vs actual path.

9/13/2018 1:18:39 PM

Rode by Crabtree a few minutes ago. Can confirm I made it through but had 4WD truck.

9/13/2018 1:33:47 PM

Quote :

"Guess rain is now a reason to cancel school...."

or, if a school or schools is/are needed as a shelter

9/13/2018 1:47:12 PM