https://er.ncsbe.gov/

bttt

11/6/2018 7:32:03 PM

Thankfully in Orange County most of my local election choices were already made for me. I did at least get to vote for/against the amendments.

11/6/2018 8:13:42 PM

The fivethirtyeight.com projections just flipped backwards. I wonder if that is realistic or a geographical bias issue with early reporting?

11/6/2018 8:36:47 PM

IM DRUNK ALREADY AND THE POLLS ARE BARELY TRICKLING IN

*continues polishing shotgun*

11/6/2018 8:48:15 PM

Horrible look.

This country fucking sucks.

11/6/2018 8:48:53 PM

Looks like we are all getting an income tax cut.

11/6/2018 9:00:08 PM

feels like Beto is gonna win and everyone else is gonna lose

certainly looking like racism will win

[Edited on November 6, 2018 at 9:15 PM. Reason : .]

11/6/2018 9:11:28 PM

[Edited on November 6, 2018 at 9:26 PM. Reason : Also, Fuck Mark Meadows]

11/6/2018 9:25:53 PM

My internet is screwed up; I can't watch TV. I'm just looking at the CNN site/app and 538.

...but aren't we likely looking at a (D) House and (R) Senate? Not as blue of a wave as people expected, but probably not dramatically different in terms of overall outcome?

Am I missing something with my lack of connectivity?

11/6/2018 9:47:42 PM

^ that’s what it’s looking like but still could go any direction on the House

I’m surprised Gillum is losing by as much as he is. He was up in the polls.

11/6/2018 9:50:43 PM

My local shit TV news page is calling AGAINST the Judicial vacancy commission amendment(amendment 5)?????

[Edited on November 6, 2018 at 10:00 PM. Reason : PLZ CONFIRM]

11/6/2018 9:57:23 PM

confirmed

11/6/2018 10:03:30 PM

To me, it look like what we expected, to me.

11/6/2018 10:13:23 PM

yea sadly its looking like polls just cant get florida.

been wrong two major elections in a row

11/6/2018 10:31:40 PM

Raw numbers wise this is basically what a wave looks like, Dems will approach +10 in the national pop vote margin. The Senate map was just too tough to overcome and fuck Florida with a bayonet.

11/6/2018 10:34:18 PM

media’s gonna give just as much coverage to republicans holding the senate, though

11/6/2018 10:43:10 PM

It's a good thing we don't use the national popular vote for anything.

11/6/2018 10:46:47 PM

Dem House and still GOP senate

Big legislation is basically off the table. Confirmations are easier. Chances of impeachment hearings basically 0.

I think this puts trump closer to reelection since he can now officially blame the democrats for not being able to pass anything... and we should start seeing 2020 campaigns really spin up.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Beto and Gillum on the field. I think Warrens not going to run.

I’m not really up on what oversight powers House have, if they can investigate these frauds and emoluments or whatever.

11/6/2018 11:21:50 PM

hmm, you think the House wouldn't impeach if there was something seriously material to try him for?

11/6/2018 11:52:24 PM

^ they would... I mixed up who has impeachment power...

11/7/2018 12:00:44 AM

https://twitter.com/mattoswaltva/status/1060018610230312962?s=21

Sickest burn this year

11/7/2018 12:36:34 AM

Continues to fascinate me how much electoral power white people have despite practically all other minority groups mostly wanting different policies.

11/7/2018 12:51:10 AM

i mean.........but why tho?.. like ...why does that surprise you?

Like, yeah....they mostly want to maintain the systemic and institutional structures that gave them and continue to give them a huge leg up.

[Edited on November 7, 2018 at 2:34 AM. Reason : ]

11/7/2018 2:26:11 AM

The state did ok on the amendments. Not perfect, but ok.

Anita Earls winning the state Supreme Court is clutch AF.

Who has a run down of what the state general assembly breakdown is?

[Edited on November 7, 2018 at 6:00 AM. Reason : GA improves by breaking the supermajority]

11/7/2018 5:38:53 AM

We did less than good on amendments in NC

(Although I guess now I can finally kill the rabbits that are eating my garden and squirrels that keep trying to get into my attic so I got that goin for me, which is nice)

11/7/2018 6:36:29 AM

Looks like Rohrabacher's out

11/7/2018 7:10:10 AM

I honestly expected all the amendments to pass, so I was pleasantly surprised that the 2 got voted down

11/7/2018 7:14:53 AM

My take:

-Hunt and Fish amendment - ok, I didn’t like it but it’s hardly the end of the world.
-Crime victims - ok, I could actually see this being a net good
-Income tax rate - Hamstrings us, no doubt, but the cap is sufficiently high I think it will be fine in the near to medium term
-Voter ID - could still potentially be ruled unconstitutional depending on how it’s implemented?? It’s complicated because this is an amendment, but an amendment doesn’t give you carte blanche to ignore the other parts of the state constitution, like the “fair and equal elections” clauses. Basically, if the actual rules are too stringent, those rules could be struck down even as the amendment stands??? I’m also interested to see how it affects absentee voting, how do you show ID if that’s how you vote??

All the other shit amendments that were blatant NCGA power grabs were voted down. I didn’t expect that if I’m honest.

11/7/2018 7:16:44 AM

Man, I knew Ohio was gonna be a lost cause, but I thought we had maybe at least one more competitive cycle in 2020. That place is totally gone now, basically the Florida panhandle north.

On the flip side, Ds did better in Iowa than I expected and the WI/PA/MI firewall seems to have snapped back hard.

[Edited on November 7, 2018 at 7:21 AM. Reason : .]

11/7/2018 7:17:50 AM

I'm not ok with the crime victims amendment. I see that being a back door to curbing abortion rights.

That unborn fetus is victim you guys.

11/7/2018 7:25:06 AM

I'm not ok with the crime victim bullshit because the courtroom isn't about the victim. It's about the fucker in the defendant's chair who stands to have his/her liberty taken away. The victim has no "rights" in this situation, nor should they. Not only that, but anything which assumes a priori that someone is a victim is dangerous, as it cuts away from the presumption of innocence. Overall, it's a dangerous move away from due process in a system which is already heavily stacked against the defendant.


Anyway, if the House Dems are dumb enough to make Pelosi Speaker, they will cement another 4 years for Cheeto. That is, unless they find actual evidence for impeachment. I fully expect the next two years to be a total clown show, similar to the House 'pubs foaming at the mouth over Hillary before the 2016 election.

[Edited on November 7, 2018 at 8:24 AM. Reason : ]

11/7/2018 8:17:33 AM

republicans did well enough that they will continue to stand behind trump and continue to escalate the dangerous rhetoric, democrats did well enough that they will continue to stand behind party leadership and not change tack. without some kind of major event, i don't have high hopes for democrats in 2020.

11/7/2018 8:30:35 AM

One bit of good news in the veto proof majority for the NC GOP is now gone. Cooper may actually become somewhat relevant.

11/7/2018 9:10:58 AM

The House needs to start churning out legislation that is popular to the working class, make a huge production out of those efforts, and dare the Senate and Trump to block them. It's about the only way they can make this flip work for them, but we all know they're only going to launch investigation after investigation into Trump.

And of course Pelosi is going to be Speaker, you're deluding yourself if you think otherwise. It's nice that the House is going to be blue, but that doesn't equate to progressive (or even very liberal) by any stretch of the imagination.

11/7/2018 9:11:24 AM

Anyone think that the loss of the House majority will prompt Republicans to run someone other than the Trump?

11/7/2018 9:24:29 AM

Ted Cruz is likely to rise up after two years. He defended Texas last night.

11/7/2018 9:41:19 AM

Cruz vs. Beto for president in 2020?

11/7/2018 9:47:54 AM

^^^ hahahhahahaha

[Edited on November 7, 2018 at 10:34 AM. Reason : No. Nobody thinks that.]

11/7/2018 10:33:51 AM

Usually he owns the White House for 8 years, at least in the last 40 years.

11/7/2018 10:39:56 AM

Quote :

"Income tax rate - Hamstrings us, no doubt, but the cap is sufficiently high I think it will be fine in the near to medium term"

As recently as 2014 NC had tax brackets with the upper end paying over 7%. The five years after Hurricane Floyd there was an 8.25% bracket for income over 200K. What the amendment is going to do is shift more of the tax burden onto middle and lower bracket earners.

11/7/2018 10:41:32 AM

Why would they run someone other than Trump? The record turnout last night was partially due to him, and not in a bad way.

11/7/2018 10:45:58 AM

Both two parties claim that they win, which is hilarious.

11/7/2018 11:04:31 AM

While it's great the Dems won the house, their losses in the Senate sting a ton. Not because they had any real shot at taking over the Senate (there weren't enough races, so the margin for error was razor thin) but because it just goes to show how divided this country is. Taking back the house with such a diverse array of candidates is great and a huge check to Trump, but what happened in the Senate is a glaring reminder that winning the Electoral College is going to mean much more than just running a candidate who can win the popular vote- it's nowhere close to being enough anymore. They need to find one that can win in states that the GOP has gerrymandered to oblivion, and now with Republican governors/Senators dictating the basic ways elections take place, it's going to be pretty fucking tough.



[Edited on November 7, 2018 at 12:11 PM. Reason : .]

11/7/2018 12:08:13 PM

Gerrymandering doesn't really affect the Electoral College, Republicans can't redraw state lines. It is turnout and/or vote suppression that plays into the presidential and gubernatorial elections.

11/7/2018 12:15:14 PM

The Tester hold is huge and Sinema is still in the game. At this point it's about reducing the number pickups needed in 2020.

11/7/2018 1:11:17 PM

Quote :

"Anyone think that the loss of the House majority will prompt Republicans to run someone other than the Trump?"

It’s so interesting to me that some people think this iteration of the GOP is salvageable. Dude, your old party is gone. Look who lost? Moderates who never supported Trump fully. The Curbelos, Comstoxks, etc.

This is and will be Trumps party long after he has cardiac arrest.

11/7/2018 2:38:35 PM

Quote :

"Gerrymandering doesn't really affect the Electoral College, Republicans can't redraw state lines. It is turnout and/or vote suppression that plays into the presidential and gubernatorial elections."

https://medium.com/s/story/five-acts-of-voter-suppression-that-will-sway-the-next-election-b6979e9ff94c

But you hit on my point, which is the voter suppression aspect that the GOP does so well. If you can't register to vote, let alone have your vote counted on election day and you're voting D, you are SOL.

[Edited on November 7, 2018 at 3:00 PM. Reason : .]

11/7/2018 2:57:46 PM

I like this, and it should be the main positive take away from last night from Democrats. This is the popular vote map for House races from last night,



It's Obama 2012 minus Ohio. That coalition is still alive and well, and outnumbers the Trump horde in enough places to comfortably retake the WH if you run a candidate that can hold it.

11/7/2018 3:16:05 PM

How can you believe anything on that map when it clearly doesn't reflect what happened last night in Florida?

11/7/2018 3:51:27 PM

House races. Dems lost the statewide races but there were more votes for Democratic House candidates than Republican ones in Florida. In any case, Florida would be a bonus, not a necessity for 270.

[Edited on November 7, 2018 at 4:02 PM. Reason : .]

11/7/2018 4:01:42 PM