^ WAY TO REPEAT MY QUESTION. JERK

5/29/2012 2:02:59 PM

GRR CAPS LOCK

fine, i'll even re-post yours for the top of this page:

Quote :

"where do you think it stops?"

5/29/2012 2:28:49 PM

$14-$17

5/29/2012 5:42:49 PM

The volume on puts vs calls for FB makes it look pretty grim.

5/29/2012 6:10:28 PM

There's a lot not to like about facebook.

1) Their expenses have a huge upward trajectory

2) A lot of their growth numbers are leveling off or declining

3) Their valuation is based off exponential revenue growth even though they haven't figured out how to monetize it yet

4) The corporate governance structure is horrible to protect investors

5) The mobile version is booming yet its even less profitable than the website because they cant really put ads on a mobile screen

Then just look at all the other things that could go wrong. It's a trendy site that could become obsolete, low barriers to entry, etc.


With the web traffic they get if they figured out a way to monetize it the stock could produce good returns from here. It's kind of a big if though, right?

5/29/2012 10:22:26 PM

FLR is within $4 of its 52 week low this morning and I thought we were already oversold. Very tempting to at least put a few thousand in.

5/30/2012 10:12:33 AM

^^

the paid a fucking billion dollars for instagram.

5/30/2012 11:04:16 AM

I really do believe that Facebook's...uh, shrewd decision to buy Instagram for a billion dollars may have significantly undermined investors' confidence in their corporate governance.

[Edited on May 30, 2012 at 11:32 AM. Reason : ]

5/30/2012 11:32:24 AM

^ Every time you post in this thread the sheer amount of insight literally makes me shit myself.

5/30/2012 12:36:43 PM

Ok, finally bit on the FLR stock. I've been watching it and been tempted since I sold all that I had earlier this year to take the good gains on it. Finally hopped back in for a couple thousand at $46.16 since I think it is way oversold.

5/31/2012 12:33:06 PM

On days like this I feel like I'm staring at broken markets and charts and there is a beautiful orchestra playing in my ear. The volume going up and down and the thrashing and the twists and turns and the smell of fear and sound of panic as one by one people all over the world discover what's taking place. Below 1.6% on the 10 year today indicates that a new day is upon us. The speed and trajectory is increasing.

Who are these billions of people worldwide who have collectively entrusted their entire life's savings into the hands of so few men? These people who now find themselves 100% dependent on a global monetary system that has been pilfered so many times over that it is breaking down right before their eyes. The answer is, who among us aren't they?

I'm addicted to the days and weeks when the underlying chaos that is the foundation of our current financial system lets its presence be felt in the market. When the markets briefly wrest control from the financiers and oligarchs and remind them who will ultimately have the final say. Spreads cracking, equities rolling over, pure panic in the exotics. Margin calls, Forced Redemptions, Unwinds. The collective psyche of traders facing the all too real threat of one day going no bid. The lumps in the back of the throats of the Corporate Executives who know the Day of Reckoning can't be delayed in perpetuity. The boardroom debates on whether this is the one and if it's time to batten the hatches...or if maybe they can just convince the powers at be to give them one more year to siphon more profits off the backs of the citizens before the spigots are turned off.

Herein lies the problem. Each time the natural market forces return it requires exponentially more expense and effort from the Federal Reserve to put them temporarily back down again. But like a drug addict the stimulants have less and less effect and the half-life gets shorter with each dose. This becomes increasingly more difficult to balance as more collateral damage occurs from the unanticipated effects of the government controlled domestic economy and the known side effects (unemployment, inflation, and misallocation of resources) continue to mount while only being treated for their symptoms (transfer payments) rather than finding viable solutions (job creation).

I love it, I breathe it, I'm addicted to it. Watching the market go up or stay flat just doesn't illicit feelings for me. I know it may sound sadistic but it's not, it's about the respect I have for the power and sanctity of markets. The belief that markets select winners and losers and that prices should be set by natural forces, not controlled or manipulated for the benefit of the select few at the expense of the many. Much like someone may enjoy watching the raw power of a destructive tornado up close or an antagonist killed at the end movie I enjoy the beauty and purity of wealth destruction when it's properly allocated. It's when the markets become the most chaotic that they start to feel the most orderly.

Some say the end is near.
Some say we'll just see more bailouts soon.
Spain certainly hopes we will.
Europe sure could use a vacation from all this
Bullshit, political circus sideshow of
Liars.

Here in this hopeless fucking country we call USA
The only way to fix our budget is to tell China we won't pay.
Monetize more debt, Every fucking day.
Convert to Gold now before your savings gets wiped away

Fret for your Facebook and
Fret for your Zynga and
Fret for your Linkedin and
Fret for your Netflix and
Fret for your Yelp and
Fret for your Twitter and
Fret for your Pandora and
Fret for your Groupon.

It's a Pooooonzi...
There's.... No.... Profits

Sell these worthless companies to the public right away
We've got to dump our shares before their value goes away
Could be any fucking time. Any fucking day.
Convert to Gold now before you lose your fucking face.

Some say the Euro will completely collapse
Followed by bank runs, riots, and pepper spray.
Followed by markets that cannot sit still.
Followed by millions of dumbfounded eurotrash

Some say the end is near.
Some say we'll see Armageddon soon.
I certainly hope we will cause
I sure could use a vacation from

Europe's stupid shit. Obama's stupid shit. Bernanke's stupid shit.

One great big unending political distraction,
I've a suggestion to keep you all occupied.

Convert to Gold.

Market's gonna crash soon.
Market's comin' round to put it back down where it ought to be

Convert to Gold

Fuck Warren Buffet and
Fuck all his clones.
Fuck all these inside trading
Piece of shit democrats

Convert to Gold.

Fuck your book value and
Fuck all your hedges.
Fuck your derivatives and
Fuck your short memory.

Convert to Gold.

Fuck all these CEO's,
With hidden agendas.
Fuck these continuous,
European Referendas.

Convert to Gold

Greece is breaking into mayhem
Japan's recovering from tsunami waves
I wanna see the DOW give way.
I wanna watch it all go down.
Just please flush our debt away.
I wanna see the Nikkei go right in and down
I wanna watch it go right in
Watch you flush it all away

Time to refinance my house again
Don't just call me pessimist.
Try and read between the lines.

I can't imagine why you wouldn't
Welcome a market crash, my friend.

I wanna see it come down
Bring it down.
Suck it down.
Flush it down.

5/31/2012 4:15:26 PM

Quote :

"My prediction is that face will continue to do mountains of cocaine and post inane shit."

5/31/2012 4:22:11 PM

I don't keep up with the stock market or gold...but when I was ring shopping a few weeks ago, the price of rings were a little cheaper because they said gold prices were down.

5/31/2012 4:27:11 PM

At least he gets props for referencing a killer Tool song.

5/31/2012 4:34:17 PM

There's probably more value to be gleaned from the market outlook in my post than there will be for the rest of the decade in here.


Even if you don't like my lyrics. Disaster looms.

5/31/2012 4:45:18 PM

I too, appreciate the Tool reference.

5/31/2012 6:37:20 PM

Quote :

" * We don’t know exactly what is to come, but we can all join the very few dots from where we are now, to the collapse of the first major bank… * With very limited room for government bailouts, we can very easily join the next dots from the first bank closure to the collapse of the whole European banking system, and then to the bankruptcy of the governments themselves. * There are almost no brakes in the system to stop this, and almost no one realises the seriousness of the situation. * The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives… * Yes, that equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations * From an EU crisis, we only have to join one dot for a UK crisis of equal magnitude. * And then do you think Japan and China would not be next? * And then do you think the US would survive unscathed? * That is the end of the fractional reserve banking system and of fiat money. * It is the big RESET. * Bonds will be stuck at 1% in the US, Germany, UK and Japan (for this phase). * The whole bond market will be dead. * Short selling on bonds - banned * Short selling stocks – banned * CDS – banned * Short futures – banned * Put options – banned * All that is left is the Dollar and Gold * We have around 6 months left of trading in Western markets to protect ourselves or make enough money to offset future losses. * Spend your time looking at the risks of custody, safekeeping, counterparty etc. Assume that no one and nothing is safe. * After that…we put on our tin helmets and hide until the new system emerges From a timing perspective, I think 2012 and 2013 will usher in the end. "

This isn't a joke guys. This is actually happening. I've warned you about this for years. A black hole has such massive gravity that even light can't escape it.

[Edited on June 1, 2012 at 3:55 AM. Reason : a]

6/1/2012 3:32:36 AM

http://panzner.typepad.com/

6/1/2012 6:41:30 AM

I WANNA HEAR THE CANNON!

6/1/2012 8:56:49 AM

So Face ... is BUY GOLD your only recommendation?

6/1/2012 10:13:48 AM

I mean it's pretty easy to poke holes in any other type of investment. You don't want to get too cute in a worldwide meltdown.

6/1/2012 10:42:24 AM

People just don't seem to comprehend what we're up against here.

If we each have $100 and we make a $100 bet with each other and I win, you go broke. No big deal to anyone except you.

If we each have $100 and we make a $3,000 bet with each other and I win, you go broke but I don't get my money. That's a big deal to me and you.

And if I bet $3,000 on the opposite outcome with someone else as a "hedge", then that means they aren't getting paid either. Now it's a big deal to three of us and anyone that the third party owes money to as well. Hopefully, you see where this is going.

Europe's banking system is leveraged 25:1 which means for every $1M of assets they have a whopping $40,000 of equity supporting it. Obviously, most of their assets are already severely impaired so in reality they're already insolvent. However, in this extend and pretend world we live in, they're not writing their assets down. That can work for awhile and it's kept the crash at bay for an extra four years now.

Well here's the chubby for ya. The boys up in beantown were doing the ole' Betty Baroo like a bunch of flapper girls who were getting a little loopy on the gin & juice.

The citizens are starting to realize that the banks are beyond salvageable and they are rushing to pull out their deposits. We call this a "bank run" and they can take down a bank faster than you can say "Yo, MTV raps". The banks can't just sell their assets to raise cash because if they sell an asset that they have marked to "hold to maturity" then they have to move all like assets into "held for trading" or "available for sale" as well and mark them at current market prices.

The Banks can't get away with marking a portfolio of assets at it's historical cost right after they liquidate part of the portfolio for 50 cents on the dollar. That would be like you walking into Target at North Hills in August with no pants on and trying to play dumb like you're there to look at Trapper Keepers in the Back to School section. People are going to notice.

Leverage is a funny thing. When you don't have an equity cushion to absorb losses it only takes a tiny change in asset values to wipe you out. And since the Forwards market is unregulated (unlike the Futures market where you have to post collateral) these banks have bets out there that are truly remarkable in size. They claim to be "hedged" because if one bet goes bad they'll get paid on another. But that's not how musical chairs works. There's always going to be someone who can't find a chair.

6/1/2012 11:23:54 AM

Is there any reason why GOLD may collapse?

Like what if the price of GOLD takes a dramatic drop?

6/1/2012 11:35:42 AM

Sure.

If stocks are collapsing and people need a source of cash they will sell gold to meet margin calls. Also the dollar can sometimes rally faster than gold can keep up. I don't recommend a leveraged gold position.

But there is such strong demand from the East for gold that it's creating a base for gold. There are some huge buyers out there absorbing the selling.

If you look at 2008 Gold got rocked, but it rebounded to new highs very shortly. When the Fed prints, gold will go up in the long run.

[Edited on June 1, 2012 at 11:44 AM. Reason : a]

6/1/2012 11:44:07 AM

Quote :

"When the Fed prints, gold will go up in the long run."

Bought gold at $760/oz. Perfectly fine with it going down a bit in the grand scheme then.

6/1/2012 12:36:44 PM

There's only three places people can park cash. Euro, dollar, gold.

People are fleeing the euro so that leaves two.

The dollar is doomed in the long run and qe 3 will occur in the short run. Not a difficult decision on where to go.

If I offered you free light bulbs would you take them? Yes. If I offered you a life raft would you take it? Yes. Do you like cinnamon teddy grahams? Yes. Do you want to protect your savings during the largest economic collapse in over 100 years? ........

Why is it so easy to answer yes to trivial questions but in important life altering moments you freeze up?

6/1/2012 3:05:09 PM

Cash is also going in to treasuries. German 2 year with negative yield.

6/1/2012 3:23:18 PM

Treasuries are the dollar for the sake of this discussion. Same effect . Capital inflow, dollar rises.

6/1/2012 3:37:46 PM

Gold will go down because there is a flight to USD. Still strong demand for USTs for the sole reason as there is nowhere else to park it

6/1/2012 3:47:43 PM

just picked up some FAS for a Monday pop..

6/1/2012 3:59:04 PM

DUK hit 52 week high today

6/1/2012 4:03:37 PM

putting a trailing stop on part of that FAS from last week so i can lock in some gains.

bought some CAT and DE.

6/6/2012 11:09:45 AM

stopped out of my FAS early yesterday, and my limit buy hit on TNA at the end of day yesterday...

could've just saved the transaction cost and sat on FAS the whole time..

6/12/2012 4:24:39 PM

Italy, come on down!!!

6/13/2012 8:33:53 AM

Greece will be having its election Sunday and a left party called SYRIZA if it takes power (they're up in the polls) is the one most likely to get rid of the euro. So there may or may not be good news for markets on Monday everyone.

Some employment data for those who care.

6/13/2012 10:30:41 AM

anybody following any natural gas funds? I've been following GAZ and UNG for a few months now, which have been on a steady decline for several years with the abundance of gas supplies driving down prices.

I've been reading about coal plants starting to make the switch to gas...any guesses how low prices will get before increase useage starts to eat into that supply and force the prices up?

6/13/2012 11:42:31 AM

Trina Solar

6/13/2012 10:25:34 PM

decent sized oil find in Kansas. don't think its as big as North Dakota, but its a legit one..

6/14/2012 11:06:26 AM

TNA 60.00 strike July Calls Bought to Open @ $0.45

this is supercharged & i might regret it

6/18/2012 2:50:10 PM

Already showing up to me as $.35/$.45 bid/ask.

What was your strategery on this one?

6/18/2012 2:59:55 PM

TNA, EDC, TYH, FAS are all showing the inverse head & shoulders on a 1-3 month horizon. as are XLK, XLF, SPY, etc.

i was originally looking at the 55 strike, but those were around $1.2 per. also, the 60 just looked better than the 55 in terms of time decay (not much time, i know). i will likely unload north of a 5-handle over the next 2 weeks

6/18/2012 3:05:15 PM

Just picked up a small block of FB at $31.70 and sold $32 calls this friday for $.65.

6/18/2012 3:09:16 PM

i will say, your strategy and discipline is much better/more organized than mine.

whenever i do this shit, i feel like im just betting on the last color that hit at the roulette table

6/18/2012 3:12:54 PM

TNA 60.00 strike July Calls sold to close @ $0.65

little under 40% return after transaction costs.


originally i had a limit to sell to close @ 0.95 so that i would double my $ and then some,, but it looks like im going to be traveling up and down the east coast and/or overseas, and in meetings a lot, so i cant watch it... last night i was literally losing a bit of sleep over this

6/19/2012 2:17:18 PM

what's that thought that goes through your head when you're hanging onto the side of the cliff and your forearms are cramping up?

6/22/2012 1:50:46 AM

"Man, I sure do hope that this moron cokehead stops posting in the stock market thread. It would also be cool if he could run three miles like every other adult."

6/22/2012 11:01:51 AM

Quote :

"what's that thought that goes through your head when you're hanging onto the side of the cliff and your forearms are cramping up?"

never feel like the side of the cliff, but i often feel like this when i put on turbocharged trades such as going long front month calls on 3x etfs:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bflYjF90t7c

6/28/2012 1:42:20 PM

picked up some TYH at 48.3

6/28/2012 3:59:01 PM

got some AET at 39.00 this morn.

6/28/2012 4:03:31 PM

Sold some July naked puts on GOOG at $545 for $13 and some Aug covered calls on WOOF at $22.5 for $.60.

6/28/2012 4:11:29 PM