About to get lit AF in this thread.

[Edited on February 9, 2020 at 6:30 PM. Reason : OEP is actually worse than Earl on this site tbh]

2/9/2020 6:29:47 PM

http://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1226565174007648257

Quote :

" Pete Buttigieg says Democrats should focus on cutting the deficit, which fell under Obama and is soaring under Trump. “The time has come for my party to get a lot more comfortable owning this issue... It’s not fashionable in progressive circles to talk too much about the debt.”"

lol

2/9/2020 6:39:08 PM

Democrats will pretend all is well no matter how far this shit goes. They've already buried their heads deeply in the sand and are prepared to ignore any foul play that occurs.




MSM has been instructed to drop it. Check out this orwellian moment at msnbc
https://twitter.com/Shizzrock/status/1225795044919140352


[Edited on February 9, 2020 at 6:56 PM. Reason : but we're just crazy conspiracy theorists making it all up]

[Edited on February 9, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Reason : he can trumpet alright]

2/9/2020 6:45:37 PM

Lying dog faced pony soldier

2/9/2020 8:01:05 PM

An update for the "who cares" about iowa

Quote :

"NEWS from @hollyotterbein: Jeff Weaver, a senior adviser to Sanders, said that the campaign will request a RECANVASS in specific precincts, calling the IDP's process an "informal review." Weaver also said that they're considering requesting a RECOUNT https://t.co/QxLoWJbyd3"

2/9/2020 11:02:21 PM

Quote :

"Lying dog faced pony soldier"

i saw that video but was having trouble verifying it, is that a real video?

when trying to verify it i read that he has used that exact same insult in the past

2/10/2020 8:38:49 AM

Quote :

""NEWS from @hollyotterbein: Jeff Weaver, a senior adviser to Sanders, said that the campaign will request a RECANVASS in specific precincts, calling the IDP's process an "informal review." Weaver also said that they're considering requesting a RECOUNT https://t.co/QxLoWJbyd3" "

Grand scheme of things, this is kind of ridiculous. I don't know enough about the margin between the final vote count and the SDE's to assign the final delegate, but I imagine it's larger than what any recount at this point could find.

So what's the play here? Maximize their votes so if down the road Convention time it's brokered they're going to flag this "we have a plurality of the national vote"?

[Edited on February 10, 2020 at 12:16 PM. Reason : /]

2/10/2020 12:13:26 PM

the amount in question does exceed the SDE difference

2/10/2020 12:20:16 PM

No one has ever won Iowa and New Hampshire and then lost the nomination. I would imagine that's their line of thought. It builds a strong case going into Super Tuesday.

2/10/2020 12:33:00 PM

Quote :

"No one has ever won Iowa and New Hampshire and then lost the nomination"

How many times has it happened tho?

2/10/2020 12:43:08 PM

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xgqad4/wait-why-did-joe-biden-call-a-woman-a-lying-dog-faced-pony-soldier

Quote :

"(The quote, which is slightly different, comes from the 1949 John Wayne movie She Wore a Yellow Ribbon, according to Slate.)"

2/10/2020 12:43:48 PM

Quote :

"No one has ever won Iowa and New Hampshire and then lost the nomination. I would imagine that's their line of thought. It builds a strong case going into Super Tuesday."

Political fortunes aside it’s also just the right thing to do. Why would anyone not want to look at something so important more closely? I get that everyone wants to jump on narratives but in what will likely be such a close primary every delegate may matter (though I’m not sure I actually believe that, lol).

2/10/2020 12:52:29 PM

^^^
Here's the data:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-do-iowa-and-new-hampshire-really-matter-for-2020/

^
Yeah I don't get the whole thought process behind "it's over, let's move on". They're giving Pete 2 more statewide delegates even though he only has 2 more SDEs. Why just give it to him? A recanvass is simple.

[Edited on February 10, 2020 at 12:59 PM. Reason : .]

2/10/2020 12:56:57 PM

Quote :

"How many times has it happened tho?"

John Kerry, Al Gore, and Jimmy Carter won both in 2004. Hadn't happened since. Never happened on the Republican side during an "open" election year.

[Edited on February 10, 2020 at 1:03 PM. Reason : damn it dave]

2/10/2020 1:03:05 PM

Quote :

"No one has ever won Iowa and New Hampshire and then lost the nomination. I would imagine that's their line of thought. It builds a strong case going into Super Tuesday."

Iowa was practically a closely-fought draw. This is not a first past the post race where plurality gets you everything. It literally does not matter if they find a few more votes there or not if it doesn't change the national convention delegate count. It's a waste of resources of the Sanders campaign if they're paying for this when they could be spending that money on later primaries.

[Edited on February 10, 2020 at 1:58 PM. Reason : /]

2/10/2020 1:57:24 PM

It could change the delegate count from 14-12 to 13-13. Would need a full recount for that though.

2/10/2020 2:00:36 PM

Quote :

"Yeah I don't get the whole thought process behind "it's over, let's move on". They're giving Pete 2 more statewide delegates even though he only has 2 more SDEs. Why just give it to him? A recanvass is simple."

FFS, read the damn rules if you want your opinion to be taken seriously!

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/IA-D

He gets 1 more delegate due to having more SDEs statewide. The 2nd delegate advantage comes from the allocation of delegates based on performance inside the congressional district boundaries (this is something both parties do by the way). They tied in Iowa CD1 2-2. Sanders outperformed Buttigieg in CD2 3-2. Buttigieg outperformed Sanders in CD3 3-2. Buttigieg outperformed Sanders 2-1 in CD4.

If you're on this board I presume you graduated from North Carolina State University. You're capable of understanding math that a high schooler can figure out. If you have an issue with having results set by CD and statewide, take that up with the Democrats' Rules Committee which approved these a couple years ago, with a lot of representation from Sanders supporters.

[Edited on February 10, 2020 at 2:05 PM. Reason : /]

2/10/2020 2:03:30 PM

It will most likely change the national delegate count by one. And more importantly, it's the perception. Voters are highly swayed by the vague concepts of "electability" and rallying around the front runner. The historical effect of doing well in Iowa and New Hampshire makes this worth pursuing going into Super Tuesday. A tie and a win is better than a loss and a win.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/10/politics/iowa-caucuses-recanvass/index.html

Quote :

"The campaign is asking for a recanvass of 25 precincts and three satellite caucuses in the state, arguing that if "errors" are corrected, the Vermont senator would pick up one national delegate. "

Not a massive undertaking.

Quote :

"FFS, read the damn rules if you want your opinion to be taken seriously! "

no

[Edited on February 10, 2020 at 2:07 PM. Reason : .]

2/10/2020 2:05:24 PM

A recanvass can't change the results though, I'm pretty sure

2/10/2020 2:07:13 PM

Why not? The Sanders campaign says they should gain a delegate, making it a tie (assuming it comes from Pete).

2/10/2020 2:09:10 PM

No one cares about Iowa anymore but they should make sure the count is accurate. Not a waste to review this (quietly without spectacle) while the rest of the racers proceed.

2/10/2020 2:10:21 PM

^^ I think the rules say a recanvass can identify errors, but then to fix them you have to go to a full recount.

I don't know, I thought I read that somewhere, but I can't find it. So, who knows?

[Edited on February 10, 2020 at 2:13 PM. Reason : E]

2/10/2020 2:11:35 PM

You could be right, idk either, I'm just going along with what the campaign says.

Overall point (assuming the results can be corrected), is that there are three weeks between NH and Super Tuesday. Whoever has more delegates in that time frame will be reported on as the frontrunner. If Pete is one delegate behind in NH, and the Iowa results remain the same, he's the frontrunner. It's undeniable that it would be a benefit to his campaign. Worth it to try and stop that.

2/10/2020 2:19:55 PM

^^^

2/10/2020 3:00:53 PM

So for New Hampshire tomorrow, there's a 15% vote threshold in order to receive anything from the 2 congressional districts or the statewide vote. Based on polling, you can have anywhere from 2 to 5 candidates clear that threshold. (I doubt 5, 3 or 4 is more likely.) Sanders and Buttigieg seem certain to, while Warren/ Biden/ Klobuchar are a little above/ on the cusp/ in double digits.

Each CD offers 8, while the statewide allocation is based on 3 and 5.

So you could end up with something from Sanders 14-10 Buttigieg to Sanders 8, Buttigieg 7, Warren 4, Biden 3, Klobuchar 2.

2/10/2020 3:03:54 PM

Quote :

"Tom Steyer pledges $22 minimum wage if elected"

https://thehill.com/changing-america/respect/poverty/482346-tom-steyer-pledges-22-minimum-wage-if-elected

Now we are talking! Never mind that this was proposed in SC, where the median wage is just over $16, and only 4 states in the nation have median wages above $22.

2/10/2020 3:11:34 PM

https://twitter.com/rgoodlaw/status/1226958297779048448?s=21

First, the Q poll was huge for Bernie. Solid, outside MoE lead and Biden tanking.

Second, that same Q poll shows ZERO bump to Trump from “acquittal” and actually his head-to-heads look WORSE. He simply can’t get his approval average above 43-44 (or below 39-40).

2/10/2020 3:15:53 PM

^^^isn't that how every primary and caucus operates?

[Edited on February 10, 2020 at 3:20 PM. Reason : E]

2/10/2020 3:20:23 PM

This video is going around because of the way too on the nose symbol of the Iowa Democratic party's bumbling nature. but also, just like every other time I've read it, when he mentions recanvassing he also mentions a recount. That's part of why I think that you have to do a recount in addition to a recanvass to change anything.

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1226977302711611392?s=19

2/10/2020 5:35:37 PM

^^^^ jesus fucking christ.

2/10/2020 7:57:41 PM

^^^^^
hell yeah brother.gif

2/10/2020 10:16:55 PM

Maybe one good thing that will come out of this is the Democrats will recognize how idiotic open primaries are.

https://twitter.com/maggienyt/status/1227023046990553089

Quote :

"Maggie Haberman??Verified account? @maggieNYT "I hear a lot of Republicans tomorrow will vote for the weakest candidate possible of the Democrats," Trump says of the crossover primary in NH, where independents can vote in either primary."

2/11/2020 7:59:44 AM

New poll shows pete as only one winning NH over Trump

Eh scrolled back to January for some more positive polls there



[Edited on February 11, 2020 at 9:12 AM. Reason : R]

2/11/2020 9:07:44 AM

^^ no real evidence that hijacking an opposing party primary actually does anything but ok

2/11/2020 10:32:10 AM

Sanders takes the lead

Looks like Bloomberg really screwed Biden.

Audio recording of Bloomberg saying racist things was released but it’s things most white people and some black people think anyway (police should stop and frisk every young black male). Will be interesting to see the impact of this.

[Edited on February 11, 2020 at 11:38 AM. Reason : ]

2/11/2020 11:35:07 AM

I think it's damning enough, but the question is can it overcome half a billion dollars in ad spending? Right now he's siphoning all of the black support Biden is losing.

2/11/2020 12:03:41 PM

lol, 22 dollars an hour

2/11/2020 12:23:23 PM

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/11/804795405/throw-them-against-the-wall-and-frisk-them-bloomberg-s-2015-race-talk-stirs-deba

Quote :

""People say, 'Oh my God, you are arresting kids for marijuana who are all minorities.' Yes, that's true. Why? Because we put all the cops in the minority neighborhoods. Yes, that's true. Why'd we do it? Because that's where all the crime is. And the way you should get the guns out of the kids' hands is throw them against the wall and frisk them," Bloomberg says."

2/11/2020 1:00:39 PM

I just don't get why we are bringing up things Bloomberg said back in the 60s when it was completely normal.

2/11/2020 1:13:45 PM

https://apps.npr.org/liveblogs/20200211-new-hampshire/

Bernie crushing the first 7% of precincts

2/11/2020 8:01:37 PM

Yang's dropping out but will always be in our hearts.

2/11/2020 8:02:26 PM

So who does the yang gang vote for now?

2/11/2020 8:36:19 PM

Tulsi

2/11/2020 8:48:07 PM

Right now Sanders, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar going to get delegates. Warren looks too far off to teach the threshold.

Preliminary delegate estimate from the Green Papers based on the 21% reporting numbers is Sanders 9, Buttigieg 9, Klobuchar 6.

[Edited on February 11, 2020 at 8:55 PM. Reason : .]

2/11/2020 8:50:48 PM

If one of the centrist candidates dropped out Sanders might have some trouble.

2/11/2020 9:30:16 PM

Quote :

"If one of the centrist candidates dropped out Sanders might have some trouble."

Whichever wing of the party manages to coalesce around one candidate first could rack up a bunch of wins in quick succession and seal the deal. If Warren would give it up and throw her share of the progressives to Sanders, he might be able to put this thing to bed fairly early (assuming that most of her support comes from people who prefer her first and foremost for her policies, and not because she is a woman). It wouldn't necessarily be that most people want Bernie, but that the not-Bernie vote would be divided.

I don't know which scenario is more likely; at this point, we're left with a lot of big egos who can plausibly convince themselves that they have a chance.

2/11/2020 10:05:49 PM

if biden does well in SC does that change anything? (i'm assuming he won't do well in nevada, although it's a caucus state so who the hell knows, maybe we have a magic math situation)

or is biden just hoping that a good performance in SC is enough to move him ahead of buttigieg on super tuesday? i'd imagine even with a weak iowa, new hampshire and nevada biden will still do okay in SC, but is that enough? we have to be getting close to the end for biden's campaign, right?

Quote :

"If Warren would give it up and throw her share of the progressives to Sanders"

i'm not sure she would do that at this point, it's apparent she's been getting a lot of advice (bad advice) encouraging her to move towards the center, so i wouldn't be surprised if she reserves her endorsement for whomever takes the nomination

[Edited on February 11, 2020 at 10:16 PM. Reason : .]

2/11/2020 10:08:19 PM

also, it's fucking bonkers that bernie has the current lead with a 100% grassroots movement with zero billionaires and an average donation of like $18. that's historic and the media hardly mentions it (as i type this the discussion i'm seeing is about buttigieg and klobuchar)

if you believe that having a popular movement is important to win in november, then the choice is clear

2/11/2020 10:20:06 PM

To keep things in perspective a bit, I can take the votes of Warren, Biden, Steyer, Gabbard, and Yang who will all get 0 delegates tonight and none of them will be perceived as a good showing, and combined their vote total is larger than what the winner tonight will get.

No change to the estimated delegates. None of them are close to changing. So totals after tonight:

Buttigieg 23, Sanders 21, Warren 8, Klobuchar 7, Biden 6

Majority=33

[Edited on February 11, 2020 at 10:45 PM. Reason : .]

2/11/2020 10:35:24 PM

but it's silly to try to read anything into that beyond there just being a lot of candidates, we don't do ranked choice voting so it's impossible to guess how votes would fall if there were only 2 or 3 candidates

2/11/2020 10:36:34 PM