Precipitation is forecast with temperatures hovering around freezing. It can't be that bad though, it will be warm and wet enough next Sunday to wash away anything frozen.

2/20/2015 12:34:29 PM

Warm and wet?

Everybody imagine I made a hilarious vagina joke.

2/20/2015 12:40:13 PM

moist

2/20/2015 12:43:31 PM

I love @WCPSS

2/20/2015 12:45:05 PM

Quote :

"it will be warm and wet enough next Sunday to wash away anything frozen."

You referring to March 1st? Forecast low that day is 31

2/20/2015 1:10:48 PM

... and the high is 46

2/20/2015 1:14:15 PM

sure is

2/20/2015 4:29:46 PM

I finally wiped out. I was trying to look cute in some slick-bottomed ballet flats, and it turns out I couldn't do anything on the ice. Passers-by had a good chuckle though, and I'm certain I looked 100% composed as I crawled my way out of the icy patch.

2/21/2015 2:12:38 PM

Obviously long term, so take with a grain of salt, but

2/21/2015 3:24:55 PM

Snow needs to hurry up and melt, its starting to look like New Jersey out there

2/21/2015 4:24:59 PM

Weather bug says 50% chance of winter mix tomorrow?

Online hobby mets saying Wed/Thursday this week HEAVY snow but weathering says 50 degrees on those days.

Whats everyone seeing?

2/22/2015 2:37:55 PM

I'm seeing 1-2 inches tomorrow, POSSIBLY snow Thursday that more than one model is in agreement, but best chance of snow Saturday/Sunday.

2/22/2015 3:03:40 PM

Can we get snow and sleet please with sub-18 degree temps so the brine will be ineffective. I dun wanna work!!

2/22/2015 3:32:29 PM

everything i see says rain or barely any snow

2/22/2015 5:43:36 PM

i follow this gut WXrisk on Facebook, and he's been saying that we're due to get slammed Thursday.


I'm just pissed that there's not a consistant, reliable place I can go to get my predictions. They shouldn't vary this much, and there's no fucking reason why 2-3 days before i should be getting two opposite predictions.

2/22/2015 5:53:34 PM

OH I THINK YOU KNOW WHY

2/22/2015 6:45:04 PM

^^ isn't that the guy who is not a meteorologist who reposts worst-case models to get followers?

2/22/2015 7:13:51 PM

Nah, he's the guy who is generally a dick to everyone else who gets it wrong. He is constantly attacking those armchair mets who post crazy forecasts just to get clicks.

[Edited on February 22, 2015 at 7:19 PM. Reason : and I think he is a meteorologist who used to work for the NWS]

2/22/2015 7:17:22 PM

wundergound shows a 60% chance of snow for 11pm Wed to 8AM Thurs but no accumulation and the graphic is just for overcast skies

NWS not forecasting that far yet

2/22/2015 7:22:42 PM

I have only seen it on NC Piedmont Weather, and WxRisk. I haven't seen it on an official weather site. Seems to be a relatively new model trend.

2/22/2015 7:24:51 PM

any "trend" from a model that is still 4-5 days out should be taken with a grain of salt. That thing will more than likely trend multiple different directions before Thursday even gets here.

2/22/2015 7:30:47 PM

yeah i'm not saying i trust the guy over any other source... i mean honestly he can barely communicate intelligibly. I just would like to go to a place like a weather.com and know with some measure of certainty that it is or isn't going to rain/sleet/snow/storm/hail

2/22/2015 8:16:32 PM

Quote :

"I'm just pissed that there's not a consistant, reliable place I can go to get my predictions. They shouldn't vary this much, and there's no fucking reason why 2-3 days before i should be getting two opposite predictions. "

LOL First world problems.

2/22/2015 8:31:55 PM

^^Not gonna happen. Weather is extremely difficult to predict because conditions are constantly changing. Then you add in the area that we live in where just a slight change in temperature on multiple levels of the atmosphere can change the entire precip type. This is probably the most difficult area to predict wintry precipitation.

2/22/2015 8:35:55 PM

im snowed in, starting to get cabin fever

2/22/2015 8:53:44 PM

I follow WxSouth. He can actually type intelligibly and not be a dick to every other meteorologist. I also don't think he goes to alarmist mode to drive clicks.

[Edited on February 22, 2015 at 9:55 PM. Reason : ]

2/22/2015 9:55:04 PM

thursday will be a wash...we'll get precip, but nothing will stick or accumulate with any significance

that said, i'll probably be able to use it as an excuse to work from home

2/23/2015 7:22:16 AM

They already flipped the snow tomorrow to nothing or spotty rain and looks like most outlets/projections have Raleigh missing anything later in the week.

Winter is over! Bring on the warm weather!

2/23/2015 8:23:30 AM

^while I'm one to express caution with these models, I wouldn't give up on Wednesday night before it even begins. Also, nobody has changed projections...everything I read is the same, if not more snowy, as yesterday. Alot is still going to change over the next two days. Just keep an eye on it and keep your expectations low. Best advice I can give

2/23/2015 9:17:29 AM

Guess some of the weather boards I check for snow were basically split on this one. Some were optimistic that we'd get the "perfect" setup and get 3-4 inches of snow, but others were taking a more "realistic" approach. Seemed the consensus was that if you took out some of the outlier models that are throwing a ton of snow at us, we're looking at perhaps 1-2 inches but with it starting as rain and warmer temps on Thursday, not likely to see a ton of accumulation or issues.

2/23/2015 9:26:25 AM

wunderground is showing a 89% chance for snow in Durham starting midnight Wednesday and 97% for Raleigh but the graphics are still just rain

2/23/2015 11:29:42 AM

2/23/2015 12:42:41 PM

NWS probability maps had RDU at 40% for 4" plus which is high in this area for 48+ hours out.

2/23/2015 12:52:50 PM

http://www.ncpiedmontweather.com/2015/02/significant-winter-storm-wednesday-for-nc/

Quote :

"6) Most of NC except Southeast NC will get in on accumulating snowfall"

2/23/2015 2:12:41 PM

Bring it on, let it snow let it snow

2/23/2015 2:17:02 PM

The NAM(no idea what that stands for) model seems to show an ass kicking for NC in terms of snow.

Looking more and more like they are trending towards predicting snow, but it just depends on the amount...seems to be a FAST event but with a LOT of snowfall.

Then again NC is so weird...just a small change in temps or location could cause us to get 6 inches of snow or all rain.

2/23/2015 2:40:01 PM

The outlier forecast calls for 20 inches on the sref.

2/23/2015 3:09:03 PM

lol if this area gets 20 inches of snow we are so fucked

2/23/2015 3:11:18 PM

I would love to see 20 inches of snow, with two-three good days of cold weather, followed by a week in the 70s to melt it all.

2/23/2015 3:13:39 PM

school closed tomorrow in Charleston already (lol) and we're given permission to work from home due to an impending "freezing rain event"

thanks Obama global warming!

2/23/2015 3:33:56 PM

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150223&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=RDU&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=36.65492745772943&mLON=-81.80324233398437&mTYP=roadmap

2/23/2015 3:42:12 PM

NAM = North American Mesoscale Forecast System

or in shorthand, North American Model

^

[Edited on February 23, 2015 at 4:37 PM. Reason : .]

2/23/2015 4:35:52 PM

^^Can you explain what I am supposed to take away from that?

2/23/2015 4:40:37 PM

it means we could be looking at some surprising and large inch #s for this storm

and my penis

2/23/2015 4:41:58 PM

^^that particular model ensemble shows forecasts from 0.10" to 19.30" of snow for this event, with a clustering from 4.3 to 13.6 inches total. A publicized forecast typically follows the cluster.

NE of Raleigh is a little tighter cluster of 6.2 to 9.9.

[Edited on February 23, 2015 at 4:46 PM. Reason : .]

2/23/2015 4:43:50 PM

What that shows is that there is so much divergence in the various models that there isn't much certainty in any forecast.

2/23/2015 4:48:47 PM

so we're looking at a dusting

2/23/2015 5:02:44 PM

we should be so lucky

2/23/2015 5:15:00 PM

A dusting to 20 inches.

2/23/2015 5:17:18 PM

We're looking at Raleigh Dome putting on a career night with all time highs in blocks and steals.

2/23/2015 5:17:42 PM