Quote :

"The perception of ineffectiveness and lack of attractiveness to independents. Too many people who can tolerate Biden think he might die in office but are uncomfortable with the prospect of a Harris presidency."

I asked for specifics, not vibes

5/24/2023 10:34:58 AM

Do specifics really matter in a general election? How many "specifics" did the general public have on Trump prior to the 2016 election? Did that matter?

Vibes matter.

But if you want specifics, pick any one of her nonsensical speeches. You have to give it to her though, she seems to have put herself out there a lot more than Melania, but that isn't necessarily a good thing.

She's like DeSantis...simply not likeable.

5/24/2023 11:21:18 AM

Quote :

"Zero. Trump might offer it but I don't think DeSantis would take it. My guess is Trump brings one of the crazier women on board. Kari Lake? Lauren Boebert?"

Again, hope you are right.

5/24/2023 11:27:09 AM

^^Melania was not the Vice President.

Quote :

"I asked for specifics, not vibes"

Sorry, but I cannot give you that, as I am not one of the concerned. I am also not a national polling organization.

5/24/2023 11:30:52 AM

Quote :

"But if you want specifics, pick any one of her nonsensical speeches."

care to pick one?

5/24/2023 11:45:15 AM

Quote :

"I'd counter that the threat is Trumpism in the White House, not just Trump himself. As you said, DeSantis is offering Trumpism without the Trump. It's not an improvement - and it might be worse. Meatball Ron is probably less erratic, which good, but I also think he has a clearer vision of what he wants to do and how he wants to do it. Given what we've seen of him so far, that's bad. I also think he's more likely to win the general election and less likely to die. Given the choice between Trump and DeSantis, DeSantis is the one who increases the odds of a Trumpist POTUS. As for the GOP flushing Trumpism, I don't know that it's likely to happen through anything other than grinding demographic change. Eventually a bunch of old Republicans will die. Millennials have shown themselves to be much more durably left-leaning as they age than previous generations. Surviving Republicans will have to adapt to survive. But in the near-term? Even if they suffer a shattering 2024 defeat, Republicans are stuck with a base that doesn't believe in the outcome of elections. Maybe after another couple of losses they'll quit engaging in the electoral process and join Proud Boys and other militias to try direct action and then the government can shoot them. But for now, the base is there and the politicians will bow to it in order to survive primaries. "

Agreed that it would be bad that DeSantis would be more competent at implementing Trumpism. I think that would be outweighed by the fact that he would also be much more competent at simply being the chief executive of America--that might be the very worst part about Trump, among all of the terrible aspects of him as POTUS.

I don't think a shattering 2024 defeat would be a panacea. It would take ongoing defeats, and some of them would need to be shattering...but I think that could drive the change without waiting for demographics. I just don't think it's likely.

(the reason I think that is that the power, money, and influence brokers in the party would change course, and the rank and file are rubes. Enough of them will believe whatever and act however the ecosystem tells them to. There would be plenty who didn't, but prob they could be stuffed back into the corner the way they were before.)

...but again, I think that's unlikely.

5/24/2023 11:56:14 AM

My apologies, I meant Pence. He pretty much stayed out of the limelight, probably embarrassed by Trump.

Quote :

"“So, I think it’s very important, as you have heard from so many incredible leaders, for us at every moment in time — and certainly this one — to see the moment in time in which we exist and are present, and to be able to contextualize it, to understand where we exist in the history and in the moment as it relates not only to the past but the future,”"

That's from one of them.

5/24/2023 1:07:02 PM

that’s absolutely meaningless and only ammo for people who already don’t like her

Quote :

" My apologies, I meant Pence."

this is pretty hilarious

5/24/2023 1:49:39 PM

Quote :

"I think that would be outweighed by the fact that he would also be much more competent at simply being the chief executive of America--that might be the very worst part about Trump, among all of the terrible aspects of him as POTUS."

There we disagree. First, that DeSantis is remarkably more competent; I've seen no evidence of that from his time as governor, and plenty of reason to believe the contrary. We're talking about a man who got into the national spotlight by ignoring public health, banning books, "don't say gay," and starting a war with the state's biggest moneymaker. None of these ever offered a mote of benefit for the state of Florida or almost anybody in it. All of it was just red meat for the base. DeSantis is OK at that, though no better than Trump. But it's very different from being an effective executive.

I also disagree that his monumental stupidity was the worst part about Trump. At least that limited his ability to enact his wilder ideas, or, for that matter, to remain in office.

5/24/2023 2:29:37 PM

everything he does is to appease the worst of the base, and his staff is made up of people who hang on 4chan, which is an issue that the entire party has, he just happens to be the face of it

I don’t see it getting any better, and that isn’t even a Trump problem

5/24/2023 2:58:24 PM

Who would you guys like to see run on the right?

5/24/2023 3:03:24 PM

why does it matter who the left wants to run on the right?

they’re comprised of evil, evil people

5/24/2023 3:22:34 PM

I would prob vote for will hurd

5/24/2023 6:14:28 PM

Musk and DeSantis seems like a battle of who can be least charismatic and able to relate to their fellow human

[Edited on May 24, 2023 at 6:39 PM. Reason : And lol that they had tech issues ]

5/24/2023 6:37:45 PM

^^^^ Does it matter? I don't think anyone remotely acceptable has a chance of getting nominated.

5/24/2023 6:47:23 PM

My core problem with Kamala is she always sounds like she’s talking down to people. Not dumbing down what she says, but just says vague pointless doublespeak and acts like no one can tell she’s bullshitting, and so far no one has directly called her on this either.

5/24/2023 10:44:08 PM

Quote :

"they’re comprised of evil, evil people"

Do you honestly think everyone on the right are evil?

5/25/2023 10:36:57 AM

I think they're mainly ignorant and / or selfish. Ignorance is the killer for me.

5/25/2023 10:46:23 AM

^^ they certainly seem happy to support evil

and I wasn’t talking about voters. you were asking about presidential candidates

[Edited on May 25, 2023 at 11:45 AM. Reason : .]

5/25/2023 11:43:50 AM

if rjrumfel can come up with a GOP presidential candidate who completely disavows all forms of bigotry, corporate welfare, and attacks on bodily autonomy, I could maybe reconsider

ain’t gonna happen, though

[Edited on May 25, 2023 at 4:45 PM. Reason : .]

5/25/2023 4:45:27 PM

Elizabeth Warren

Lets do the ultimate test if she is electable vs Biden!

5/25/2023 5:10:14 PM

If we're being serious, there's not much use in describing people as "good" or "evil," because it's very easy to fall into the trap of thinking of them as character traits rather than the changeable sum of a person's actions, which in turn are governed by some combination of nature and nurture. Even if people have free will, it's not like they're saying, "I'm going to be evil." Every dictator thinks he's a hero.

And there's the question of who is "everyone on the right." There's no doubt plenty of people right of center who are voting for moderate democrats. But anyone who would vote for the average Republican congressperson or senator today? I'd say that's an evil act, and I'm willing to use the shorthand "They're evil."

5/25/2023 5:10:54 PM

Quote :

"Every dictator thinks he's a hero."

Does he really, though?

5/25/2023 5:26:53 PM

Quote :

"Elizabeth Warren Let’s do the ultimate test if she is electable vs Biden!"

doubt she’d run as a Republican

5/25/2023 5:55:15 PM

Trump did it.

What do you actually have to do to run with a particular party affiliation and enter their primaries?

5/25/2023 6:13:36 PM

I would seriously consider Warren, but I worry about her push for a green economy. Still too expensive to implement. I'm not like most on the right and I don't poo-poo a green economy outright, But we just aren't there yet. I'm ok with baby steps.

For example, I think it's total bullshit that everyone is subsidizing the purchase of electric vehicles. The people currently buying them don't need the subsidies.

And her healthcare plans (medicare for all) I question because I used her calculator to find out what I pay. I probably pay roughly 10k in healthcare expenses per year for my family, including premiums, etc, and her calculator said I'd save 10k. Where TF is that figure coming from? She doesn't really explain. Does that mean that with my family's income, we wouldn't pay a dime? That's egregious. I'm for expanding healthcare access, as long as it doesn't come at the severe expense of the middle class.

I can't really find shit on what DeSantis would do for national healthcare, just what he's said for FL. I'm not impressed. It's a summary of typical right wing talking points on healthcare.

And we know that Trump would just ignore healthcare altogether.

5/26/2023 8:44:23 AM

Well I appreciate your serious consideration of Warren's potential policies, let me be clear that suggesting Warren as an acceptable Republican candidate was a joke.

5/26/2023 9:14:24 AM

I understand that. I wasn't commenting from that perspective.

I honestly just want a good middle of the road candidate. I don't care where they call home.

I like Youngkin but his support of Kari Lake is troublesome.

5/26/2023 9:45:31 AM

Acceptable candidate range from Warren to Youngkin is a huge range. Youngkin is just slightly to the left of Trump/desantis, while Warren is just slightly to the right of Bernie/aoc (overly simplistic maybe but still!)

5/26/2023 10:25:48 AM

Republican politicians are definitely evil. Lee Atwater has a quote about this, but I honestly didn’t believe they were in back rooms plotting how to harm people.

But after seeing trump and desantis and bill barr and Steven miller, and now Elon musk, being very open about their hatred for transgender people and Black people, I’m convinced they do sit around planning to undermine inclusive democracy to establish a white-Christian ruled* nation.

*they would tolerate the presence of other people as long as wealth and power are concentrated amongst white Christians

There seemed to be a moment of reflection post Obama when they were trying to seem less racist but trump blew all this up. So most Republican politicians are evil, and I think most Republican voters support their evil goals, even if they aren’t explicitly conscious of the levels of harm it takes to achieve and maintain that outcome.

5/26/2023 1:17:07 PM

LOL if anyone thinks Trump is a Christian.

5/26/2023 2:28:01 PM

RFK Jr.

thoughts?

6/28/2023 3:58:32 AM

Not a serious candidate. He should pick Susan Collins as a cross-party running mate and they can have the distinction of the hardest to listen to Presidential ticket in history.

6/28/2023 6:11:56 AM

nut-job

6/28/2023 9:00:51 AM

Funny that his cadre of anti vaxers love steroids/hgh/whatever. Despite being fairly jacked for his age, doesn't appear to be able to/know how to do a proper pushup.

6/28/2023 10:47:27 AM

^^^she can’t help the way she talks

6/28/2023 10:11:09 PM

I can't help the way I hear.

6/29/2023 6:22:28 AM

Desantis seems like he’s crashing and burning. I’m happy to have been wrong about him, but still doesn’t feel in my gut like trump is gonna be the nominee.

[Edited on July 15, 2023 at 11:33 PM. Reason : ]

7/15/2023 11:33:07 PM

Thing is, you not only need a viable Republican alternative to Trump, but you need to consolidate support behind that person. Trump's devotees are fervent and seem like on balance they will be difficult to impossible to peel away, so what's your next theory?

7/16/2023 6:36:31 AM

Tl;dr the gop has to go a few cycles and take the L without trumpists

It took hitler 9 years from the time he tried and failed in a coup, to the time his party succeeded in seizing power. It’s hazardous to use history too much as a template, but I strongly believe the trump wing of the gop is on a quest to setup a white Christian ethnostate by force if needed. Tuberville for example is mad that the military seeks out Black and women leaders— I can imagine 1/6 going differently if top military leaders were trump minded white supremacists.

Also seems clear to me the traditional GOP leaders know trump is an existential threat to democracy. They have to basically imo just ignore those voters— they’re completely disconnected from reality anyway and the only way to reach them is to indulge their delusions, but that’s a binary choice. Can’t do normal politics and trump politics. Tragically there’s a lot of transphobic democrats, so the gop could push for a new alliance between transphobia and other conservatives, and ignore the trumpists, but they would need to do a clean break with trump.

7/16/2023 3:49:49 PM

Christie going for clean break:
https://www.threads.net/t/Cux0-xjJEvr/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

7/17/2023 12:38:36 PM

Everyone should be doing that.

7/17/2023 7:05:32 PM

Better late than never

[quote] Republican senators say they’re worried that conservative populism is beginning to take over the party, becoming more radical and threatening to cause them significant political problems heading into the 2024 election.

https://l.instagram.com/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fthehill.com%2Fhomenews%2Fsenate%2F4098609-gop-senators-rattled-by-radical-conservative-populism%2F&e=AT3gVOC_jEFBYtUV4gx428QzT2WnA_bcKZ-jZI5iwDsfi25XwrNmxeG_nMv1IC-qFCaDXakoIcL5OVL5WFwvhhZQrm3MUiqzpDkHCN9jGqfMbSuOCzxcPV8&s=1

7/17/2023 9:50:17 PM

Quote :

"It’s hazardous to use history too much as a template, but I strongly believe the trump wing of the gop is on a quest to setup a white Christian ethnostate by force if needed."

I agree with most of your post there, but this is something I find a bit absurd.

[Edited on July 18, 2023 at 5:00 AM. Reason : --]

7/18/2023 5:00:19 AM

^ it took 9 years between hitler going to jail, and the Nazi party seizing control of the country-- what happened from the institutions being against him to the entire country supporting him? Then extermination camps a few years later?

It seems like probably very similar to what's happening here, we're on year ~3... rightwing nuts who believe wild conspiracy theories about Jews attacking the white race, start taking over school boards and town councils, and state governments (already happened), they entrench this ideology by removing any diversity programs and removing books and curriculum that teach how horrible slavery and jim crow were (already happened), meanwhile enshrining Confederate monuments, they shift the power to count and certify votes to political entities controlled by right-wing leaders (already happened in some places), and they get the military to go along with all of this (tuberville is working on this right now).

The military was against trump in 2020 and stopped his attempt to seize voting machines as has recently been reported, what happens if Tuberville succeeds in creating a pipeline of white supremacists to military leadership (he recently said white nationalists were just americans if you didn't see that in the news), and a few years from now a losing Republican asks them to send troops to "secure voting machines"-- if they don't push back we have a problem. If we hadn't had a decades long push for inclusiveness in society, it's likely that top military leadership in 2020 might have been more amenable to trump's requests.

All of these safe guards have been gutted at this point. Supreme Court ruled private companies can ignore protected classes to an extent, a judge in texas is now using this basis to say that he can ignore protected classes. The extra wrench in the works is the transgender hatred is bi-partisan. Some of the success the trumpists have seen in local governments have been with bringing in other transphobes to their cause.

7/18/2023 11:49:56 AM

Quote :

"The military was against trump in 2020 and stopped his attempt to seize voting machines as has recently been reported, what happens if Tuberville succeeds in creating a pipeline of white supremacists to military leadership "

Not to minimize the wrongheadedness and danger of shitheads like Tuberville, but it would take a sustained effort, probably over a period of decades, to transform the military into what you describe.

I'll point you directly to the Marine Corp's website:
https://www.quantico.marines.mil/news/news-article-display/article/611510/the-difference-between-oath-of-office-oath-of-enlistment/#:~:text=Both%20officers%20and%20enlisted%20service,according%20to%20regulations%20and%20the



...to support and defend the Constitution...against all enemies, foreign and domestic.

[Edited on July 19, 2023 at 1:49 AM. Reason : ]

7/19/2023 1:02:17 AM

^ doesn’t congress take a similar oath?

Gop went from Rubio and jeb introducing themselves in Spanish, to banning the teaching of systemic racism, in 6 years. And I think your timeline doesn’t factor that they’re likely are already leaders in the military sympathetic to white nationalism and have just kept quiet about it. Tuberville, and other gop laws banning DEI, basically sent up a signal flare that if republicans win again they don’t have to keep quiet anymore.

I’m not saying this is all imminent, but the stakes are very high in defeating trumpism, regardless of what happens to trump himself.

[Edited on July 19, 2023 at 1:18 AM. Reason : ]

7/19/2023 1:16:18 AM

Same oath.

...but they are politicians, and elected and beholden to political winds.

Quote :

"And I think your timeline doesn’t factor that they’re likely are already leaders in the military sympathetic to white nationalism and have just kept quiet about it."

Sure, but they are small in number, particularly among officers.

Quote :

" the stakes are very high in defeating trumpism"

Oh no doubt. It's important to defeat Trump, but that isn't enough. Trumpism has to be destroyed too...and frankly, we can't tolerate those who enable it.

7/19/2023 1:49:27 AM

At this time, I can not predict who I will vote for, other than anyone but Trump.

7/19/2023 11:22:41 PM

yeah, if Trump is the GOP nominee, I will vote Democrat, end of story. Hopefully it's Biden , which is bad enough, but I'd vote AOC or Warren over Trump.

If it's not Trump, then it depends on how bad the nominee is as to whether I'd vote Biden or third party/write-in/abstain. I suppose there's some nominal chance I vote GOP, as that's what I'd really prefer to do, but I think the odds of getting a minimally acceptable nominee are approaching zero.

[Edited on July 20, 2023 at 1:11 AM. Reason : ]

7/20/2023 1:10:14 AM