I start to follow some political critics' channels on YouTube like four years ago. There're some interesting guys popping up as always. It's their times now again.



[Edited on May 27, 2020 at 11:05 AM. Reason : ;]

5/27/2020 10:44:17 AM

^Who do you like? My favorite this past year has been Question Time.

5/27/2020 11:01:26 AM

I've been basically following Glenn Beck since last election, and Peter Schweizer is my new favorite. And they two team up lately.

5/27/2020 11:04:14 AM

Oh...I prefer not to follow alt-right conspiracy theorists.

5/27/2020 11:21:33 AM

Anyway, he's an interesting guy and pretty productive.

[Edited on May 27, 2020 at 11:27 AM. Reason : You think Glenn Beck is a theorist as well? To me he's just a politics mania. ]

5/27/2020 11:27:08 AM

Mania is the right word dang gg shoot

5/27/2020 1:21:16 PM

Glenn Beck is absolutely a conspiracy theorist. Or at the very least loves live within the chaos of that community (which is just as dangerous)

[Edited on May 27, 2020 at 6:07 PM. Reason : -]

5/27/2020 6:07:23 PM

His topics go beyond politics, including science &technology, humanity, entertainment. He is very knowledgeable and diligent. But at this election year, he focuses on politics most of the time.

5/28/2020 8:21:10 AM

^^ Agree that the community is both dangerous and sensitive, especially right now. And he's a commentator and critic. I won't be surprised anyone is disappearing soon.

5/28/2020 9:43:13 AM

Glenn Beck was imploring people to go take their money out of the f'n bank back when COVID-19 first started getting serious. MF wanted a run on the banks.

But that's not why I'm posting.

Trump has lost the black vote. I see no way for him to repair his reputation within the black community. Women outside of his base have long been lost to him. COVID-19 has ruined the economy for the rust belt, so that segment that helped get him elected is most likely gone. He only has his base, which is big, but no way it is big enough to get him elected.

Does anyone see any path for him to stay in the WH? I don't.

6/2/2020 8:21:00 AM

Polling has shown his share of the black vote has grown a little I believe. He still has an electoral college advantage. Polls are a little better (right now anyway) than for Clinton but the margins are going to be thin in the battleground states.

6/2/2020 8:26:12 AM

Quote :

"Trump has lost the black vote"

When did he have it to lose?

He ran on a platform of blatant racism.

[Edited on June 2, 2020 at 8:34 AM. Reason : ^ yup he clearly will lose the popular vote again but who TF knows with this electoral college BS]

6/2/2020 8:32:26 AM

Re black votes btw. He was pretty wrong about 2016 though so who knows.
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1265978658738536448?s=19

6/2/2020 8:39:06 AM

@synapse - it was my impression that Trump held a large majority of the evangelical black vote. I may be wrong but I thought there was strong support for him there. If that's true, I don't see how he still has it.

And I just don't see how he's polling higher. Just can't.

6/2/2020 8:51:39 AM

Where did you get that impression?

Quote :

"According to AP VoteCast, about 8 in 10 black evangelicals who voted in the 2018 midterm elections disapproved of his performance."

https://apnews.com/47b6ce25616284d518f6a9cd04a06c43

[Edited on June 2, 2020 at 8:58 AM. Reason : E]

6/2/2020 8:53:58 AM

Things can change a lot in X months but Biden is the obvious and clear favorite. It wouldn’t even be close right now according to polling aggregations. He is +7 aggregate while Clinton was +2 at the same time. I can’t find the exact source right now but his standing today is actually better, on aggregate than Clinton was in the entire 2016 cycle.

People in general have 2016 PTSD. Which is fine. But it doesn’t change the facts on the ground.

And whatever percentage chance Trump has to win based on any model or algo it will be higher than 0 so he obviously still has a chance.

6/2/2020 9:54:03 AM

That's national polling though right? National polling is only semi relevant.

[Edited on June 2, 2020 at 9:57 AM. Reason : Not to mention there is 5 months to go]

6/2/2020 9:56:06 AM

are trump supporters going out of their way to fuck up polling again

6/2/2020 10:50:14 AM

It’s always difficult to have these conversations because polling is always just a snapshot in time and even well constructed models and algorithms based on scientific polling aggregation methodologies are misunderstood. And then of course you’ll have bad faith actors yelling about 2016 and/or bias... but even state level polling is not really close right now. Here is a sample of battleground recent polling from 538:

AZ: +2, +4, +8
FL: +1, +2, +1
NH: +8
NC: E, E, +2, -3
PA: +9, -5(???), +6, +7,+5
VA: +12, +10
WI: +9(???), +3, +4
GA: +1, -2, +1, -1
MN: +5
MI: +6, +6, +2, +3, +8

This is essentially all the state level polling after May 1. I included VA and GA, even though I don’t necessarily see them as Battlegrounds tbh.

It’s not really indicative of a close race at present. Even if we give FL, GA and NC to him and even WI Biden likely ekes our a win if he flips ME-2, which is likely given Collins’ polling.

6/2/2020 10:54:03 AM

I'm fastening my seat belt b/c a potential transition of power could be coming soon. It could be another wild ride.

6/2/2020 10:58:44 AM

I'd encourage you to look back at the polling from June and November of 2016. Those numbers look very similar with the exception of Arizona and Georgia

6/2/2020 11:03:13 AM

^Yeah, and then FLynn got involved. There's no knowing what skeletons might come pouring out, but the sexual harassment allegations haven't hurt Biden, and the Ukrainian nepotism hasn't hurt him, so I don't know what would.

People were looking for a reason not to vote for Hillary and they got one. But the polls AFTER Flynn's testimony were all within the margin of error in the surprise states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) and correct in all the others.

6/2/2020 1:10:45 PM

You mean comey I assume but nope, I'm looking at polls AFTER the letter.

And btw many of nyms polls are right on that MOE line too

Mi: 2020- 2-8%, 2016- 1-7%
PA: 2020- neg5-9% 2016- 1-7%
WI: 2020- 3-9%. 2016- 1-12%


[Edited on June 2, 2020 at 1:23 PM. Reason : E]

6/2/2020 1:19:35 PM

My feeling based on social media is that trumps support is hurt by his reaction to the protests. Lots of conservatives saying black lives matter, a few people saying they are starting to see what black peoples have been saying. Polling now shows a huge change in viewpoints from a few years ago where a majority of Americans believe police are unfair to blacks people and need reform.

Biden has brought on Castro to advise him on this and has a pretty decent plan now. I think we’ll end up too in a situation where Democrats push for less than what voters really want like they do on most issues where they’re on the right side.


Monmouth poll
NATIONAL POLL: 74% say country is on wrong track, an all-time low in seven years of national Monmouth polling. Up from 60% in last month.

WRONG TRACK by PARTY:
46% REP (28% in May)
78% IND (63% in May)
92% DEM (83% in May)

[Edited on June 2, 2020 at 11:30 PM. Reason : ]

6/2/2020 11:25:14 PM

In favor of the large lead crowd:

Quote :

"Biden+11 in Monmouth adds to a growing body of high-quality national polling showing that Biden's lead has grown quite a but over the last few months Monmouth trend: Biden+3 in March, +4 in April, +9 in May, +11 now. https://t.co/mFOzyPDMNF "

Quote :

"We have a similar trend from ABC/Post this week, which went from Biden+2 in March to Biden+10 now"

6/3/2020 11:11:56 AM

Obv very early but Biden has the electoral votes to win now based on current state leve
Polls, which aren’t even comprehensive

https://www.270towin.com/maps/

6/3/2020 6:42:38 PM

—Bush/Obama statements

—Bush 43 alums create pro-Biden PAC

—Esper breaks with Trump

—Mattis denounces Trump

—two former JCS chairs denounce Trump stunt

—polls show Trump w/double digit deficit against Biden, tied in Texas

6/3/2020 7:41:10 PM

The Fox News OH poll is

It’s RV and with a LV screen it’s probably a dead heat but if Ohio is a dead heat Trump is in landslide loss territory. It means FL, NC and likely GA all go Biden.

I don’t believe that Trump loses OH when push comes to shove but it’s pretty obvious he’s in some trouble as things stand right now. And he can’t make that up by being hidden like in 2016.

6/3/2020 7:48:07 PM

Just another quick note on a new poll that came out. A high-quality Michigan poll has Biden up 53-41. I don’t think it will be that high, but let’s cut it I half and say it was Biden 50-44. That only leaves 6% undecided.

This same pollster had Clinton +4 last poll of 2016, right on edge of MoE. But that +4 was 42-38. So many more undecideds, that broke for Trump.

Main point is 2020 is NOT 2016.

6/7/2020 8:27:29 AM

Undecideds were the same, you left out the 5% for Gary Johnson

But for apples to apples, Clinton had to a similar lead on mar/July but def had way more undecideds, like 15%

6/7/2020 1:01:22 PM

Important note for this year, Libertarians have effectively nominated a nobody this year and don't have as much ballot access.

From an article from late April

Quote :

"At present, neither the Libertarian Party nor the Green Party has qualified for the ballot in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa or Minnesota. Additionally, the Green Party has not secured a place on the ballot in Arizona, Georgia or Nevada, and the Libertarian Party is missing from Maine."

[Edited on June 7, 2020 at 1:28 PM. Reason : a]

6/7/2020 1:23:45 PM

The Bernie campaign really fucked us over. As of February, about half of the other greens I know (53/47% in my FB group poll) had converted over and were putting all their donations towards the campaign. The other half warned us of exactly what was about to happen and were right. This is funding and also registrations that were taken away from the green party. Including myself. Absolutely devastating.

6/7/2020 4:51:18 PM

lol, you support the Green Party?

6/7/2020 5:08:42 PM

Hasn't Earl always said he supports the green party?

6/7/2020 5:43:18 PM

I only pay attention to like 5% of the shit he says, so idk

6/7/2020 5:57:31 PM

I voted for Stein in the last two elections even for years before liberals labeled me a sexist for not voting for Hillary.

I looked back at some earl posts and they were all over the place with very little substance. I see some climate change denial which I never would do and long ago when I was in high school he posted some things that I also believe but you're basically saying "You believe the government should help people get healthcare and education and there once was a guy on this site who also believed that therefore you are the same person".

I did a quick search of earl posts and "green" but nothing came up.

6/7/2020 6:14:49 PM

Someone who is antivaccine and thinks wifi causes cancer, got it

6/7/2020 6:38:00 PM

The Green Party internationally is fine.

In the US it’s a bunch of grifters and cons.

Sadly.

6/7/2020 6:41:13 PM

Its funny how you'll find the least little thing to criticize the green party over and every little slight mishap is an absolute dealbreaker but with your party, you're able to overlook mountains of harmful policy from the past and present and suddenly apply "less evil logic". Its not honest, its not consistent and its not even effective. It its one thing though. Convenient. Shame on you...and shame on us for trying to take the easy way out by joining you instead of continuing to invest in the slow build.

If someone is going to make a mistake, how dare that mistake be irrational caution over the safety of children. Fuck anyone who prefers mistakes like trillions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of innocent lives. They will put the whole planet on the line, everyones lives on the line and always err on the side of protecting corporate profits.

The worst part of that take is that its probably the right caution just for the wrong reason.
https://www.businessinsider.com/silicon-valley-parents-raising-their-kids-tech-free-red-flag-2018-2

"If no other candidate is perfect, I'm going to keep choosing the candidate that is just a tad bit less fucked up than the worst candidate of all time".

[Edited on June 7, 2020 at 6:59 PM. Reason : this take is why acceleration might be the best path forward. liberals might be beyond repair]

6/7/2020 6:57:30 PM

6/7/2020 7:56:08 PM

Quote :

"The Green Party internationally is fine. In the US it’s a bunch of grifters and cons. Sadly."

I'm not a Green Party member but you have no idea what you're talking about.

6/7/2020 9:08:37 PM

lol, why is that not surprising. The Green Party in the US is basically if a bunch of essential oils people got together and formed a political party.

6/7/2020 9:31:45 PM

I voted for Nader in 2004. Seemed like a good idea at the time.

6/8/2020 12:10:55 AM

^ Nader wasn’t bad and is not even in the same stratosphere as Jill Stein.

But I am can admit I shouldn’t judge an entire organization by the misdeeds of one person. The party in this country can’t be taken seriously, though until they at least get ONE seat in an upper or lower state legislature.

Maybe they have some good grassroots people but it’s not like it’s a new fledgling party.

(But maybe my critique is best aimed at a system that disincentivizes collaboration between multiple parties).

[Edited on June 8, 2020 at 7:32 AM. Reason : C]

6/8/2020 7:31:55 AM

Quote :

"That basically gives us a full 'wave' of the major national polls for the first time since 3/15-4/15, and Biden's lead has grown by an average of 4 points since then https://t.co/PV2MTuXKSy"

6/8/2020 10:08:12 AM

Biden just needs to remain 1% more likable than Hillary to win. It doesn't seem that hard.

6/8/2020 12:19:44 PM

assuming everyone votes the same as they did in 2016?

6/8/2020 12:32:19 PM

Yes, that is the assumption. But it’s a near certainty that more than a few suburban women will vote Biden who voted Trump last year.

In all honesty, Trumps only hope is to continue his improvement on Hispanic voters (especially Cubans and Venezuelans) and run an all out smear/voter suppression campaign to depress African American turnout. Even with that, he’d need thread the electoral college needle again.

I really don’t see a path other than that.

6/8/2020 12:35:59 PM

I think the biggest swings will be 2016 Trump voters who don't vote at all this time, and people who didn't vote in 2016 showing up for Biden.

Those will be far more significant than people switching their vote from last time.

6/8/2020 12:42:56 PM

Quote :

"I voted for Nader in 2004. Seemed like a good idea at the time."

I wrote him in in 2000. No regrets for that specific instance because W still handily beat Gore even with all the third-party votes added.

6/8/2020 1:20:55 PM