They'll announce after the 5pm warnings update tomorrow whether they're going to order residents out of Dare co.

8/24/2011 8:01:05 PM

^ where are you? I live in Kitty Hawk village.

8/24/2011 9:13:35 PM

We live in Morehead City.

Girlfriend lives in Emerald Isle.

We're all getting pretty worried.

8/24/2011 9:38:40 PM

i wonder how this is going to impact Elizabeth City. Wondering if I need to drive up and get my dad checked into the hospital for the weekend...

8/24/2011 9:46:23 PM

anyone going down there?

8/24/2011 10:15:25 PM

it keeps looking more and more to me like its gonna hit EI/IB/AB full on.

I've had a bad feeling about it from the get go.

8/24/2011 10:49:42 PM

^Otherwise known as the JT3 model forecast.

8/24/2011 11:05:27 PM

precisely.

8/24/2011 11:29:48 PM

The track definitely seems to have moved west the last three or so updates. Not significantly but enough that the OBX have got to be worried...

Just peaked at the 0Z GFS... and all I have to say is wow. First off, it's more west so NC coast takes direct hit but in an even worse scenario NYC takes a near direct hit from what would be a Cat 1 still. That's near disaster right there.

[Edited on August 25, 2011 at 12:25 AM. Reason : but still a lot of time to go]

8/25/2011 12:01:58 AM

So my question is, what about the storm in NYC is a disaster? Are we talking floods or what?

8/25/2011 1:51:47 AM

I was gonna ask the same thing.

at least now if they do get it we will be like ahhhh we get these all the time, you yankees dont know how to drive in a hurricane.

bout time they shut up about snow.

[Edited on August 25, 2011 at 1:55 AM. Reason : f]

8/25/2011 1:54:37 AM

My roommates and I are (as of right now) are going to ride it out in the house...if it looks like Irene is going to come more west than the predictions now I will not hesitate to leave...
I have been through Cat 3 hurricanes before, but never on the island and most definately never in an ocean front house.

My plan right now is to have my shit that I would take with me if I do decide to evacuate ready to go. That way if I do need to in a hurry I just gotta put my shit in my car and bounce.

I also don't think I'll be doing too much drinking during that, I want to be able to drive if I need to be able to, I also want to be sober if something big goes down.

But I will be giving my tww action news updates as long as the power allows, I will also update from my cell phone after the power is gone....

8/25/2011 2:54:45 AM

Things have been looking grim for NYC/Long Island for a while. Apparently the mets there are hardly acknowledging it either. Could be really bad there.

8/25/2011 3:05:36 AM

I predict by the time it gets near NYC, it is tropical storm status or lower...vertical shear/cold waters will weaken it rapidly in the next few days

8/25/2011 5:38:55 AM

clcluppe: I live off Kitty Hawk road.

We're prepared to stay or go. If it stays a low end cat 3 we will as well, but if it borders a 4 or up, were off for a weekend with elkaybie & jlancas03

[Edited on August 25, 2011 at 7:16 AM. Reason : .]

8/25/2011 7:03:24 AM

it could do a lot of damage in nyc because of the tall buildings not designed to withstand hurricane force winds. I cat 1 would probably blow out all the upper windows since wind speed increases a lot with height even only scyscraper height.

I don't think surge is a concern at all for them in this storm with the angle its coming in at but if a hurricane ever came in from the east it would flood the shit out of Manhattan and take months to pump out the subways.

8/25/2011 7:17:34 AM

^ ... ok mambagrl

8/25/2011 7:21:54 AM

Quote :

"at least now if they do get it we will be like ahhhh we get these all the time, you yankees dont know how to drive in a hurricane. bout time they shut up about snow."

HA! I just about spit out my breakfast.

I saw one of those "doomsday scenarios" on NatGeo or something the other day about NYC getting a hit from a major hurricane. It said the worst thing would be the storm surge, and how salt water would get into all the subway systems. Also mentioned the blown-out windows.

8/25/2011 7:37:09 AM

Quote :

"I was gonna ask the same thing. at least now if they do get it we will be like ahhhh we get these all the time, you yankees dont know how to drive in a hurricane. bout time they shut up about snow"

What kind of dumb shit would drive in a hurricane? Probably someone from the south

^&^^^It would take a lot more than a Category 1 to blow out skyscrapers' windows in NYC. It would appear they didn't increase the building code (now equal to Miami's) till 2008 so yeah, a lot of windows could be damaged. Still, the biggest concern would really be storm surge, since most of NYC isn't much over sea level.

[Edited on August 25, 2011 at 8:35 AM. Reason : k]

8/25/2011 8:09:01 AM

Keeps on shifting westward...this shows the same time from the last 4 runs. Trend is clearly west.

8/25/2011 9:30:47 AM

Bleh. Guess I will actually go get some supplies (not milk sandwiches).

8/25/2011 9:38:35 AM

^^^how much wind load are the NYC skyscrapers' windows supposed to be rated for? I would think that the higher you go up the building, the higher the expected winds would be - similar to mountains.

8/25/2011 9:54:50 AM

Jax I'm off KH Road too... Poor Ridge to be exact. stay safe!!

8/25/2011 10:23:45 AM

Quote :

"Keeps on shifting westward...this shows the same time from the last 4 runs. Trend is clearly west."

At the current rate, how far west will this shift before it gets here?

8/25/2011 10:41:02 AM

Dare county is ordering the locals out at 8 am tomorrow.

^^Edgerton ct here

8/25/2011 10:44:23 AM

^^^^I'd imagine the newer buildings made in the last 15 years would all be fine in a Category one. Older ones, beats me. (talking about windows)

[Edited on August 25, 2011 at 10:56 AM. Reason : ^]

8/25/2011 10:47:54 AM

Jax only 15 minutes left to buy alcohol!!!

8/25/2011 10:50:44 AM

Quote :

"I'll just be like dude the best place to be is on the beach nothing can fall on you! Maybe I should make some fake media credentials and roll in an unmarked white van! I should probably take the free candy sign off the side first though. Maybe throw up a TWW Action News sticker."

Depends on what beach and which direction the wind is coming from.

Quote :

"It's not THAT the wind is blowin'. It's WHAT the wind is blowin'."

8/25/2011 11:09:10 AM

Oh were prepared

8/25/2011 11:31:53 AM

Looks like it's west again. Morehead/AB in the crosshairs for landfall. It's pretty massive so Raleigh might feel some effects.

8/25/2011 11:34:47 AM

What are the chances of it moving farther west?

8/25/2011 11:39:56 AM

It appears the current eyewall replacement cycle is about complete as the eye is now showing up again on satellite imagery. We could be at the start of some re-intensification.

8/25/2011 11:40:02 AM

haven't they been calling for it to go CAT4 then back to CAT3 right before landfall?

8/25/2011 11:51:15 AM

if it stays Cat 3 then my relatives will probably stay in Nags Head and Manteo, but if it goes Cat 4 then I might be getting some visitors for the weekend.

8/25/2011 12:03:25 PM

Quote :

"Oh it's good Scottish weather, madam. The rain is falling straight down. Well, slightly to the side like. … "

8/25/2011 12:21:12 PM

I don't understand the ins and outs of the models but the 11 am update has NGFDL and GFDL directly through Raleigh... Why so different?

8/25/2011 12:39:00 PM

Anybody else in here from Carteret County? I think we are just going to ride it out.

8/25/2011 12:41:49 PM

My in-laws live in Beaufort. We'll prob have them up in Raleigh for the weekend.

8/25/2011 12:44:05 PM

Damn, guess I'll go buy some bread.

8/25/2011 1:12:35 PM

beer, batteries, battlestar galactica

I'm all set

8/25/2011 1:15:54 PM

http://darenc.com/EmgyMgmt/Alert/index.asp

8/25/2011 2:36:42 PM

^^Don't forget bears and beets

8/25/2011 2:44:13 PM

8/25/2011 2:49:02 PM

Carteret County here, Morehead City, where landfall is projected. I live on the water too.

Thinking about taking my Mom and Aunt and dog and going to Raleigh. My dad is a local radio broadcaster so he has to stay no matter what--not looking forward to that.

Asking a lot of my Morehead friends, who aren't taking this seriously (they're dirt poor crack addicts as many Morehead City locals are), to get prepared.

8/25/2011 3:06:35 PM

shit the latest US Navy (nogaps) model has it coming within 70 miles of raleigh


GDFL has it ~100 miles from raleigh

[Edited on August 25, 2011 at 3:10 PM. Reason : !]

8/25/2011 3:09:47 PM

Look, I love hurricanes more than anyone, but I have a damn storage building to construct and this thing was supposed to only give us some clouds and a nice breeze!

8/25/2011 3:15:23 PM

Quote :

"Major Hurricane Irene poses an extraordinary threat and is one that no one has yet esperienced from North Carolina to the mid-Atlantic to the Northeast to New England."

Yep you are right TWC no one in these parts has EVER experienced a hurricane like this. We were all born after 1996 obviously.

8/25/2011 3:19:28 PM

Or Yankees...

*adds to the extraordinarily long list of reasons why The Weather Channel is such complete rubbish.

8/25/2011 3:23:02 PM

^^ maybe they just meant it hasn't reached those places yet

8/25/2011 3:26:11 PM

im sure they just left out the "this year" tag or the "in x years" part to that statement

8/25/2011 3:32:32 PM