I don't see that doing much at this point. They've already lowered the rate to 0% essentially. The next day is durable orders and Initial Jobless Claims. A number quite a bit bigger than the estimate, which I think is a real possibility, think 700k, would definitely move the market down.

1/27/2009 11:18:18 AM

God damnit. I dunno why I fiddled around on FAS all day. I read some stuff late day that led me to believe it will rally tomorrow on the FOMC news (contrary to what I just posted) and never got around to putting in my 400 share order for it. It's now up 12% after hours and I think it might just run a bit higher tomorrow when the FOMC says they'll expand the scope of their programs and quantitative easing. fuck

1/27/2009 6:19:12 PM

Figures. I was going 1000 shares deep into FAS this morning ahead of the FOMC, would have made a fast and healthy return. I'm hoping since the market is up so big early that there will be an early round of profit taking. From there, shorts will start covering which should begin the march higher. Hopefully, I can get in there (though not for 1000 shares) I wouldn't be surprised if we end this day up 3-4%.

1/28/2009 8:55:54 AM

went ALL IN on FAS at $9.00 2 days ago. WOOHOO

so i ended up moving a lot of my money to my Roth IRA to trade with and have made all my money in that, so with my writeoff on my regular account for being down, i end up needing only another 8% in my IRA to break even for everything

[Edited on January 28, 2009 at 9:41 AM. Reason : ]

1/28/2009 9:31:54 AM

Thats great. Wish I was as lucky as you.

I'm gonna move into FAS today when it retraces to 10.40 or 10.50. I figure it will take about an hour to get there.

1/28/2009 9:46:07 AM

i may sell and buy back in at some point. i have a stop at 10.80 but may move it lower. i don't think my money will clear until friday morning - so i could lose out big if i sell now for a short dip.

1/28/2009 9:51:20 AM

You could always take partial profit now. It might be worth to hanging on to it heading into the FOMC. You wouldn't want to get stopped out on a pullback ahead of that and then see the rally fire again and shoot it up even more. It depends a good bit on what the volume looks like. There was a spike to open (compared to ALL of yesterdays volume) then an even bigger one after that, followed by another big spike and now the volume has pulled back, with the stock still elevated. Having seen that now, I don't expect it to pull back to my target for awhile if at all before the FOMC. So, I'll have to figure out another entry point.

1/28/2009 9:55:06 AM

yeah i've got $2200 left to trade with - maybe sell that high and buy back in if it does drop - dunno though - kinda don't care enough to do it - may just buy the extra 2200 if it dips and keep it all in

[Edited on January 28, 2009 at 10:13 AM. Reason : ]

1/28/2009 10:02:41 AM

Wow, amazing how absolutely dead the FAS volume is waiting on this annoucement. I put an order for 200 in at 12.10 with a stop set real tight at 11.80. It's a pure gamble play. If the market rockets up I'm good, if it dips, I'm not out much.


Doesn't look like it's gonna work.


Well, now both of them have some life, FAZ and FAS...with FAS heading north.

[Edited on January 28, 2009 at 2:17 PM. Reason : .]

[Edited on January 28, 2009 at 2:19 PM. Reason : .]

1/28/2009 2:13:52 PM

my stop mkt is at 12 now. was at 12.50 a few mins ago, at 12.22 now.

1/28/2009 2:29:16 PM

Whew. I sold naked Feb 45 calls on FAZ a while back and almost shit myself when it hit 80.

But now it looks like I'll keep my shirt and maybe even make some money on it.

1/28/2009 2:29:49 PM

Yeah, the volume picked up around the announcement, it is back to quiet again. I think I'm going to nibble on some FAZ as profit taking into the end of the day takes place.


^ So, in that instance, any idea why someone wouldn't want to exercise that option? What was the premium on them?

[Edited on January 28, 2009 at 2:35 PM. Reason : .]

1/28/2009 2:30:27 PM

out of FAS... 33% in 2 days all in

now contemplating FAZ for a couple days...

[Edited on January 28, 2009 at 2:47 PM. Reason : ]

1/28/2009 2:45:21 PM

I think I'm just gonna sit tight on my last SSO buy. Today has been a nice run-up, but neither the S&P nor the DJIA are really that high...I mean, 8300 Dow? I'm still comfortable sitting on it, knowing that there could very well be a pullback from today before it runs up any more.

1/28/2009 2:47:46 PM

^^^ $5.00.

Just lucky I guess.

I'll probably buy to close once the premium drops below $5. It's around $5.80 right now.

[Edited on January 28, 2009 at 2:49 PM. Reason : .]

1/28/2009 2:49:21 PM

bought some FAZ just for fun until my main money clears on Thursday afternoon.

1/28/2009 3:02:37 PM

I dunno man. I don't trust that the government won't underreport GDP slightly which would cause this rally to have some more legs.

1/28/2009 3:07:39 PM

^^^ Screw it. I just bought in at $42. If it gets called away I'm still making $8/share.

1/28/2009 3:21:43 PM

So now you think the market is going to plunge again? Which would cause FAZ to rise, at which point you could buy the option back if you wanted and sell the shares yourself (assuming it goes higher than $53?)?


(trying to learn option strategy on the fly here by trying to understand what you are doing)

[Edited on January 28, 2009 at 3:28 PM. Reason : .]

1/28/2009 3:27:03 PM

^ Dunno. I'm just fairly exposed right now. I wasn't expecting FAZ to jump like it did so I had Jan and Feb calls at $45. It got called away at $45 in Jan and left me naked on my Feb calls. If it doesn't get called away my bottom line is already down to $37/share thanks to the $5 premium. At that point I'm free to sell March calls at $45, $40, or even $35 if the premium is good.


I just figured that right now I could buy the options back at $5.80 and lose $0.80/share or I could just buy enough FAZ to cover the naked call.


News to me:
http://www.direxionshares.com/etfs

Direxion has 8 more 3X ETFs.

[Edited on January 28, 2009 at 3:40 PM. Reason : .]

1/28/2009 3:34:58 PM

Yeah, I think back in the December time frame ERX/ERY was the popular combo because oil was still being whipsawed. After oil seemed to find it's bottom I noticed people started switching to FAS/FAZ. I was aware of the TNA/TZA BGU/BGZ combo, but I didn't realize the additional 4 combos existed. I took a look at those combos and the volumes are too low to be seriously traded.

1/28/2009 3:47:21 PM

Will I managed to make it to close with a new high score for my account or will it fall off at the very end and disappoint me

1/28/2009 3:49:04 PM

^^^^

I would expect there is a solid chance as soon as a new stimulus is passed the market should begin another plunge.

[Edited on January 28, 2009 at 3:49 PM. Reason : .]

1/28/2009 3:49:05 PM

Quote :

"I took a look at those combos and the volumes are too low to be seriously traded."

Agreed. I love these ETFs just for the options and the volume is too low for that as well.

I just saw the 4 new combos today and wanted to pass it on to tww.

1/28/2009 3:54:06 PM

^^regardless of whether a spending bill pushing $1 trillion is good policy, half of why the markets gained today is because of progression towards the next round of bailouts/stimulus (with the other half being the Fed's comments on interest rates).

1/28/2009 4:05:46 PM

Quote :

"half of why the markets gained today is because of progression towards the next round of bailouts/stimulus (with the other half being the Fed's comments on interest rates)"

Eh, maybe 2/3s and 1/3. The market gapped open and was up 20 points in the S&P from yesterdays close within minutes off of news after the close yesterday about a possible plan to set up a "bad bank" and stern statements from Geithner against nationalization. The other 9 points you could attribute to the FOMC minutes however the market was already at what it closed at (the S&P anyway) before the news was released.

The stimulus is being baked in slowly each day, and slama could be right, we'll see an immediate sell off when the news is announced. The thing is, we have last weeks initial jobless claims and December GDP standing between us and the stimulus news.

1/28/2009 4:19:37 PM

New all time high in my account at close woot (do not mistake this for me actually being in the positive lol)

1/28/2009 4:36:29 PM

The lows aren't in yet. Don't be a stupid fuck. There's a good chance the financials are going to zero.

They will drag a lot of other sectors down too.

The market needs confidence yet there is none to be found.

1/28/2009 9:59:09 PM

sold some FAS today for $3K profit

still holding some though, hopefully it wont tank tomorrow

[Edited on January 28, 2009 at 11:51 PM. Reason : /]

1/28/2009 11:50:00 PM

As long as it finds enough confidence to get my stocks in the green so I can sell before this tank you say is coming then I am ok with that.

1/29/2009 8:23:06 AM

bought puts on bac, wfc, and jpm yesteday.

1/29/2009 8:32:12 AM

FAZ up 10% sold at 43.50. got my other money back to trade with so waiting on a good play

[Edited on January 29, 2009 at 9:33 AM. Reason : ]

1/29/2009 9:27:53 AM

sold all my puts (+33%, +25%, +34%).

1/29/2009 10:36:46 AM

FIVE O do you mind explaining exactly what you did? i have yet to engage in buying/selling PUTS so just curious

1/29/2009 11:11:03 AM

PM sent

1/29/2009 11:50:23 AM

to buy or not to buy FAS below 11? (currently at 10.60, sold out yesterday over 12).

1/29/2009 12:58:52 PM

bought FAS at 9.81. will sell early if down tomorrow i guess. too scared to go all in this time

If it drops much i may average down at the low if i can watch it all day and ride it back up.

[Edited on January 29, 2009 at 4:13 PM. Reason : ]

1/29/2009 4:00:31 PM

Picked up a bit more GE today.

Sold puts on HON since all of mine was called away 2 months ago.

1/29/2009 4:02:32 PM

bought wfc calls.

1/29/2009 4:09:17 PM

bought twm yesterday and resold today and picked up some uwm at almost the bottom it hit today

1/29/2009 6:02:22 PM

already scared about FAS opening much lower

1/29/2009 7:33:24 PM

yeah i was thinking about buying some FAS before the closing bell but I decided to wait til morning. I'm gonna go half in at open bell tomorrow if I can get it at $9 or a little less, then average down until it bottoms out (hopefully no lower than $7.50), riding it out til at least $13.50 this time

1/29/2009 11:01:39 PM

GDP numbers come in better than expected, futures popped but retreating again now

1/30/2009 9:05:42 AM

bought into FAS yest at 9.81, sold at 10.40, gonna get back in here soon and make another 5-10% hopefully. slow but steady gets my mother fucking money back.

1/30/2009 10:02:10 AM

picked up another 550 shares of FAS at $9.50, saved some cash this time so I can average down if it hits $5-$7

here's to hoping Obama will save the financial system without nationalizing the banks

1/31/2009 12:10:05 PM

You guys ever do any option spread trading? I've been looking to add it to my repertoire but I am not really ready to do any trading yet (thinking about some puts on FAS though). Anyway, I was looking at the "bull call spread" strategy and thought I found something odd. Typically, your maximum loss with this should be the price of your in the money call less the price of your written put. Max profit being the spread between these two strike prices less your initial debit. However, I was looking at the last trades for the April options for FAS, and the April10 puts are last traded for 10c more than the April7.50 calls. Is this free money? Anyone that dabble in options know something I am missing?

1/31/2009 10:20:11 PM

Jesus, disregard that last post as the bull call spread DOES NOT involve selling a put while purchasing a call.

2/1/2009 8:15:54 AM

I don't think Jesus reads this thread anymore

2/1/2009 9:05:26 AM

He certainly hasn't been guiding me while I make trades.

2/1/2009 9:07:09 AM

I have a bad feeling about this week and finally testing those november lows, hopefully I am wrong about this like I usually am.

2/2/2009 8:57:07 AM