Admittedly, I haven't been following this Nunes memo thread as closely as I should be, but assuming it gets released, and Trump cleans house in the FBI, doesn't that just buy him time? It's not like any of the evidence Mueller has been collected is going to be completely erased and disappear. Am I missing something?

2/1/2018 2:58:17 PM

It depends on how it shakes out but the belief right now is that Trump would ask Rosenstein to fire Mueller. Rosenstein would instead, resign. His deputy would take over the FBI. Trump would ask him. He'd resign. At some point there may be someone in the line of succession who is willing to do as Trump asks.

In that case, Mueller is fired. Then it's 50/50 right now as to whether Congress passes legislation to 1) reinstate him and 2) make him a true Independent Counsel.

I'm inclined to believe that even in the Senate the GOP would join Democrats in that manner. The House I suspect is 50/50. I'm utterly astonished that Paul Ryan has let this nonsense with Nunes go on for as long as it has.

Either way, if somehow it ends up at a point where the DOJ drops the investigation I would expect a lot of information to be leaked to the press. After that, who knows.

2/1/2018 3:01:33 PM

https://www.axios.com/rising-white-house-fear-nunes-memo-is-a-dud-1517518110-483bac89-a164-4aa9-8841-97f6d3329005.html

Quote :

"There is much more skepticism inside the administration than has been previously reported about the value of releasing the memo, according to sources familiar with the administration discussions. ... there are a number of people in the White House who are fairly underwhelmed, and there's internal anxiety about whether it's worth angering the FBI director and intelligence community by releasing this information."

2/1/2018 4:59:45 PM

I really think the plan was to never release the memo at all, citing national security concerns, and just continue hyping it's "damning" revelations through conservative media. Problem is it got caught up in their own bullshit feedback loop and now they have to release in order to satisfy the demands of their own base.

2/1/2018 5:16:15 PM

^That is not hard to believe at all.

2/1/2018 5:33:20 PM

It was reported a week or so ago that Rick Gates was obtaining the counsel of a new attorney, which could indicate that he may have been seeking a plea deal. It's now being reported that his three previous attorneys have abruptly stopped representing Gates.

2/1/2018 5:50:12 PM

Every indication right now is that the trump team is in deeeeep deep shit.

What outcomes are we even expecting? The 2 guilty pleas, the original (Carrollo or something ), the news on carter page being watched for years, now this gates thing... seems bigger than maybe we even realize

2/1/2018 6:04:49 PM

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/01/politics/rick-gates-attorneys-withdraw/index.html

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/attorneys-for-paul-manafort-associate-rick-gates-withdraw-from-case/

Quote :

"Attorneys for Rick Gates, an associate of former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort, have requested to withdraw from his case. They have filed their reasons under seal. All of Gates' attorneys of-record, that is, the ones who have entered appearances with the court, are seeking to withdraw from the case. Attorneys Shanlon Wu, Walter Mack, and Annemarie McAvoy are all seasoned trial attorneys. Gates has reached the point in his case at which he must decide whether or not to pursue a plea deal. The fact that three experienced trial attorneys want off the case, suggests that Gates may be pursuing a plea deal. "

2/1/2018 6:20:35 PM

^^ I'd still be surprised if there was any meaningful collusion (though I'm curious to know who knew what when about the DNC emails). I think it'll mostly be a lot of sleazy people whoose sleazy chickens are coming home to roost, with some healthy scoops of money laundering and a light obstruction of justice on the side.

I really want to know about the campaign money routed through the NRA.

2/1/2018 7:00:52 PM

Quote :

"I'd still be surprised if there was any meaningful collusion"

As opposed to non-meaningful collusion?

Quote :

"light obstruction of justice"

Light obstruction of justice would be obstruction to prevent someone from being fined for jaywalking. This "light" obstruction is an attempt to prevent our nation's counterintelligence and law enforcement officials from determining if anyone committed treason (and I'm using this word in the context of the spirit of the word and not the legal sense).

If you attempted to rob the Federal Reserve and failed, that would be a non-meaningful robbery and yet you'd be serving time in Federal Prison.

It doesn't matter whether it worked or not. It doesn't matter whether it was intelligence being passed or physically changing votes. The accusation is that Donald Trump and his friends sought, received and welcomed the help of a foreign enemy intelligence agency to win an election in exchange for changing America's behavior towards that agency's nation.

If any part of that is true, he deserves to be out at a bare minimum and depending on the extent of activity, thrown in prison for the rest of his life. If none of it is true, the FBI will certainly let us know and then we can go on with our lives.

And as an additional point - the cover-up and interference attempts alone, whether he is behaving this way because he thinks this is a conspiracy or whether he is trying to cover up his own misdeeds is perfect reason to proceed aggressively with this investigation.

I am 100% for not jumping the gun without evidence but when people say "I don't expect anything to come of this" they are missing the entire point. Our President is literally trying to kill a counterintelligence investigation. In what universe is that acceptable for anyone irrespective of who the target/s of the investigation are?!

[Edited on February 1, 2018 at 7:57 PM. Reason : a]

2/1/2018 7:53:49 PM

I was reading back a few pages to get up to speed and I want to address this real quick:

Quote :

"There is just zero evidence, circumstantial or other, the Clinton Foundation used those donations on her campaign."

The argument is that Clinton Foundation donors received special treatment from Clinton as Secretary of State. As such, donors would also receive special treatment from her as president. There have been numerous instances where donations lined up suspiciously with her actions as SecState. And why do you think donations dropped 42% if it's purely about charity?

https://theintercept.com/2016/08/26/clinton-foundation-spin/
https://nypost.com/2017/11/18/donations-to-clinton-foundation-plunged-along-with-hillarys-election-defeat/

Not to mention the fact that our Trump-slaying heroes in the FBI have opened a new investigation:
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/367541-fbi-launches-new-clinton-foundation-investigation

I'm not trying to deflect here, I'm just trying to illustrate that Trump is not the problem, he's the current figurehead. I hope he goes down in flames, but I can point to a disturbing amount of other politicians who should do the same. And that's why I'm tired of hearing about this shit, because Democrats, Republicans, and probably the FBI themselves, are completely happy with the way things are.

2/1/2018 8:07:45 PM

Clinton has her own thread k thx bye

2/1/2018 8:44:47 PM

^^You're right, and others ITT have made similiar arguments:

Quote :

"If you think Hillary is guilty AF, there is common ground here. If we could address these issues we could greatly reduce the potential of more Trump/Hillarys: -The FEC is completely broken, and can't even enforce our current shitty campaign finance laws -Campaign finance reform in general -FARA compliance, and similiar laws I'm probably not even familiar with -Scam charities that the rich seem to use as slush funds -Cybersecurity, both the public and private realms need to have discussions about this -Transparency/FOIA compliance, email archiving, etc for public officials -Weird/Selective leaking, especially by congress people for what usually feels like very partisan reasons Don't we want the same things?"

But it's hard not to get wrapped up in the immediate train wreck happening right in front of us. First of all because, if even half the things people have suggested ITT are true, it's playing out like an unbelievable spy novel, and secondly, speaking personally, I want to see Trump and his buddies go to jail because I think they are disgusting human beings.

[Edited on February 1, 2018 at 8:53 PM. Reason : Arrows]

2/1/2018 8:52:44 PM

Quote :

"I'm just trying to illustrate that Trump is not the problem"

except for the fact that he is

2/1/2018 8:58:02 PM

^^
I hear you, and I'm happy as long as this focus on corruption doesn't end with Trump.

2/1/2018 9:01:28 PM

One of the ones that has been the most mind-boggling to me is FARA compliance. It's not the crux of the issue with Trump, but I just don't understand how it seemingly hasn't been enforced AT ALL for apparently decades? It's been on the books since WW2, I think it's a simple control on lobbyist to track who is working for foreign governments (politicians and voters should have access to this info).

Suddenly Mueller is using it to twist arms and we have this mad dash by the K street folks to back register for past lobbying (100s of people for probably $Millions in income). How the hell was this totally not enforced such that these people just felt they could totally ignore it? How many other lobbying rules are being flaunted like this? Again, we can't even seem to enforce the shitty laws we have on the books now. Crazy.

Edit:
Link:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mueller-effect-fara-filings-soar-shadow-manafort-flynn-probes-n838571


[Edited on February 1, 2018 at 9:35 PM. Reason : Link]

2/1/2018 9:30:40 PM

Limited resources and competing priorities. Our country went absolutely insane after the cave dwellers,in one year, killed 1/10th the number of people that die in car accidents every year.

I don't say that to deflate the fact that they attacked us or th he fact that it was horrible. But the focus immediately turned into using all available.means to prevent it from happening again.

It's like how cops in NYC aren't writing tickets for jaywalking.

Before that it was drugs. Before that, the Soviet Union.

[Edited on February 1, 2018 at 10:03 PM. Reason : a]

2/1/2018 10:01:47 PM

Quote :

"As opposed to non-meaningful collusion?"

Poor phrasing on my part. I doubt there will be evidence of extensive plotting between the Trump campaign and Russia, and the collusion portion will consist mostly of the Trump campaign receiving information and being passive (though willing) beneficiaries of others' actions. Page, Papadopoulos, etc. will turn out to be only cutouts. Yes, I am aware that receiving foreign contributions is illegal. And, yes, this is all very serious.

If anyone is guilty of (dictionary definition) collusion, it's probably Manafort.

Really, though...you read way too much into my flip phrasing.

2/2/2018 12:15:56 AM

If it can be proven that the meeting in June in Trump Tower was sold as a way for Russia to divulge secret info about Hillary to the Trump team, this is itself very serious violation. If Trump himself knew about the meeting, which seems increasingly likely, that's pretty much the worst case scenario for him.

How much worse can it get for a presidential candidate to meet with a top geopolitical adversary for the purpose of obtaining illegally obtained information from a the US Secretary of State or other top gov official??

We arrest people for terrorism when the FBI baits them into buying what they think are bomb parts, this is literally the equivalent of that, except it's not the FBI baiting the person, it's a foreign government.

2/2/2018 12:42:32 AM

If it can be proven...

I don't disagree with what you're saying about the seriousness of the situation, but I think it's more likely that Mueller can prove financial crimes and obstruction than he can prove what happened in that meeting. I'm also skeptical of the investigation's ability to prove anything about the relationship between Trump's campaign and the Russian government.

I hope I'm wrong.

2/2/2018 2:03:01 AM

Today is gonna be a shit show judging by twitter already..

2/2/2018 7:12:03 AM

I do admire the Trump clan for pinning their hopes on to a truthful, level-headed guy like Carter Page though.

2/2/2018 8:08:39 AM

that is the craziest part, since we know that Page was on the FBI radar since at least 2013

2/2/2018 8:15:46 AM

Pelosi Sends Letter to Speaker Ryan Calling for Removal of Chairman Nunes and End to House Republicans’ Partisan Charade
https://www.democraticleader.gov/newsroom/2118/

Quote :

"February 1, 2018 The Honorable Paul Ryan Speaker of the House H-232, United States Capitol Washington, D.C. 20515 The decision of Chairman Nunes and House Republicans to release a bogus memo has taken the GOP’s cover-up campaign to a new, completely unacceptable extreme. Both the DOJ and FBI oppose releasing the Nunes memo. As the Department of Justice warned, the public release of the memo would be an “unprecedented action” and “extraordinarily reckless.” The FBI also expressed that the agency has “grave concerns about material omissions of fact that fundamentally impact the memo’s accuracy.” It has now come to our attention that Congressman Nunes deliberately and materially altered the contents of the memo since it was voted on by the House Republicans. This action is not only dangerous, it is illegitimate, and violates House rules. From the start, Congressman Nunes has disgraced the House Intelligence Committee. Since pledging to recuse himself from the Trump-Russia investigation, Congressman Nunes has abused his position to launch a highly unethical and dangerous cover-up campaign for the White House. Congressman Nunes’ deliberately dishonest actions make him unfit to serve as Chairman, and he must be removed immediately from this position. House Republicans’ pattern of obstruction and cover-up to hide the truth about the Trump-Russia scandal represents a threat to our intelligence and our national security. The GOP has led a partisan effort to distort intelligence and discredit the U.S. law enforcement and intelligence communities. It is long overdue that you, as Speaker, put an end to this charade and hold Congressman Nunes and all Congressional Republicans accountable to the oath they have taken to support and defend the Constitution, and protect the American people. The integrity of the House is at stake. We look forward to your immediate action on this subject. sincerely, NANCY PELOSI Democratic Leader"

it's crazy how far Paul Ryan has fallen from a few years ago when he was supposed to be a numbers wonk, sensible republican who could be the new face of the party and president.

2/2/2018 8:50:25 AM

ruh roh

Rick Gates attorneys seek to withdraw from the case
http://www.cnn.com/2018/02/01/politics/rick-gates-attorneys-withdraw/index.html?sr=twCNN020118rick-gates-attorneys-withdraw0546PMStory

so rick gates is definitely cooperating now

2/2/2018 8:54:10 AM

Quote :

"If anyone is guilty of (dictionary definition) collusion, it's probably Manafort. Really, though...you read way too much into my flip phrasing."

My post wasn't meant to attack you. I wanted to just emphasize the fact that a lot of people are acting like if there's not enough proof to convict someone in court then this isn't a big deal. And it is.

As far as I'm concerned, attempting to kill the investigation and cover it up is enough for me to say he needs to be out of office, irrespective of what comes up in court via legal means.

2/2/2018 9:46:16 AM

I want to move to Wisconsin just to vote for Randy Bryce. It is probably the most annoying narrative in DC that Paul Ryan is a good hearted wonk. He’s as bad as anyone and maybe the most responsible for all of this. Trump is ignorant but Ryan is a sycophantic weak enabled.

[Edited on February 2, 2018 at 10:25 AM. Reason : X]

2/2/2018 10:24:26 AM

ryan has been a piece of shit for many years

2/2/2018 10:43:18 AM

lol
https://politics.theonion.com/fbi-warns-republican-memo-could-undermine-faith-in-mass-1822639681

2/2/2018 11:15:19 AM

lol I love the Onion

2/2/2018 11:22:34 AM

https://twitter.com/shimonpro/status/959464028711120897

Here we go!

2/2/2018 11:37:51 AM

don't forget to sign up to protest

2/2/2018 11:47:24 AM

memo approved for release

2/2/2018 12:12:08 PM

2/2/2018 12:20:21 PM

Lol it’s entirely about Carter Page.

And Murdoch’s WSJ literally debunked the last part of it this morning.

[Edited on February 2, 2018 at 12:22 PM. Reason : C]

2/2/2018 12:21:51 PM

This is it I think? Can't get the page to load.

http://docs.house.gov/meetings/IG/IG00/20180129/106822/HMTG-115-IG00-20180129-SD001.pdf

[Edited on February 2, 2018 at 12:23 PM. Reason : http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/documents/national/read-the-gop-memo/2746/]

2/2/2018 12:23:15 PM

Probably crashing due to heavy traffic.

This one is a transcript of the meeting on Monday.

https://www.scribd.com/document/370456823/HMTG-115-IG00-Transcript-20180129

[Edited on February 2, 2018 at 12:25 PM. Reason : a]

2/2/2018 12:23:41 PM

reminder that carter page was under surveillance from a fisa warrant since at least 2014

[Edited on February 2, 2018 at 12:28 PM. Reason : .]

2/2/2018 12:28:37 PM

The Hill has it embedded in their article:
http://thehill.com/homenews/news/372022-read-the-controversial-memo-just-released-by-republicans

It seems like just a summation of the same talking points the GOP has been repeating for a while now

-the dossier isn't legit, the DNC paid for it.
-ZOMG out-of-context text messages!!!!!
-the only new thing here is they are suggesting that the Page FISA warrant was totally reliant on the dossier

If you don't buy that last point then its a nothingburger

2/2/2018 12:36:56 PM

This is so pathetic. Expect a point-by-point commentary shortly from me on this (for what that's worth to anyone, lol).

[Edited on February 2, 2018 at 12:39 PM. Reason : a]

2/2/2018 12:37:18 PM

Actually I haven’t seen Trump/GOP admit that it was actually Papadopolus for the reason to start the CI investigation. Trump always blamed the Dossier.

2/2/2018 12:42:01 PM

What a dud.

2/2/2018 12:42:24 PM

So Schiff put out a response but unfortunately I’d bet my entire life that Trump denies declassifying that memo.

2/2/2018 12:51:41 PM

The overall theme is this:

FBI and DOJ were given approvals for FISA warrants on Page in 2016 and the memo is arguing the following:

1) The FBI/DOJ should have included information in their application that is potentially favorable to the target of the FISA application that is known by the government. In other words, if Page volunteered at the Red Cross for 1000 hours during 2016, they should have included that as something positive towards his character.

I have no clue if FISA warrants are supposed to include information like that. I'll have to look that up. I suspect not, quite honestly. That's like saying prosecutors are supposed to give you benefit of the doubt. They aren't. They're supposed to present evidence of your wrongdoing juxtaposed against evidence presented by you that exhonorates you.

So, starting off, it sounds like GOP trying to argue an opinion rather than facts.





2) The FBI/DOJ used a source that was paid for by the DNC and Hillary Clinton thus showing bias against Trump as well as monetary interests in producing only anti-trump information.

Nothing new here and of course completely full of shit. Steele did not receive money from the DNC and Clinton he received money from Fusion GPS and had no clue who he was working for. He was instructed to collect ANY information he could about Trump in Russia. Simple as that.

So, the second point is misleading horseshit.





3) The FBI/DOJ misled the FISA court with their applications for warrants and renewals based on the following:


a: They didn't tell the FISA courts that Steele was paid by the DNC and Hillary Clinton. That's probably because he wasn't.

b: The FBI/DOJ authorized payment for Steele to continue the work and did not disclose this in the FISA application. Not sure how that's relevant, all spies are paid. It's literally how the field works.

c: They used a source (Christopher Steele) that should have been cut off and regarded as untrustworthy. He should have been cut off and regarded as untrustworthy because:


i: The FBI/DOJ cited a Yahoo news article as part of their application justification, an article that supposedly exists because Steele had spoken with Yahoo himself. In other words, the information in the article came from Steele so the FBI citing it is really like citing Steele twice as opposed to two independent sources. Steele met with Yahoo at the direction of Fusion GPS according to court documents in England.

ii: Steele himself was suspended and terminated as an FBI source for unauthorized disclosure to the media of his relationship with the FBI in the 10/30/2016 Mother Jones article. This article was posted on 10/30/2016, 9 days after the 10/21/2016 FISA application so I'm not sure how that is supposed to work. The memo argues he should have been suspended and terminated as an FBI source back in September due to his meetings with Yahoo but the FBI didn't know about the Yahoo meetings because he concealed it from them.

So, Nunes is saying that the FBI applied for a warrant on 10/21/2016 using information from a Yahoo article that they knew was from Steele himself, even though they did not know Steele had met with Yahoo until 9 days after the warrant was applied for. Literally makes no sense.





4) Bias, bias, bias

The FISA application relied on Steele's past record of credible reporting but ignored and concealed his anti-Trump financial and ideological motivations. Andrew McCabe testified in December 2017 that no surveillance warrant would have been sought from the FISC without the Steele dossier information.

Furthermore, Papadopoulos' involvement triggered the opening of the FBI counterintelligence investigation in July 2016 by Peter Strzok. Strzok demonstrated a clear bias against Trump in favor of Clinton, whom Strzok also investigated. His texts allegedly reflect extensive discussions about the investigation, orchestrating leaks to the media and included a meeting with McCabe to discuss an "insurance" policy against Trump's election.





So, timeline:

July 2016: Papadopoulos information gets to FBI and Peter Strzok opens counterintelligence investigation.

September 2016: Steele meets with Yahoo and allegedly leaks information.

September 23, 2016: Yahoo publishes article.

October 21, 2016: FBI applies for FISA warrant, in part citing the Yahoo story as well as the Steele Dossier.

October 30, 2016: Mother Jones publishes article regarding Steele and the existence of a dossier.

Post-October 30, 2016: Some unknown date thereafter, the FBI terminates its relationship with Steele after finding out he leaked to Yahoo in September..

December 2017: McCabe testifies to committee that the FISA warrant would have been sought without the Steele Dossier.





There is absolutely NO mention of ANY of the other information that was used to apply for the warrant, particularly considering to dtownral's point, this shit goes back to like 2013.

The GOP is claiming you're supposed to include information flattering to the target of your application. I have no clue if this is true (codified in law) or not. Again, I suspect no because the basis on which an application is approved is how much evidence there is AGAINST the person and whether that meets some threshold. This would include past history.

Pursuant to that past history, there is absolutely no mention of Carter Page's history with the FBI counterintelligence division including his previous FISA warrants and activity with Moscow.

And to the final point which every one already knows, this is just a rehash of the "the dossier was paid for by Hillary Clinton" nonsense along with the "FBI is corrupt unless it's prosecuting Hillary Clinton during my election" nonsense.

[Edited on February 2, 2018 at 1:25 PM. Reason : wanted to make it easier to read]

2/2/2018 1:07:14 PM

Schiffs response is out too and it hits on a lot of your points.

Of course, without the FISA warrant and/or other underlying documents it’s all partisan guesswork

Also: https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/02/why-an-anti-clinton-book-from-breitbart-got-the-fbis-attention/?__twitter_impression=true

[Edited on February 2, 2018 at 1:22 PM. Reason : X]

2/2/2018 1:16:13 PM

The biggest question for me is why are house republicans burning this much credibility on the Page FISA warrant and not attacking more significant parts of the investigation? Who gives a damn about Carter Page, Trump has shown no hesitation in throwing other lackeys under the bus.

Someone very close to Trump, or Trump himself, got caught up in Page's monitoring saying something very damning, that's the best explanation I can figure.

2/2/2018 1:32:07 PM

Could be a strategy of death by a thousand cuts. They're taking advantage of opportunities whenever they can.

This is one such advantage - the public's general distrust with the FISA process as well as the text messages from Strzok.

Taking any chance to discredit Christopher Steele is big too considering right now, every one seems to think the investigation centers only on his set of memos.

Can say this much - if Mueller is able to find the 19% Rosneft stake in Page's accounts somewhere, it's game over.

I wonder if the FBI will declassify anything to counter this. These applications are like 100 pages deep on average. Even if the entire set of memos from Steele was used, that's like 33 pages lol.

[Edited on February 2, 2018 at 1:42 PM. Reason : i am incapable of spelling today]

2/2/2018 1:33:35 PM

Excellent work again by the Republicans. The actual memo, which I think we all knew would be nothing but a dud, served it's purpose before even being released. The contents of the memo are meaningless. The work was done by just creating doubt. The hype around it and guess work of what could be in it, already stuck in the heads of the Fox News crowd who won't even read the memo or understand it. Creates the headlines needed and move on. Once again the GOP is playing chess while Democrats are trying to pick a game to even play.

2/2/2018 1:42:17 PM

To be fair, they didn't have to release it to do that. Fox News just regurgitates whatever they say anyway. If anything, releasing it likely hurt them from the standpoint of independents.

The left and the right are already committed to their sides.

Annotated version is helpful.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/02/02/the-full-nunes-memo-annotated/?utm_term=.eff3f5d72f6e#annotations:13727494

[Edited on February 2, 2018 at 1:44 PM. Reason : a]

2/2/2018 1:43:17 PM

Quote :

"The FBI/DOJ used a source that was paid for by the DNC and Hillary Clinton thus showing bias against Trump as well as monetary interests in producing only anti-trump information. Nothing new here and of course completely full of shit. Steele did not receive money from the DNC and Clinton he received money from Fusion GPS and had no clue who he was working for. He was instructed to collect ANY information he could about Trump in Russia. Simple as that. So, the second point is misleading horseshit."

The DNC/Hillary Clinton part is irrelevant anyways. Steele was paid to create opposition research. That, in and of itself, is reason for it to be distrusted in the framework of a federal investigation.

So the question is did the FBI have any other evidence to warrant re-opening/extending the FISA warrant on Page? Still don't know, the memo answers nothing.

2/2/2018 2:02:06 PM