Like I'm really trying to understand the sequence of events in your head, you think the US caused the anti-Russian sentiment? You don't think the Euromadien protests show that the sentiment was there for a long time? Do you think the US government was really able to spur hundreds of thousands of people to suddenly hate Russia?
3/1/2022 7:59:51 PM
Also, you haven't answered my question, would you stop the military aid currently pouring into Ukraine?
3/1/2022 8:10:05 PM
3/1/2022 10:14:58 PM
3/1/2022 10:44:13 PM
^^For the very last time, the Euromaiden protests were about Yanukovych not pursing a relationship with the EU, not NATO. Further, saying something like "Well prior to 'the coup' only 28% wanted to join NATO" with the implication that the US was responsible for the increase without acknowledging that maybe, just maybe Russian actions/policies including the annexation of Crimea and funding of separatists helped just a bit is willfully ignorant. Further, how legitimate can that number even be with a corrupt government or a populace living in fear? Surely you don't think Kim down in DPRK has 100% approval rate?Also, you said you liked the DSA's statement saying that the US should stop military aid, so I'm going to assume that's your opinion. It's really not a complicated question.[Edited on March 1, 2022 at 10:54 PM. Reason : A]
3/1/2022 10:52:46 PM
Also, you can absolutely hate Russia but still not want to join NATO, see Finland as example.
3/1/2022 11:25:15 PM
3/2/2022 12:02:25 AM
3/2/2022 8:47:45 AM
Actually, just to follow up, daaave, do you consider the EU to be an expansionist offensive force that is a threat to Russia, ie the same way you view NATO?
3/2/2022 9:10:33 AM
Interesting: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340
3/2/2022 10:01:04 AM
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1499038375382298624
3/2/2022 10:50:48 AM
3/2/2022 11:36:13 AM
3/2/2022 12:27:53 PM
3/2/2022 12:47:43 PM
3/2/2022 12:53:31 PM
3/2/2022 12:58:44 PM
There was pressure on both sides.https://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/eu-ukraine-relations/eu-to-ukraine-reforms-necessary-for-trade-pact-320910.html
3/2/2022 1:11:24 PM
Actually, can you answer Grumpy's question. Is Putin's Russia evil? Do they have the best interest of their citizens and the citizens of Ukraine at heart?
3/2/2022 1:17:21 PM
I think I've been pretty clear that I don't like Russia either.
3/2/2022 1:23:34 PM
Not the question, you can not like someone but don't think they're evil. Is Putin's Russia evil? Is the US providing military supplies to Ukraine more or less evil that the invasion itself? Or the same scale?
3/2/2022 1:26:17 PM
Yes, Putin's government is also evil and ill-willed.
3/2/2022 1:36:27 PM
I think we can all agree that the situation is horrible, however, sending in weapons allows the Ukrainian people to defend themselves, does it not? If the US, or any other country, has the ability to send aid to prevent Russian invasion, your argument here is that they shouldn't? They should simply let Russia invade and claim the territory to minimize loss of life and be 'more stable'? Sending in weapons doesn't fix the root issue, but is allows them to fight for their right of self-determination. It allows them to destroy the morale of the invading army, to discourage them to fight, to make them think twice about doing this again. The argument that they should simply capitulate to a foreign power, which you admit is evil, is simply stunning.
3/2/2022 1:52:22 PM
The solution is and was diplomacy.[Edited on March 2, 2022 at 1:57 PM. Reason : v sounds good. nice talking with you.]
3/2/2022 1:54:04 PM
And there it is, the single most ignorant statement in this thread. They're being invaded. Civilian targets are being hit. Convoys of armor that are miles long are rolling down the highways towards their major cities. Yes, diplomacy would be great, but the Ukrainians need to be in a position to engage in those discussions and that means continuing to fight.[Edited on March 2, 2022 at 2:23 PM. Reason : a]
3/2/2022 1:56:37 PM
So who has everyone been getting their news from? Any good people to follow on twitter? https://twitter.com/terrelljstarr comes recommended from Malcolm Nance (https://twitter.com/MalcolmNance)[Edited on March 2, 2022 at 3:24 PM. Reason : a]
3/2/2022 3:24:32 PM
Tbh, cable news (excluding Fox obv) is probably a lot better for actual news/updates than Twitter or social media given all the fake stuff/propaganda that people are inadvertently sharing.
3/2/2022 3:48:41 PM
@KofmanMichael@wc_quinn@wellersteinThey aren't news sources per se, but they're a Russian studies expert and foreign policy historian who have done a pretty good job filtering out the noise and providing good analysis of the facts available. Wellerstein is good for the nuclear angle.
3/2/2022 4:11:32 PM
these news outlets really need to start putting the "real" people of Ukraine in interviews. the ones that are like "f**k Russia! those b**ches are f**kin p***ies!". everyone they talk to seems unnaturally calm and articulate.
3/2/2022 4:31:34 PM
^^^ For sure on BBC, Reuters, etc being more accurate, but it is interesting seeing policy folks weighing in or what propaganda is being shared (like that photoshopped sign)
3/2/2022 6:06:46 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1499164245250002944An interesting thread
3/2/2022 8:31:35 PM
^that was a good read.
3/2/2022 10:05:58 PM
Good read, and it brought up something that's been on my mind a lot with this ridiculously long convoy. One of my niche areas of interest is the Soviet-Finland "Winter War" over 1939-1940, which obviously seems to have a lot of parallels to the current conflict. But during the early days, when the Finns had a shocking series of successes, one of the main tactics was the "motti tactic." Due to Finland's topography, with lots of lakes and dense forests, Soviet forces were road-bound -- much as they appear to be in Ukraine, per that thread. The Finns performed small assaults at various points along these columns, which both halted their progress and broke them into more manageable segments that could then be destroyed piecemeal. I haven't heard about similar tactics being used in Ukraine, and even that thread seems to suggest "blow up the vehicles in front and then they're stuck," which is a good delaying tactic but doesn't actually inflict much damage. There's no doubt in my mind that Ukrainian military leaders are familiar with the Winter War because of those obvious similarities, so I keep hoping that we'll see some of those successful tactics employed. But maybe there's some other obstacle at play I'm not aware of.One thing that is clear is that Ukraine doesn't feel confident deploying its air forces to attack that 40-mile-long sitting duck. What's less clear is why they've used their drones so sparingly. We know they have them.
3/3/2022 9:54:38 AM
Take 'em out!
3/3/2022 9:57:23 AM
^^ I've seen reports that they're increasing drone strikes on the convo since Turkey provided them more TB-2. I can't blame Ukraine from not wanting to attack a convo though, Russian anti-air assets are no joke, and there isn't any reason to think the launcher part of their mobile platforms aren't working just because the mobile part isn't.
3/3/2022 10:37:27 AM
https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2022/03/02/ukraine-jets-hit-russian-column-russia-has-used-thermobarics-ukraine-military-says/They started hitting the columns
3/3/2022 10:47:05 AM
3/3/2022 11:07:38 AM
3/3/2022 11:26:54 AM
I'm sort of surprised (but not really) they haven't deployed a single one of their SU-57s just for training purposes. I know they only have a dozen or so, but still
3/3/2022 11:30:52 AM
^^^ i vaguely recall the US deploying fuel-air bombs which sound just like the vacuum bombs, to clear out caves in afghanistan/iraq??
3/3/2022 11:38:04 AM
We did
3/3/2022 11:45:27 AM
Yes, all those innocent civilians living in remote caves. Not like we dropped MOAB on Kabul or Kandahar neighborhoods.]
3/3/2022 12:02:20 PM
We also used them in Fallujah, as well as Libya, and our allies (including the UK) have used them in Yemen and Syria.We also regularly use cluster munitions, and Ukraine itself used them in 2014, in Donetsk.https://www.hrw.org/news/2014/10/20/ukraine-widespread-use-cluster-munitions[Edited on March 3, 2022 at 12:07 PM. Reason : .]
3/3/2022 12:03:44 PM
We haven't used cluster munitions in years. Regular use stopped in 2003ish.
3/3/2022 12:11:50 PM
Also, it should be noted that the ones we did drop were fitted with WCMD tailkits that turn cluster bombs into precision guided munitions.Oh, and obviously, not all cluster munitions are inherently 'bad' as far as munitions go. [Edited on March 3, 2022 at 12:19 PM. Reason : a]
3/3/2022 12:14:19 PM
HRW disagrees.https://www.hrw.org/legacy/backgrounder/arms/clustermunitions/5.htm
3/3/2022 12:29:57 PM
Your statement was we regularly use them. It's incorrect. You argue in gross generalizations to make your point and leave out tons of info. Yes, cluster bombs have significant issues and most shouldn't be used around civilian targets. There are notable examples, for example the CBU-107 which saw use in Iraq and also used in Syria among other places. Rather than using bomblets, it's filled with tungsten rods, the use of it is to knock out chemical facilities/radar dishes/fuel depots/etc with no significant explosives. Yes, we have used thermobaric weapons during OIF/OEF. They were typically one off and used to hit caves/heavily fortified areas. There are also smaller munitions (hellfire missiles and smaller) that were used with the same selection criteria. Russia has also used thermobaric weapons before and cluster bombs. They appear to be attacking civilian areas with them. As you note in the Times article, Petraeus went "hey this is fucking bad, we need to switch tactics", is there any evidence the Russians are doing the same?
3/3/2022 12:40:42 PM
I gave you an instance in 2009 where we used bomblets in a civilian area, resulting in civilian deaths. You can't ignore the facts. It's great that Petraeus walked back their use, but it doesn't mean all that much when the next administration reverses policy.https://www.newsweek.com/why-has-mattis-made-it-easier-drop-cluster-bombs-743945Biden should reverse Trump's policy, and also join most of the rest of the world in signing the Convention on Cluster Munitions.[Edited on March 3, 2022 at 12:55 PM. Reason : .]
3/3/2022 12:53:43 PM
3/3/2022 12:56:35 PM
3/3/2022 1:00:46 PM
I guess my definition of "regular" is a little different! As far as I can tell we used them in every major conflict until 2009, not very long ago, and then very specifically left the door open to their production and use in the years after. You do a really great job of picking one thing you disagree with and then ignoring the entire rest of the argument.Very simple ask of the Biden admin: reverse Trump's policy and join the treaty on cluster munitions.
3/3/2022 1:09:26 PM