it might could happen if the Iranian ambassador jumps on the table an pinches a loaf. if he actually picks up the poo and slings it at our emissaries, we could see oil at 175...

otherwise i think we're headed to the 120s or lower.

7/18/2008 2:14:35 PM

Ya know what else would be really great, if the gas prices changed as quickly when oil dropped as they fucking do when it starts going up.

7/18/2008 3:09:49 PM

MSFT is looking rather tasty.

7/18/2008 3:52:24 PM

-4.07% today I think I have a chance of winning the game today!

7/18/2008 5:21:52 PM

hold on lemme check..

[Edited on July 18, 2008 at 5:35 PM. Reason : -5.18% overall.. but only about 1% today.. you win, haha]

7/18/2008 5:34:38 PM

I'm all about value...I have been eying WFC and BDK for several weeks and they both rallied huge this week. Would've bought both if my money wasn't stuck in V. Well I finally unloaded my V and can buy some REAL value now (Visa is not a value at this point).

Still great entry points on WFC (Buffet was buying more between $26 and $28 earlier this year) and BDK...although they might pull back a bit after that rally. I will absolutely be buying some UNH this week, and might add to my position in SNY.

Watching but still a bit too expensive: COH, GD

7/19/2008 12:54:52 PM

I have a few stocks I have been holding for between a month or two. Debating just taking a loss on these to get some liquid assets so I stop missing the chance to make profits on others. They were probably bad buys at the time and I was just getting into the market. Im starting to doubt their long term outlook as far as getting back to even anytime soon and although some of them are fairly decent loses at this point do you think its in my best interest to just eat them as "learned experience" and try to make some better choices and recoup my losses through other buys hopefully. Or should I just suck it up and sit on them in hopes that in a few months maybe they get back to even.

7/21/2008 8:56:48 AM

If you know that you can make money somewhere else, then why not just take those losses? I would just cut your losses and move on. I've been there, it's not easy sometimes, but if you're confident in your abilities to get that money back with another opportunity, then go for it.

7/21/2008 10:14:59 AM

Yeah I have already dumped one this morning, got others on the sell block if they can just move a bit higher today.

7/21/2008 11:10:13 AM

TD Ameritrade takes about 3 days to give me my funds after trading.

Is anyone faster? I have missed out on so many good day trades because of this

7/21/2008 1:00:48 PM

I think it's 3 days for Scottrade too.

7/21/2008 1:05:03 PM

Yeah it takes a couple days to settle the trade I think 3 days is pretty standard. I can actually buy a stock with the funds of a sale with scottrade, I just cant sell that purchase until the funds from the sale have actually cleared though.

7/21/2008 1:07:51 PM

I setup margin to avoid having to deal with wait times.

7/21/2008 2:38:58 PM

Another "oops" for a tech stock, this time its Apple's turn. Another one of those beat our numbers but we arent gonna blow up next quarter like everyone always thinks we are going to so down goes our price.

7/21/2008 4:55:39 PM

Quote :

"AAPL After Hours: 149.08 -17.21 (-10.35%)"

Damn, no kidding

7/21/2008 5:55:22 PM

Quote :

"do you think its in my best interest to just eat them as "learned experience" and try to make some better choices and recoup my losses through other buys hopefully. Or should I just suck it up and sit on them in hopes that in a few months maybe they get back to even"

absolutely sell it if the P/E is still pretty high, meaning it still has plenty of room to fall. if you still think it's a good long term hold, it will make that decision harder. I was in that boat with V...I think it's going to be a great growth stock in the next 5-10 years, but I got caught up in the hype, bought in too high and i definitely think it'll go down further before it goes up...probably closer to the IPO price. I did make money on the IPO however so I broke about even after trying to short it. but i just had to chalk it up as a learned experience as well and don't plan on buying overpriced stocks again...if a stock is no good, get out and find some real value.

7/21/2008 6:32:50 PM

Quote :

"Im starting to doubt their long term outlook as far as getting back to even anytime soon and although some of them are fairly decent loses at this point do you think its in my best interest to just eat them as "learned experience" and try to make some better choices and recoup my losses through other buys hopefully. Or should I just suck it up and sit on them in hopes that in a few months maybe they get back to even."

You always want your money to be where it has the best risk vs. reward tradeoff regardless of what you bought and when. When an asset loses value that money is gone. Its best to write it off immediately.

You continue to hold the stock only if you think that at this new lower value its a better buy than it was at the higher value. If a stock losses value and because of evolving news looks like an even worse buy, sell it.

The only time you should differ from the general strategy of looking at current assets as "would I purchase today" is if you become too emotional and start buying or selling out of fear.

7/22/2008 11:41:26 AM

Looks like everyones darling from last summer (or, whenever it was last year) is getting battered down some more.

http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ig&q=VMW

Hope you got out.

7/23/2008 10:44:28 AM

Ouch, I never got in, luckily. Hope V doesn't end up like that.

7/23/2008 10:49:56 AM

anyone have thoughts on EMC?

7/23/2008 11:14:41 AM

first hurricane of the season - is a category 2 and in the Gulf of Mexico - and still crude is in the 120s

an intersting tell.

i guess when the Bush-Ahmedinejad-Israel hate triangle keeps its collective mout shut, oil prices stay low

7/23/2008 3:06:51 PM

Probably because most of the oil facilities are not located that far south in the gulf, once the threat was over and they knew it wasnt turning north thats when gas settled again. Now if only DCR was still a viable stock we might have been able to get out even .

7/23/2008 3:12:12 PM

no shit. oil stayed high until the market completely liquidated the DCR bet.

7/23/2008 3:44:51 PM

who's got fre/fnm? prbly selling 20-25% fnm at market open, depends on PM trading.
happy to finally be back in black, gah.

7/24/2008 1:03:05 AM

the relationship i have with BIDU would make most girls jealous

7/24/2008 10:30:49 AM

Quote :

"who's got fre/fnm?"

sold it all yesterday or the day before at 11 something, bought around 8 i think ... also bought at 4.50 and sold at 7 that same day lol.

i'm gonna re-buy some fre.

7/24/2008 1:28:29 PM

Everytime I feel like I have got something going and things are looking up, a day like today comes along to wipe out a weeks worth of good feelings down about 3% on the day.

7/24/2008 3:09:37 PM

-1.3% today

7/24/2008 3:21:01 PM

ended up selling over 90% fnm at open. why i didn't sell all of it, don't ask >,< not too worried about it, though.

picked up some pot under 190. let's see if i like this any better than ipi. what a rough ride that was. solid boner for a week followed by two weeks of ass pounding. painful.

7/24/2008 3:34:33 PM

that financials "rebound" was so fake. they're still all in the shitter.

7/24/2008 8:15:11 PM

^ but you're going to buy back in fre?

after a week of insane rallies, the sell-off today was expected. i should have sold it all, but i'm an idiut. i actually kept a little bit in the off-chance that the stock would run up at the bell, but that obv wasn't going to happen after watching the opening minute. i have a bad habit of taking small losses in fear of leaving a lot of money on the table. i'll learn eventually. but i was lucky enough to have the price jump up $1 at the end of pm trading. sitting on the sidelines with what i have left. should be a very interesting day tomorrow, probably another down day. of course, i'm still a young grasshopper in this game, so my foresight isn't as sharp as some of you ballers.

buying more pot if it sinks again with commodities. been waiting to get back in the ag sector for the long term. looking at re-entry in V if it hits 60s. seems like everyone wants to sell on earnings. gotta try and stay one step ahead... gonna be interesting.

7/25/2008 1:06:51 AM

yeah it seems like there are way more bad earnings than good earnings right now, so most people not in things long term odds are in your favor to sell a bit before earnings, wait for them, and if they are bad then think about rebuying on the panic selloff that always follows. Of course when one of em finally turns in good numbers and it jumps then you are left kicking yourself lol.

7/25/2008 8:24:21 AM

Market definitely took a massive dump and I missed selling a lot of stocks for higher gain (haven't sold any for negative gain obviously) but its a great time to buy

7/25/2008 8:55:56 AM

oh great, apocalypse started posting in this thread.

7/25/2008 9:00:19 AM

no idea who you are. one of the other apocalypses must have offended you in the past, heh. sorry.

i can stop posting here, if that's what anyone wishes. doesn't matter to me. but i'm a nice guy, i assure you. i'm sure i can be an asset in the future, and i'd like to contribute what i know.

anyway

7/25/2008 9:53:08 AM

holy crap HK is at $32.44

7/25/2008 10:48:40 AM

Yeah energy has been taking big hits lately, Im assuming due to oil prices falling along with other factors

7/25/2008 11:02:41 AM

just bought some CSCO and YHOO

thinking about picking up F since it's so low right now - hard decision though

7/25/2008 11:05:22 AM

My recent pickups have been CLWR and AUY, playing the charts a bit looking to make a decent trade if they can get a good bounce.

7/25/2008 11:08:21 AM

picked up some auy yesterday as well. Hope were right

7/25/2008 11:12:48 AM

any reasons you bought Clearwire?

7/25/2008 11:34:58 AM

52 wk low, has been having nice bounces off support levels, analyst target of $17, got in at $9.44 looking to get out around 12 probably.

AUY has been bouncing off 14 for a while now, once it went through that barrier the next support level appeared to be in the 12.70-12.50 area so I got in at 12.70 yesterday. Looking to get out around 15.50 or so.

7/25/2008 12:20:48 PM

when, if ever, will the capital markets become naturally un-pegged to the price of crude?

seeing as how securities markets are often leading indicators of the broader economy, we need to be concerned about this in light of the long term up trend of the price of crude.

if we expand drilling now, the free market has less of an incentive to develop new energy technologies. and when the new wells top out we'll be in the same shitty situation. in the meantime, are we ready to deal with the consequences of pumping carbon into the atmosphere?

i am actually less concerned with latter consequences, because i think we'll run out faster than we can impact the climates. if we are now clutching at the straw that there's some shit left in the arctic regions and that we need it to keep the supply steady, we're in trouble.

7/28/2008 10:43:01 AM

fyi

http://tinyurl.com/59dghe

7/28/2008 11:18:55 AM

horray for all in the red!

7/28/2008 1:01:13 PM

I am not totally in the red, but the ones in the red are very much more in the red than those in the green. Another one of those days

7/28/2008 4:01:43 PM

i day traded FNM and made about 13% so that brought all my reds to even

7/28/2008 4:35:02 PM

Quote :

"that financials "rebound" was so fake. they're still all in the shitter."

My concern about financials is the trader talk. The talk last week was that we were perhaps "through the worst" and coming out of the otherside. There seem to be a sense that the bleeding had stopped, so now was time to get in.

The thing is that is no where close to being true. The big shoes are still left to fall. We have commercial real estate, consumer credit and corporate bonds with significant room to detoriate.

Now my personal opinion is that the prices are getting low to the point were one could argue that this was priced in -- that's why the trader talk is so important. It doesn't seem that the traders are pricing that in. Which means that despite the fact that we are closing in on what looks like fair valuation to me there is significant short term risk to the downside when more bad news starts to flood in.

Specifically, I would look for in the range of a dozen or more midsized bank failures over the next 6 - 9 months. My guess is that each one of them will spook Wall Street.

[Edited on July 28, 2008 at 5:58 PM. Reason : .]

7/28/2008 5:58:11 PM

GTE is below $5 now, good buy?

7/29/2008 10:14:03 AM

Eh, too much insider selling for my blood

7/29/2008 10:46:22 AM