Quote :

"Link to Allan Hoffman's map: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/432929021999845376/photo/1"

might as well throw these up, too









[Edited on February 10, 2014 at 1:09 PM. Reason : oh, hey, a new page...added radar images]

2/10/2014 1:08:04 PM

RIP Atlanta 2.0

2/10/2014 1:10:59 PM

Too far north.

Tomorrow is projected too far south. Weds will be west.

Way it goes..

2/10/2014 1:12:43 PM

Atlanta Icepocalypse 2.0

2/10/2014 1:16:10 PM

.75" of freezing rain seems like it would be really bad

2/10/2014 1:17:33 PM

Quote :

".75" of freezing rain seems like it would be really bad"

a lot of old ragged ass trees around here waiting to fall and fuck some shit up or knock the power out

we have not had an ice storm or hurricane in over a decade

2/10/2014 1:19:35 PM

wasn't allan way off last time?

2/10/2014 1:24:12 PM

Not way off just had a little more snow further west but it ended up going mostly east of us. He is usually pretty good about systems around here at least comparatively. No one ever really nails them.

2/10/2014 1:26:57 PM

i think the temp has dropped like 10 degrees since i went to brueggers this morning.

2/10/2014 1:29:58 PM

Haven't followed this too closely. Are we looking at this starting tomorrow afternoon, tomorrow evening, or mostly on wednesday? I think most of the winter weather advisories are starting aroun noon tomorrow.

[Edited on February 10, 2014 at 1:31 PM. Reason : N]

2/10/2014 1:31:31 PM

7pm Tuesday-noon Thursday

2/10/2014 1:33:49 PM

We may see some more flurries between now and then, but the bulk of it is gonna develop Wednesday afternoon and persist into late Thursday morning.

Latest Euro run shows 12" for the Triad....yikes!

2/10/2014 1:38:43 PM

call me when the triangle is getting 8+, anything else is useless.

[Edited on February 10, 2014 at 1:42 PM. Reason : .]

2/10/2014 1:42:28 PM

I don't think I was quite old enough to really pay attention during the last major ice storm. How much freezing rain/ice does it take to really make an impact on power lines, trees, etc? Im seeing numbers from .25"-.75." after an inch or two of snow. That seems like an absurd amount.

[Edited on February 10, 2014 at 1:43 PM. Reason : .]

2/10/2014 1:43:14 PM

I will take 8" of snow over 3-5" + .5"+ of ice any day. Ice is what fucks shit up.

Disruptive Ice Storm
- A disruptive ice storm is typically one of 1/4" to 1/2" of ice accumulation.

- This amount of ice starts to damage trees and power lines.



Crippling Ice Storm
- Widespread accumulations of over 1/2".

- With this much ice there is severe tree damage and power outages may last for days.

- The most devastating storms contain ice accumulations of an inch or more.



[Edited on February 10, 2014 at 1:45 PM. Reason : .]

2/10/2014 1:43:32 PM

I don't think the last ice storm had .75" and you could look out the window in Durham and see transformers exploding during that one

2/10/2014 1:50:41 PM

IIRC the last nasty ice storm Raleigh had was back in winter 2002-2003. Was my senior year at NCSU and the fraternity house didn't have power for 3-5 days. I remember sitting outside in the front of the house and listening to electrical transformers exploding all over the place.

2/10/2014 1:54:18 PM

Yep I lived in Avent Ferry and spent the day watching people trying to make it up and down that hill right there, mostly unsuccessfully. Lots of wrecks.

2/10/2014 1:55:18 PM

So should i go into work tommorrow or no?

2/10/2014 2:08:37 PM

Yeah, nothing's really supposed to happen tomorrow

2/10/2014 2:10:06 PM

yeah you'll be fine

2/10/2014 2:10:07 PM

And the Yankees complaining about the South has already started on my Facebook feed, and there's not even snow on the ground yet.

2/10/2014 2:10:42 PM

just remind them how terrified they are of hurricanes.

2/10/2014 2:18:59 PM

^if you live in NYC where you're surrounded by water and less than 10 feet above sea level explain to me why they shouldn't be concerned about hurricanes, especially given the geography around NYC Nobody inland gives a shit.

2/10/2014 2:28:00 PM

listen, don't you yankees get mad at us that you built your shit heap town on sunken boats and landfill and then decided to put generators and telecom equipment in basements

2/10/2014 2:30:11 PM

The problem is they tend to forget they live in the Triangle, where most residents aren't from the South, but from up North.

They also think that a snowy road in New York is the same as a snowy road in the South.

2/10/2014 2:33:53 PM

^&^^ both valid points.

Also unless you live in far western NC it's just silly to own snow tires for your vehicle. Just not cost effective to maintain something like that unless you have a job that you need to show up for no matter what.

2/10/2014 2:48:29 PM

The little amount of snow that NC gets, the residents are not prepared for such events.

Whereas up north, they are given they get it all the time.


But yes, they should have built the city in a better area...and they arent prepared when Hurricanes do come through, not just NYC.

its all about the $$ and preparedness

2/10/2014 3:06:01 PM

Allan's explanation of his forecast map.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/testgraphics/discussion.htm

Quote :

"Well this is as difficult a map as I have ever had to make due to the many zones of p-type issues and also the model uncertainty, but this is my best guess. Synopsis A complicated setup as we see several s/w in the southern branch of the jet stream interact with each other while the northern branch of the jet stream delivers a fresh supply of cold polar/arctic air into the Great Lakes and Northeast. The high pressure is not too strong, around 1032-1035mb, but it is in a classical CAD position as the storm begins and transitions to a hybrid setup as the storm wears on. Diabatic processes will help intensify the damming and drive it well into South Carolina and Georgia. Right now, I feel like low pressure along the Gulf Coast will consolidate into a stronger area of low pressure east of Savannah/Charleston by Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon a trough will capture this storm and begin to strengthen it rapidly while turning it north east of Hatteras. I do not expect the low pressure center to track up the coastal plain but to stay off shore. This fits historical events, climo, takes into account model biases, and the current synoptic pattern with the wedge locked in east of the mountains. Best Chance for Heavy Snow I see the area from NE Georgia into upstate South Carolina, western NC, and central Va as standing the best chance to receive very heavy snow. I have 8-12 inches there right now, but if the storm does indeed bomb and hug the coast amounts in excess of a foot are possible. This includes Greenville, SC, Asheville, Hickory, Greensboro into Roanoke. Best Chance for Severe Ice This zone is hard to pinpoint as we have an unusually wide transition zone with this Miller A type storm. Right now from central Georgia into central SC and into east-central NC stand the best chance of seeing 0.5 to 0.75 inches of freezing rain accrual. It is possible some areas could see up to 1 inch of ice accrual, but this would be an unusually severe case. This includes areas like Athens, Columbia, Fayetteville, and Raleigh. It is possible there could be a changeover to rain Wednesday night along the I-95 corridor and east in NC, but it could be brief or hold east of I-95. As of now, I do not think Raleigh-Durham changes to plain rain. There are many transition zones and mixed precipitation areas, so look at the map and that will tell you what I think for your area. I will update this as data changes. Confidence is still somewhat low but increasing some."

2/10/2014 3:11:34 PM

2/10/2014 3:19:59 PM

Quote :

"But yes, they should have built the city in a better area...and they arent prepared when Hurricanes do come through, not just NYC."

Anecdotal, but nobody blinked an eye for the several Cat 1&2s I lived through up in the NE. Hell my family didn't even evacuate the beach town when a hurricane more or less hit us headon at Cape Cod in '92.

sorry, no further thread derailment from me.

I WANTS SNOWZ

2/10/2014 3:28:27 PM

Its gonna be one of those we wont know what its gonna do till its done storms so hold onto your butts!

2/10/2014 3:33:38 PM

[Edited on February 10, 2014 at 3:39 PM. Reason : .]

2/10/2014 3:38:10 PM

^ wtf was that

2/10/2014 3:38:51 PM

^I failed

2/10/2014 3:40:05 PM

NWS Raleigh office is still basically saying this storm ain't gonna do shit other than be a messy mix in the Triangle. They don't even have a warning issued for Wake Co. Meanwhile they're calling for possibly 8 inches in Charlotte.

2/10/2014 4:21:51 PM

You all should check out Wxrisk.com on facebook. He is the Perez Hilton of weather.

2/10/2014 4:22:39 PM

NWS Raleigh is one of the best around. Rarely wrong. Their disco says we will get hit good but it's still 36-48 hrs out.

2/10/2014 4:24:16 PM

where are you seeing that the NWS isn't predicting anything

2/10/2014 4:35:01 PM

It would be my luck to have meetings scheduled in NOVA and Lynchburg VA on Wednesday.

2/10/2014 4:37:41 PM

^^When you read their little forecast for Raleigh.

[Edited on February 10, 2014 at 4:40 PM. Reason : ']

2/10/2014 4:39:29 PM

When do they set us up the Raleigh Weather Dome? Standing by for activation....

2/10/2014 4:54:01 PM

Just wait until you feel the souls of millions of snowflakes scream out in terror then suddenly be silenced.

At that point you'll know we have a fully armed and operational Raleigh Shield.

2/10/2014 4:57:08 PM

Wow the 18z GFS jackpots Greensboro. And destroys RDU with an ice storm too bad to believe.

Anyway, I'll check again at the 0z before bed.

2/10/2014 5:48:53 PM

Quote :

"^^When you read their little forecast for Raleigh."

i saw them say that we wouldn't get anything on Tuesday, which is what everyone else says, but the last I saw they were predicting snow and ice for us on Wednesday. Where are you seeing otherwise?

2/10/2014 6:49:18 PM

http://youtu.be/aj8fY98JPRw
not nothing

2/10/2014 8:43:11 PM

local guy up here says it could be the biggest winter storm DC's seen in 4 yrs

2/10/2014 9:38:22 PM

that storm turned NOVA into an outright clusterfuck for a couple of weeks. The snow around Springfield was piled up 8' tall on the sidewalks, so the hobos just staggered around in the streets at night.

2/10/2014 9:48:06 PM

For those of us in the desert of Raleigh how much would that be.

Because the biggest storm in four hears here would be 1.75" at RDU.

2/10/2014 9:52:21 PM

2/10/2014 9:55:01 PM