^ Noice

7/15/2009 6:15:28 PM

sold some SSO for about a $400 profit today. I bought it about a week or so ago.




[Edited on July 15, 2009 at 6:20 PM. Reason : ]

7/15/2009 6:17:27 PM

Big runup here in the last 2 hours of trading, nearing the near term peak if we see a breakout and earnings keep looking good we could see a good chance for some more profit making.

7/16/2009 3:51:27 PM

I'd be happy with a good dip next week. As is I'm looking to have about 20% of my short portfolio called away tomorrow.

7/16/2009 4:04:09 PM

http://www.youtube.com/user/SnP500Trader

7/19/2009 10:32:54 PM

I closed some Aug puts I sold in VLO and BA at 75% and 45% profit. Just wish those positions were bigger.

7/20/2009 9:45:34 AM

glad i still have some EDC sitting around that i bought under 80

due to heavy work and life events i have been out of the markets' loop lately

7/20/2009 5:17:57 PM

picked up some CIT near the close, hoping it pays off tomorrow

7/20/2009 5:53:33 PM

Why not just go to Vegas?

7/20/2009 6:20:30 PM

cheaper to just trade than spend the airfair, take time off work, ect.
i just don't get free drinks

7/20/2009 8:01:10 PM

What was your thesis for the trade? It was down 75% on word that it wasn't getting a bailout. It went back to more or less where it was on word that the bondholders were going to kick in more money.

If that falls through, your downside is nasty. If it passes your upside is already capped by all the speculators like you that think it will take off. You'd be better off buying October S&P puts than to gamble with a wounded animal like CIT.

7/20/2009 9:34:53 PM

They paid 10.5% interest for the $3 billion and PIMCO & others collateralized the loan with $10 billion in unspoken for assets.

The company is on life support this just gives the bondholders a chance to unwind a little slower, without a government gift loan they are still going to zero.

7/21/2009 6:40:06 AM

That CIT you got is paying off...for whoever shorted you the shares.

7/21/2009 10:14:17 AM

Just to clarify that's not to say you can't make some money trading the stock. There's always some idiot out there who doesn't understand that a stock is supposed to trade based on equit and cazy things like retained and future earnings. Debt based models don't work right now particularly when your short term financing is a whopping ten.five percent. They can't earn their way out of this

7/21/2009 10:16:30 AM

It's kinda nice to turn a 10% loser because of overnight gaps into a 5% winner by doubling down and closing out shares at the right times.

7/21/2009 10:53:12 AM

Any news on the a123 ipo?

7/21/2009 12:38:54 PM

what the hell? 12 out of my 20 holdings are down today (with my portfolio down for the day) on a day with all 3 indices up.

7/21/2009 6:19:31 PM

You can't always look at the indices, especially the DOW where a big player with a high price moves 8% in a day.

If you want a better market gauge, use the Russell 2000, which was down about .4%.

7/21/2009 7:59:50 PM

just signed up for free stock picks at http://www.zantrio.com
very nice

they pick stocks that explode that day, unfortunately most have moved in premarket, so by the time you get the info you may 2-5% of the move, but its still good


anyone have any other free or pay services you use?

7/23/2009 10:43:26 AM

I've been pushing philstockworld for a few pages (because I get a discount for referrals).

He offers a 90 day free trial of his reports service and you don't need a credit card to get this. Let me know if you'd like me to refer you. He usually gives a report in the morning and some intraday updates about the levels he sees in the market and occasionally gives trade ideas. I made a little bit of profit on some of these intraday reports and went full premium ($200 per month). I'm up about 6% in a month in my IRA with conservative dividend plays and only about half of my account allocated. I'm up about 8% over the same time period in my personal account making just a few trades a week.

7/23/2009 10:58:21 AM

Bring on the ridicule, but I'm going to go ahead and call today's (or more likely tomorrow's) highs as the near-term peak in the S&P.

....near-term is not the right wording - I'm thinking in the terms of 2 years or so.

[Edited on July 23, 2009 at 11:49 AM. Reason : .]

7/23/2009 11:47:57 AM

wait what?

7/23/2009 12:03:30 PM

I opened a scottrade account a few months ago (good time I guess), and I'm looking to invest longer term (> 1 year, at least).

So far I've bought in to MSFT, IRBT, INTC, ARMH, and HON. They're at 4.49%, -14.06%, 12.65%, 19.61%, and 6.82% respectively. So Intel, and especially ARM, have been pretty awesome. IRobot has been sucking it up a little bit, but that's a very long term investment for me and I don't have very much in it anyway. I have by far the most invested in Honeywell, which I'm thinking will be a pretty long term ride.

I'll only be able to invest every couple of months I think, with the goal of going in $2k at a time (I didn't do that at first). Whether I buy more of what I have next time will really depend on the prices whenever I get my cash together, but I'd like more IRobot and more ARM or Intel. Before I diversify too much I'd like to shore up long term positions in consumer/defense robotics and in sensor manufacturing (what got me interested in Honeywell). Any recommendations of companies to put on my watch list in those areas?

[Edited on July 23, 2009 at 12:07 PM. Reason : redundant redundancy is redundant.]

7/23/2009 12:06:00 PM

so i just checked on my 401k for the first time in several months, and assumed that i had everything in money market.

Apparently, I bought several hundred shares each of MVL @ ~$27 and MSFT @ ~$16 back in march.

yay.

but then i look at how badly i got burned on some other investments, and it's more like

meh.

7/23/2009 12:38:04 PM

Quote :

"Bring on the ridicule, but I'm going to go ahead and call today's (or more likely tomorrow's) highs as the near-term peak in the S&P. ....near-term is not the right wording - I'm thinking in the terms of 2 years or so."

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. It's just as likely that with all these earnings "beats" money will pile in off the sidelines and drive us even higher over the next quarter. If you add in a lot of other market effects (low volume, etc) and you can see it's been fairly easy for GS to game it up. And they probably think they can push it higher...to, umm, 1060...and they'll be selling into it the entire way.

Everyone that looks at things on a fundamental basis (as I am sure you are) is wtf'ing this market, but with such low volume and with such manipulation by the big traders along with the complacency of the media, it's exceedingly easy to make things appear golden.

7/23/2009 12:49:43 PM

FASB to not only re-instate mark to market, but make it more stringent!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a5BsXz90CMso

SKF and SRS making a comeback?

7/23/2009 2:09:54 PM

^^ Oh that is certainly true and I never play the shorting game, exactly for the reason you stated. But things have stayed much more golden than reality for much longer than typical, so it feels like the jig is about up, at least on the upside (downside may still take some time).

7/23/2009 2:41:00 PM

^^ I saw that earlier but I don't think they'll let it pass. Or either, GS has something else up its sleeve to eliminate rivals. Think about it, why would we tell the banks they don't have to mark to market, give them billions, then tell them they DO have to mark the bad debt to market...unless they (the Fed, Treasury) thinks they have the PPIP set up now that they can force the bad debt onto the taxpayer in a way that we won't notice or scream about. As it is now, we are backstopping that bad debt and will profit if C and BAC (and others) go back up with the equity we injected. But, if there is some way those banks can force us to BUY that bad debt..and at elevated prices for sure...then they won't need the equity injection and they can go back to paying their execs massive bonuses.

The idea here is to drag this out as long as possible and to try and steal from the taxpayer as quietly as possible.

Quote :

"so it feels like the jig is about up, at least on the upside (downside may still take some time)."

But this is what people said a few weeks ago when we finally got a little bit of a real correction from the rise off March, and yet, here we go ago, powering back past that high and heading higher. It's going to take a strong negative catalyst in the near term to reverse these trends. Longer term we may see reality set in as the earnings don't improve and the jobless numbers don't fall, but that could just mean the low we return to is the resistance we just blasted through today.

[Edited on July 23, 2009 at 2:59 PM. Reason : .]

7/23/2009 2:55:52 PM

sold some AMZN & FUQI around 3pm

put in a bunch of tight trailing stops

7/23/2009 4:18:44 PM

Wow. 36% of my stocks are above their strike prices. While I'm bummed that it will limit my upside, it's still indicative of pretty good performance.

Fortunately I also sold a lot of naked puts about a week ago.

7/23/2009 4:31:45 PM

Yeah, I'm kinda kicking myself for taking off some VLO and BA naked puts that were only up 50 and 65%.

7/23/2009 4:33:59 PM

http://www.dshort.com/charts/bears/price-and-volume-large.gif

7/23/2009 6:18:37 PM

^^^ Scratch that. 55% of my stocks are now above their strike price. I had expected a pullback by now.

BTW, who has two thumbs and screwed the pooch with some MSFT puts?

7/24/2009 6:22:44 PM

Ive begrudgingly stayed long for quite some time. My accounts àre all up 30-35 percent ytd which is quite amazing since I never really went to cash, have no margin or options eityher. Just been long the right places chinan emergingn aapl, energy, gold, and huge move in convertible bonds.

I still think things are going to get ugly I'm ready to go 100 pct cash at any moment

7/25/2009 5:25:25 PM

just bought some

SOHU, BBV, & TEVA

and also CISG yesterday



[Edited on July 28, 2009 at 12:25 PM. Reason : yester]

7/28/2009 12:24:39 PM

I love when an idea and the execution works flawlessly.

My alerts guy suggested getting some MSFT calls because new rumors of the YHOO deal were surfacing again and 23 seemed to hold after the initial dump on the earnings news. I got some Jan 10 calls for 3.20. I was a bit early and they eventually traded down to around 3.10. No big deal. I saw the stock was up modestly with the market down. I figured there would be an initial pump with the lemmings trying to get in, watched the market for about 30 seconds, waited on it to pause and then fired in a sell order the MM couldn't refuse..out at 3.70. Those calls are now trading for 3.55.

Also bought some QID and SRS calls into the close yesterday I just closed for a modest 10%.



[Edited on July 29, 2009 at 9:46 AM. Reason : .]

7/29/2009 9:44:44 AM

finally unloaded some EDC north of 108, still have about half of it

7/30/2009 11:57:26 AM

heh, this market is once again making everyone look like a genius

well, everyone except people that still think fundamentals matter

7/30/2009 12:24:48 PM

Bought some F 9 puts and SRS 15 calls.

8/3/2009 10:00:09 AM

^^but the fundamentals are strong.

8/3/2009 11:45:07 AM

I can't tell if you are being sarcastic or what.

8/3/2009 12:02:20 PM

ssjamind, that youtube you posted two-three weeks ago was pretty interesting. The guy is using strictly charts, regressions, fib's etc to make his trades. He said that once the Dow shot through I think something like 8550 after we dipped underneath 8K recently, he didn't see it retracing until it hit 9400, and he said that once it hit the 8550, it would break out meaning i guess we'd see it hit 9400 with very minimal pullback along the way, which is exactly what happened. I saw that link when the Dow was at 8700 and thought it can't go to 9400 on a break out, I mean it went from 8000 to 8600 with little pullback. Interesting, the bull balloon I thought was about to burst at 8700 is over 9300.

8/3/2009 4:48:14 PM

For you successful folks, are you killed by capital gains taxes?

8/3/2009 4:51:48 PM

what have you bought and held that is up for at least 12 months?

8/4/2009 10:56:17 AM

Maybe he is talking about short term.

8/4/2009 11:18:27 AM

It's official, SRS has finished the severing of my balls it started a couple months ago, carved out a vagina, and has hooked up a perpetual motion machine set to high speed fuck.

There is something sickly impressive with a stock that can just be sold and sold and sold for 2 straight hours without a correction anywhere.

8/4/2009 12:33:22 PM

I dumped it like a psychotic girlfriend a few months back, but not before I lost around 5 grand

but strangely, it's been booty calling me again lately, just when i'm feeling lonely.


(i never get tired of stock/female analogies)

8/4/2009 12:36:44 PM

I nibbled at it around 30 and 25 then stayed away for awhile, cursing the banks that were gaming the REIT stocks. For about 2.5-3 weeks up until today it has been very predictable during this run up. My alerts guy started liking it at 19, so I first sold a couple of puts on it at 17. Then, he started liking it even more and I bought calls on it at 16, 15, and today just before the cliff I thought I'd try to start nibbling at my loss and sold 13 puts for .35 that are now trading for .65.

The losses aren't big, but after being a retard back in late April/May in my play account, I had slowly eeked up about 12% from that point and these SRS plays have nearly wiped all that out today alone.

8/4/2009 12:43:52 PM

yeah, it's like the old saying goes,

The market can stay irrational a whole lot longer than you can stay solvent.

never more true than now.

8/4/2009 12:44:53 PM

Getting beasted again. It's pretty insane how I can manage to lose so much on what looks like reasonable risk plays, claw it back being uber cautious and taking profits way too early, and then have it happen all over again.

Fucking homebuilders up? Really? With all the damn overhang still out there and unemployed consumers? Seriously?

It's mind numbing how manipulated this market has become. I'm tempted just to say fuck it, book this loss and walk away for a couple months until real volume returns. If it turns back up next day, fuck em. No sense in trying to beat a bunch of guys that have an ok from the government to cheat the market. Shit, rumors are floating that the Fed is actively buying equities.

8/5/2009 9:49:45 AM