https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/06/19/countries-keeping-coronavirus-bay-experts-watch-us-case-numbers-with-alarm/
6/19/2020 8:49:58 PM
I've been continuing to check this regularly:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/Looks like it's going sideways to me, not down. Not to mention the last 4-5 days have been a steady incline: 26k, 27k, 28k, and around 34k today! 4500 in texas, almost 4000 in florida. The first wave never ended, you dumb fucks.
6/19/2020 9:05:31 PM
^That's only because of our vastly superior testing. Thank you, President Trump!
6/20/2020 4:08:17 AM
This
6/22/2020 4:23:36 PM
There are too many variables WRT to testing to know if case numbers represent infection. Death numbers are really the only ones you can rely on and they have been on the steady but slow decline since peaking in April. The media makes it seem like they have gone back up but that just isn't true. Cases- If you only test people who come in sick then your cases represent extreme cases which is just a small % of total cases. (Lets say 10 people in the hospital, 9 test positive 90%)Testing- As your testing capacity increases, you start to test more people with mild symptoms. Cases go up even if the spread has gone down. (Lets say you have now tested 100 people and 50 are positive (50%) and 9 are admitted)Positive rate- Positive rate is affected by the sample of who you are testing. It can go up and down depending on that sample and not just on the spread. It only aligns with the spread if you are always testing a random sample of the population. The first two examples I gave have the same hospitalization rate and likely similar infection rates but vastly different positive rates and case numbers because of the sample of people who are being tested. Hospitalization rates should not be very variable and death rates should not be variable at all. We need to stick to using the death rates and not overreact to case numbers. People don't like that because they want the instant gratification and deaths take longer to happen. The reality is that some place have seen an increase of infection but the nation overall is still on the decline.
6/22/2020 5:02:07 PM
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-statesNotice how positive test rate was up over 20% but went down as more tests were done. more negative opportunities but also more positive opportunities. More cases. 20% of 100k vs 5% of 500k. Which is bigger?Its more a function of how much random testing is being done. With no random testing you get higher % positive.
6/22/2020 5:08:51 PM
Trying to figure out if an upward slope on positive test rate is good or bad
6/22/2020 5:40:01 PM
The only thing that really matters is hospitalizations and deaths. Even positive case count imo at this point is only a secondary metric, insofar as much as it impacts the first two.[Edited on June 22, 2020 at 6:53 PM. Reason : segment by age group]
6/22/2020 6:51:33 PM
Except those two metrics may lag any uptick in cases
6/22/2020 7:22:10 PM
In NC at least hospitalizations are up like 75% since reopening. Where are the national COVID hospitalization numbers?^^ The percentage of tests coming back positive increasing is concerning to me given who they were giving these tests to months back.[Edited on June 22, 2020 at 7:47 PM. Reason : ]
6/22/2020 7:38:37 PM
Think I saw hospitalizations lag cases by two weeks and deaths lag another two weeks after that, so positive news is that deaths in NC at least aren't spiking yet.
6/22/2020 7:46:20 PM
America always lacks empathyhttps://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1275261089165594625.html
6/23/2020 8:05:44 AM
6/23/2020 8:08:01 AM
Yea what I assume are the challenges of being Black in America and having to choose bw putting your life at risk during a pandemic (not to mention from the cops patrolling protests) or staying silent about systemic racism and murders of Black people.But I also saw more masks in protest pictures than at half the restaurants I got takeout from last weekend [Edited on June 23, 2020 at 8:57 AM. Reason : E]
6/23/2020 8:56:55 AM
On the bright side, for those of us that like salmon, we're now going to be able to buy it cheap.
6/23/2020 8:59:26 AM
^^ it's kinda hard to eat food in a restaurant with a mask on.I understand your point, but you're not going to be sitting down at a table with a mask on. If that's not kosher, then either restaurants should not have dining at tables at all and/or you personally shouldn't be going into them.
6/23/2020 9:16:08 AM
Peaceful protests may be good for mental health as they have been locked down and forced to stay at home for more than three months.
6/23/2020 9:25:53 AM
^^restaurants should not have dining indoors at all right now. Outdoors restaurants should limit party size but also people shouldn't be getting together with friend groups to eat. I was getting takeout from outside but I have eyes and places have windows. Besides that not even doctors and hospitals are mandating masks.
6/23/2020 9:39:21 AM
^ I ate outdoors at a place in New York State when I was travelling there for work a couple weeks ago and I was absolutely observing friends getting together to eat (or have a beer together to be more accurate), about a dozen or so.My state went to next phase of opening up this past week. My rugby team had a get-together at our bar the first day it was allowed to open and I attended an auto race Sunday night. They had signs saying to social distance but there was zero enforcement and it was entirely ignored. So that answers my question on if we have college football games and fans are there under the predisposition of social distancing what's going to happen: nothing, friends are going to ignore it and congregate. The only other alternative is you have the police and security enforcing it. Oh right, we as a society hate the police now... With some hindsight, I can look at these decisions for me to attend and say neither was really bright, but I just want stuff to get back to normal and took the risk. The people attending at the bar and the race are neither left nor right, just people that want to do their activities they always do. The race crowd are more Republican-leaning than you'd normally find and the bar crowd are more Democrat-leaning than you'd normally find. I'm more libertarian-minded but that's literally the only way to do this social distancing in public arenas if you deem it absolutely necessary is the police/National Guard/similar entities goes out and enforces it, either on the individual basis or the business basis. That also means public protests should be banned, be they protesting social distancing measures governments are imposing or Black Lives Matter protests. Problem is we as a society side on individual liberty and don't believe in the types of government crackdowns that to fight the virus you should do. Covid contact tracing that Apple and New York City are for example doing (and other Western countries like Germany. China is doing it too although that fits in with them). There's this law the EU Parliament passed of entities recording your digital data being banned that a lot of people think should be implemented here. This contact tracing literally flies in the face against, and I'm sure there's a lot of lawyers trying to figure out how to work around that law and still do it in the EU.(The NYC tracing by the way is already being determined to be completely ineffective.)[Edited on June 23, 2020 at 10:45 AM. Reason : /]
6/23/2020 10:26:07 AM
"i just want things to get back to normal, but I will do things that actively work against that goal"
6/23/2020 10:46:21 AM
^ I have always followed the rules set by the states I've been in. I've spent time in the states of Indiana, North Carolina, and New York since this thing started (and drove back and forth from Indiana to New York 5 round trips the past 3 months, so tack on Ohio and Pennsylvania). Outside of that I've pretty much always been at home, in my hotel room when I was not working in New York, or only seeing a small group of family members. My ticket Sunday night was taken by a guy with a Sheriff's Department shirt on. Whether he actually worked for the Sheriff, I don't know, but 100% there was some kind of police presence there, and social distancing protocols for everyone in the facility were merely suggestions. I'm making the point everyone regardless of their political beliefs are going to do what they feel versus "follow suggestions".If going to a restaurant and sitting down and eating should not be allowed due to health risk, then we should literally as a society be considering martial law because you have to enforce all these health measures, people will not do it themselves.
6/23/2020 11:04:11 AM
Your ticket?
6/23/2020 11:42:42 AM
Well my QR code on my phone from pre-ordering.
6/23/2020 11:44:07 AM
Cops enforcing mask wearing is probably the only way to achieve 99% compliance. But if you had leadership, of all political leanings, church leaders, Doctors, TV pundits, etc, constantly beating in to people the importance of wearing masks and social distancing, And how it’s really the only solution until a vaccine, I’d bet we could get to 75% compliance.Instead we have the entirety of a political party and the most watched cable news channel constantly downplaying it, suggesting miracle drugs with no evidence, spreading conspiracy theories and flaunting expert advice.
6/23/2020 12:00:13 PM
Covid-19 vaccine will be ready by the end of the year. Good news.
6/23/2020 12:08:40 PM
^^ The same cops are going to enforce mask wearing that currently do not enforce many laws? All while remembering police is a locally carried out function versus one that is controlled federally.To go back to a post I made in the spring college football thread in Sports talk:
6/23/2020 12:27:10 PM
The point is being made in the 2nd paragraph. If we had leadership that gave a damn about the country instead of scoring political points you could get 75% of the way to compliance.[Edited on June 23, 2020 at 12:32 PM. Reason : Without a need for cops to police everyone]
6/23/2020 12:31:30 PM
6/23/2020 12:44:28 PM
6/23/2020 1:08:08 PM
One thing I just remembered as far as cops enforcing mask wearing. When this whole thing started, eons and ages ago, my work gave me a piece of paper to print and have with me when I travel saying I am mission critical for this reason supporting X. A good number of people got these for their jobs based on reading my Facebook and friends. My friend in our city's police force at the time said the unit would not be enforcing people not driving on the road or being out. I made 5 8-hour round trips to New York State. I drove locally. I drove to North Carolina and back. Not once was I ever stopped and asked for this piece of paper. That's a lot of police district jurisdictions I drove in.[Edited on June 23, 2020 at 1:11 PM. Reason : .]
6/23/2020 1:10:31 PM
6/23/2020 1:17:00 PM
Yeah, I'm ignoring Covid. I only posted this on page 1 of this thread back on January 28th.
6/23/2020 1:23:37 PM
6/23/2020 1:37:15 PM
^ so why the mission critical travel statements? companies don't spend time to publish bullshit for nothing
6/23/2020 1:52:45 PM
Except the governor is a politician, and politicians like to be re-elected. I feel like Cooper has even relented on what we should be doing for what many people want, because it's an election year.
6/23/2020 1:58:27 PM
FR made so many wild statements on this page, it would be quite a task to address them all
6/23/2020 1:59:47 PM
Yes, if it wasn't for the economy (and convenience), common sense would dictate that everything should remain closed until infection rates creep to a crawl, and we're far from that. The decision to reopen is probably more influenced by the economy and the public's convenience (which effects re-election) than what's best for the populations' health.[Edited on June 23, 2020 at 2:03 PM. Reason : ]
6/23/2020 2:02:33 PM
6/23/2020 2:25:28 PM
^ If it is determined not safe to go into a restaurant, how can it then be determined it is safe to go into a grocery?If you state X, X has to be applied to everything that has similar circumstances. I'm not arguing groceries should be closed, I'm asking for a principle developed by governments with thought put into it that is applied in a uniform manner with no waivers. But no one here wants to do that, they just want to engage in point scoring.
6/23/2020 2:41:58 PM
there are plenty of reasons1) grocery stores are often much larger than restaurants 2) the amount of ways germs can be spread in restaurants far exceeds the way they can be spread in grocery storesI’ll just stop with those two[Edited on June 23, 2020 at 2:50 PM. Reason : .]
6/23/2020 2:49:49 PM
6/23/2020 2:52:51 PM
Also, you can (and should) wear a mask in a grocery store.
6/23/2020 2:57:16 PM
Justin it's simple. If armed guards prevent me from entering a bar and the police arrest me when I intentionally cough on the elderly, then I'll stop! What else do you expect from me?
6/23/2020 3:00:04 PM
6/23/2020 3:25:03 PM
6/23/2020 3:32:38 PM
6/23/2020 3:34:23 PM
6/23/2020 3:55:08 PM
6/23/2020 4:06:36 PM
^^thanks G
6/23/2020 4:55:23 PM
NP, Terd. May have been a typo / autocorrect.
6/23/2020 5:02:48 PM