got dat EDC at 18.05

10/26/2011 3:16:19 PM

Nice. How long you plan on holding it?

10/26/2011 4:00:58 PM

so greece defaults and market soars. makes total sense.

[Edited on October 27, 2011 at 9:22 AM. Reason : .]

10/27/2011 9:22:04 AM

Pretty good corp earnings season so far and comparatively good domestic economic data..

Still waiting for doomsday..

[Edited on October 27, 2011 at 9:43 AM. Reason : so far]

10/27/2011 9:42:43 AM

^^Hope you got out of SPXU

10/27/2011 10:04:14 AM

just now monetized half of that EDC position at 21.3

10/27/2011 10:13:45 AM

^ man, I saw the alert at midnightish about the EU bailout, and my first thought was, damn, I knew I should have bought some EDC earlier.

glad you did.

10/27/2011 11:54:57 AM

MTW finally going back up. Wish I had pushed even more into it but some nice two day gains.

10/27/2011 7:46:58 PM

Waiting on doomsday? Is it not obvious it's almost here?

How long do you expect this "bailout" to last. I say bailout in quotes because it accomplishes nothing.

All they've done is leveraged the entire continent so they can get Greece's Debt to GDP ratio back down to 110%. How long do you think that will last?

Now the entire continent is on the hook for this meltdown. The EFSF will be wiped out of capital in a matter of a couple months/years.

Oh and by the way, they just raped the validity of CDS. Now no one can buy CDS to protect themselves. So how in god's earth do you expect them to be able issue bonds now? This is a total disaster, much worse than if they'd allowed Greece to default awhile back.

10/27/2011 9:52:54 PM

Quote :

" The EFSF will be wiped out of capital in a matter of a couple months/years."

Your end of days prediction keeps slipping from weeks, to months...to now years.

10/27/2011 9:54:05 PM

The CDS/haircut was addressed as part of the voluntary haircut. Keep an eye on your Bloomberg terminal tomorrow and me if the CDS market has dried up.

A broken clock is correct twice a day.

10/27/2011 10:16:28 PM

No, I've been consistent with the US going down in ~5 years.

I've said for a long time Europe collapses by year end/early 2012 if they let the defaults occur or they can try to buy themselves a little more time by punting and facing a bigger collapse shortly soonafter.

None of these "solutions" are solutions. Solutions solve a problem. These solutions create a bigger problem.

Enough with the broken clock bullshit, I've told you how it's going to happen and it is how it's going to happen. Exact timeframes are impossible because there are variables, but the outcome is always the same. The debt supercycle ends in chaos either through a collapse in asset prices during the solvency crisis or skyrocketing prices in a currency crisis.

There really aren't any other possible outcomes.

2 years ago when I said there would be violent protests and riots in the US you said I was a fool. Now, everyone realizes that was a correct statement. They've barely begun. We haven't even gotten massive unemployment and hyper inflation yet and people are already up in arms.

10/27/2011 10:49:55 PM

Where did you post that?

10/28/2011 7:34:47 AM

re EDC and 'risk on' in general, part of what is getting me back in (atleast for the near term/next few months), is that China is on the sidelines with a checkbook waiting to step in if needed. i don't think they want to see the two biggest customers of their goods, the US and EU, collapse anytime soon.

from all the emotion in the charts and on TV, it feels like now through the rest of the year will be a 'buy the dips' sort of environment, with the intent to sell in January.

i'm also considering GS and will likely place a 'good until cancelled' limit to buy somewhere between 100 and 110.

10/28/2011 11:10:31 AM

Calling PPO to be in the 70s by end of next week. Earnings on 11.3

10/28/2011 11:33:02 AM

Quote :

"Somehow, we dodged buckshot that was fired from three paces away. It’s impressive—and it doesn’t please investors or debt hawks at all. Actually, no: It’s another disaster."

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2011/10/deficit_hawks_ask_what_will_it_take_to_get_washington_to_care_ab.single.html

10/28/2011 2:49:09 PM

^^^ China is in pretty bad shape right now they are backstopping huge amounts of debt that's starting to go bad at unbelievable rates.

This is when you hit reset on the nintendo.

10/30/2011 2:48:55 PM

bought back that EDC and then some at 20

also bought some SLV at the close

10/31/2011 4:24:34 PM

Quote :

"Zynga Inc is currently planning to price its initial public offering and have its shares begin trading the week before the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on November 24, two sources briefed on the offering said on Monday. The sources cautioned that the social gaming company's plan has not been finalized and could change. They spoke on condition of anonymity because the plans are not public. Zynga's debut is among a clutch of highly anticipated dotcom IPOs. Groupon launched its own roadshow this week and hopes to price its shares in early November. If it goes ahead, Groupon will become the first major IPO since the market slump that began in the summer, serving as a litmus test for future offerings."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/25/us-zynga-ipo-idUSTRE79N7SP20111025

10/31/2011 4:51:16 PM

bought $gld calls at the close.

10/31/2011 4:56:26 PM

face is absolutely right. the crisis is here.

just tonight i was counting my bullets when a group of masked young people showed up at my door demanding food (i imagine that they would have also stormed my house and taken my gold if they'd had their way). fortunately i had a firearm handy and was able to wing a few of them as they ran into the night.

10/31/2011 9:11:46 PM

Creepy day, we did about 1/10 of the bus we did Friday. 1/3 of the floor gone and rumors MF Global had big customer money missing. That rally from 1200 to 1290 was people figuring out CDS's will never pay and you had better cover your shorts. This MF chapter 11 crushed derivative liquidity accords the commodity complex. Better hope things don't go one way in the market before this is settled there is no volume to support price movement

10/31/2011 11:51:34 PM

dangit

11/1/2011 10:28:20 AM

likely buying a little more EDC down here.

bought GS @ 103.

11/1/2011 10:32:22 AM

^^^We'll get more details in time...maybe...but I'm guessing MF Global was just the sacrificial lamb here. Someone had to take a hit, and Jim Corzine got the short straw.

Now, in a just, sane society, Jim Corzine would go to jail for this. In the United States, he'll probably get appointed to a top government position.

[Edited on November 1, 2011 at 11:18 AM. Reason : Obama's "Council on Truth in Accounting", perhaps]

11/1/2011 11:14:49 AM

Hundreds of millions missing from Corzine-run brokerage firm
Regulators say former N.J. governor's company failed to keep clients' money separate from firms' money

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45114515/ns/business-us_business/

11/1/2011 11:44:17 AM

time to buy more Fluor again.

11/1/2011 12:20:54 PM

Nothing to see here folks just an ordinary stock market crash.

11/1/2011 4:04:17 PM

What's going to happen first face?

http://money.msn.com/how-to-invest/4-scary-economic-scenarios-mirhaydari.aspx?page=0

11/2/2011 1:44:47 PM

all of them at the same time

11/2/2011 3:43:41 PM

Inflation is running at 4% YOY right now and you're trumpeting 2.5% GDP?

Not to mention that GDP number is based on rising inventories and unsustainable government spending.

Europe is crumbling, China is gridning to a halt, credit markets are seizing, banks are failing, counterparty risk is skyrocketing, deficits are blowing open, rates are rising, etc.

Look no further than Italy and Spain. If it's not obvious to you that the system is failing by now, it will never be.

That article is already severely outdated.

[Edited on November 3, 2011 at 9:50 AM. Reason : a]

11/3/2011 9:49:26 AM

Doomsday or Mike Vick winning a super bowl, which will happen first face?

11/3/2011 11:33:07 AM

Yea face, who cares we are about to loose 2 primary dealers in a week, as long as I can read celebrity gossip on my iPad and not pay my morguage everything is fine.

11/3/2011 11:56:55 AM

For real. Who pays a morguage anyway?

11/3/2011 12:36:20 PM

Inflation isn't anywhere near 4% nor is it forecasted to be anywhere near 4%.

http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2011/survq311.cfm

Government spending has decreased in q2 and q3. I will look up the data when I have time.

Agreed that euro zone is in trouble...however, hasn't stopped q3 earnings from being largely positive.

Only CPCR that is increasing is, again, out of Europe.

11/3/2011 8:17:00 PM

anyone in on grpn?

11/3/2011 10:05:52 PM

i'm trying to get in on grpn, but sharebuilder isn't letting me buy yet.

11/4/2011 9:54:45 AM

just picked up some TNA @ 47.1

[Edited on November 4, 2011 at 11:42 AM. Reason : ]

11/4/2011 11:42:00 AM

In on 100 of GRPN.

[Edited on November 4, 2011 at 12:02 PM. Reason : bought @ $27.94]

11/4/2011 11:58:39 AM

I'm thinking Groupon will be a tasty short.

11/4/2011 12:04:04 PM

yeah, i'm not in this one for the long haul.

11/4/2011 12:19:05 PM

RST can go fuck itself today.

11/4/2011 12:33:54 PM

Groupon is a terrible company and its stock will get destroyed very soon.

And the latest inflation reading was 4% YOY. But don't take my word for it, you can just look at the most recent data.

11/4/2011 2:10:58 PM

Just like BP and AAPL, right?

11/4/2011 2:12:02 PM

AAPL will have its day. It can hold the volumes and the margins. Something has to give. It's a great company though.

BP i may have fallen for the media hype I'll admit. Or they could get destroyed by lawsuits its a little early to tell.

GRPN on the other hand has invented a business that loses more money than God and the owners have been racing to the exits cashing out and laughing all the way to the bank. They raised what, 6 rounds of private capital? Almost 100% of it went to cashing out of the business and plugging their record losses until they could dump this dog on the public in an IPO.

No barrier to entry, ponzi business model, PAYDAY loans to small business owners, record mammoth losses. What's not to like?!

If you loved Netflix then you've gotta love GROUPON, it's 100x the dog Netflix is.

11/4/2011 2:38:22 PM

I decided to stay away from Groupon but still have my AAPL.

Be wary of Groupon
This IPO is just a repeat of the previous dot-com era, when so many investors lost so much money.

http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.aspx?post=89bb95db-596f-43e6-aa91-fa6ae3cd6e30&_nwpt=1

11/4/2011 2:48:15 PM

WEN has been doing well the last week or two

11/4/2011 2:52:37 PM

any of you fools buy into GRPN? So glad I avoided this one after reading an article or two.

11/4/2011 6:54:26 PM

Euro not saved? But they said it was fine.

11/9/2011 2:41:16 PM

I'm only happy when it rains

11/9/2011 2:50:55 PM