Quote :

"Warren would be a good vp."

I like Warren but she should absolutely not be VP, because having a 71 year old VP for a 78 year old President is a manifestly shit idea.

Still, by all means get a very progressive woman on the ticket. Biden doesn't care; he doesn't have a strong ideological position, he just wants to be President. But for Christ's sake pick one who has another couple of decades left in the tank.

4/9/2020 8:15:54 AM

Quote :

"new @CNN poll of registered voters: Biden 53% Trump 42%"

These are abysmal numbers for an incumbent president

Biden is probably going to screw this up but he can easily win

4/9/2020 12:06:19 PM

lol, +11

more like +5... good job cnn

4/9/2020 12:12:36 PM

^ even +5 is bad

Looking at 2004 and 2012, each race had very different dynamics. In 2012 Obama was ahead almost all the time except at the end. I could see this race being the same except Trump behind almost all the time, then making moves late to gain a lead.

Either way, i see a lot of people saying this is a shoe-in for Trump, but the data doesn't show that. People thought Biden was out and cleaned up in SC and later states, so people should be questioning the punditry and twitter consensus and your own presumptions.

On the state level, Biden claws back some of the rust-belt states trump flipped, even with his mealy-mouthed speech patterns. Trump would have to flip new states, and I don't see that happening.

4/9/2020 12:17:02 PM

In 2016 people interpreted their misunderstanding of polling as inaccurate polling.

2020 is going to be full of pundits "knowing" better than polling.

4/9/2020 1:29:31 PM

Biden doesn’t have a strong stance in marijuana legalization, I could see trump coming out in favor of legalizing weed as a ploy:
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/joe-biden-mistakenly-says-he-would-legalize-marijuana-before-correcting-himself/

4/9/2020 4:13:00 PM

Biden is trying to disguise a proposed expansion of medicare to 60-65 year olds as an olive branch to Bernie supporters. This policy would:

-increase costs of medicare, making it look more dysfunctional
-reduce costs for insurance companies by removing their most expensive demographic
-increase insurance profits as they continue to collect premiums from healthier demographics
-likely lead to increase tax burden to cover additional medicare costs

So we end up paying for two systems. One to fill the pockets of insurance companies and one to cover the elderly. Just dandy.

4/9/2020 6:58:06 PM

Quote :

"I could see this race being the same except Trump behind almost all the time, then making moves late to gain a lead."

Trump will be behind the entire time due to shitty polling, just like in 2016.

4/9/2020 7:15:42 PM

The polling in 2016 was fine. People just were in disbelief at how close he was.

4/9/2020 7:46:43 PM

i must be remembering things differently than you

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Aggregate_polls

4/9/2020 7:52:22 PM

^ im not seeing what you’re saying. Polls showed Hillary getting more votes by a few percentage and she did.

Models projected a neck and neck finish towards the end and that’s what happened.

4/9/2020 8:05:51 PM

Final 2016 polling by state (striped states were within margin of error):


Clinton 216
Trump 184
Within the margin of error 134

The only two states called in this map incorrectly were Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which Trump won by 0.77% and 0.72% respectively.

4/9/2020 8:48:06 PM

We don’t need to re-litigate this for the millionth time but if Giuliani hadn’t pulled strings on the backend to make comey do a 2nd investigation announcement Hillary would have won

4/9/2020 9:20:50 PM

Quote :

"Models projected a neck and neck finish towards the end and that’s what happened."

so you're implying that the models were correct and that the media just lied their ass off about it? This place spent a couple of months spouting off about how there was no path to victory for Trump, he had less than a 2% chance of victory according the the models, and everyone was scared to death that he wouldn't accept his guaranteed loss.

[Edited on April 9, 2020 at 9:28 PM. Reason : ^Comey didn't convince rust belt people not to vote for Hillary - NAFTA did]

4/9/2020 9:27:22 PM

^re the edit, that’s not what the data shows

Yes the models were fundamentally right. Trumps win was a statistical fluke. The day before the election predictions was more like 70/30, and the 30% chance event is what happened. It’s really not that strange unless you just don’t understand how probabilities and statistics work.

4/9/2020 9:32:05 PM

The reliable models showed a 70/30 split. The NYT model showed 99/1 and that got reported far and wide.

4/9/2020 10:06:57 PM

Don't understand Moron's point. Trump winning when he was given a 30% chance to win is a statistical fluke?

4/9/2020 10:48:56 PM

Based on link TT posted, perhaps all it takes is looking at USC/LATimes polls in 2020, if they use same methodology

4/10/2020 12:02:35 AM

Polls were fine. They are a snapshot in time. They closed dramatically after Comey’s deal.

It’s re-writing history time say they were wrong.

Trump won and threaded the needle. Leicester City winning the EPL was a far bigger long shot at any time in the cycle than Trump winning.

[Edited on April 10, 2020 at 12:37 AM. Reason : Polls =/ probabilities and it’s no use arguing with anyone who disagrees]

4/10/2020 12:36:25 AM

What if trump came out for Medicare for all? His supporters would fall in line and would fulfill his promise to give everyone healthcare for cheaper

4/10/2020 11:07:54 AM

No way McConnell would go for that.

4/10/2020 11:18:00 AM

JFC, Trump is not going to come out for M4A. Every shred of reality in the world flies in the face of the broken brained “aCtuAlLy ThE gOp Is OuTfLaNkInG dEmS fRoM tHe LeFT”.

Just fucking stop. Please.

[Edited on April 10, 2020 at 11:37 AM. Reason : His campaign is literately already calling Biden a socialist. Stop. Stop. Stop.]

4/10/2020 11:37:00 AM

I can’t even get over this. Why do people project their own desired policy outcomes on to Trump as legitimate positions he might take? This isn’t the first time. We all know he is impulsive and just says nonsense left and right. Is that why?

Like what malfunction do you have to have to believe that Donald fucking Trump who has spent two years (including literally two days ago) mercilessly bashing AOC, Tlaib and Omar as radical socialists who want to bring communism to America will all of a sudden adopt their most talked about policy position.

It’s insane. Batshit cuckoo.

4/10/2020 11:52:16 AM

^^



[Edited on April 10, 2020 at 1:04 PM. Reason : ^ too]

4/10/2020 1:04:11 PM

I think the question was purely a hypothetical because he led with "what if Trump" instead of "I could see Trump".

He's not going to do M4A but I could definitely see hiim doing something to the left of Obamacare since his entire message was to "repeal and replace" with something "better" that "lowers costs" and "covers everybody". I'm guessing its going to be going be something barely left of obamacare and then establishing some weak ass publicly subsidized private option for everyone else.

That still would outflank them and barely outflanking them would be the best choice for winning "lesser evil" voters.

Then theres the idea of delirious Trump which I don't buy. Operating by that theory would open up the possibility of Trump being completely unpredictable and waking up feeling socialist one day then pushing for something like M4A. I believe he is highly calculated but if I didn't, I'd be holding on to hope of that happening. Crazy senile people might do anything and unlike Biden, Trump is completely unleashed which means his impulses actually have a chance of gaining traction

[Edited on April 10, 2020 at 1:49 PM. Reason : trump owns the senate]

4/10/2020 1:47:41 PM

What if Trump adopted all of my preferred policy positions isn’t a hypothetical worth asking. Period.

Trump does not and has not ever had a healthcare plan. Nor will he before Election Day.

Stop being an easy mark.

[Edited on April 10, 2020 at 2:04 PM. Reason : I live on a different planet than you]

4/10/2020 2:04:02 PM

You want to have it both ways

4/10/2020 2:07:22 PM

I read the hypothetical as "if trump all of a sudden said 'M4A', all of his followers would immediately back it because they are clueless idiotic sheep"

4/10/2020 3:17:26 PM

Of course they would and conversely, if Biden all of a sudden said 'no M4A', all of his followers would immediately be against it. Thats just the theocratic state of politics in america.

4/10/2020 3:33:19 PM

Trump likes simple ideas that his tiny brain can process and m4A falls into that regime. I see no indication that trump will actually do this but it’s the kind of idea that he normally likes. They’re already using Medicare rates to cover everyone’s coronavirus treatments. There’s a pathway here for the gop to become the m4a party without seeming like complete hypocrites.

The other side of this equation is Biden has planted his flag on Obamacare and a public option . He has less room to maneuver here.

Also completely separately, I’ve seen a few people using the Bush era attack of “trump lied people died” I can see that sticking of Biden’s team can get organized.

4/10/2020 5:16:20 PM

how’d that work out for John Kerry?

4/10/2020 5:27:44 PM

^ bush did historically bad for an incumbent

4/10/2020 6:41:38 PM

Bernie Sanders was on "All in with chris hayes" and basically said he wouldn't be surprised if Trump pitched something that was basically "medicare for all"

4/10/2020 8:35:13 PM

So fucking what?

4/10/2020 9:08:03 PM

The Republicans have had what, 10 years to suggest a replacement for Obamacare? Trump has had 3. It's not happening. They'll make a couple of empty promises and false claims about how a replacement is coming and it's going to be so much better but you'll just have to wait till December to see the details

4/10/2020 10:01:07 PM

Quote :

"bush did historically bad for an incumbent"

Who cares he won

Margin of victory is meaningless.

4/10/2020 11:19:25 PM

^ right but Bush was starting from a higher position than trump. Trump lied people died

[Edited on April 11, 2020 at 12:18 PM. Reason : ]

4/11/2020 12:18:25 PM

This Tara Reade thing is gaining traction
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-sexual-assault-police-tara-reade-1497391

I personally think she’s mostly telling the truth based on the fact she told several people about it. Biden probably misread her for flirting and took it way too far (as opposed to him just being a sexual predator like trump).

Biden should drop out and release his delegates. Republicans aren’t bothered by trump’s treatment of women but this would cost Biden the election if he can’t resolve this in a way that provides justice for the victim while keeping it out of the public eye.

4/11/2020 3:23:06 PM

No it's not.

https://medium.com/@eddiekrassenstein/evidence-casts-doubt-on-tara-reades-sexual-assault-allegations-of-joe-biden-e4cb3ee38460?fbclid=IwAR0xzxzBjXRQc8-az0EbC4SxpmkkuPKuFpAnVBV4lxXsvmpMXRN28IQVleE

4/11/2020 4:02:05 PM

Seriously, Biden was heavily vetted by 3 campaigns (Obama, McCain, Romney). He was a heartbeat away from the presidency for 8 years with Republicans investigating constantly making huge deals out of nothing (Obama birth certificate).

I am extremely skeptical of any new accusations of wrong doing

[Edited on April 11, 2020 at 4:14 PM. Reason : A]

[Edited on April 11, 2020 at 4:15 PM. Reason : N]

4/11/2020 4:13:56 PM

^ I saw that but those are just insinuations. I think everyone here probably have friends and family with weird conspiracy beliefs based on YouTube etc, so the Russian stuff doesn’t strike me as suspicious.

Her praising Biden on social media is a little suspicious but people frequently see past experiences in new light, and the metoo movement could have made her realize that Biden’s infatuation with her wasn’t just an attempt at an affair, but a predatory assault.

If it’s not true at all then I hope Biden has some solid evidence. If it was a consensual affair that might be something Biden can weather. If it was a boss preying on an underling I don’t see Biden weathering that, and if he’s the nominee then he would have no chance.

4/11/2020 4:17:08 PM

How exactly do you prove something didn't happen decades ago?

Seriously, the burden of proof is on her. Innocent till proven guilty. I'm fine with an investigation playing out, but so far I've seen no proof

4/11/2020 4:20:50 PM

That’s a fine point but how about we stay away from Krassenstein medium posts?

Quote :

" Biden should drop out and release his delegates."

In your mind, what does this look like? Genuinely curious..

[Edited on April 11, 2020 at 4:24 PM. Reason : X]

4/11/2020 4:23:19 PM

Eh, that's the first article I've seen passed around about the subject. No idea who the authors are

4/11/2020 4:24:27 PM

Quote :

"2019 Egg Champ 17184 Posts user info edit post Or, and hear me out, the don't try to ram through someone with skeletons. McConnell isn't a moron, and he absolutely did not want Trump to pick this guy. There were no accusations against Gorsuch, some unhappiness about Garland, sure, but no accusations. 9/27/2018 9:10:05 AM"

Weird. Seem to have a diff view now.

4/11/2020 6:45:02 PM

Weird, a quote without context, but goddamn, going through 2 years of post history for that? Nice

Emphasis on 'then don't try to ram through someone with skeletons'. Biden has been vetted repeatedly by Obama, McCain and Romney. He's not some random dude being rammed through at breakneck speed who had never been investigated before, Kavanaugh was.

Further, if you want to go more down that thread

Quote :

"I'm 100% sure he clearly lied under oath regarding devils triangle, blacking out, etc, which to me, is instantly disqualifying."

4/11/2020 7:35:16 PM

You think I had to go through 2 years of posts to find Kavanaugh stuff? Is it a big mystery when that all happened? And Kavanaugh had been a federal judge for 15 years.

Im not sure why these Biden background checks would have found this if she hadn't come forward yet.


And Biden has lied repeatedly about his support for the Iraq War and desire to cut Medicare, is that disqualifying?

[Edited on April 11, 2020 at 8:40 PM. Reason : E]

[Edited on April 11, 2020 at 8:41 PM. Reason : Or just lying about drinking games? ]

4/11/2020 8:37:00 PM

Do you really think Federal judges get the same level of scrutiny that Vice Presidential candidates get?

4/11/2020 8:41:32 PM

Let me guess, you think Biden should drop out now so Bernie can take his place?

'THIS IS HOW BERNIE CAN STILL WIN?!?!?!?'

4/11/2020 8:43:28 PM

I'm just curious about you and Biden's campaign staff looking at credible allegations of assault much more doubtfully when he's your guy. And yes i think he should drop out, for almost anyone. I'd rather not have to vote for a sex creep.

4/11/2020 8:48:20 PM