Quote :

"List of things BobbyDigital can't wrap his mind around: 1) Options 2) Pivot Tables in Excel"

I have resigned myself to never understanding options.
On the other hand, I love pivot tables.

1/31/2012 10:33:10 AM

Gold is the money of kings, silver is the money of gentlemen.


Common stock is the money of common men.


Seriously guys. Inflation is rampant, earnings are being slashed, GDP growth is dreadful.

Don't be stubborn, go to a room that doesn't have exterior walls.

This dollar destruction is ugly already and the Japan/Europe collapse is propping it up. What happens when they break & recover and now we're the main focus?

2/1/2012 4:46:33 AM

^http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/channel/doomsday-preppers/

2/1/2012 6:16:52 AM

January, Silver is the clear winner in the global asset return race (at almost a 20% gain) with Gold in 2nd place at around +11.2%

2/1/2012 4:05:11 PM

With both well behind TTM which is up 41%. Glad I doubled down on that one.

2/1/2012 4:24:46 PM

So, let's talk about Facebook.


If the valuation numbers are anywhere near accurate ~$75-100 billion, why are they only launching with $5billion worth of stock?

Of course as with all the big IPOs, institutional investors will snatch up all of the cheap IPO priced shares and make a huge return well before it hits the general market for all of the average joes to gamble on. Especially with only a $5billion initial offering, the pickings will be slim.

Most of these are stupid, but the trend of active users may be more telling:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kymmcnicholas/2012/02/01/ten-reasons-not-to-invest-in-facebook/

Quote :

"1. A slowdown in monthly/daily active users 2011 MAUs 845 million +39% 2010 MAUs +69% 2011 DAUs 483 million +48% 2010 DAUrs +77% 2. Facebook is having to pay an increasing amount of money to acquire new users. He points to this data: 2011 Profit of $1.76 billion +71% yr/yr 2011 Marketing and Sales +132% yr/yr 2011 Costs & Expenses +107% exceeds its revenue growth rate. Black says, “This is in contrast to 2010, when its sales & marketing expense was up 60% but revenue was up 153%.”"

Possible revenue growth should involve creating a revenue stream in the mobile space, but easier said than done:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/sap/2012/02/01/facebook-ipo-filing-shows-its-still-not-fully-operating-in-the-mobile-era/

It might be worthy as a greater fool play, but I wouldn't put any money in it for any length of time.

2/2/2012 10:41:26 AM

I don't see how it's easier said than done. It's not rocket science to add mobile ads.
As far as those figures go, obviously a slowdown was bound to take place. It will probably plateau eventually. Getting that kind of growth long term just isn't possible, but it doesn't mean there still isn't a lot of profit to be had. It's a pretty straight forward business model with perhaps twitter being it's only competition at this point.

2/2/2012 11:01:48 AM

the easier said than done parts are outlined in the article, and have more to do with potential territory encroachment with apple and google.

As for profit to be had, FB will definitely continue to be a profit machine for the foreseeable future, that's not in question. The issue of growth serves to justify the lofty stock price that it will command, and I just don't see it.

Google is the ideal comparison company given that their revenue models are as similar as you can get.

Google today trades at about 20x earnings. With FB annual profits reported at $1billion, the math is easy. At $75B or $100B, the P/E is 75 and 100 respectively. That type of P/E implies ridiculous future profit growth.

2/2/2012 11:10:51 AM

So, what are you thinking, get in early, then dump shortly afterward, or wait til the stock reaches a lower P/E and then buy in?

2/2/2012 11:41:53 AM

I plan to buy as soon as it hits the market, ride it up for a quick gain and exit.

unless anyone knows how to get in on the IPO before it hits the public market without being an employee.

2/2/2012 11:55:38 AM

I believe I'm going to sit this one out.

2/2/2012 12:04:25 PM

Yeah, I've been hitting up my GS buddy hard this week.
In that scenario how do you decide when to sell?
What happens if it drops as soon as it hits the market?

2/2/2012 12:10:36 PM

Quote :

"That type of P/E implies ridiculous future profit growth."

Or a severe over-valuation?

2/2/2012 12:15:24 PM

Heh, I think that's what he was implying.

2/2/2012 12:16:17 PM

oh I thought he was on the side of the people that think its actually worth that much.


[Edited on February 2, 2012 at 12:22 PM. Reason : \/ exactly. i think he will still make money, though.]

2/2/2012 12:17:03 PM

Quote :

"I plan to buy as soon as it hits the market, ride it up for a quick gain and exit. "

The question is, how many people plan to do the exact same thing?

2/2/2012 12:21:35 PM

^^ I don't know how you could read my post and come to that conclusion. context.

^ Oh there will be a lot of that, no question.

Quote :

"In that scenario how do you decide when to sell? What happens if it drops as soon as it hits the market?"

Nothing but gut feeling drives my actions in this type of scenario... it's 100% gambling.

[Edited on February 2, 2012 at 12:22 PM. Reason : .]

[Edited on February 2, 2012 at 12:23 PM. Reason : .]

2/2/2012 12:22:11 PM

if you buy at 9:30 AM the day it IPO's and sell at 10:00 there is almost no way you won't make money.

This baby is going to pop HARD when it opens.

It'll probably open about 75% higher than it IPO's for, but I'd be surprised if it's not up 100% at some point during the initial trading week.

The pop is all about demand. And of that, there will be plenty.

Retail investors know precisely dick about PE ratios and valuation. There are going to be people scrambling to put their entire IRA's in facebook stock, trust me.

[Edited on February 2, 2012 at 1:19 PM. Reason : a]

2/2/2012 1:18:34 PM

I just got approved as an accredited investor on a secondary market.

Now if I can just come up with 12-20 million bucks, I can actually buy some pre-IPO facebook stock

2/3/2012 12:35:27 AM

/

[Edited on February 3, 2012 at 1:44 AM. Reason : /]

2/3/2012 1:28:54 AM

^^^could i change my roth ira into facebook, then let it go up and convert it back to my old roth ira?

2/3/2012 4:10:06 AM

lol @ you guys & FB

2/3/2012 10:47:45 AM

^^

^ Fuck you boobs

2/3/2012 12:08:13 PM

The fundamental problem with something as pervasive as facebook is that is brings out the idiots who’ve never invested a dollar in their life. You wouldn’t believe how many calls we’ve had in the past few weeks from investors who haven’t touched their portfolios in years. Everyone wants a piece. And unlike Apple, people don’t seem to grasp the concept of facebook as an actual entity. They see their profile, they see their buddies list, they’ve seen the movie, but they don’t understand how everything ties together. Apple makes tangible products, Google at least has enough variety in their enterprise that they average troglodyte can wrap their mind around the ways they make money. But 'facebook as a business' eludes most people, and since all they’ve ever read is how its going to be big big big, they’re essentially investing in something on which they’ve done little due diligence, which is sadly how lots of folks invest the majority of the time.

Contrast that to something like the Carlyle IPO. The firm is a gold mine, and has a 25 year track record. It’s a lot easier to put together valuation models for something like this, because there is a precedent. With facebook, your guess is as good as mine as is good as Warren Buffet’s. Nobody really knows.

2/3/2012 12:16:19 PM

I could see facebook having a huge bubble like so many mid-late 90s .com IPOs. Remember when all you had to do was have a website and investors would throw money at you even though there was no tangible product or service... yeah, good times.

Facebook has a lot of potential in terms of targeted advertising, global information gathering (like Nielsen only broader scope), and lots of other potential services they could provide based on their vast userbase, but I personally wouldn't invest in it.

2/3/2012 12:26:13 PM

It'll definitely get to bubble status, but I'm thinking it could pop and drop faster than we've seen before. Too many people getting in on day 1 looking for a quick buck.

2/3/2012 1:00:45 PM

Seems probable. It'll definitely be a wild ride for facebook stock owners the next 72 hours to 1 month.

2/3/2012 1:03:05 PM

im probably going to buy about $5k just because I think the potential for 100-200% return is there.

It just has all the makings of a momentum stock.

If it does start to take off early, valuations won't be of anyone's concern.


Timing is certainly an issue though, I'd hate to top tick on the initial pop, because it could easily go down 20-30% shortly after all the "i gotta have it!" people get in.

Come to think of it I might revise my previous strategy of buying at 9:30. That's got too much downside potential. I'm going to wait until midday to jump in. I doubt I miss any substantial runup, but could eliminate some huge immediate downside risk.

2/3/2012 1:59:55 PM

face from the mortgage deals thread

Quote :

"Rates will bump along here for a long time and then they will eventually spike dramatically. But that's a few years away."

I thought we were going to need our guns and MREs this year?

2/3/2012 6:06:21 PM

no, ive been consistent saying ~2016.

Remember I've been saying Europe/Japan fall in 2012 and we fall ~2016.

This is what's so dumb about arguing on here. I say the same thing for years and people just pretend im saying something different. I couldnt possibly be more consistent about this.

And even though Ive been consistent with my ESTIMATES, you guys will act like if it happens in 2017 instead then i'm wrong. The exact timing is impossible to predict. Even if Im off by 2 years, there are a lot of people who actually believe we aren't about to experience a major catastrophe. They are the ones who are wrong. Not the guy who understands the severity but misses the timing by a few months/years.

[Edited on February 3, 2012 at 6:50 PM. Reason : a]

2/3/2012 6:48:31 PM

Where did you say 2016 on this website?

2/3/2012 7:04:37 PM

There's a Facebook auction up today on secondary markets. Minimum transaction is $100k, which is a lot better than the block sales I've seen that are in the 8-10mil range.

I'll bet 20-30 of us could pool enough to make a buy. 5 days left, and looks like they'll go for $40-42/share.

2/3/2012 7:36:47 PM

Face is like a fortune cookie. "Something new will occur in your life". Broad statements that are not time bound will eventually prove true. That's how fortune tellers and palm readers make a living.

Quote :

"Will we see Bank of America fail/receive another bailout? Very possible, they are in the danger zone already."

BAC up 40% YTD.

[Edited on February 3, 2012 at 7:40 PM. Reason : bac]

2/3/2012 7:38:01 PM

Quote :

"When do you guys think the crisis will truly begin... January?"

message_topic.aspx?topic=606738&page=27#15147241

2/3/2012 7:41:14 PM

If you read the thread OMFG DOW 12THOU in the soap box that is probably where I give my best explanations of what my opinion is of the coming economic apocalypse.

The only real change since that thread was the operation twist and the Fed buying 91% of all long term treasuries so my prediction of those long term rates blowing out has not happened yet because they are artificially lowering it.

Again, the beach ball metaphor will work. You can hold them below the water level for a really long time. But the moment you let go they come flying above the surface.

Remember, stay long gold and don't hold it too leveraged. The downswings in gold are violent as they try to shake the monkeys from the tree. Don't be a monkey. Hang onto the effing tree.


And I could give a damn where BAC's stock price is. This has been a bad start to 2012 for them. In case you missed it, they are about to get bombed in this lawsuit, so much for that great settlement they thought they had. Also, net interest margins are imploding. Their earnings are going to be terrible.

However, the media will portray them as big earnings if their debt gets hammered again and they get to writedown their own bonds due to their shit credit. But we will be smart enough to look past that, right?


Kinda like those horrible job numbers today that the BLS and media tried to spin as a positive. Oh look unemployment rate is DOWN? Just ignore the 1.2 MILLION unemployed people that we didn't count this month! Here have another kardashian re-run!

2/4/2012 2:08:59 AM

Quote :

" Kinda like those horrible job numbers today that the BLS and media tried to spin as a positive. Oh look unemployment rate is DOWN? Just ignore the 1.2 MILLION unemployed people that we didn't count this month! Here have another kardashian re-run!"

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/no-rick-santelli-and-zero-hedge-one-million-people-did-not-drop-out-of-the-labor-force-last-month/

2/4/2012 7:46:59 AM

Face read The Big Short and now thinks he is a smart money contrarian.

2/4/2012 8:05:19 AM

I should just go back to trading on Barry's comments. He got me out in Sept 08 just before the blow up and got me back in March 09 practically on the dead bottom, then I switched to Zero Hedge and started losing money

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/whos-a-daily-facebook-user-anyone-who-clicks-like/

2/4/2012 9:14:59 AM

Anyone ever messed with selling both puts and covered calls on the same ticker?

i.e., if it holds within a fairly stable range between the strike prices, nothing happens and you collect both premiums. If it goes up sharply in value, you get called out and collect both premiums plus your capital gain. If the bottom falls out, you collect both premiums and are on the hook to buy some more of it at the lower price.

2/5/2012 6:00:02 PM

Yep, they call that one a covered straddle. I do that here and there with stocks I'm either strongly bullish about or intend as a long term hold and wouldn't mind owning a bit more of.

To keep it on the safe side I'll often make the distance to the put a bit further than the distance to the call or sell puts for 50% or less of the position I've sold calls on.

2/5/2012 6:22:10 PM

I would probably do it on an index such as SPY or a leveraged index like SSO, where I don't mind being long for a period of time and would be OK with buying more at a depressed price (in general).

I typically sell calls at the highest possible strike price, with the intent to just sell calls nearly every month (unless things get really volatile, in which case I'll start day trading) but never actually get called out. I would likewise probably sell the puts at the lowest possible strike price, again with the intent of the option not actually being exercised, even if my premium is lower...and yeah, I'd probably sell about half as many puts as calls, so I don't get sucked into buying an absurdly large (or rather, an even more absurdly large, haha) position of something like SSO.

(* I'm already pretty deep in SSO, haha)

2/5/2012 10:38:51 PM

Good lord this new money market law is scary. No way that makes it through right??

Obviously the govt is worried about another collapse if that's their focus.

Yesterday was the lowest non holiday trading volume in ten years? No wonder this thread is only two pages. Crickets

2/7/2012 9:10:28 AM

FB will be fun to watch but Im avoiding that like the plague. There will be so many people looking to buy at open and sell that the thing is going to run up and then down very very fast I would imagine. Too much risk in your buy going through at the top of that run and having it immediately drop off as other peoples sells are already in. I think as others have said probably your best bet is to wait until midday let the crazed buying and selling happen and reevaluate at that point. If the thing popped huge then had a massive drop chances are you can get in at that point and make some profits over the next few days.

2/7/2012 9:20:53 AM

ENTR

2/7/2012 4:03:12 PM

AAPL $500!

2/13/2012 10:38:03 AM

w00t. up $125/share since buying it in october.

wish i bought more than 40 now.

2/13/2012 11:40:50 AM

sold my remaining TYH today. i think my stop order on TQNT is about to hit soon.

im getting nervous at these levels... am mostly risk off for now.. wouldn't mind buying post-correction

2/14/2012 4:09:22 PM

Every investment decision is a decision of whether or not to buy AAPL.


Should I buy SPY, SPO, or should I buy AAPL? etc.

2/14/2012 7:54:42 PM

I'm Krallum and I approved this message.

2/14/2012 8:19:36 PM

Quote :

"Every investment decision is a decision of whether or not to buy AAPL. Should I buy SPY, SPO, or should I buy AAPL? etc."

buy low & sell high =/= buy at all time high

2/14/2012 11:11:57 PM