page 2 says they aint making no more of it

7/18/2006 10:23:58 AM

Quote :

"they arent making anymore water front property ^^^ so i'm sure the values will continue to rise as the demand rises"

Over the long term, yes. I wouldn't count on it in the short term though.

Did you read the article that I posted? You can't assume demand is constant. Demand has been exorbitant for the last few years with all the speculators thinking they are going to make $100k by holding a property for 6 months. I'm glad to see some of those fuckers losing their asses. Get the property back into the hands of the people that actually want to be a part of the community.

As for theDukes question...I think the next few years will be a buyers market. Buy in the next few years and you'll be glad you did the next time property prices boom.

7/18/2006 11:55:37 AM

I think this is a crucial need for making the home remodeling process more efficient. It doesn't seem like it is big enough yet but I think it will make a huge difference in favor of the home owner.
http://www.remodelauction.com

7/19/2006 1:24:57 PM

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13935220/



housing market cooling off even faster than projected.

7/19/2006 1:29:25 PM

I think Raleigh may hit a point of no sale eventually, even with all the room for development. I think the real estate slump is going to effect all areas, even though people said we could keep it out of NC.

7/19/2006 5:26:57 PM

Quote :

"I think Raleigh may hit a point of no sale eventually,"

GTFO rookie

7/19/2006 5:38:31 PM

Article:Most overpriced home markets

100 cities ranked. Despite a slowdown, some values are still out of whack. Plus: where the bargains are.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/25/real_estate/housing_market_values/index.htm?cnn=yes

Article includes a chart at the end that provides a summary of many cities.

7/27/2006 9:29:36 AM

Quote :

"BobbyDigital Miscegenator 22793 Posts user info edit post Existing Home Sales Drop in July Sales of previously owned homes plunged in July to the lowest level in 2 1/2 years and the inventory of unsold homes climbed to a new record high, fresh signs that the housing market has lost steam. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060823/economy.html?.v=9 "

8/23/2006 10:27:46 PM

also, what do you guys make of this

http://www.zillow.com

8/23/2006 10:28:19 PM

that's a site we usually use to compare what a client *thinks* their house might be worth. (most are too generous with their estimates) sometimes it's right on, sometimes it's waaay off. i'll usually compare it to the value that bank of america's site will give it and find a happy medium as a good starting point. it's usually in the ballpark, but often not up to date.

8/23/2006 10:39:44 PM

I am about to graduate in Dec. I have a job with a local boutique real estate developer and am thinking of buying a house in the Cameron Village area. Does anyone have a take on that? Also does anyone feel like the downtown condo bubble might bust in the near future? Are apartments downtown instead of condos undersupplied?

8/23/2006 11:02:57 PM

housing prices doubled in Wilmington (Delaware) in the last decade, and that bubble has yet to pop

8/23/2006 11:17:16 PM

housing prices generally double every decade in any area that is doing alright and growing a bit.

clayton is going to double in the next five years. watch out.

[Edited on August 24, 2006 at 12:57 AM. Reason : and wilm is ghetto as fuck]

8/24/2006 12:56:39 AM

^no, I mean it was sudden - I was talking with someone who said she sold her house for a $60k profit after living there for 15 years (bought $120, sold $185 I think) ... 3 years later, the people who had bought it from her sold it for about $150k profit (they sold the house for over $300, and it was "low priced" in their neighborhood) - and prices have been increasing at a "normal" rate ever since

My house in Delaware would cost at LEAST $250k, but with the acre of land, $400k easy

8/24/2006 8:04:49 AM

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BE18E95AF%2DDBFF%2D4EE4%2DACF7%2D530A3CD714D3%7D&siteid=

8/24/2006 9:57:09 AM

Apologies for this longer post, but if you want to understand the real estate market today, read this.

Below you will find a chronological listing of selected Los Angeles Times articles originally published between the years of 1987 and 1993 (inclusive) culled from their archives. The similarity among headlines from then and now is quite informative. But of course, the housing bubble of today is far, far more extreme than it was then.

1987: Housing still booming, prices increasing, inventories low.

High-End Home Sales Push Up Median Price
Dick Turpin; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Mar 15, 1987; pg. 1

Inventory of Unsold Homes Sets New Low
Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Mar 15,1987; pg. 1

Fewer Homes, High Prices as Mortgage Rates Climb
TOM FURLONG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Sep 10, 1987; pg. 1

Fixed-Mortgage Interest Rates Surge Woes Mount for Home Buyers, Brokers
TOM FURLONG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Sep 10, 1987; pg. 1

Unsold Homes Inventory Drops for Third Time
DAVID M. KINCHEN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Sep 13, 1987; pg.1

1988: People start to question the boom. Realtors assure us the boom will continue. Houses aren’t like stocks afterall.

‘88 Outlook Bright for U. S. Real Estate
Dick Turpin; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Jan 10, 1988; pg. 1

County’s Median Resale Price of Homes Reaches $179,999, Costliest in California
JOHN O’DELL; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Mar 23, 1988; pg. 5

Unlike Stocks, Home Prices Rarely Collapse
JAMES FLANIGAN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Aug 28, 1988; pg. 1

Southland Inventory of Unsold New Homes Lowest in Decade
DAVID M. KINCHEN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Sep 11, 1988; pg. 10

J. M. Peters Reports Skyrocketing Sales for Second Quarter
MICHAEL FLAGG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Sep 14, 1988; pg. 5

Limit Issue Driving Up Home Prices
Dick Turpin; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Sep 18, 1988; pg. 1

Hot Housing Sales Belie Doom Forecast
Ryon, Ruth; Los Angeles Times; Sep 25, 1988; Vol. 107, Iss. 297; 8; pg. 1

1989: Prices are very expensive; affordability an issue. Sales slow and prices drop. Mention of risky loan types.

Housing Prices in State Climb 3% in February
Furlong, Tom; Los Angeles Times; Mar 29, 1989; Vol. 108, Iss. 116; 4; pg. 1

Stock of Unsold Homes Drops Dramatically
DAVID M. KINCHEN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Apr 2, 1989; pg. 9

How First-Time Buyers CAn Get Their Piece of the Dream
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; May 21, 1989; pg. VIII1

State’s Home Sales Drop 14% Median Price Tops $200,000 for First Time
Crouch, Gregory; Los Angeles Times; May 25, 1989; pg. IV1

Sales of Existing Homes in State Fall During May
Furlong, Tom; Los Angeles Times; Jun 23, 1989;Vol. 108, Iss. 202; 4; pg. 1

Orange County Home Sales Drop by 22% in May
TOM FURLONG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Jun 23, 1989; pg. 1

Realtors Tackle New Topic: How to Handle Slow Housing Market
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Oct 1, 1989; pg. VIII1

Prices Drop, Sales Slow in State’s Housing Market
TOM FURLONG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Nov 29, 1989; pg. 1

Housing Affordability Rises Outside L.A., Orange County
Kristof, Kathy M.; Los Angeles Times; Dec 06, 1989; Vol. 109, Iss. 3; D; pg. 1

Survey Cites Four California Banks With Possibly Risky Realty Loans
JAMES BATES; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Dec 30, 1989; pg. 1

1990: Prices take a serious plunge. One article claims that housing booms are a bad thing and we should hope prices stay low. Increasing mortgage rates are blamedfor the bust. The word “recession” is mentioned. Gloom and doom.

Home Sales in Southland Plunge in ‘89
Samuels, Alisa; Los Angeles Times; Feb 8, 1990; pg. D2

The Number of Homes for Sale Sets a Record Real Estate: San Diego becomes buyer’s market, with 4,000 existing homes listed in January.
GREG JOHNSON; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Feb 13, 1990; pg. 2.A

Pray That the Housing Boom Stays Dead
Jones, Robert A; Los Angeles Times; Apr 24, 1990; pg. A3

Climbing Mortgage Rates Hurt Existing Home Sales
Samuels, Alisa; Los Angeles Times; Apr 26, 1990; Vol. 109, Iss. 144; D; pg. 3

California Is Nearing the Edge of Recession, UCLA Forecast Warns
Anderson, Harry; Los Angeles Times; Jun 29, 1990; Vol. 109, Iss. 208; D; pg. 1

California Real Estate Market Continues to Cool
TOM FURLONG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Jul 26, 1990; pg. 1

Home Sales in July at Slowest Pace in 4 1/2 Years
Furlong, Tom; Los Angeles Times; Aug 28, 1990; Vol. 109, Iss. 268; D; pg. 2

Realtors Hear Gloomy Price, Sales Forecasts
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Oct 7, 1990; pg. K1

O.C. Home Resales, Prices Fall Sharply Housing: Realtors group attributes slump in county and state figures to fears of recession.
MICHAEL FLAGG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Oct 26, 1990; pg. 5

Housing Slump in California Seen Worsening
TOM FURLONG; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Nov 21, 1990; pg. 1

1991: A “dead cat bounce”? Some folks wondering if the bust has bottomed out or not. Sales are abysmal (e.g., -42%). Other parts of the country showing some signs of recovery.

Back to Basics
Inman, Bradley; Los Angeles Times; Jan 20, 1991; pg. K1

Re-Assessing When Home Prices Fall
Boyer, Jeanne; Los Angeles Times; Feb 3, 1991; pg. K1

California Still Among Lagging Areas, Fed Says
JAMES RISEN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); May 2, 1991; pg. 1

Reading Signs–Is Market at Bottom?
Inman, Bradley; Los Angeles Times; Sep 8, 1991; pg. K1

County’s New-Home Sales Plunge 42% for Quarter *
Real estate: New figures indicate the market is sputtering again after a brief recovery. The inventory of unsold houses rose by 15%.
GREGORY CROUCH; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Oct 4, 1991; pg. 5

Home Sales Decline in California
Los Angeles Times; Nov 26, 1991; pg. D1

Home Sales Decline in California Housing: The drop in mortgage rates fails to spur sales in the state, but sales of existing homes across the country edge up in October.
Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Nov 26, 1991; pg. 1

1992: No one is buying; housing is an investment that no one will touch. Desperate political efforts being made to encourage house buying. Rock bottom prices and lower mortgage rates encourage some purchasing. The year ends with some buying. Another “dead cat bounce”? It’s not clear.

Move-Up Home Buyers Pretty Much Left Out Real estate: While Bush’s plan may boost first-time purchases, it does little to dispel caution in the other key housing sector.
JUBE SHIVER Jr.; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Jan 30, 1992; pg. 4

Home Sales in State Fell 6.2% in 1991
Shiver, Jube, Jr.; Los Angeles Times; Feb 12, 1992; D; pg. 1

Spring Thaw Real estate: The local housing market is showing signs of recovery. More realistic selling prices and reasonable interest rates have helped to spur sales.
PATRICIA WARD BIEDERMAN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Mar 26, 1992; pg. 1

Housing Starts Increase 6.4% to 2-Year High *
Economy: A strong surge in apartment building leads the way, providing economists with more evidence of a sustained recovery.
JUBE SHIVER Jr.; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Apr 18, 1992; pg. 1

June Home Sales 3.5% over May but Trail 1991 Figure
Los Angeles Times; Aug 2, 1992; pg. K1

August Housing Starts Rebound 10.4%, U.S. Says
Marshall, Matt; Los Angeles Times; Sep 23, 1992; D; pg. 1

California Home Sales Surge
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Nov 25, 1992; pg. D1

Sales of Existing Homes in California Rise Again
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Dec 24, 1992; pg. D1

8/24/2006 10:19:54 AM

(continued)

1993: It’s definitely a buyer’s market. Some people are saddened by the fact that current prices are 50% of what they were in the 1980’s. The housing bust in Southern California is clearly negatively impacting the California economy and the national economy at large. Sellers are desperate to sell (and some people taking extreme measures like putting huge “for sale” signs on their lawns for passing planes to see). Folks who waited out the boom to buy at the bottom are being handsomely rewarded for their patience. Proof-positive of the contrarian investing style — be greedy when everyone is fearful and fearful when everyone is greedy. The “slump” may be ending.

Long Southland Housing Slump Finally Ending?
DAVID W. MYERS; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Feb 10, 1993; pg. 1

Housing Market Warming Up After 3-Year Slump Real estate: Optimism returns to Southland with rising sales. Number of homes on market is down.
DAVID W. MYERS; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Feb 10, 1993; pg. 1

A sad Westside story: Home prices have declined up to 50% since late 1980s
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; May 28, 1993; D; pg. 1

Couple Put Up a Big Sign of the Real Estate Slump Housing: They write `For Sale’ in huge letters on their lawn, hoping to attract attention from passengers in planes and jets on flight path to LAX.
DICK WAGNER; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997; Apr 29, 1993; pg. 8

Home Sales in County Climb by 3% Real estate: Themarket bucks the downward trend of neighboring areas. But analysts say don’t be too optimistic.
STEPHANIE SIMON; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); May 28, 1993; pg. 1

It’s a Buyer’s Market as Peninsula Home Prices Tumble Real estate: Younger families are taking another look at an area that was once beyond their economic grasp. This could revitalize the school district.
TED JOHNSON; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997; Jun 24, 1993; pg. 3

Home Sales Up 6.3% in State, 4.6% Nationwide Real Estate: Analysts credit low interest rates and say buyers are beginning to think that prices may have bottomed out.
DAVID W. MYERS; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Jun 26, 1993; pg. 1

California’s real estate slump deepens
Miller, Greg; Los Angeles Times; Jul 27, 1993; pg. D2

Southland home values lead U.S.–Downward
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Aug 4, 1993; pg. D1

Bottom Line: Housing Market May Be Mending Real Estate: Despite a three-year slump, experts say prices are stabilizing, especially for homes under $500,000.
PATRICIA WARD BIEDERMAN; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Aug 22, 1993; pg. 1

Buyers Seek Bargains as Home Prices Keep Sliding
Real estate: La Canada Flintridge emerges as bright spot with a nearly 21% increase in sales over same period last year.
ANDREW LePAGE; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Sep 2, 1993; pg. 1

Sitting on the market: After the cash, owners adjust to the region’s housing slump
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Sep 20, 1993; D; pg. 1

State’s bargain hunters boost new-home sales to 3-year high
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Oct 1, 1993; pg. D1

Home Sales Rise Sharply in State, Nation Real estate: Size of increase surprises housing analysts. Median price in California is down 4.3% from 1992 figure.
DAVID W. MYERS; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Oct 26, 1993; pg. 2

Jump in new-home sales spurs hopes of long-awaited revival
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Nov 3, 1993; pg. D1

Drop in Southland Home Sales Slows in First 10 Months of ‘93
Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Nov 28, 1993; pg. 4

U.S. home sales hit 14-year high
Myers, David W; Los Angeles Times; Nov 30, 1993; pg. D1

Slump in O.C. Housing Market May Be Ending Real estate: November figures show a major year-to-year increase in the number of units sold. Median price still sags.
JOHN O’DELL; Los Angeles Times (pre-1997 Fulltext); Dec 21, 1993; pg. 1


-------------------------------


So, in my mind, I see 1987-1993 ==> ~ 2005-2011 deflating real estate cycle, if history repeats itself, and this one could certainly be much worse, as the gap between incomes and housing prices is much higher today than it was 20 years ago.

Naturally the impact won’t be same everywhere, the triangle being a prime example. But there will be widespread economic ramifications for the country as a whole.

8/24/2006 10:20:16 AM

^ good stuff. although i think the bust will come quicker and sharper, and the cycle won't last 6 years. i think the trench will last from now until early/mid 2008. i think boom bust cycles in general get shorter as time goes on. macroeconomically, the US is getting more price efficient.

8/24/2006 10:34:03 AM

I also agree there.. the tough part is predicting the duration, it's almost like a tennis ball effect, the first bounce is the highest/longest, and each subsequent bounce is smaller and smaller.

8/24/2006 10:42:03 AM

I'm probably going to be looking to buy a house in late '07 early '08. So, from everything i'm seeing/hearing, it looks like my timing will be about perfect for low housing prices.

Is anyone else in the same boat? Have any specific plans of action/signs to look for in determining the best time to buy in the next year or so?

8/24/2006 10:46:56 AM

prices may be lower, but you have to consider that the mortgage rate will be higher.

8/24/2006 10:47:45 AM

how adventageous is it to make sure that i go through a mortgage co. that will refinance w/o charging new origination fees ect...?

How early is too early to get preapproved?

and, fixed vs adjustable rates......is the trend of the economy the major factor to consider when making the decision.

8/24/2006 11:13:38 AM

pre-approvals only last 30 days. most lenders will hit you with a fee if you refinance in less than 1.5-2 years.

the fixed vs. arm debate is too situation dependant to get into. usually how long you are planning to stay in the home vs. the payments and what you're offered across multiple lenders is the main consideration.

[Edited on August 24, 2006 at 11:20 AM. Reason : *]

8/24/2006 11:19:07 AM

http://www.firstcitizens.com/personal_services/calculators/view_all/

its probably not very hard to find these calculators, but here are a lot in one location......i find them to be pretty helpful @ times.

[Edited on August 24, 2006 at 11:33 AM. Reason : ^thx]

8/24/2006 11:32:41 AM

I'm the tech guy for Daylight Discount Mortgage ( http://www.daylightdm.com )

Wholesale mortgage rates. Operate on LOW margin, HIGH volume. around 30% referral business (compared to 10% with most mortgage companies).

Can basically beat anyone out there on rates due to extremely low overhead (family owned, 1 location for 5+ states).

Website still isn't 100% completed due to being busy, but it's well on its way, so don't bust my balls on that. Main page is waiting on a re-design.

[Edited on August 24, 2006 at 11:42 AM. Reason : ]

8/24/2006 11:41:51 AM

Quote :

"be greedy when everyone is fearful and fearful when everyone is greedy."

8/24/2006 1:00:07 PM

Local housing market slowing

The Triangle's housing market is showing more signs of cooling.
The numbers of people contracting to buy homes declined in July for the second consecutive month, although listings were up. And Wake County, which accounts for about two-thirds of the region's housing market, reported that the number of residential building permits fell nearly 24 percent.

http://www.newsobserver.com/104/story/480175.html

8/29/2006 10:25:12 AM

This may be a stupid question... and I will do MUCH more research before I do decide to buy, but...

On a $180,000 condominium, how much would monthly mortgage payments (I suppose for 30 years) be with a decent rate from a bank these days? I am thinking about buying vs renting because I will be in the same area for the next 4 years.

I will definately do a lot more research before I continue much further on this path, but a general idea would be nice to start off.

10/18/2006 11:29:52 PM

at 6.25% for 30 years $180,000 loan would be $1,108 for just the loan payment.. With taxes and insurance, you're looking at $1,300 - $1,400 depending on tax value and insurance rate. PLUS the HOA dues which usually vary from $50 to $200 per month depending on what you get. So, all things considered, you're probably looking at a monthly expense of $1350 - $1600 depending on the additional expenses.

10/18/2006 11:34:26 PM

http://www.ncsecu.org/scripts2/calcs/HOM99.exe/ncsecu?PurchasePrice=1&DownPayment=0&CashRebate=0&TradeIn=0&ExistingLoan=0&Term=30&Interest=5.75

type all of your info here, and it'll show you your monthly payments, how much go towards principle/interest.

10/18/2006 11:37:14 PM

by taxes you mean property taxes, correct? I am trying to calculate the insurance I would need for a place like this through USAA, but a good ball park figure would be nice. Typically $150-250?

I did also forget about the HOA fee... damn that's gonna be pretty expensive. One place in the area told me it'd be $200/month.

10/18/2006 11:39:59 PM

principal
interest
taxes
insurance
HOA dues
probably PMI unless you plan on a lot of $ down.


insurance per annum is usually around the same as taxes per annum.

10/19/2006 9:24:32 AM

Quote :

"insurance per annum is usually around the same as taxes per annum."

My taxes is around 1300 a year, insurance around 500 I think.

10/19/2006 9:26:15 AM

who else on here is a broker?

10/19/2006 9:26:53 AM

my taxes are about $3200 a year, and insurance is about $1000

10/19/2006 9:29:33 AM

fucking bond market GRRR

10/19/2006 9:45:06 AM

You can usually look up the tax rates and property values on the intarwebz for whatever area you are looking to buy in.

Example:
Wake County tax rates - http://www.wakegov.com/tax/taxratesfees/default.htm
Wake county tax values - http://msweb01.co.wake.nc.us/realestate/

10/19/2006 9:57:08 AM

ah ok, good to know. I'll try to find some for jacksonville, fl

10/19/2006 12:45:35 PM

better plan to purchase a 1bed/1bath or 2bed/2bath? What do you guys think? It would only be me living there for the most part, but I thought a 2bed/2bath would have a higher chance to resell (as it caters to a larger crowd).

10/20/2006 5:26:48 PM

Go with 2 bed 2 bath

10/20/2006 5:38:56 PM

2 houses in the same neighborhood, same square footage, comparable layouts, and similar features

Centex one is a townhome with 3 bedrooms, virtually no yard, and concrete slab for a patio

Westfield one is single family with 4 bedrooms, a small fenced in yard, and decent sized wood patio

they cost exactly the same

i like Centex a lot, but is the quality that much better?

10/20/2006 10:57:53 PM

i need a big bust.

10/20/2006 11:05:50 PM

Quote :

"P Nis is quite creative, and is a pleasure to have around. - ssjamind"

sorry, had to do it just for old time's sake.

10/20/2006 11:07:12 PM

You guys know anything about KB Home?

10/20/2006 11:39:49 PM

^^

10/21/2006 12:25:39 AM

^^^^^

I own a westfield home.

I'm overall pretty satisfied. Their customer service has been top notch, addressing every issue i had with a quickness. From the perspective of build quality, it's so-so. Better than KB, but nowhere near as good as most of the Centex homes I've seen. However, I don't see my house holding up to 25 years of living. By then I'll be long gone, but I wouldn't want to live in a westfield home for the long haul.

Now with Centex, they seem to have a wide variety of build quality levels. Most of what I see is very high quality. But I've seen some lower cost neighborhoods that are just as shoddy as KB homes. So i guess it all depends on which neighborhood you're looking at.

10/21/2006 8:30:07 AM

i like how you guys talk about houses like they were cell phones

anything built after WWII is shit

10/21/2006 3:54:09 PM

I found a good deal on 43 acres in halifax county

approximately $75K in timber on the property currently

I may end up buying this

10/24/2006 10:07:43 AM

Quote :

"anything built after WWII is shit "

I agree.

10/24/2006 4:09:51 PM

The lack of asbestos and lead paint are big turn offs for me.

10/24/2006 4:25:56 PM