Always fun when the RIFIN is down 1.5% and FAS is down .5%

3/18/2009 10:40:28 AM

always fun when FAS is hitting $6.00 when i get stopped out for a loss just a few days before, only to see my current holdings in FAZ dwindle into nothingness.

I suppose i might need to increase my stop loss when working with these. But I always operate with a trailing stop of 8%.

3/18/2009 11:05:35 AM

you shouldn't do that on ETFs. should double it at least i think. the only losses i've had are from stop-lossing on ETFs

3/18/2009 11:13:48 AM

I thought long and hard this morning about grabbing some FAS at the open. I think it's going to pull back today. Regardless of that, what I've read from a couple different places is options expiration weeks tend to eek the trend out a little bit more than your average week. Ie, if you've written covered calls and don't want to get exercised you end up buying them back (putting buying pressure on the stock) which has a slight effect on all the other participants in the market. It would work in the other direction too. Suffice to say, I'm not really sure where we end up today, but I think we finish the week strong. If we get some sort of big pullback today and it's still down but flattening in the 2-3pm time frame, I'm going to go in on some FAS.

3/18/2009 11:17:47 AM

I am up 63% on C.

3/18/2009 12:14:40 PM

My gut says to take a long position on FAZ at 28.5, but I'm not prepared to do it.


FUCK

Of all god damn days I decide to turn CNBC off and take a day off from trading. I'm sitting here in my head thinking, holy shit, that is a perfect setup for a scalp at 28. FAZ already back to 30.

FUCK

I think this FOMC move is unprecedented.

[Edited on March 18, 2009 at 2:28 PM. Reason : .]

3/18/2009 2:23:03 PM

Quote :

"how about shorting Treasuries? I bought some TBT a last week under 44.50 and it's up over 48 now"

I knew I should've sold this yesterday

3/18/2009 2:38:22 PM

You just have to stay the hell away from the Fed on days like this if you can be affected.

3/18/2009 2:45:31 PM

FAZ at $27

can't decide what to do. i haven't held a stock in a week

[Edited on March 18, 2009 at 2:52 PM. Reason : ]

3/18/2009 2:52:29 PM

I think it's a good play for now. You'll be able to scalp it if you get nervous. I'm looking for it to pull back just a little bit more and I'm going to start loading up the April calls.

3/18/2009 3:03:01 PM

man this is killing me inside. i made some with my initial positions in FAS and then jumped out only to buy back in later and then sold it for a loss and held onto FAZ. bad move on my part. overall i lost more than i gained, which is really upsetting. i should have stuck to my gut on this one.

faz will hit 18 btw

3/18/2009 3:16:35 PM

Don't feel bad...the March 4 covered calls I sold for .35 are now trading at 3.15.

That's correct, I have left about 900% on the table with that move.

I nearly bought them back at .60 but thought...nahhh, there is no way this rally that everyone thought was going to materialize (myself included) has real legs.

The single contract of March 50 FAZ puts I bought for 3.30 and sold for 3.80 are currently trading at 23.90.

Another 700% on the table.

Had I rode all of that out, my account would have gone from around 3k to about 10k if we exclude the covered call writing (1000*7 of FAS and 2300 from the FAZ puts).

Hurts

[Edited on March 18, 2009 at 3:26 PM. Reason : ]

3/18/2009 3:25:39 PM

wanted to grab some faz as a scalp here ... but by the time I logged in, it moved to 30 ...

Damn, cant make up my mind.

3/18/2009 3:37:12 PM

This is a temporary late day profit taking pullback. This won't be a 1/2 day pop from the treasury news. Grab a little FAS if you want to scalp.


EDIT
You'd be up about 250 on 1000 shares if you took this advice.

EDIT

Make that 450


[Edited on March 18, 2009 at 3:54 PM. Reason : .]

3/18/2009 3:39:23 PM

yeah, faz is definitely looking week here on the short term ... not a bad bounce that it took ... but sellers are in control on it.

3/18/2009 3:51:28 PM

Bleh.

Should have listened to my own advice. Up .50 since I made that call.

3/18/2009 3:55:29 PM

Quote :

"I've been monitoring TBT for awhile. I'm scared it's too vulnerable to federal reserve manipulation though.... I don't want to be on the wrong side of the Fed in a trade... 3/1/2009 12:18:32 PM"

Zing!

3/18/2009 6:11:42 PM

Holy crap I wish I had made time for th market today - FAS at 7

Damn!

I hope some of you heeded my advice not to short the market yet...

Its the quick and the dead in this marketplace. Note: the average bear market rally lasts 40 days

3/18/2009 9:03:25 PM

I'm going to be tempted to scale into FAZ calls but I have no idea how much pop this new round of QE is going to have on the financials. There could be some expectation that eased rates will spur refinancing which would definitely put upward pressure on the stock prices. Gonna be bizarre if FAS crosses back above FAZ somewhere in the 11/12 range.

3/18/2009 9:16:20 PM

CAT stock is waaay down, closed at 27.47 today

i need to snap some of it up with a quickness.. but i want it for less than 25.. should have done it a few days ago

3/18/2009 11:08:25 PM

^^^^yeah i thought about that response today. the fed can't hold it down forever though

3/18/2009 11:32:24 PM

bought into fas at 5.0 3 days ago but did it with unsettled funds so i couldnt sell it until open of market today! trying to decide what i should set the sell point for. I'm thinking 7.4 and then using some of the cash chillin in my account to pick up some faz when it hits under 24

3/19/2009 6:50:48 AM

rofl, from the FAZ board

Quote :

"The difference between losing money in stocks and 3X leveraged ETF's is the size of the gaping a$$ pounding and speed at which it pounds. With the 3X leveraged ETF, you can go to the bathroom and take a dump, come back and be down 10% from the time the turtle started to poke out its head. There's you simple difference, my friend. "

3/19/2009 7:11:54 AM

^^don't buy FAZ until after the next wave of market to market news.

secondly, does anyone know when that news is set to come?

I almost bought some C at close yesterday, i wish i had. its up 14% already.

i assume it'll come down a lot and when it does i'll grab it.

[Edited on March 19, 2009 at 9:26 AM. Reason : watch me get fucked on buying at the high when it doesn't come down and i decide to pull the trigger]

3/19/2009 9:25:42 AM

DAMN! I almost wanted to get into FAZ this morning at 24 up 20% already

3/19/2009 10:12:30 AM

20%?

3/19/2009 10:13:46 AM

well it was, bounced past 28.8

3/19/2009 10:14:46 AM

of course it did, the premarket trading was unsustainable, especially after a day such as yesterday. hell, we could even close below yesterdays figures in FAS, as it took a relatively steep climb. but i wouldn't worry about it. i'm a pretty big bear and i think this rally has a little longer to go. probably until when revenues are posted by BAC/C. if they post a profit, which could hinge on market to market changes should they take place between now and then, then you can expect the rally to continue for a while. however, if they don't post a profit, so help us all.

my reasoning says there is no way they'll post a profit but something in my gut tells me the books will show that they do have one. doing all that talk and then not performing would only set them up for the fall heavy. ultimately they have to show one.

3/19/2009 10:22:03 AM

I can't remember where I read it, but I think I've seen in a couple different places that 805/810 is a fibonacci number off the recent low. If it bumps into it today and tomorrow and fails to break it with much conviction, that will be my sign to move into FAZ.

Excellent, i was looking to get in on a pull back and my internet connection takes a dump on me.

6.55 would have been perfect.

[Edited on March 19, 2009 at 10:43 AM. Reason : .]

3/19/2009 10:27:00 AM

^before that it was 770. i think it was monday we tapped it a few times and then we didn't break it and crashed that afternoon, but tuesday we were right back up. i'd pay attention to the news as a whole right now and get a feel for what people are going to think is going to happen, rather than focus on the resistance lines. its clearly toying with those lines today, but i think ultimately they'll break. if not today then tomorrow.

in all honesty i expect a down day

[Edited on March 19, 2009 at 10:48 AM. Reason : . ]

3/19/2009 10:43:09 AM

Yeah, 770 was the 38% retracement, 802 is the 50%, 834 is the 62% line. I think for today and tomorrow as the S&P touches 802 it would be fine to buy some FAZ and set a tight stop in the event it breaks above 802 and starts using it for support. If it looks like support will hold then you can switch back to FAS for a day or so.

If it really gets above 802 and starts trying to make it's way back up, I am going to be going in fairly large (10-15k) in my IRA on some FAZ calls.

Quote :

"in all honesty i expect a down day"

Filled gaps that stay filled usually set the trend. The open gap was filled but then "unfilled" which tends to have bullish implications (i think).

[Edited on March 19, 2009 at 10:51 AM. Reason : .]

3/19/2009 10:50:13 AM

Sold more than half my portfolio, money wise, this morning freeing up quite a bit of cash to wait and watch and see if we head back down. Its been almost a year since I have started investing and I finally feel comfortable enough to stop buying 100 shares here and there of different companies. Time to go big or go home and start buying 1000+ shares of things and actually being able to make some money off a quick 10 cent move instead of having to wait for a dollar rise just to make any decent money.

3/19/2009 10:52:14 AM

FAS in a head & shoulders pattern on a 5-day chart. does that mean it gets a 5-handle within a few days? you guess is as good as mine.

that shit is confusing -

alright lady fine, fine, you are not a whore. but you are wearing a whore's uniform, i'll tell you that shit right now.. Dave Chappelle

3/19/2009 11:03:43 AM

this is going to be one of those days where i should just not look at it until the very end of the day.

3/19/2009 11:18:53 AM

Looks like the intraday uptrend was cracked for now. If it makes a lower high, I'd wait for it turn and then get long for a scalp. Might take until after lunch for that to happen.

On the 5 minute chart, the 20ema has just crossed under the 50sma. On the 15, the 50sma support level is still below. So I'd look for that point to get long FAS barring any sort of retaking of the 20ema on the 5 minute chart.

Yup, confirmed downtrend. I see support at around 6.20 on the 15minute chart.

[Edited on March 19, 2009 at 11:27 AM. Reason : .]

[Edited on March 19, 2009 at 11:31 AM. Reason : .]

3/19/2009 11:21:30 AM

i wish i understood all that. you saying to buy at 6.20 as it will go back up?

3/19/2009 11:36:32 AM

^^our charts don't show the same thing. on my 15min chart the e20 is just now about to cross the sma20 but is no where near crossing the sma50.

sma 50 at 5.82, ema 20 at 6.38 and sma20 at 6.53 right now at 11:47 according to my 15.

3/19/2009 11:47:51 AM

It's technical analysis. There is a massive cottage industry built on trading around the techincals. Moving averages, fibonacci numbers, volume. My take is, everyone knows every else will do it with some variation and everyone is feeling everyone else out trying to figure which awkward way they are going to dance next.

So, you put up all the giving indicators to try and frame points for entry and exit.

If you plot FAS with 5 minute bars you'll see at the moment that the 20ema (exponential moving average) has crossed under the 50sma (simple moving average). This is bearish in nature on a 5 minute time frame. Now that this has happened, we'd look for it to use the 20ema as resistance.

The 15 minute chart gives a different picture with the stock trading between the 20ema and the 50sma. I literally just looked and on that chart it is just now touching the 50 (well, it's right at 6.05). This would be a decent change to jump in expecting it to bounce off the 50sma. Set a tight stop just below here in case it moves against you. Grab it here and set your stop at 5.95).

Volume is also down compared to the first hour on this pullback. This doesn't give us a ton of info other than the selling has been steady and orderly.

I haven't mentioned candlestick analysis yet, which brings in additional points of reference. At the moment, if we are able to push back to the 6.25 area, then the 15 minute chart will have formed a shooting star doji at the bottom of this downtrend, a bullish signal. Otherwise it's just a basic selling pressure candlestick meaning a continuation of the downtrend and we begin to look for support at other levels. On the 5 minute chart this doji was formed, however, there isn't much volume coming in here. Volume here would mean buyers entering in and look for it to turn (this is also where you'd use your MACD or Stochastic charts to help in this regards, my TA skill hasn't included that yet).




[Edited on March 19, 2009 at 11:56 AM. Reason : .]

3/19/2009 11:48:10 AM

our charts do not show the same thing at all, the numbers don't even match up.

which charts are you using?

3/19/2009 12:00:58 PM

The shooting star was formed, and if you enterred with 1000 shares at 6.05, your 5.95 wouldn't have triggered and you could have already exited with 250-300 in profit.

At this point, we're looking at the 5 and 15 still for overhead resistance points. On the 15 it's about 6.75 and on the 5 it's about 6.60. On the 1 it is about 6.40.

You could take profit now or wait and see if it gets past the 1.

And so on and so forth.

I found this site last week and I'm loving it

http://www.bestfreecharts.com/

The 1
http://www.bestfreecharts.com?emailChartID=4325949f-6b08-4bf6-ab75-c338ceebdf47
The 5
http://www.bestfreecharts.com?emailChartID=fd2b26a8-5553-4d01-9148-ebb84af43d0b
The 15
http://www.bestfreecharts.com?emailChartID=892c2871-19a8-4431-84ff-ae264651963e



[Edited on March 19, 2009 at 12:03 PM. Reason : eh, I thought those might be "screenshots", but I'm not so sure they are]

3/19/2009 12:01:01 PM

Wants a microsoft plugin? Screw that.


In other news, the government is taking money from their front pocket and putting it in their back pocket.

3/19/2009 12:03:27 PM

Just install Silverlight and view the charts. It appears to be a flash clone.

3/19/2009 12:05:47 PM

i use the same program and have been for a while.

so i can't understand why we don't see the same stuff.

Q1. what indicators do you have on your screen

Q2. you have an exponential MA of 20 and a simple 50 and 20, correct? Our screens should show the same thing at the same times but they do not.

3/19/2009 12:08:28 PM

I apologize, I thought my 20 was set to exponential but it was set to simple (I just changed it).

It should be standard bollinger bands, 20ema, 50sma with volume below and standard MACD

It touched the 50sma on the 15 again and rebounded off

[Edited on March 19, 2009 at 12:26 PM. Reason : .]

3/19/2009 12:10:53 PM

any of you around should check this out:

http://www.ncsu.edu/featured-stories/engaging-society/mar-2009/gartman-millennium/index.php

3/19/2009 12:41:05 PM

The 15 minute looks rounded reversal ish.

If it were to get above the 20 (which is at about 6.50) then I'd look for a nice run back towards 7.

3/19/2009 12:46:24 PM

we'll close just below the close of yesterday.

3/19/2009 12:47:00 PM

6.68 is overhead 50sma resistance on the 5 minute. This is the next target.

3/19/2009 12:48:36 PM

lets move this thread a little and discuss some of the lengthier short term prospects.


personally i say they're on the up side, even though i'm overall bearish.

A few factors:

Market to Market adjustments will put some faith into people and those conversations aren't due until mid april. i think financials will at least gradually climb between now and then. I don't really see any

There are people out there who think that BAC and C will post a profit, just as there are those out there who suspect they will post a loss. since they big banks have stated they will, i feel as if they're going to have to deliver. i'm not saying it'll be clean accounting but they will likely have to deliver or see their stocks fall in a few short days to where they were prior to. Does anyone suspect the post of a loss is likely?

Its a bear market rally, this i think is pretty much agreeable to all. These things typically last a little over a month a rapid initial gain with some slower gains overall. mostly the result of profit taking, i assume. this will continue to happen so the random down day or two in a row should be seen neither as an aberration or nor a sign of the turn. No one is going to bet heavy on the down side with all this news coming out.


thoughts? contributions? contingencies?


my goal here is for us to collectively put our heads together and come up with a medium term plan instead rather than idly predicting day by day moves only to be surprised by any random assortment of things.

3/19/2009 1:09:22 PM

^ will read and address later...

reloaded some FAS @ 5.94

also picked up some FSLR



[Edited on March 19, 2009 at 3:59 PM. Reason : ]

3/19/2009 3:45:15 PM