Not sure if this has been posted on here... 538 has a college football predictions chart that's fun to play around with.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Says we have an 89% shot of making the playoffs if we win out but only have a 4% chance of doing so.

And yeah, I think most of us realize we won't be favored against ND or Clemson, but what else are we gonna talk about on a bye week?

10/19/2017 10:03:09 AM

Just a hunch, but knowing how things usually go for ND, I think a loss for them this weekend only helps us. Why? Well, when things crash for them, they really crash. They could lose 3 straight. They'll have lost the chance to play for the playoff, and then what do they get? Some bowl they don't care about. Plus, given the most likely scenarios, it knocks them below our bowl standing for sure if we can beat them and only lose to Clemson. Might put us in line for a New Year's 6 at large bid if we only lose to Clemson.

10/19/2017 1:07:02 PM

Quote :

"I also think a lot of these teams will continue to lose."

yeah. we (CFB fans) do this every year where halfway through the season we realize there's a chance for 2 undefeateds and 7 one loss teams and we freak out about playoff scenarios (or BCS back in the day) but most likely this shit will sort itself out in the end and it'll all be pretty straightforward.

Quote :

"this will be a moot issue, i guarantee it"

probably. but we're 6-1, in the driver's seat for the division and ranked 16th. the speculation is far fetched but fun. let's enjoy being nationally relevant even if it's fleeting

Quote :

"And yeah, I think most of us realize we won't be favored against ND or Clemson, but what else are we gonna talk about on a bye week?"

yeah, but i don't think we'll be big underdogs to them. might even possibly be favored if it were at home. i'd think it will be less than a TD line. but yeah, obviously it won't be easy

[Edited on October 19, 2017 at 1:41 PM. Reason : d]

10/19/2017 1:38:59 PM

Yeah 9-3 seems a lot more likely than 11-1 but lets not act like a 9-3 season wouldnt be spectacular based on our history. The NC State fan in my still worries we are gonna go 7-5 until we win our 8th game haha

10/19/2017 1:49:41 PM

It's worth noting that our two all-americans (chubb and samuels) were both 3-Stars coming out of high school.

10/19/2017 2:26:03 PM

i'm definitely not trying to be a dick. but tbh that's not that worth noting. simply by sheer volume, there are way more 3* recruits than 5*. and obviously some of those 3* recruits will be very good and will outperform that ranking. and some of the 5* recruits will under-perform their ranking. it's great that chubb and samuels are tearing shit up and getting recognized for it. and the staff deserves some credit for that as well. i know it's a popular talking point to shit on recruiting rankings when a 5* busts or a 2* turns into an all-american. but generally, they get it right.

10/19/2017 3:09:43 PM

Quote :

"i'm definitely not trying to be a dick."

This is kinda like saying i dont want to sound racist butttttt.

[Edited on October 19, 2017 at 3:27 PM. Reason : ddsf]

10/19/2017 3:26:48 PM

Samuels was a 3* because he didn't "fit a position" and he also committed to us REALLY early at a camp.

Chubb was a 3* because as a JR he played OLB and converted to DE his SR year and was just learning a new position.

FSU has more 4* and up players at QB and RB on their roster than our entire team. Hopefully recruiting picks up. I think our current staff has an eye for talent, but let's not act like we didn't have some 4* disappointments as well(Frasier obviously, and I really expected McGirt to be better than he has been).

10/19/2017 3:31:58 PM

^^^yeah, I'm well aware of all that, especially in football.

I just think it's pretty neat that we have not just one, but two all-americans, and they both just happened to be 3-stars.

10/19/2017 3:36:09 PM

yeah it's (hopefully) a sign of talent evaluation and player development.

hopefully a season like this one can give us a nice recruiting boost. i know recruiting is well underway for this 2018 class, so we may not see our results pay many dividends this class...although there are certainly guys we're still recruiting that are 4* and our season could swing the tide in our favor. but you'd have to think if we continue winning, stay ranked, and have a really strong season then it should really show up in the 2019 class.

that's kinda how you have to build a program when you're a program like us. it's hard to have strong recruiting classes while being mediocre and fairly un-noteworthy on the field. but if you can have a deep, veteran team that breaks through with a strong season and then parlay that success into better recruiting results...hopefully you build back that depth with even more talent and gain a lot of momentum in recruiting.

10/19/2017 4:32:01 PM

^ All of this is what Debbie Yow looks for in hiring coaches. That they come into a place and over achieve through things like quality player development.

Doeren fired the OC, Ive heard, partly because of the lack of development with Brissett.

Thats how you get NC State out of the middle of the pack. You have to over achieve. You need to develop players better than others. Identify the 3* kid with a chip on his shoulder. (Harmon)

10/19/2017 4:57:13 PM

Its more about getting guys who will fit/develop well in your system. Football rankings mean a lot less because you have a lot more players, less AAU type opportunities, and can recruit guys to do one particular thing. Also, a football player's performance at any level is so dependent on their teammate's performance, their opponent's performance and their system.

A guy like Danny woodhead works well in an offense like the chargers, and a guy like Peterson doesn't work well in a Saints offense but then works in A cardinal type offense. I'm using NFL guys as examples because they are well publicized but this type of thing happens a lot more in college.

NC State can't try and be a pro-style team and do what the big programs do because that would force us to compete directly with them. We need to have a strange system where we can recruit guys who fit that system well and thats why I always so DD as a great opportunity.

Theres an abundance of talent out there that can shine in our system but if they aren't the pro-style mold, then they won't be 5 star recruits. For example, Jim Grobe won the ACC by recruiting a bunch of guys who too small to be ranked high to fill key positions. Rivers came here because we weren't going to make him play tight end.

10/19/2017 7:02:30 PM

Our system is not that strange. It's not like we're running the air raid or triple option.

10/19/2017 7:44:02 PM

Maybe we should run the triple air raid option

10/19/2017 10:13:08 PM

That sounds like something out of NFL Blitz

and I love it

10/19/2017 10:19:28 PM

you say that as a joke but thats kinda what we do if you think about how our passing game works

10/19/2017 10:20:41 PM

I'd argue the default offense in college right now is the spread, not the pro-style offense anymore.

Just speaking about the ACC, the only teams I think (only watch UNC and NC State games) line up primarily under center are BC, FSU, and Pitt. GT runs the triple option as well, but that leaves almost 2/3rds of the ACC running some form of the spread.

That being said, "spread" is too broad anymore. There's air raid (Syracuse), pre-snap option (UNC), Lamar Jackson (Louisville), ect.

We're currently running something similar to FSU's multi-formation offense (take snaps from under center, pistol, and shotgun) but it's designed to get our playmakers in space (Jaysam, Hines, Harmon, ect.). I've really enjoyed watching Drinkwitz's offense this season and if he stays next year I'd be excited to see how it changes with Jaysam gone.

Unrelated notes,
1. Didn't realize Drinkwitz is in his early 30's. Crazy.
2. I do think we've been so fortunate to have as few injuries this far into the season, but maybe that's because I'm comparing to UNC, who has like 15 players out for the season.

10/20/2017 8:40:00 AM

Yeah, I just saw the long list of UNC-CH players who are injured. The good news is that it will give those players more time to focus on their AF-AM classes.

10/20/2017 8:43:37 AM

Sooo who do we need to root for today for us to move up in the rankings?

Somebody give me a break down: https://www.google.com/search?q=college+football+schedule&rlz=1CDGOYI_enUS714US714&oq=college+footba&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j0l2j69i57.3784j0j4&hl=en-US&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

10/21/2017 10:53:18 AM

You generally want teams ahead of you to lose.

10/21/2017 10:55:29 AM

^genius

10/21/2017 11:20:24 AM

But what about teams like Michigan at 19 playing Penn State #2 Mr. Smarty Pants?

Lots of games where it isn't so cut and dry.

Do we want USC to beat Notre Dam?

Do we want Penn state to go ahead and lose a game to Michigan, or will that make Michigan a playoff contender?

I want some analysis, preferably from Face, whose opinion I hold most dear on this site.

10/21/2017 11:22:02 AM

VT, Miami, ND, Michigan

10/21/2017 11:37:43 AM

^Thank you.

10/21/2017 11:39:11 AM

Not because we'll move up this week, but for the rest of the season

10/21/2017 11:40:42 AM

^^^

those are the teams we want to win.


dont listen to these defeatist assholes who are assuming we will lose out. you should always want every team on our non division schedule to win all of their other games.

10/21/2017 12:33:10 PM

Also Maryland, Texas, KState. Those might move us up this week and be good in general

[Edited on October 21, 2017 at 12:39 PM. Reason : Yes. Rooting for these to win]

10/21/2017 12:39:18 PM

rooting for muh vols as well

10/21/2017 12:51:19 PM

Probably actually be better if Penn St wins out, but I can't root for James Franklin so..

10/21/2017 1:13:09 PM

Why would it be better for Penn State to win out? To remove Michigan from playoff equation?

10/21/2017 1:44:25 PM

big10 is probably in the playoff anyway so might as well have psu win it so they dont sneak in as a 1 loss team
same concern with alabama if they lose to uga. at this point, the only way we get left out is if one of those confeerences get 2 teams.

10/21/2017 1:50:38 PM

None of the big ten teams has a quality win. The only ones they'll have will be from beating each other, so it doesn't really matter who wins those.

10/21/2017 1:58:05 PM

Dumb debate. After the past two seasons, a 1 loss ACC champion makes the playoff. But way too early to consider that.

10/21/2017 2:24:30 PM

Yeah probably. But the ACC teams that made it were preseason #1, preseason #12, and preseason #2. So they didn't have far to move into the top 4. Obviously it's too early and it'll probably still be Clemson

10/21/2017 2:49:28 PM

there aren't preseason CFP polls

10/21/2017 3:03:30 PM

I feel this coming:

- loss to ND, not a blowout, but not exactly a last second loss.
- beat Clempson
- lose to BC for the traditional WTF loss
- lose to Wake, bc it's W-S and we're good at losing there
- beat UNC to win the Atlantic
- lose to Miami to send them to the Playoffs
- at 4 losses, we go to the TaxSlayer Bowl against Florida

Hey, I'll just be happy to get a Division Champs shirt.

[Edited on October 22, 2017 at 3:16 PM. Reason : H]

10/22/2017 3:16:18 PM

Florida ain't bowlin

10/22/2017 3:20:22 PM

If we don't win out, I hope we play UCF or USF in the bowl.

10/22/2017 7:08:46 PM

#14 AP / #15 Coaches

10/22/2017 9:26:55 PM

^^ no AAC

I'd rather go to the Sun and play a PAC 12 team, since we've never done that in my memory. I can't remember an opponent we've played further west than Texas.

Edit: ok, it was Arizona in the 1989 Copper Bowl.

[Edited on October 23, 2017 at 8:08 AM. Reason : H]

10/23/2017 8:06:20 AM

It's amazing to think that beating Clemson would make our magic number just 1 to win the division.

10/25/2017 12:04:55 PM

We played new Mexico in 02 and Texas tech in 02 and 03

[Edited on October 25, 2017 at 12:19 PM. Reason : But we don't really recruit west of Louisiana so.....]

10/25/2017 12:18:15 PM

Yes TEXAS TECH is west of the state of TEXAS.

(I missed NM tho, thanks)

Still no Pac 10/12 since 1989.

[Edited on October 25, 2017 at 12:28 PM. Reason : B]

10/25/2017 12:28:17 PM

Quote :

"So please shut up with this "but if we beat Clemson they'll have 2 losses so it won't be a good win anymore" crap."

I don't think I've seen anyone say that. FSU, Syracuse, and LVille were all great wins and Clemson would be the best win of the season, better than if we beat ND. I agree it's a moot point because no way we're getting through NC, Clemson, AND the top Coastal team.

I'm just saying that when the 3 teams in the conference with the highest expectations going into the season have all failed to reach, then whoever does win won't receive the kind of respect they deserve. Other than an undefeated Miami or a one-loss Clemson, I don't see any other team being in the top-4. Especially if Bama, Penn State, and TCU are all undefeated and Georgia and Wisconsin both only have 1 loss, each loss coming against the top-2 teams. I think Georgia and Wisconsin are both overrated but it's not about what we think, it's about what the selection committee will think.

10/25/2017 5:46:08 PM

^did you just come here to resurrect that week old argument?

Quote :

"Yes TEXAS TECH is west of the state of TEXAS. "

Ah thought you meant west of UT

10/25/2017 6:08:32 PM

Quote :

"Especially if Bama, Penn State, and TCU are all undefeated and Georgia and Wisconsin both only have 1 loss, each loss coming against the top-2 teams. "

This chance of this scenario happening is mind bogglingly rare. Still, our resume as a 1 loss conference champion with wins over ND and Clemson (not counting FSU and Louisville) would be orders of magnitude better than a 1 loss Wisconsin team, whose best (only good) win in this case would be Michigan. Georgia beat ND early in the season by a point and plays Auburn late. Again, only 2 quality wins and not a conference champion. Us winning out would mean another win over a highly ranked UM/VT team, so in this crazy scenario, we would have by far the best resume to fill the 4th slot.

Basically, if by the small chance we run the table, there is a 0% chance of getting left out of the CFP.

10/25/2017 6:20:21 PM

playing nd allows us to control our own destiny. the more interesting scenario woyld be 3 unbeatens with clemson and notre dame running the table and even more interesting if alabama was the 1 loss sec runner up.

doomsday scenario

10/25/2017 6:27:28 PM

^ this is Earl right?

10/25/2017 6:45:59 PM

Georgia and Wisconsin's conference championship games are play-in games to the CFP

10/25/2017 11:04:50 PM

Yeah but if they win, they blowup the system.

10/26/2017 3:11:21 AM