lame

5/30/2012 8:22:49 PM

Katrina Watch, 2012

5/30/2012 8:23:50 PM

so they've got the #1 and #10? how lovely for them


faggots

5/30/2012 8:23:54 PM

fuck new orleans

fuck the bobcats too

5/30/2012 8:25:59 PM

that was fucking rigged. owner wasn't even surprised. I'm surprised he didn't accidently say "well we had negotiated the #1 pick into the terms of the sale. I tried to get them to make the other pick #2, but the commissioners office thought that might be too obvious"

5/30/2012 8:26:55 PM

"On second thought Mr. Benson, we as a league have decided not to sell you the franchise after all."

5/30/2012 8:27:11 PM

now the real question is how does Harrison Barnes feel about being the 2nd overall pick?

5/30/2012 8:27:16 PM

Any scenario where we can trade down?

5/30/2012 8:28:52 PM

we'll probably trade the 2nd overall pick for the 10th pick and Emeka Okafor

5/30/2012 8:29:35 PM

Eddy Curry is gettable, in case they want a replacement for Diop. He will even let you give him an absurd contract and a Bojangles card.

5/30/2012 8:37:27 PM

If you told me 15 years ago that the Hornets would draft Chris Paul and Anthony Davis one pick ahead of some douchebag team named the Bobcats, I'd have a huge fucking smile on my face.

Now,

5/30/2012 8:38:03 PM

I definitely don't want to trade down. I don't like anyone else in the top 7-8. I think you can get good value in the 10-20 range this year with all the depth out there but I think Davis and MKG are far ahead of the other guys right now.

If we re-sign Derrick Brown (we should he was productive and he'll be cheap) we have a DECENT young frontcourt between Brown, MKG, and Biyombo.

We've got a lot of bad salaries that come off the books after this coming season so just don't blow any cap space on middling guys. Go ahead and play the young guys all season and let them develop. Then we should add another top 5 pick next year in a class that likely includes Shabazz Muhammad, Nerlens Noel, Cody Zeller, and a few other guys who emerge over the year.

Combine our three young frontcourt guys with one of those draft studs and ~$30 million in cap space and we could have a nice young roster in two years. There's a lot of really good young talent around the league right now and a lot of teams have clogged their books pretty good with overpriced veterans. Being that we're probably entering a global recession in the next 6-12 months I don't anticipate the salary cap really growing either to help their situation.

It sucks to strike out on an elite big man but SF isn't that easy of a position to fill with a stud in the NBA either.

5/30/2012 8:41:04 PM

At the very least, my transformation towards full fledged Bobcat supporter is complete. Let's win 20 games next year and call it progress.

5/30/2012 8:42:59 PM

Okafor and Felton will be retired before we make the playoffs again

5/30/2012 8:44:39 PM

At least people got their 86 dollar tickets. I'm sure it'll be a sellout every night.

5/30/2012 8:56:16 PM

I was dreaming about the Davis / Biyambo block party, but having MKG lead the offense in transition will be fun to watch. Now they need an up-tempo offensive coach to get the team to run the opposition to death, a SG who can shoot, and another big man.

5/30/2012 9:03:49 PM

Gentlemen, you're assuming MKG. This is the Bobcats. Cho will have input, but Jordan has final say.

5/30/2012 9:06:34 PM

Jordan aka Rachel Phelps...am I right?

5/30/2012 9:08:23 PM

On this team, Taylor would never make it to first.

5/30/2012 9:11:05 PM

I'd hate to see MKG squander his talent in Charlotte. As long as the Bobcats have Michael 'degenerate gambler, absentee father and all around horrible human' Jordan as the decision maker, they are going to suck donkey cock

5/30/2012 9:11:52 PM

Good point pee drankin. And as long as the Clippers have that racist, womanizing asshole kike Donald Sterling in charge, they'll never make the playoffs.

5/30/2012 9:21:01 PM

No way this wasn't rigged to give the new Hornets owner a gift for taking the team off the NBA's hands.

5/30/2012 10:33:59 PM

Quote :

""I won a national championship in New Orleans so why not win another won in New Orleans?" said Davis"

5/30/2012 11:49:21 PM

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--nba-s-problematic-ownership-of-hornets-opens-door-to-rigged-talk-over-draft-lottery-20120531.html

5/31/2012 1:07:28 AM

[Warning] Long post, meant for NBA draftniks and Bobcats fans. [/Warning]

I'm trying not to get too depressed about losing the #1 pick. So just for comparison's sake here are some statistics and analysis of how Michael Kidd Gilchrist and the other potential top 5 draft picks stack up next to Anthony Davis.

It's important to realize these stats are raw data and are NOT adjusted for position. Obviously Guards should have a higher Ast% than Centers, while Forwards should have a higher Reb% than Guards so I've coded the stats to make them more meaningful for comparisons between positions.

I've bolded stats/attributes that are very impressive for a potential draftee based on his projected NBA position. I've italicized stats that are a concern or in a few cases a red flag for a potential draftee at his projected NBA position. Assume that anything I haven't altered is considered solid but not spectacular numbers for a lottery pick caliber player at his projected NBA position. I've added 'underline' for elite production and '!!!!!' exclamation marks for off the charts production in a given category for his position.

Age listed reflects how old the player will be when his first NBA season begins (rounded to nearest half year). The age of a draftee is very important in measuring a prospect's potential upside. It's well documented that NBA players on average improve rapidly from age 18-23, reach their peak overall ability at age ~25 and maintain this level until age ~28 at which point they begin to decline rapidly*. Statistically, the closer a player is to age 23 when he enters the NBA the less improvement you can expect from him in subsequent seasons.

Davis: PF/C 6'10, 220, 19.5 yrs: O-rating 133.5!!!!!, 65.4% TS!!!!, 11.5% O-Reb, 23.9% D-Reb, 7.5% Ast Rate, 9.9% TO, 13.8% Blk!!!!, 2.5% Stl, 60.2% FT Rate**, .653 2PT/.150 3PT/.709 FT

MKG: SF/PF 6'7, 232, 19 yrs: O-rating 111.4, 57% TS, 10.2 O-Reb, 16.1% DReb, 10.8% Ast Rate, 19.5% TO Rate, 2.8% Blk, 1.9% Stl, 58.9% FT Rate** .535 2PT/.255 3Pt/ .745 FT

T-Rob: PF 6'9, 237, 21.5yrs: O-rating 106.4, 54.9% TS, 11.2% O-Reb, 30.5% D-Reb!!!!!, 13.1% Ast Rate, 16.7% TO Rate, 2.9% Blk, 2.0% Stl, 46.2% FT Rate**, .505 2PT/.500 3PT/.682 FT

Drummond: PF/C 6'11, 275, 19 yrs: O-rating 100.8, 50.9% TS, 14.2% O-Reb, 15.6% D-Reb, 3.4% Ast Rate, 16.0% TO Rate, 9.9% Blk, 1.8% Stl, 30.1% FT Rate**, .541 2PT/.000 3 PT/.295 FT

Barnes: SG/SF 6'8, 210, 20.5 yrs: O-rating 107.8, 52.8% TS, 6.9% O-Reb, 11.0 D-Reb, 7.2% Ast Rate, 13.9% TO Rate, 1.1 Blk, 2.0 Stl, 37.4% FT Rate**, .469 2PT/.358 3PT/.723 FT


Okay, so there's the data now how do we analyze it?

People know that I love algorithms and there are actually some really strong ones for taking a college player's statistics and predicting their future success in the NBA. While these algorithms do miss a few sleepers every year (typically guys who improve a lot during their first few seasons in the NBA) they are particularly adept at identifying draft busts in advance. I've seen countless lottery picks over the past decade that these algorithms have identified as not being top 20 or even top 50(!) worthy picks in their draft class and nearly all of the ones identified were huge busts. On the flip side they've identified some terrific sleepers that were ranked in their top five but not drafted early such as Carlos Boozer and Rajon Rondo. Notably they even had the undrafted Jeremy Lin pegged as the #10 prospect coming out of college.

So which college statistics/attributes for draft prospects tend to be the most reliable predictors for future success (or lack thereof) in the NBA?

The answer overwhelmingly is a player's college steal and rebound rates. While this may seem surprising it shouldn't be. A high steal rate in college typically serves as a good indication that you have the requisite athleticism necessary to compete against the elite athletes in the NBA. A low steal rate indicates that you may be overmatched athletically at the next level and that many of your skills won't be utilized effectively in the NBA. Intuitively we know that without a certain level of athleticism a player will not be able to get his shots, defend his man, etc. so this should make sense. High steal rates have been particularly effective at identifying late 1st Round/2nd Round and Undrafted prospects (like Rajon Rondo, Paul Millsap, and Danny Green) as future NBA stars, starters, or rotation players and confirming top picks as future superstars (Dwayne Wade). Low steal rates have also been very effective at identifying top rated prospects that are likely to not live up to their expectations (Corey Brewer). Player to watch 2012 NBA Draft: Dion Waiters, SG Syracuse. Exceptionally High steal rate.

Rebound rates are some of the most consistent statistics we observe in any sport from year to year. Batting averages, goals scored, yards per carry, etc are all over the board, but rebound rates per 48/minutes are remarkably consistent even amongst team and roster changes. So it shouldn't be surprising that players who rebound well in college for their position also tend to rebound well in the NBA. Rebounding is a unique skill and one that is in abundantly short supply in the NBA. It's often overlooked because everyone tends to get a few rebounds, but the distribution of rebounders is right skewed instead of normally distributed (there are lots of average rebounders but very few elite rebounders). Intuitively, college rebounding rates should be an obvious predictor of future success in the NBA. Rebounding is a function of size and athleticism (two important attributes) as well as a unique definable skillset. Rebounding rates have been highly effective at identifying late first rounders/early second rounders as potential stars and starters (Carlos Boozer, Kawhi Leonard, Kenneth Faried) and confirming top picks as future superstars (Duncan, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love). Low Rebounding rates have also been an effective measure to identify top prospects who are likely busts (Adam Morrison). Additionally, there is a manual adjustment made to the data where rebounding rates are revised downwards for college 7 footers. It has been shown that they typically have the biggest dropoff in rebounding rates as they enter the NBA and lose much of their height advantage. The list is long of 7 footers who have been drafted early and never heard from again (Rafael Araujo) or never became impact players (Chris Mihm).

Surprising to many, scoring tends to be one of the weakest predictors of future success.

If you followed the NBA for any length of time though this should not be that surprising. Hundreds of players who scored at will in college (Randolph Childress, Adam Morrison, Sean Respert, Marcus Fizer, Courtney Alexander) have never made any impact in the NBA. For every Carmelo Anthony or Vince Carter that does become a big scorer at the next level there are ten big time college scorers who flame out.


* This is true on average for the league player universe. The positions/player types that statistically tend to age the best on average are ~7'0 PF/C (rely more on size), tall PG's (rely more on basketball awareness), and pure shooters (shooting ability is usually the absolute last skill to go). This should be intuitive as there are countless players who fit these descriptions who have played at a high level well into their 30's: 7'0 PF/C (Duncan, Garnett, Kareem, Parrish); tall PG's (Magic, Kidd, Nash); Shooters (Reggie Miller, Ray Allen, Bruce Bowen).

The positions/player types that statistically tend to age the worst are 'athletic' SG/SF (rely on athleticism), small PG's (rely on quickness), and oversized PF/C (bodies tend to break down). Some continue to play at a high level in their 30's but the Kobe and Michael Jordan's of the world are the exception not the rule. The successful ones also typically adapt their game to become more post oriented.


**You're probably not familiar with "FT Rate". It measures how often you get to the FT relative to the amount of FG attempts you take. The formula is 100*(FTA/FGA). A high FT rate in college typically indicates that your athleticism will translate well to the NBA. A low FT rate indicates that you will probably have trouble creating your own shot or finishing around the basket and you should be projected as a jump shooter and evaluated accordingly.

5/31/2012 1:10:54 AM

I dunno, I think I prefer eye tests.

5/31/2012 1:18:58 AM

Personally, I think Beal looked pretty good when I saw him play. I know he doesn't rebound enough to get face's seal of approval though

5/31/2012 2:47:55 AM

Actually Beal has some pretty dynamic stats. He's definitely worth a look in the top 3 spots. I'm not usually a fan of taking guards early but you could easily justify him. Incredible rebound rate and TS% for a SG, he's got potential to be the 2nd best player in this draft class.

Beal: SG, 6'3, 196, 19 yrs: O-rating 111.9, 57.5% TS, 4.7% O-Reb, 17.5% D-Reb!!!!, 12.7 Ast%, 16.9% TO, 2.6% Blk, 2.5% Stl, 44.0 FT Rate, .541 2PT/ .339 3PT / .769 FT

5/31/2012 5:56:47 AM

taken two weeks ago, supposedly

[Edited on May 31, 2012 at 9:37 AM. Reason : asdf]

5/31/2012 9:37:24 AM

That's a Charlotte Hugo, not the NO version

5/31/2012 10:00:40 AM

please MKG

5/31/2012 10:11:43 AM

NBADraft.net has updated their mock. Guess who they have the Bobcats taking at #2?

derp

http://www.nbadraft.net/

5/31/2012 10:35:54 AM

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--nba-s-problematic-ownership-of-hornets-opens-door-to-rigged-talk-over-draft-lottery-20120531.html

5/31/2012 11:29:15 AM

http://deadspin.com/5914533/the-official-bobcats-draft-lottery-party-was-a-sad-sad-time

5/31/2012 11:36:38 AM

BOGO season tickets? no wonder they're hemorrhaging money

5/31/2012 11:50:06 AM

LOLOLOL at the Bobcats taking Harrison Barnes #2

5/31/2012 11:51:58 AM

things can always change over the next month...but one thing i can say for sure, the 'Cats aren't taking Barnes.

5/31/2012 11:53:09 AM

No. 2 isn't a terrible spot ... just sucks there's no clear-cut #2 prospect. I don't think we could go wrong with Robinson or MKG. Both are low-risk, high-motor guys would start right away and help out a lot on defense and rebounding. Beal is the dark-house option, but they've already got Henderson at SG and Kemba as an undersized PG/SG tweener. Not really sure where Beal would fit.

Barnes would be a good pick at #5 or so, just not at #2. Wonder if they could package Tyrus Thomas' ridiculous contract with the #2 pick and move back to 5-7. Barnes or Beal would make more sense there.

5/31/2012 12:52:00 PM

You really think another team would willingly pay Tyrus Thomas 27 million over the next three years? He'll get amnestied before he gets traded.

The thing with Beal is, if you think he's the BPA, you take him, Henderson's presence be damned. Henderson is a league average SG at best. He led the team in scoring because somebody had to, not because he's a good scorer. What else were they going to do, get shut out? There is not one player on the current roster where you don't draft a player because we already have a guy there. The roster is devoid of talent; you take the BPA, regardless of position. Like Van Gundy said, there is not a top 15 guy at his respective position anywhere on the team.

5/31/2012 2:06:20 PM

They should draft CJ Williams.

5/31/2012 2:10:04 PM

http://www.nba.com/bobcats/splash.html

I like the Windows Movie Maker video

5/31/2012 2:23:09 PM

also the "excitement" of BOBCATS GET #2 PICK! is hilarious. I'm loving the generic old ass loops by acid electronica music

[Edited on May 31, 2012 at 2:26 PM. Reason : public domain shit]

5/31/2012 2:25:05 PM

^^^^I like Beal, and I'm all for BPA, I just don't know if I'd take a 6'3 2G at #2. I actually think Dion Waiters is a better 2G prospect. Reminds me of a poor man's Dwayne Wade.

5/31/2012 2:54:37 PM

even if they do take Harrison Barnes, if he sucks, they can project what his stats would be if he just made one more fucking shot per game.

5/31/2012 2:59:23 PM

^ hahaha wonderful chart.

what if... he made 100 FG/Game

5/31/2012 3:04:54 PM

Rod Higgins on http://www.wfnz.com in the next 15 minutes or so

5/31/2012 3:59:51 PM

How does making one more FG/g give him a 2.4 ppg increase

5/31/2012 4:12:23 PM

^^i would love for them to ask why he thought it was a good idea to sign his own son.

5/31/2012 4:14:18 PM

They assume that nearly half of his additional shots will be 3s?

5/31/2012 4:14:45 PM

Wouldn't that be 2.5 ppg

And if you're going that route, wouldn't you weight the shots by his attempts

Fuckin ESPN

5/31/2012 4:17:21 PM