hopefully espn doesn't come on this message board and hire all our genius commentators away

2/21/2013 7:32:45 PM

^^ this.

As of today, right now, we are quite clearly a tournament team and its not even close.

If the sky calls of course that can change but like markgoal said, that could happen to a crap ton of teams.

[Edited on February 21, 2013 at 7:34 PM. Reason : X]

2/21/2013 7:34:13 PM

I hear News 14 is looking for new blood.

2/21/2013 7:34:51 PM

Quote :

"you were saying we weren't a good team in the midst of a 10 game winning streak"

Exactly. You should be lauding me for my foresight. I saw through all the bullshit and the unimpressive wins over crappy teams.

2/21/2013 7:39:16 PM

Quote :

"As of today, right now, we are quite clearly a tournament team and its not even close. If the sky calls of course that can change but like markgoal said, that could happen to a crap ton of teams."

This is one of the more misinformed posts I've ever seen you make.

Based on our RESUME we are a tournament team right now.

Based on the STRENGTH of our team we are a bubble team though.

Which means that if we play to the level that we've played all season, there is still a non-trivial chance of us missing the tournament.

It has nothing to do with the sky falling. If we play to our current level (which is ~40th best team in the nation) then we could easily find ourselves on the bubble come selection Sunday.


You guys see everything in black/white like wins/losses. It doesn't work like that. It's not oh if you win you're great and if you lose you suck. It's how you win and lose.

Wins and losses are polarizing in terms of making the tournament, but they do not solely dictate how great your team is. You guys don't understand noise at all.

Perhaps that's why you laugh at the "luck" rating even though it's one of the best tools out there at evaluating how "good" a team is compared to their record.

[Edited on February 21, 2013 at 7:44 PM. Reason : a]

2/21/2013 7:42:51 PM

^^crappy teams like UConn and Duke

Quote :

"You guys see everything in black/white like wins/losses"

the tournament committee sees things in black and white, like wins, losses, quality wins, bad losses, strength of schedule, RPI, etc

according to the Luck rating, Nebraska Omaha is much, much better than their 10-18 record indicates

both their double digit losses to the Western Illinois Leathernecks were flukes, and their 44 point loss to North Dakota State was clearly a statistical outlier, not at all representative of how good of a team they are

the South Dakota Coyotes only hung 95 points on them at home in the Ralston Sports & Event Center, but their luck rating is 13th best in the nation, so they're a really good team...the 13th overall luck rating is legit, their 319th ranked RPI rating is what is way off base

[Edited on February 21, 2013 at 7:49 PM. Reason : .]

2/21/2013 7:43:06 PM

Quote :

"I think when most people talk about the bubble, they are talking about if the season ended today or extrapolating body of work to the rest of the season...not whether a team is in the tournament if they lose out."

dude, we're in a three way tie for third place in the acc. to not finish fifth in the league (and likely miss the tournament), we need to end the season better than either virginia or north carolina, possibly both. i don't expect either to lose out the season. in fact, i expect all of them to win games. this is not an apocalyptic scenario i'm talking about here.

2/21/2013 7:48:39 PM

we have the tiebreaker over UNC (in the mythical world where the season ends today), so they're not tied with us...so by this hypothetical logic, we're in a 2-way tie for 3rd with Virginia, whose only quality win is beating us without Lorenzo Brown...I realize our program has sucked dick for the last decade or two, but you're basing all your pessimism on whats happened in the past, not what we've done this season

2/21/2013 7:51:42 PM

dude we're huge underdogs @UNC.

It's not that far fetched to think we will lose one other ACC game based on our body of work this season. We're lucky to have as good of a record as we do.

Then we head to the ACC tourney as the #5 seed and we'd basically have a must win game against UNC or UVA and we'd be an underdog vs either of them.

If we lose three more games this season (and one of them is the 4/5 game) we are most likely out of the tournament. That's not far fetched at all.

2/21/2013 8:15:55 PM

define "huge underdogs"

and i don't know how we're lucky to have as good a record as we do

were we lucky to beat clemson and vt? sure

were we unlucky to lose to uva, miami and maryland, 2 of those games without Zocrates? yep

[Edited on February 21, 2013 at 8:18 PM. Reason : .]

2/21/2013 8:17:01 PM

2:1 underdogs.

We win that game about 1/3rd of the time.

2/21/2013 8:17:49 PM

whats the spread

2/21/2013 8:18:19 PM

it's not out yet but UNC will be approximately ~5.5-6.5 point favorites.

2/21/2013 8:37:42 PM

will they be approximately -200

i'd think more like -140 which to me, isn't 2:1

[Edited on February 21, 2013 at 8:38 PM. Reason : .]

2/21/2013 8:38:23 PM

yeah if i had to guess it'd be -190 / +165 or so

criminal what the books get away with on money lines these days. Fuck George Bush

2/21/2013 8:39:44 PM

on paper, this is our toughest remaining game

on paper we should be favored in every other game

on paper we should finish 12-6

on paper thats definitely a tournament team

2/21/2013 8:42:57 PM

Quote :

"it's not out yet but UNC will be approximately ~5.5-6.5 point favorites."

Too much. 3 to 3.5 is about right. Total ~159

2/21/2013 8:49:23 PM

If you could find someone to let you bet $500 on UNC -3 you should do it immediately, you'll have a great opportunity to then put $500 on NCSU +6 when the line comes out tomorrow.

Win $1,000 if UNC wins by 4 or 5.

Win $450 or $500 if UNC wins by 3 or 6 (depending on whether you are paying juice).

Lose $0 or $50 if anything else happens (again depending on juice)



Being that this is State country you might even find some dumbass to give you UNC straight up, forget the three points.

And I'm not really a totals guy but I'd say you're close I'd guess 162.

[Edited on February 21, 2013 at 8:59 PM. Reason : a]

2/21/2013 8:56:50 PM

thats the great thing about hedging bets

regardless of what happens, you can brag on TWW about how you were right

2/21/2013 9:01:47 PM

i probably won't bet this game because I'm a much more disciplined gambler and really only look for huge edges these days.

But assuming the line is +6 I'd probably take NC State. I don't think going small is going to be particularly effective against us and if they go with a more traditional lineup we are a better team than they are.

But UNC has been playing great as of late and Brown's ankle could be a huge factor. I just think Paige is such a weakness for that team and Roy refuses to sit him so I couldn't see myself laying 6 against us. They are definitely going to be amped to play us though, Roy always makes sure of that.

2/21/2013 9:07:23 PM

Quote :

"If we lose three more games this season (and one of them is the 4/5 game) we are most likely out of the tournament. That's not far fetched at all."

Wrong...3 more losses, including the 4/5 game, would very likely mean we are 4-3 in our last 7, 7-3 in our last 10, 23-10 overall, 11-7 in the ACC...That is in, easily. 4 more losses, including the 4/5 game, and we have a 50/50 chance still.

2/21/2013 9:07:39 PM

Just fuck the bullshit and win out. We were the preseason ACC champs. Time to start fucking acting like it.

2/21/2013 9:23:15 PM

Quote :

"PRESEASON ACC CHAMPS"

go wolpfack

2/21/2013 10:01:41 PM

Up to 37 in kenpom

Back on the bubble, baby!

2/22/2013 7:22:35 AM

If the season ends today, we're easily in. If we win tomorrow, we're easily in. If we lose tomorrow and win the last 4 regular season games, we're in. If we lose tomorrow and the Florida St. game and win one game in the ACC tourney as the 5 seed we're most likely still in, and winning two games in Greensboro would be a lock. Any other scenario is extremely unlikely. We're not losing to BC or WF at home and we're not losing in Atlanta. This team is built to make a run in the NCAA.

Quote :

"Not Sweating It"

2/22/2013 9:02:34 AM

I think we sweep UNC for the first time in a LOOOOOOOOOONG time.

2/22/2013 9:05:41 AM

we win out, to include the ACC tourney, and secure a 3-4 seed.

Quote :

"Not Sweating It"

2/22/2013 9:42:51 AM

Quote :

"If we can get Warren going again, Zotestes ankle healed, Lewis to stop shooting, and Purvis to return to early season form we can hang with anyone offensively."

well, we have gotten Warren going again - it's on him to keep it up. So far, his home vs. away game perforance has been night and day. Part of that is being a freshman, but it's about time for him to grow up and learn to play consistently.

Zotestes ankle looks healed to me. As long as he avoids heavy traffic lane in the lane.

I don't get the knock on Lewis' shooting. I guess people think he had a bad game a long time ago and remember that and hold that against him. Warren has had his share of games with poor shooting, but I don't hear anyone knocking him. The thing about Lewis is that if his shot isn't falling, he recognizes that and limits his shots. The games that he has gone scoreless, he hasn't attempted more than 3 shots. Those also happen to be the games that he had logged 10 minutes or less.

I don't know what to expect with Purvis the rest of this season. The other freshmen have faced their adversities and have emerged from them. Purvis doesn't seem like he has broken through yet. His shots aren't falling like they were earlier in the season. It may be next season before gets back to "form".

Quote :

"My point was trying to illustrate that we were a significantly worse team than people were giving us credit for all season. We were ranked like #16 and people were talking about winning the ACC and I said guys we're not even a definite tourney team right now. This team has SERIOUS defensive issues. We are much closer to a bubble team than a great team. "

Agreed. face called it out, but people dismissed it and didn't want to hear it. In the midst of that 10-game winning streak, yeah we were winning, but it was the way were playing that was most disturbing. Inferior teams like UNC-G were hanging around with us for much of the game. Even coach said we made that little 6-5 freshman post player that scored 20+ points look like an all-American.

This was foreshadowing for a disappointing season based on preseason expectations. We are now at the point that we hope that we can hang on for the rest of the season so we can still make the tournament.

2/22/2013 11:22:11 AM

Quote :

"Zotestes ankle looks healed to me. As long as he avoids heavy traffic lane in the lane."

I know he asked to be pulled for a while last game, but came back in and played to the end. I think that might have been cramps, and not his ankle. I hope.

Quote :

"I don't get the knock on Lewis' shooting. I guess people think he had a bad game a long time ago and remember that and hold that against him."

Lewis has gone13/29 from the field, 3/8 from three. Not bad, but not great.

2/22/2013 11:44:35 AM

How many of those misses drew a foul?

2/22/2013 11:51:49 AM

well none of them or they wouldnt be misses...

2/22/2013 11:57:19 AM

Yeah...getting fouled in the act of shooting does not count as a FG. Unless you make it and get an And 1

2/22/2013 12:04:28 PM

Lewis is also 21 for 22 from the foul line over the last five games! and averaging 10 ppg.

[Edited on February 22, 2013 at 12:22 PM. Reason : ]

2/22/2013 12:16:32 PM

Quote :

"How many of those misses drew a foul?"

Comments like this should receive an automatic one week suspension

2/22/2013 12:20:28 PM

What seriously a shooting foul doesn't count as a FGA? This is blowing my mind

2/22/2013 12:30:18 PM

My basketball IQ is certainly not the highest, but even I knew that

2/22/2013 12:36:52 PM

Yeah I don't know how I never realized that

Welp

2/22/2013 12:37:32 PM

so theoretically, one could "attempt" 10 layups in a game, miss all of them, and get fouled on all of them. This same player could shoot 100% from the free throw line, thus finishing the game with a line of 0-0 FGA-FGM and 20 total points.

2/22/2013 12:46:02 PM

Tyler has a few layups that should have been fouls but he didn't sell the contact.

2/22/2013 12:50:48 PM

i guarantee that happens in Women's basketball

2/22/2013 12:50:52 PM

Another thing, a made field goal attempt from behind the "3 point arc" counts as 3 points for your team, not 2 points like a field goal made inside the "3 point arc"

2/22/2013 12:51:22 PM

When the ball goes through the hoop, it counts as 1, 2, or 3 points- depending on a number of situations

2/22/2013 12:53:51 PM

this game is fucked up and weird

2/22/2013 1:04:43 PM

An agreeable notion.

2/22/2013 1:48:04 PM

.

[Edited on February 22, 2013 at 3:44 PM. Reason : .]

2/22/2013 3:44:34 PM

When the opposing player has the ball close to the out of bounds line you treat it like hockey and give them a good body check forcing them out of bounds. For this, you will be rewarded with possession of the ball.

2/22/2013 4:31:45 PM

The ultimate strategy is to try to score more points than your opponent. If you can do that, you can usually win the game!

/lame

2/22/2013 4:43:26 PM

Quote :

"this has been just a monumental disappointment as a preseason #6"

Preseason means you haven't earned it yet. Preseason rankings mean nothing.

2/22/2013 4:48:19 PM

They're based on factors like how the team's performance the previous year, particularly at the end of the season, and the returning players. So they mean something. They're making educated guesses of how the team will perform. For example, Indiana was pre-season #1. Guess where they're ranked now? Of course, Kentucky was preseason #3.

2/22/2013 4:58:46 PM

Agreed to that!

2/22/2013 5:16:45 PM