8/29/2011 10:42:15 AM

Damn wonder if that will strengthen.

8/29/2011 10:43:11 AM

It'll strengthen.

Future Hurricane Katia right there.

8/29/2011 10:49:37 AM

it will never reach us.

8/29/2011 11:56:15 AM

Now that you've said that we're screwed

8/29/2011 11:58:05 AM

This next one is the Storm of the Century

8/29/2011 12:03:10 PM

Yikes....


So I have a question - if this goes to the gulf instead of the east coast, would you guys continue to keep updating the thread?

8/29/2011 12:17:42 PM

I don't see why not.

That said, this storm won't be reaching the Gulf. Based on what we know now.

8/29/2011 12:20:10 PM

Yes. I'm pretty sure we have in the past. Afterall, this isn't an "Atlantic" Tropical Storm/Hurricane thread

Here's a cool image that shows how much heat Irene yanked out of the ocean:



You can also see the growing La Nina on the left.

8/29/2011 12:20:42 PM

Ok just checking so it definitely won't come to the gulf? How do they determine that? Currents and whatnot?

8/29/2011 12:22:58 PM

Yeah, something like that.

8/29/2011 12:23:43 PM

Not exactly the detailed answer I was hoping for

8/29/2011 12:31:27 PM

The real forecasting model involves a chicken, an axe and a kazoo

8/29/2011 12:40:56 PM

^ Pretty sure there's a photoshop opportunity in here somewhere...



[Edited on August 29, 2011 at 12:49 PM. Reason : ]

8/29/2011 12:48:26 PM

CONSULT THE CHART!

8/29/2011 12:54:28 PM

Quote :

"This next one is the Storm of the Century"

.... that will turn out to sea.

8/29/2011 2:02:16 PM

Quote :

"Not exactly the detailed answer I was hoping for"

lol

It generally involves examining the upper-level winds conducive to storm development and steering. Given that the recent troughs that pushed Irene eastward ripped a weakness in the Atlantic ridge (which typically "holds" the storms southward), the possibility of this storm strengthening and reaching the east coast is minimal.

8/29/2011 2:10:19 PM

Boom!

8/29/2011 3:29:32 PM

holy crap...

jk just read the post above that.

thats still big.

[Edited on August 29, 2011 at 4:31 PM. Reason : g]

8/29/2011 4:24:49 PM

could get interesting

8/29/2011 4:31:04 PM

that one near the SC is really odd how it does a 90 degree turn lol

8/29/2011 4:32:39 PM

Quote :

"Here's a cool image that shows how much heat Irene yanked out of the ocean:"

Fuck yeah. Was at the beach yesterday and the water felt wonderful.

8/29/2011 4:34:16 PM

its like "hai guyz! party at myrtle beach??!!"

8/29/2011 4:34:17 PM

Quote :

"OUT TO SEA"

8/29/2011 4:58:16 PM

Quote :

"What makes the story crazier is that she's in her 60s and he's about 85. They swam through flood waters in a hurricane in the dark to get to safety. They could have drowned."

that's awesome.





robbing the cradle.

8/29/2011 6:55:50 PM

Don't be so certain of the turn being predicted 4 days out.

8/29/2011 7:26:28 PM

any new thoughts on katia?

8/31/2011 8:46:05 PM

nah, ask the shippers, they might know.

8/31/2011 8:48:00 PM

I don't see this one hitting the U.S. how often does a hurricane take a straight track and make landfall? it's going to turn north

9/1/2011 9:23:57 AM

Maybe it'll pull an Ivan

9/1/2011 9:32:53 AM

Dangit. I am leaving for a cruise to Tortola, Antigua, St Thomas and the Bahamas on Sept 10th. This thing better be a good girl and back the f off. lol

9/1/2011 10:42:22 AM

hopefully it will avoid you, but you did book your trip smack dab in the middle of hurricane season so it's a risk you assumed

9/1/2011 10:57:17 AM

haha yeah we get that a lot... September wedding for the lose.

9/1/2011 11:01:43 AM

9/1/2011 11:12:07 AM

even with the extremely low draft of a PWC, that guy is just asking to hit something, rip out part of the hull and fly over the handlebars

9/1/2011 11:15:52 AM

haha, i watched the whole thing hoping for that exact thing to happen

9/1/2011 11:37:34 AM

that was pretty cool, though a fall would have been awesome. He seemed to know what he was doing.

9/1/2011 11:50:12 AM

9/1/2011 3:24:46 PM

That friday-saturday jump is strange...why does it seem to go backwards?? that extreme of a recurve in 1 day?

9/1/2011 3:57:08 PM

Every time I revisit this thread it looks like the models push further and further west in that 90 degree turn toward SC pic.

9/1/2011 3:59:16 PM

^^There's a strong low to the north of the system you can't see and it races between the Atlantic ridge and a ridge over the CONUS.

9/1/2011 4:56:00 PM

what's up with NC and hurricanes that have names starting with I? quite a few have hit NC and typically done noteworthy damage. It'd be interesting to see if any other state has this occurrence as well.

9/1/2011 5:13:43 PM

This is a completely baseless assumption, but I'm going to say that maybe it has something to do with the time of year that the names typically get to "I".

[Edited on September 1, 2011 at 5:36 PM. Reason : If there is in fact some sort of correlation.]

9/1/2011 5:35:48 PM

9/2/2011 8:16:07 AM

Fran and Floyd beg to differ

9/2/2011 8:39:28 AM

Quote :

"Maybe it'll pull an Ivan"

Crazy Ivan?

9/2/2011 8:46:32 AM

that jetskiing video is a such a theDuke866 move

9/2/2011 9:18:32 AM

^^lol, that also came to mind for me

9/2/2011 9:23:57 AM

Hurricanes always Crazy Ivan to starboard in the bottom half of the hour.

9/2/2011 10:51:33 AM

How did you know he would go to the starboard side?


So it looks there is a lack of evidence to confirm that Irene was a hurricane when she made landfall. None of the weather stations located where the eye made landfall recorded anything over 60 knots (64 knots being hurricane force).



Something to add to the discussion I suppose

Full article here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/09/01/tropical-storm-irene/

[Edited on September 2, 2011 at 12:44 PM. Reason : k]

9/2/2011 12:23:19 PM