This following link attempts to make predictions of the big-picture impacts Obamacare will have on the economy. I read the entire thing, and the substance was compelling so I am making a thread. The article is very well-informed, and by outlining these intelligent predictions first, perhaps TSB will incorporate them into new predictions.http://www.businessinsider.com/what-will-change-with-obamacare-2013-10My perverted view of their predictions: - Hospitals will consolidate, some will go under, and high-skilled doctors and nurses will be laid off - Hospitals will use more first and second line workers (low wage), in order to reduce costs per visit - Corporations will use wellness programs from pressure from the pricing structure - Health coverage will ultimately be 3-tiered - Lots of hourly workers will be reduced to <30 hrs/week (not really a prediction any more)Note that the first 2 come from lower re-reimbursement rates from insurance, to come in line with Medicare-ish rates. This is a compelling argument. That pressures hospitals to schedule doctors in rapid-fire machine-gun sessions. Personnel costs are just too high to sustain the lower reimbursement rates. This detail is much more important than I have ever considered before.I disagree with the 3rd point, because preventive care hasn't been empirically shown to reduce costs. It only improves quality of life. Employers have insufficient motive to improve employee's quality of life. The ACA has some provisions about reimbursement on the basis of patient, not visit, number. Here is a summary:
10/6/2013 11:03:34 PM
10/7/2013 1:28:28 AM
10/7/2013 2:33:53 AM
it makes sense that wellness programs are encouraged, because a corporation will be charged based on the total amount of care for all their employees. if they are unhealthy even in the short term, then they have more problems. over a number of years it adds up even more.a friend of mine works for a company that charges more to people with a very high BMI. they also offer discounts to those with gym memberships who use them regularly, and i think give out free gym memberships.
10/7/2013 2:43:15 AM
10/7/2013 4:42:38 AM
10/7/2013 6:54:25 AM
10/7/2013 8:27:33 AM
BCBSNC is actively working on this in NC and I know one large hospital in the western part of the Triangle that is actively pursuing this. And while you are right most people don't choose a hospital, hospital systems are diversifying into the practice field too. Many hospitals now own/manage a Physician Network where they actually handle individual clinics outside of the "hospital" environment. This is a mutually advantageous arrangement, as it gives the doctor an association with a large system and they handle a lot of the staffing, office management stuff. On the other side they get almost exclusive referrals from that clinic/doctor, so it brings them in more business. One area that is tougher to manage is that the doctor usually gets a salary, so whether he sees 12 patients a day or 50, he makes the same amount. They approach this with performance matrices for bonus pay, so that the doctor who does more business and brings in more profits for the physicians network will be the one making more. As for "community care" which is what its referred to locally, there is still a lot of exploration and debate going on about it. On the one hand they are getting paid a flat rate to handle these patients, so it may cost them more if that patient does need a more expensive procedure, they do not have to worry about unsteady pay. The insurance company strokes them the same check for the community of patients a month, and you do not have to worry as much about nonpayment from the patients portion for a super expensive procedure. So while they lose some on the big procedures, which are expensive for the hospital to perform, they make out in the large number of patients they are "servicing". Obviously if they can get their patients healthier and to be proactive on their health, then the costs for this decrease for both the patients and the hospital as well. So with a lot of the unstability of Medicare/Medicaid payments, the dearth of uninsured patients, etc larger hospital systems are very interested in this format. Smaller hospitals without a larger hospital network affiliation who cannot offer all of the services would not benefit in this approach and would probably lose out big time. But Wakemed, UNC, & Duke would likely embrace something like this.[Edited on October 7, 2013 at 8:56 AM. Reason : ]
10/7/2013 8:54:12 AM
10/7/2013 9:11:05 AM
its very-slightly high on average with other countries with similar or better care per my googling
10/7/2013 9:14:54 AM
10/7/2013 9:53:27 AM
10/7/2013 10:48:23 AM
The ACOs don't get to pick and choose patients cause yeah that wouldn't work. They're assigned patients by medicare afaik.I don't know the specifics on pricing but i'd be willing to bet its regional based on past pricing models.Since the laws only specify that the quality of the population must meet certain metrics, instead of how or who to target, it seems pretty obvious that the first groups providers will target are the chronically-ill, as you note. These people are mostly older and they use the most care AND are the largest drag on quality metrics. Its one very good starting point.The next target would probably be adjusting internal processing of common acute cases to reduce waste, but that's just a guess on my part.Theoretically they could do multiple things at once, but irl hospitals are really poorly run and theres so much momentum in existing processes that they take a lot of effort to change.
10/7/2013 11:23:27 AM
10/7/2013 11:50:19 AM
exactly. the majority of cases are very boring and easily diagnosed and treated. but since the outliers are always more exciting, that's what the media and politicians bring up when they talk about reforms cause people are morons and want to hear about the flashy thing.saving $5 on a boring procedure that's done 10 million times a year is obviously better than saving $100 on something done a thousand times a year. I mean the rarity of those cases is one of the primary reasons they cost so much. so trying to fix the costs for those outliers first (or worse designing the entire system around them) is extremely silly.cut costs on the most common procedures that affect the most people and then use what you've learned there to hit the next common procedures and so on and so forth. another thing you're gonna find is that even if you're focusing on one specific chronic problem some of the fixes are immediately going to improve all hospital function. ex: if you're focusing on making sure your nurses handle pneumonia discharges properly that training is going to bleed over into every discharge they do.this is all kind of exciting cause theres such a good chance that it works in the long term.
10/7/2013 2:33:50 PM
There's something else I'm curious about:We have much ado about the fact that premiums will be further equalized between people of different age groups and family sizes. There is some provision that prevents the most expensive plan from being some multiple of the less expensive plan. But yet, we haven't seemed to decouple health insurance from employment.So in the open marketplace, prices are rising for young people and decreasing for the 60 year olds. Do employers see this effect? They have, and will continue to, pay more for the health care plan for older workers, but will that be less now? Or are those rules not going to be the same on the employer side?
10/10/2013 5:07:19 PM
10/10/2013 6:05:25 PM
10/10/2013 7:29:28 PM
This thread is about predictions for the ACAIf you're rehashing the same political bickering in the other threads that's your own damn fault.
10/10/2013 8:15:16 PM
Horrible, horrible things are going to happen! And they're going to happen to you, and you...and you! Oh nelly!It'll be a disaster of biblical proportions: Old Testament, real wrath of God type stuff.Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!Heed this warning. Twisted tail! A thousand eyes! Trapped forever!!Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...the dead rising from the grave!Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together...mass hysteria!Beware! Beware! Time is short. Eeepa! Eeepa! Eeeeeeepaaaaa![Edited on October 10, 2013 at 8:56 PM. Reason : Thanks for listening! - Cray Z. Teabagger
10/10/2013 8:55:02 PM
10/10/2013 9:03:53 PM
Employers shouldn't have anything to do with their employees' health in the first place (aside from not making it needlessly worse via shitty working conditions), so such a prognostication is worthless as it is.
10/10/2013 10:58:41 PM
I for one welcome the end of the system of employer-based health insurancemany a worker has stayed in a job that became shitty or otherwise undesirable on a day-to-day basis just because Megacorp. USA offers decent health insurancebut under Obamacare, they'll get to switch jobs without worrying about whether the new one comes with health insurance
10/11/2013 5:44:24 AM
The end of employer-based health insurance is coming?Could have fooled me.
10/11/2013 8:11:21 AM
10/11/2013 8:14:35 AM
OMG private companies offering BENEFITS as a condition of employment? UNTHINKABLE!
10/11/2013 8:22:12 AM
I'm not sure healthcare should be a benefit.
10/11/2013 8:50:00 AM
employers shouldn't need to offer healthcare bc it should be free for everyone already
10/11/2013 8:57:10 AM
10/11/2013 9:11:58 AM
was the $26k before or after the discount based on your insurance?
10/11/2013 4:06:54 PM
10/11/2013 6:59:03 PM
free at the point of usepaid out of taxeskinda how all government entitlements work
10/12/2013 11:20:53 AM
If I could opt out of my state insurance and tack its "appraised value" onto my salary I would turn around and happily buy into this cheap-ass shit.
10/12/2013 11:38:50 AM
^ that's what republicans and lobbyists that wrote ACA are afraid of. It wouldn't take much for ACA to evolve into something people can gladly get behind. Eliminate the employer mandate but incentivize former health benefits as compensation, bolster the exchanges, add a public option, close the loophole for subsidies for poor, and you have a program people might be proud of.
10/12/2013 1:55:23 PM
^^^ exactly. that's how all entitlements bankrupt us
10/12/2013 9:32:20 PM
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/10/12/obamacare-rates-trigger-more-sticker-shock/
10/12/2013 9:46:55 PM
OMG FAUX NEWS!!!!
10/12/2013 10:08:25 PM
The Supreme Court upheld the individual mandate on the grounds that the penalty for not being insured was actually a tax as I understand it (correct me if I'm getting any of this wrong). But I was also under the impression that the Court can not rule on whether a tax is constitutional until someone has had to pay it. If this is the case, is it possible the ACA could be challenged again once this happens?
10/12/2013 11:42:51 PM
10/12/2013 11:56:15 PM
10/13/2013 7:40:27 AM
I predict it will be changed o pared back eventually but insurance options for people with pre-existing conditions will survive and keeping kids on ins until age 26.
10/14/2013 12:14:30 AM
I can't see Congress ever pulling back the individual mandate while keeping the preexisting conditions clause, unless they feel like bankrupting insurance companies overnight.
10/14/2013 12:21:30 AM
^ that i actually agree with... taking on pre-existing conditions is only feasible with the influx of revenue from healthy people that don't use the healthcare system, or don't use their share
10/14/2013 12:52:38 AM
if anything in the bill gets repealed it will be the insurance related stuff. Hopefully the ACOs wouldn't be a casualty, but who knows. I think whats more likely is they do work around creating national exchanges and decreasing insurance bureaucracy instead of repeal.
10/14/2013 8:41:55 AM
http://soundmoneyinstitute.org/obamacare-makes-young-peoples-financial-situation-even-worse/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=obamacare-makes-young-peoples-financial-situation-even-worse
10/14/2013 8:50:51 PM
That article cites nothing but right-wing media and editorials. Seems legit.Also, the hyperlink in:
10/14/2013 10:35:39 PM
10/14/2013 11:02:27 PM
10/14/2013 11:07:34 PM
Pretty much every progressive disliked the ACA decrying it as a handout to the insurance companies. Back in the days when the Republicans filibustered the ACA and negotiated OUT the public option (then subsequently didn't vote for the bill they crafted), Obama had to give that speech about not letting the good be the enemy of the great (he's used this line several times since his candidacy). Setting minimums standards for coverage and predictable payouts to health providers, expanding health care subsidies, and creating health exchanges are all good ideas.The employer mandate needs tweaking, and the individual mandate without a public option is crooked. I wouldn't say this is breaking the system, but Rome wasn't built in a day. Overall it's an incremental advancement, far from broken to uselessness or heralding death. That's a paranoid delusional expectation of what to expect. [Edited on October 14, 2013 at 11:23 PM. Reason : ]
10/14/2013 11:22:30 PM
focusing on payment is retarded when the problem is the providers.
10/14/2013 11:37:32 PM