Just a place to keep track of everything. The proposed congressional maps were released today.



http://www.ncleg.net/gis/RandR07/District_Plans/DB_2011/Congress/Rucho-Lewis_Congress_1/Maps/mapSimple.pdf

7/1/2011 1:34:57 PM

What's going on with district 12?

Is there a population density overlay with this map...

7/1/2011 1:53:14 PM

District 12 should be known as the Mel Watt, the Democrats Gerrymandered that district back in the 90's

7/1/2011 2:09:52 PM

District 12 has been like that since it's inception in 1993. Home of one of the worst congressman in my mind (and certainly the biggest shill for the banks), Mel Watt.

The one that changes the most in here is the 4th district, as it loses most of Wake County (the portion that was heavily Republican, and always cancelled out by Durham/Chapel hill). That went to district 2, which was typically Democrat-leaning, previously being held by Bob "Who are you" Etheridge, until he got kicked out by Renee Ellmers, an equally dimwitted moron.

Also, Wake County will now likely have 4 congressional districts. That will make early voting real fun .

[Edited on July 1, 2011 at 2:10 PM. Reason : -]

7/1/2011 2:10:09 PM

I thought they were going to eliminate the one super squiggly-line district, not create another.

7/1/2011 3:55:37 PM

It's all for naught. After 2013 I'll be relegated to putting up with Virginia Foxx into perpetuity.

7/1/2011 4:56:49 PM

That is kind of the one bright side of this for me. While it sucks to see that Brad Miller will lose district 13 now that they've wiped out the urban parts (some of North Greensboro & Raleigh), at least they added in Surry County to counter balance the population. Which means my old home county will belong to whatever new GOP runs for congress, not Foxx.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2011/07/01/2421920/new-nc-congressional-map-boosts.html#ixzz1Qt2Zq9z6

Quote :

"North Carolina's new Republican-drawn congressional districts would give the GOP at least two and possibly four more seats, according to one analyst."

Quote :

"Democrat David Price's 4th District would snake all the way into Cumberland County. It adds Republican voters to districts currently represented by Democratic Reps. Larry Kissell of Montgomery County, Heath Shuler of Haywood County, Brad Miller of Wake County and Mike McIntyre of Robeson County. "Say Goodbye to Democrats Miller, Shuler and Kissell; McIntyre Fighting Chance," analyst John Davis headlined a news release on the proposed districts. North Carolina currently has seven Democrats and six Republicans in its delegation. Republicans gained one seat last fall -- Renee Ellmers in the 2nd District -- to help the GOP take back control of the U.S. House."

It's unfortunate that this will lock in Renee *I raise campaign funds by attacking Muslims* Ellmers in congress for many years to come.

7/1/2011 5:18:00 PM

Quote :

" @fivethirtyeight GOP gerrymander in NC is a work of art. State voted for Obama, but McCain won between 56-58% of the vote in 10 of 13 new districts."

7/1/2011 6:38:15 PM

Not even commenting on this particular map...but people should realize that the Democrats have been in power/gerrymandered for so long, that even if everyone could agree that the Republicans objectively drew the fairest districts, the map would be in their favor, and would thus get claims of gerrymandering thrown their way.

7/1/2011 7:06:42 PM

No, if the GOP drew the fairest districts, each one would have voted for Obama in '08 by a slim majority

or if they wanted to stay on the good side of the courts, they would have kept that much-litigated 12th district pretty much as it is, made a similarly strongly GOP-packed district, and made all of the others competitive.

We need more systems out there like Iowa's, which uses a nonpartisan commission to draw districts that are fairly compact and follow as closely as possible the rivers and county boundaries.

7/2/2011 2:41:30 AM

Quote :

"No, if the GOP drew the fairest districts, each one would have voted for Obama in '08 by a slim majority"

What? How do you figure? That's not even remotely close to being true. You know that there's more to it than looking at voter registrations in each district, right?

7/2/2011 10:55:13 AM

Yeah, that was too flippant

Probably the most important things are keeping them relatively compact, following natural and permanent political boundaries, and not splitting up major metro areas whose populations don't exceed (state pop.)/(num. reps.)

7/3/2011 2:01:48 AM

knowing the Gerrymandering under Brad Miller, it's hard not to understand Republicans wanting some payback

7/3/2011 11:13:06 AM

Quote :

"...would get more Democratic voters, and so would Democratic Rep. David Price of Chapel Hill. But Price's new 4th District, now centered in the Triangle, would snake through Lee, Harnett and Cumberland counties. Along the way, it would pick up Democratic voters from Republican Rep. Renee Ellmers. Read more: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2011/07/02/2421920/new-nc-congressional-map-boosts.html#ixzz1R4F47YqS"

I'm almost a little surprised at them making the 4th more Democratic. I mean I get what they are doing by trying to make the surrounding districts more right leaning by creating a snake district that pulls in more Dems into the 4th, but I figured their anti-Price sentiments might just outweigh their desire to rig things in their favor.

Also, its hard to tell from the county map, but I wonder where Lawson ends up. I bet he could beat Ellmers, if he is willing to challenge to a GOP incumbent.

7/3/2011 2:31:43 PM

If this map holds, Lawson will be in the 2nd.

Also, why would you be surprised about them keeping Price? He's strongly pro-war, pro-drug war, and pro-handouts to corporations. They've been waiting to redraw the 4th in to a solidly democratic district, because the Democrats had been negating all of the Republicans in the R-heavy Wake County portion of the 4th district.

7/3/2011 3:13:08 PM

Quote :

"Lawson will be in the 2nd."

Do you think he'll run against Ellmers?

7/3/2011 3:30:20 PM

When someone loses twice, don't you think the party would rather run someone new in their place? Seems sort of arrogant in the same way that moving to a new district to keep running for office does. "They need ME in DC! I'm going to run over and over again/move districts/draw myself a district". Or does that rule not apply if you're on the Ron Paul Team (because obviously you do have superior beliefs, duh).

The biggest travesty is Patrick McHenry's blatant neutering of Asheville by putting it in his district where it is outweighed by conservative cities. If communities of interest have ANYTHING to do with redistricting and the VRA, then that's unconstitutional. Asheville has nothing to do with Gastonia and he just drew that thing to keep Democrats out of Western NC.

And if Pantano gets in due to this new district, I'm disowning NC. He's fucking Patrick Bateman with a funny name.

Watch to see what happens in Virginia. If Roanoke and Salem get split between districts and the 9th (SW Va., deep Appalachia) takes in Martinsville (like an even more depressing Greensboro), then "communities of interest" no longer matter in this.

I can understand majority-minority districts due to the ability of line-drawers to chop up disenfranchised groups into powerlessness (ex: SC has about 35% African American population, but w/o the VRA, they could be divided to the point where their vote is always outweighed by white populations), but dividing up smaller cities like Asheville or Fayetteville is just partisan BS.

[Edited on July 6, 2011 at 4:41 PM. Reason : s]

7/6/2011 4:40:44 PM

i just love looking at the map of the 12th district. Anyone who knows ANYTHING about Greensboro can look at that map and see exactly what happened there. I wish there were some legitimate way to prevent such fraud, but, alas, I think any measure suitably powerful enough to do so would just be abused by those in power anyway.

Quote :

"or if they wanted to stay on the good side of the courts, they would have kept that much-litigated 12th district pretty much as it is"

I don't see how anyone, much less a court could look at the 12th district as anything but illegal. It's like they tried to make it as obvious as possible that they were stacking the disctrict with blacks

[Edited on July 6, 2011 at 4:48 PM. Reason : ]

7/6/2011 4:45:58 PM

^ Read the Voting Rights Act. It applies to the counties in question and you can't balkanize the black vote or any minority vote to render them powerless.

Well, do you trust judges or elected representatives or political scientists?

Answer: only trust Ron Paul.

[Edited on July 6, 2011 at 4:49 PM. Reason : x]

7/6/2011 4:48:07 PM

Quote :

"When someone loses twice, don't you think the party would rather run someone new in their place? Seems sort of arrogant in the same way that moving to a new district to keep running for office does. "They need ME in DC! I'm going to run over and over again/move districts/draw myself a district". Or does that rule not apply if you're on the Ron Paul Team (because obviously you do have superior beliefs, duh)."

Lawson isn't very popular among the NC GOP as a whole, at least during previous election cycles. Lawson isn't a social conservative. His focus is not to ban gay marriage and all this other crap that the NC GOP is trying to push through.

Lawson seriously dominated Price on the issues in the faux-debates they held. Price is a complete buffoon, Lawson is a new blood intellectual.

7/6/2011 4:48:52 PM

When they're on you're team, they're "new blood intellectuals".

Whatever, yall have at it. I don't live here now. This is a bad map.

[Edited on July 6, 2011 at 4:51 PM. Reason : x]

7/6/2011 4:50:32 PM

Quote :

"It applies to the counties in question and you can't balkanize the black vote or any minority vote to render them powerless. "

but you can stack the deck to render EVERYONE ELSE IN THE DISTRICT meaningless. two wrongs make a right, apparently.

7/6/2011 4:52:42 PM

That's how the law is written.

Can you give me some numbers on the "everyone else" vote in those areas? I think it's more than likely still around 50/50 or a slight Dem advantage.

The 1st might be different, but it's more contiguous.

7/6/2011 4:56:37 PM

so, I guess if the law said "no darkies in town after 5pm," then that'd be A-OK with you. you are spineless

7/6/2011 4:57:18 PM

7/6/2011 5:01:19 PM

I think Lawson could easily beat Ellmers in the primary.

7/6/2011 5:06:29 PM

He probably could, but I doubt he will [run].

[Edited on July 6, 2011 at 5:18 PM. Reason : ...]

7/6/2011 5:18:27 PM

^^And with numbers like these, where the GOP will get a 12 to 30 point advantage before the race even starts in the new district 2, if Lawson wins the primary, then he's won.

I always got the feeling that he was running a message campaign, not a real campaign. I don't think that he will run now that he has a good chance of winning.

[Edited on July 6, 2011 at 5:23 PM. Reason : .]

7/6/2011 5:22:01 PM

No, he was definitely running a real campaign. He wasn't that far from beating Price, either, but obviously the 4th district presented major problems.

7/6/2011 5:40:36 PM

Quote :

"so, I guess if the law said "no darkies in town after 5pm," then that'd be A-OK with you. you are spineless"

LOL, no, what I mean by that is "I support the CRAs of 1957, 64, and 65." You'd be fine with disenfranchising minority communities in redistricting, I guess? Cause before this policy, a group that has 30% of the total state population in some places could be diluted between districts to a point where their vote made no difference (if they could even pass the literacy test and pay the poll tax). Then again, your ilk think that allowing private segregation in no way contributed to a lack of access to capital and opportunity among blacks and thus was of no collective interest. At least that's what the Paul family thinks.

Go embarrass the university by throwing a flag at a statue of Martin Luther King or something.

[Edited on July 7, 2011 at 1:55 PM. Reason : x]

7/7/2011 1:54:33 PM

http://www.ncleg.net/gis/DMV/V23/default.htm

Here is a more interactive map. You can zoom in and figure out exactly where the 4 districts in Wake land, or where Greenville is cut in half at, etc.

http://www.wral.com/news/state/nccapitol/blogpost/9834610/

Quote :

"The new map would slice the town of Garner down the middle, and Mayor Ronnie Williams isn’t happy about it. “It appears to be political, and there’s no surprise there,” he said. “We think it’s a bit odd they would choose to split a relatively small town into two districts.” Garner, which has a population of around 26,000, is mostly represented at present by 2nd district Republican Renee Ellmers. Under the new map, 1st district Democrat G.K. Butterfield would represent the northern half of the town, and Ellmers would have the southern half. The line zigzags along blocks through neighborhoods, even picking up what looks like a strip of homes down one side of Highway 50. “It’s tough enough with one member of Congress for a town our size to build a relationship and communicate with them. Now we’ll have to do it with two,” Williams said."

http://www.wral.com/news/state/nccapitol/blogpost/9834610/

Quote :

"Voters all over the state lined up tonight to speak at a six-hour, multi-site videoconferenced public hearing on proposed new congressional voting districts crafted by Republican leaders. The hearing was less one-sided than the last hearing on VRA state districts, but critics of the map still outnumbered supporters, especially as the night wore on. "

Quote :

"The most heated comments of the night came from citizens of cities who stand to be divided up into multiple districts under the new plan. Cliff Moone is the tenth district Democratic chair in Catawba. He objected to “the unprecedented balkanization of my hometown, Hickory,” a town of 40,000 that would be split into three congressional districts. “How can this insanity be necessary?” he asked. “There is no way that what you have done to Hickory meets election law,” added independent Judith Ivester."

Quote :

"The speakers in Buncombe County were even more upset. The maps would cut Asheville out of the 11th District entirely, tacking it onto the 10th District that stretches toward Charlotte. Haywood Democrat Janie Benson echoed many other speakers in arguing that Asheville is the economic and cultural hub of its district, where it’s been since 1792. Removing Asheville from the 11th, Benson said, would be like “removing the heart of a person.”"

[Edited on July 8, 2011 at 2:28 AM. Reason : .]

7/8/2011 2:19:26 AM

My voice in District 1 has never been heard and will be heard even less with this redistricting. I demand District 3 encompass Scotland Neck so my voice can better be heard.

7/8/2011 9:23:54 AM

My hope is that District 1 (Ohio) will become even more Cincinnati-based, so that there will be a greater chance of electing a Democrat.

Then again, because the Rethugnicans hold all of the levers of power, I predict Cincy will be split up even more, to entrench Steve Shabutt and "Mean Jean" Schmidt further.

7/9/2011 4:21:53 PM

I'm pretty sure that the NC House/Senate maps come out this week. Paul Stam's district is going to be sliced in two, since it's currently at like 160% or something ridiculous like that. That mean's I'll likely be in a house district with no incumbent.

7/10/2011 5:11:53 PM

Update for State House/Senate proposals:

7/12/2011 7:59:39 PM

Quote :

"You'd be fine with disenfranchising minority communities in redistricting, I guess?"

how in the fuck do you get that? It's just as wrong to pack a district with whites as it is to pack a district with blacks. two wrongs don't make a right.

Quote :

"Then again, your ilk think that allowing private segregation in no way contributed to a lack of access to capital and opportunity among blacks and thus was of no collective interest. At least that's what the Paul family thinks."

It's too bad that I should have the right to do WHATEVER the fuck I want with my own property. I'm sorry that YOUR ILK thinks that people have no rights to their own stuff. I'm sorry that YOUR ILK thinks that gov't mandated segregation played zero part in the lack of opportunity among blacks. Woolworth's doesn't want to serve a black guy at the counter? BIG FUCKING DEAL.

7/16/2011 5:21:15 AM

Round 2! Fight!

7/20/2011 1:05:35 AM

These changes don't make a lot of sense.

On a partisan level, these changes cram even more dems into the 3 safe districts, giving even larger GOP advantages in many of the other 10 districts. And this new map starts double-bunking Dems, so now, not only do the GOP candidates start out with around 10 point advantages, but they also get to run against newbie Dems instead of incumbents in a couple of districts.

On a nonpartisan level, this map looks even more snake-like and seems to break up more counties and communities than the first map did with more tentacles being added onto districts.

I know the first version of their map got a lot of criticism, but I can't imagine any of the criticism was "this map isn't snaky or partisan enough"

7/20/2011 11:40:17 AM

Quote :

"Lawson is a new blood intellectual."

Quote :

"When they're on you're team, they're "new blood intellectuals"."

I do think Lawson has his head on straight, even though i have not yet ever voted for him. He gained a lot of credibility when he supported reinstating Glass-Steagall.

Burr, Price, and even good ol' Billy Clinton forgot that banks are lending institutions, not casinos. Its almost as if we learned nothing from the Great Depression.

7/20/2011 12:44:40 PM

Would this new map pit Lawson against Coble or Ellmers?

When it was the first map, I think he could beat a relative newbie social conservative like Ellmers with a lot of wake county in his district. But if this new one puts him trying to win Trinity, Asheboro, Siler City, and Southern Pines against a republican incumbent who has been there since before many tdubbers were born, he doesn't stand a chance.

I noticed this new map puts NCSU's campus and much of Raleigh squarely in Price's district, which guarantees we'll be represented by him for a decade.

I'm kind of surprised that they decided to extract Durham from the triangle and put them in with a sort of coastal town like Elizabeth City. And we've got part of Raleigh sharing a district with Mt. Airy on the western side of the state. And there is no stronger community bond than that shared between Chapel Hill and Fayetteville. Yes, this is indeed a sensible map.

7/20/2011 1:29:33 PM

Okay, I just read that you don't legally have to live in the district you're running in, so the people who have been drawn out of their districts can still run in them, they'll just risk taking a hit for running for office somewhere they don't live.

http://www.wral.com/news/state/nccapitol/blogpost/9877665/

Quote :

"The Joint Redistricting committee didn’t hear much tonight it hadn’t heard before. But at least in the Eastern meeting (Raleigh, Fayetteville, Wilmington, and Rocky Mount), the comments were a bit more colorful than in meetings past. Raleigh resident Greg Flynn spoke from Wilmington, near where he’s on vacation, because, he said, “It appears there is no part of North Carolina, no matter how remote, that cannot be drawn into a congressional district with Wake County.” Flynn took particular issue with the tortured lines of new House districts proposed for Wake County: “It’s as if some dentist tried to floss between two Republican districts to remove the Democratic debris,” he said. (Senate Redistricting chairman Bob Rucho, R-Mecklenburg, is a dentist.) "

Quote :

"In Fayetteville, Wendy Michener said she was “shocked” to see the proposed maps for Cumberland County. “We’ve always been chopped up in small pieces, but what you’ve done to us is amazing. We look like a road accident,” she told the committee. Joining Michener in Cumberland County was small businessman Andrew Quarter. “I think we might need to call Ghostbusters, because it looks like Cumberland County’s been slimed,” Quarter told the committee, adding that Senate District 21 “is a jellyfish.”"

Quote :

"The committee also heard from dozens of everyday citizens upset about the division of their communities. Many spoke from Rocky Mount, where the new map would divide Wilson and Nash from Edgecombe. “I’m not sure I understand exactly what a ‘community of interest’ is,” said Greg Gregory of Wilson, but he argued the “Tri-county area” should qualify."

Quote :

"Quite a few speakers this evening protested the number of women targeted in House and Senate GOP maps. On the House side, women make up 27% of all House lawmakers and 42% of House Democrats, but they're 53% of the Dems double-bunked with other lawmakers."

[Edited on July 20, 2011 at 2:24 PM. Reason : .]

7/20/2011 2:09:02 PM

http://www.wral.com/news/state/nccapitol/blogpost/9892961/

Quote :

"Who pays for politicos? A top-tier GOP redistricting expert is being paid with public dollars to draw new districts that will give an advantage to Republicans. Tom Hofeller was Redistricting Chairman for the Republican National Committee from the 1980s through the early 2000s. He’s now a mapping consultant, one of the top experts in the political arena. State Senate Redistricting Chairman Bob Rucho, R-Mecklenburg, confirmed today Hofeller is being paid through the General Assembly’s budget. Rucho said the payments will go through the law firm they’ve hired, charged to the state as an expense."

7/22/2011 12:43:50 PM

Quote :

"Yes, this is indeed a sensible map."

suck a fat republican cock, liberal. deal with it.

7/22/2011 12:46:55 PM

They should just redistrict based on long and lat lines, not this tentacle porn bs.

7/25/2011 5:33:46 PM

but that (along with my old favorite, shortest-splitline) tends to split up major cities

it also ends up packing Dems in so that the GOP gets an advantage

a much better idea involves making compact districts that as much as possible follow county lines and natural boundaries, preserve communities of interest, and nest together (so that most State Senate districts lie completely within Congressional districts, and most State House districts lie completely within State Senate districts)

7/25/2011 8:50:46 PM

The real answer is state-wide elections. The district lines are always going to be somewhat subjective, so there's no silver bullet for that.

7/25/2011 9:06:15 PM

only with some provision for proportional representation

otherwise you can easily have situations where minorities are permanently disenfranchised

7/25/2011 9:12:59 PM

That's what it would be...proportional representation. You'd work it out so anyone that reached a certain percentage of the vote ("quota") gets a spot.

7/25/2011 9:14:55 PM

k, see I thought you were going to call for the return of "at-large" districts, which currently only exist in states with a single Representative

7/25/2011 9:15:50 PM

http://www.wral.com/news/state/nccapitol/blogpost/9903070/

Quote :

"Senate Dems release map Senate Democrats have released their own proposal for a new Senate district map. They plan to introduce as a floor amendment during this afternoon's debate on S455, the GOP Senate map proposal. ... Democrats say their map splits fewer counties than the GOP plan: 14, rather than 19. That's a consideration under the state constitution's Whole County Provision. The Stephenson ruling reaffirmed that county lines must be taken in account wherever they don't conflict with the Voting Rights Act or other legal requirements. The Democratic map also splits far fewer precincts, they say – 6 as opposed to 257 in the GOP map"

7/25/2011 10:18:58 PM