So, it looks like our first chance to see snow may come on Saturday night! Right now, chances aren't as great for accumulation, but we should see a good bit of it after dark. This weekend will usher in cold weather for the next week, and two more possibilities for snow in the next 15 days. Small chance for Wednesday and a distant forecast of snow over the weekend of the 11th. While I will have little other than speculation and excitement to add to a legitimate weather discussion, I sure do hope we see some good snow this season.

I would really like to see this again :


Here are some blogs/forums that typically have pretty good information.
http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/allan-huffman
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showforum=11

[Edited on December 2, 2010 at 8:20 PM. Reason : ]

12/2/2010 8:12:50 PM

Rain

12/2/2010 8:17:18 PM

HOLY FUCK i didn't scroll down & saw just the accumulation + you talking about snow on saturday and about had a heart attack.

damn it


i really really really really hope we get snow. i'd pay good money for a white xmas too. the people in target have been buying up sleds left & right since they first got them out a few weeks ago.

12/2/2010 8:28:05 PM

^My husband did the same thing. "We're in the 24 inch accumulation??" "Did you even read my thread?" Maybe I shouldn't have put the chart in.

12/2/2010 8:34:21 PM

time to buy up some milk and bread.

12/2/2010 8:41:16 PM

i hate snow and everything about it.

bah.

humbug.

12/2/2010 9:24:14 PM

I actually threw some light snow/mix into the forecast for this Monday night into Tuesday morning for us here in Oklahoma. Big blast of cold, polar air expected for much of the nation early next week.

As for that December 11th outlook, I haven't really paid much attention to NC in forecasts lately, so I have no idea how consistent the models have been. If it has been anything like what I've been dealing with with the models here in Okie for the 6th and 7th, I wouldn't bank on anything significant. However, this looks like a pretty good set up for a couple inches of snow, for right now. It's still the 216HR forecast on the 18z GFS run. Lots can change.



[Edited on December 2, 2010 at 10:24 PM. Reason : map]

12/2/2010 10:18:34 PM

i enjoyed missing a week of school in 8th grade for the 2000 snow storm

12/2/2010 10:23:58 PM

I fucking hate NC winters. One cock tease after another

12/2/2010 11:07:02 PM

^ i agree

12/2/2010 11:14:13 PM

I'm glad you agree.

12/2/2010 11:37:05 PM

Fuck snow

Fuck winter

Fuck you guys

12/3/2010 12:44:03 AM

^my sentiments exactly

12/3/2010 1:13:02 AM

Quote :

"I fucking hate NC winters. One cock tease after another "

YES.

12/3/2010 1:35:36 AM

Quote :

"I fucking hate NC winters hurricane seasons. One cock tease after another"

12/3/2010 7:33:03 AM

I SEE A 216HR MODEL FORECAST IN HERE.

BLASPHEMY.

GET THAT OUTTA HERE.

MIGHT AS WELL SAY IT'S GOING TO RAIN GOLD COINS.

12/3/2010 7:48:33 AM

Quote :

"Fuck snow Fuck winter Fuck you guys"

.

12/3/2010 9:09:35 AM

There is just too much I don't like about this weekend's setup for me to get excited.

1. The vortmax is currently progged to pass too far north along the NC/VA border. Ideally you would want it passing just to your south.



2. As you see partial thicknesses are on the line and given this is just a model you can't take it verbatim.

3. Moisture (QPF) is limited and considering p-type will be driven by precip rates in this case for most that doesn't bode well for too much in the way of snow.








4. As you see above in this profile temps are slightly above freezing near the surface. It is also a bit dry in the upper portion of the dendritic growth zone (area between -10 and -20 C aloft).

5. Ground temps still too warm for light snow to stick.

[Edited on December 3, 2010 at 9:10 AM. Reason : .]

[Edited on December 3, 2010 at 9:14 AM. Reason : .]

12/3/2010 9:10:18 AM

If you don't like it, GTFO

12/3/2010 9:10:59 AM

^ Take this crap over to chit chat

12/3/2010 9:22:59 AM

^I'm glad you posted in here. I always look for your views in weather threads!!

12/3/2010 9:31:15 AM

Well, given the nature of the overall patterns and oscillations, it would appear that this thread is going to be rather short.

But things always change. We can hope they change.

12/3/2010 9:54:27 AM

I should add one thing in our favor is being in the left exit region of the jet streak (favorable for lift).

12/3/2010 9:56:10 AM

Gzusfrk thank you and Senez the NAO looks to be negative for quite some time so we may see some other chances coming down the line through at least the middle of the month.

12/3/2010 9:59:45 AM

True. Oddly, the 2000 snow event above was during a very positively oriented NAO.

12/3/2010 10:08:27 AM

^ That is interesting for sure. I am not sure how much that was talked about in the case studies done on that storm. To this day (being an original new yorker) it is still one of my favorite storms of all time and I have seen some good ones!

12/3/2010 10:26:09 AM

12z GFS is in with double the QPF for many as compared to the 6z run.

12/3/2010 11:15:46 AM

Will be 1/4 that in the 18Z run. Bank on it.

12/3/2010 11:19:28 AM

you guys wanna start talking in terms that us normal folk can understand?

12/3/2010 12:50:33 PM

qpf is quantitative precipitation forecast
The GFS is a weather forecast model and the numbers preceding it (12z, 18z, etc.) are how many hours out that forecast is.

12/3/2010 3:26:02 PM

^^ No. This kind of talk makes me I only get to deal with METAR KGSO 031954Z 30005KT 10SM BKN065 08/M04 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP168 T00831039

12/3/2010 3:35:10 PM

^^Actually, the 12Z, 18Z etc. refer to the time the model was initialized. The 18Z GFS is starting at 18Z. The 24hr forecast from the 18Z forecast is for 18Z tomorrow.

12/3/2010 7:14:33 PM

ENGLISH. DO YOU SPEAK IT MOTHERFUCKER?

12/3/2010 9:31:27 PM

Quote :

"I SEE A 216HR MODEL FORECAST IN HERE. BLASPHEMY. GET THAT OUTTA HERE. MIGHT AS WELL SAY IT'S GOING TO RAIN GOLD COINS."

Haha, called out! I don't bank on these things. Just showing what she was seeing. Now if you were my boss, he'd rely heavily on this. Hell, even our weather models for winter weather out here haven't gotten a good grip on Tuesday's forecast until just a day or two ago.

Or, am I just trying to stir the pot? Ah, the GFS and it's end of the world scenarios on 200+ HR forecasts....

12/3/2010 9:41:47 PM

Because I love snow maps

From a Greensboro Met for tomorrow:


Huffman:


[Edited on December 3, 2010 at 9:48 PM. Reason : ]

12/3/2010 9:48:02 PM

I'm loving the cold. Bring on winter.

12/4/2010 12:05:42 AM

I saw a few flakes here in Moore County this morning! I am on the East side of Southern Pines and checked out points south through Aberdeen into Pinebluff as well (neighboring towns). They also had the same conditions.

12/4/2010 10:02:17 AM

Coming down pretty steady in Greensboro

[Edited on December 4, 2010 at 12:57 PM. Reason : sticking too]

12/4/2010 12:57:11 PM

its coming down plenty here and sticking now.

12/4/2010 3:11:22 PM

yep, coming down pretty good and sticking in brier creek area

12/4/2010 3:14:28 PM

Anybody seen any snow sticking to the road?

12/4/2010 3:37:48 PM

About a 1/4 inch here in Cary

12/4/2010 3:40:45 PM

Nothing sticking to the roads here yet (looks slushy at most), but everything else is completely white. It's still coming down pretty hard here (Morrisville/Durham side of Cary).

12/4/2010 3:54:04 PM

More needles than plates here in GSO now.

12/4/2010 4:22:07 PM

I was hoping for like 2 or 3 feet.

12/4/2010 5:08:56 PM

pretty impressive compared to what I expected

not bad for a Dec. 4 snow

12/4/2010 5:13:40 PM

Still coming down good in wilson

12/4/2010 5:24:15 PM

WTF is up with this abnormally cold weather. In Wilmington the average is 60 deg high and 40 deg low this time of year. Except for 3 days next weekend, the 10 day forecast has highs in the 40's and lows in the 20's.

[Edited on December 5, 2010 at 11:27 AM. Reason : l]

12/5/2010 11:27:35 AM

It has been unseasonably cold where I live, too. We have had our windows open the last few nights and it's so cold in the morning when we wake up...at most 74 degrees! Brrrr!

But I guess 74 is pretty cold for Hawaii.

Suckahs! :p

(moving to CT in two weeks, so enjoying the weather while we can)

12/5/2010 11:59:53 AM

Down to 61* inside our apartment. But I'm determined to wait as long as possible before turning the heat on this year. I think we'll have to break sometime this week, with lows in the teens and highs in the 30s.

12/5/2010 12:06:12 PM