I'm looking at NOAA's climate prediction website trying to see what they think this fall and winter will bring but I am unsure of how to interpret the data.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off_index.html

I'm interested in potential rainfall in the western part of the state and whether we'll have a mild or severe winter?

halp?

10/15/2007 4:32:03 PM

umm...... first?

10/15/2007 4:32:47 PM

Can't you save that shit for chit chat?

10/15/2007 4:33:50 PM

drier

warmer

10/15/2007 4:39:45 PM

10/15/2007 4:41:25 PM

After 7-10 days meteorologists can not predict the weather any more than the guy on ESPN can predict the winner for an upcoming game.

He can make guesses based on current weather phenomenon using super computers to make correlations based on past weather events. However, it is still mostly guess work. Currently meteorologists have discovered evidence of a La Nina event occuring (lower than average sea temperatures off the S. American coast) historically this has been correlated with warmer and drier winter temperatures.

Contrary to popular belief and a poorly informed technician journalist the unusual warm streak last January was not the result of last year's El Nino which is correlated to wetter though not necessarily warmer winter weather.

[Edited on October 15, 2007 at 4:49 PM. Reason : l]

10/15/2007 4:48:31 PM

i can has drought relief?

10/15/2007 5:00:13 PM

huh?

10/15/2007 5:04:22 PM

Long-term climate projections for the next year predict average to below-average precipitation through this time next year.

Check out: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/two_class.html
These forecasts don't have a lot of skill, but they can at least predict a general trend and let you know if you're going to be above or below the 30 year mean. Expect to be below the 30 year mean precipitation for the next year.

10/15/2007 6:02:27 PM

^^ He made a post like the retarded "cat" pictures.

Sad really. First he scolded someone about it not being chit chat. He's like 25 or 28 or 30 or however old he is, then posts like a complete and utterly retarded 9th grader.

10/15/2007 6:11:39 PM

Just keep in mind, this is coming from the same people who predicated a higher than average hurricane season

10/15/2007 6:13:45 PM

maybe you can create a better simulation program that processes 100's of variables must conduct an insane amount of calculations and correlations in order to create the current models

10/15/2007 6:16:14 PM

Just saying, they do the best they can with the data they have (certainly better than I could) but it still has the potential of being completely wrong

10/15/2007 6:18:56 PM

PM HockeyRoman. I think he's some kind of meteorologist--he plays one in TSB anyway.

Seriously, I think he really does something in that field, Beardawg61.

10/16/2007 1:28:30 AM

Quote :

"Sad really. First he scolded someone about it not being chit chat. He's like 25 or 28 or 30 or however old he is, then posts like a complete and utterly retarded 9th grader."

yeah, what was that all about?

10/16/2007 1:35:25 AM

While childish, my post was asking a question related to the topic of the thread and therefore served a purpose.

"First" never serves any purpose.

10/16/2007 2:02:33 AM

agreed on the latter, and a big "if you say so" on the former.


.... anyhow, HUR gave a great answer. i dont know what to make of that fucker -- he suprises me fairly often.

10/16/2007 2:19:55 AM

Quote :

"higher than average hurricane season"

ZOMG NO CITY WAS RAVAGED BY A HURRICANE THIS SEASON SO IT MUST HAVE BEEN NONEXISTENT

10/16/2007 3:15:18 AM

10/16/2007 8:21:46 AM

I want a snowstorm this winter, METEOROLOGISTS GO!!

10/16/2007 10:57:47 AM

Quote :

"PM HockeyRoman. I think he's some kind of meteorologist--he plays one in TSB anyway. Seriously, I think he really does something in that field, Beardawg61."

Darkone already explained it for the most part. Everything I have heard says that we are boned. La Niña is kicking our ass.

10/16/2007 12:26:30 PM

I heard on NPR today that they're predicting a dryer winter than usual.

Quote :

""First" never serves any purpose. "

And "first" definitely has a purpose... like getting a thread rolling, or btt'ing.



or because I'd never done it before




[Edited on October 16, 2007 at 12:40 PM. Reason : sdf]

10/16/2007 12:38:09 PM

yeah i am not sure what happened to the hurricane season; it kinda just died off all of a sudden after starting to ramp up in Aug. Usually La Nina events increase tropical cyclone activity in the N. Atlantic but this does not seem to be the case this year.

If i had to put down a $5 bet i'd actually say we are going to have a colder winter then normal.

This past June and July were significantly cooler (at least in NC) than the 30 years norm. Then August came around and mother nature turned up the heat full blast with the hottest August on record. I think we are going to hit a brutal cold snap at some point. We have been having significantly warmer winters on the average lately; i think a bad winter is over due.

10/16/2007 12:42:28 PM

Quote :

"Usually La Nina events increase tropical cyclone activity in the N. Atlantic but this does not seem to be the case this year."

True and we did have hurricanes but nothing significant that made landfall.

10/16/2007 12:50:48 PM

ha, I should have picked Meteorology as my major. I mean how many jobs allow you to basically say "I have no fucking clue what is going to happen" and you still get paid?

10/16/2007 1:04:55 PM

le sigh.

The problem is that the only aspect of meteorology that the average yahoo even cares about is the forecasting. And it isn't like they are wrong most of the time. You'd be amazed how often they peg temps and precip for just day-to-day forecasts but people only pay attention and make a fuss when something is wrong. Personally I love weather research and data collection and could care less about the fortune telling part other than knowing if the coast is going to be windy for kiteboarding.

[Edited on October 16, 2007 at 1:11 PM. Reason : .]

10/16/2007 1:07:17 PM

^^

on topic though does anyone w/ more advanced knowledge in meteorology know why it has been so dry lately. Usually in aug/sept we get remnants of tropical cyclones providing precipitable water and in October extratropical cyclones with their associated weather fronts tend to cause a lot of rain. Neither has really come thru this year though.

[Edited on October 16, 2007 at 1:12 PM. Reason : s]

10/16/2007 1:09:47 PM

Quote :

"ZOMG NO CITY WAS RAVAGED BY A HURRICANE THIS SEASON SO IT MUST HAVE BEEN NONEXISTENT"

Did I say it was nonexistent?

10/16/2007 1:16:24 PM

^^ We've been dry because of the persistent high pressure airmass over the Southeast preventing convective activity and cutting off moisture from the Gulf. There just haven't been any troughs with the right setup or enough energy to push out the high pressure ridge for more than a few days. Frankly, the only way we get a lot of rain this time of year is from tropical cyclones and obviously that hasn't happened.

10/16/2007 2:02:50 PM

Quote :

"on topic though does anyone w/ more advanced knowledge in meteorology know why it has been so dry lately. Usually in aug/sept we get remnants of tropical cyclones providing precipitable water and in October extratropical cyclones with their associated weather fronts tend to cause a lot of rain. Neither has really come thru this year though."

global warming, duh.


Well, thats the simplest answer for non-meteorology people like me



[Edited on October 16, 2007 at 2:06 PM. Reason : ased]

10/16/2007 2:03:41 PM

^ Simple, yes. Correct, no.

10/16/2007 2:08:19 PM

so for the 3rd straight winter its gonna be a sucky one?

10/16/2007 2:17:08 PM

when they talk about troughs and ridges that specifically refers to the upper level atmospheric pressure not necessarily the msl, right?

10/16/2007 2:18:34 PM

Quote :

"maybe you can create a better simulation program that processes 100's of variables must conduct an insane amount of calculations and correlations in order to create the current models"

dart board?

Quote :

"Simple, yes. Correct, no."

her 'simple' response is the kneejerk "i listen to the news, sorta, and don't really understand it, but i'll just regurgitate the buzzwords I heard"

[Edited on October 16, 2007 at 2:24 PM. Reason : s]

10/16/2007 2:21:16 PM

Quote :

"her 'simple' response is the kneejerk "i listen to the news, sorta, and don't really understand it, but i'll just regurgitate the buzzwords I heard""

Congratulations. You just figured out 99% of the arguments about weather, climate, and climate change that you see in the world around you. Sometimes, being an atmospheric scientist, I just want to beat people to death for thinking they know everything when all they spout out is gross ignorance and psudo-scientific political conjecture.

10/16/2007 4:23:53 PM

Um, I've seen an Inconvenient Truth, I think I'm just as qualified as any one to predict the weather and why its so hot. For serial.

10/16/2007 4:36:40 PM

^^ so you don't believe modern weather patterns have anything to do with global warming?

10/16/2007 5:27:08 PM

^ yes but i think the extent of the effect is grossly exaggerated by each side of the argument with tree hugging hippies preaching hell and brimstone with the oceans flooding and category 5 storms blowing away the whole east coast. Whereas the conservatives will argue till blue in the face that it is merely impossible for humans to have any effect on the climate on "global warming" is part of the secret agenda of the liberal media.

My opinion is in the middle where i can understand where humans could through their CO2 emissions play a minor impact which along with natural global atmospheric cycles account for the recent warm trend. I do not think it is possible to quantify which part of the current weather trends can be blamed on global warming.

10/16/2007 5:45:03 PM

But you know, I just said global warming. Perhaps I was only referring to the trend of rising temperatures around the world as recorded over the past centuries, not man-kind's roll in it and "psudo-scientific political conjecture."

10/16/2007 6:00:41 PM

^^^ The short reply to that comment is a cautionary statement warning that you not confuse short term variability with long term climate change. There are processes in the atmosphere that act on vastly different scales and on vastly different time periods.

10/16/2007 6:15:54 PM

kinda like music which is a blend of several frequencies

10/16/2007 6:18:47 PM

^ exactly

10/16/2007 6:21:31 PM

^ Unfortunately this is beyond the comprehension level of most TWWers

10/16/2007 6:30:56 PM

^ Fourier Transforms FTL?

10/16/2007 6:35:08 PM

yes what about them.

i'm EE

10/16/2007 7:20:05 PM

Quote :

"Congratulations. You just figured out 99% of the arguments about weather, climate, and climate change that you see in the world around you. Sometimes, being an atmospheric scientist, I just want to beat people to death for thinking they know everything when all they spout out is gross ignorance and psudo-scientific political conjecture."

Welcome to hot topic science! (biology/evolution/abortion etc etc etc here....)

10/16/2007 7:37:31 PM

I hate so much how every global warming discussion turns into a debate on if humans are causing it or not. IMVEO, humans are speeding it up but none of that matters because its too late to reverse it, if we somehow could, which we most likely can't.

The reason theres been no tropical activity around here is because until we were good and into september most of the steering currents in the atlantic basin were shutdown. This let many storms just travel straight west. Mexico and central america had a very active season. Aruba even got sideswiped by then and most storms are usually far north of aruba and turn into the gulf, or bahamas before they make it there but there was a due west movement on most storms, even in the gulf this year and i'm not sure but if i had to guess thats probably due to a strong high pressure system around the seus/cuba.

Then late in october things seemed to become normal with the bermuda high curving storms out into the atlantic but there was still a lot of weirdly placed winds in the atlantic ruining storms.

10/16/2007 8:55:20 PM

^ Read up on this thing called wind shear and how it relates to tropical development. That will explain why this hurricane season has been so quiet. There have been plenty of tropical waves and the oceans are plenty warm. It's the almost constant wind shear that's been fucking everything up.

10/16/2007 9:15:32 PM

That was glaringly obvious in the few developed storms we did have. Most of them looked like ass.

10/16/2007 9:39:20 PM

^^I know all about wind shear and its nothing new or groundbreaking. Its a typical thing that happens every year. you had the arrow there but your post didn't seem to be a response to mine.

we had 2 of the stronger storms ever this season so its not like shear was messing everything up. And "shear" isn't an actual thing its more of an event so blaming shear is useless if you aren't going to say whats causing the shear.
like i said

Quote :

"weirdly placed winds in the atlantic ruining storms."

but why?

Its been a pretty average hurricane season,except for the tracks they have taken

I never questioned the amount of waves and water temps. . Water temps in the tropics are often warm enough all year but steering currents this year were gone. Pretty much everything past 20degrees N stalled out. Almost every storm moved straight west its entire life.

10/17/2007 12:41:03 AM