this changes everything

10/8/2006 10:54:01 PM

this changes nothing

10/8/2006 10:55:27 PM

we weren't going to do anything...and never will. Interesting development nonetheless.

10/8/2006 10:59:28 PM

national self determination is on the march

10/8/2006 11:07:35 PM

God damn North Korea you are gonig to make more people hate nuclear power.

10/8/2006 11:08:47 PM

^^ Whose alias are you?

[Edited on October 8, 2006 at 11:09 PM. Reason : a]

10/8/2006 11:09:04 PM

was this a test like their missles or was it a successful test?

10/8/2006 11:25:27 PM

Quote :

"reuters reports the test was conducted in Apex, NC"

10/8/2006 11:25:58 PM

changes the landscape of asia

now japan is going to develop them, and change their constitution

south korea will develop the bomb


cluster fuck down the road

10/8/2006 11:30:42 PM

US GS says they have picked up some seizmic activity.

10/8/2006 11:40:39 PM

China got a twenty minute warning.

10/8/2006 11:43:32 PM

20 bucks says it wasn't a nuke

They prolly crammed as much explosives as they could, dug a hole, and detonated it. OMG SEISMIC ITS A NUKE.

And you people are idiots....its obvious North Korea is using this a diversion for their Zerg rush that'll destroy South Korea

[Edited on October 8, 2006 at 11:48 PM. Reason : a]

10/8/2006 11:44:43 PM

It wouldn't be too hard to tell if it wasn't a nuke. For one, the gamma and neutron burst is detectable from a hell of a long way away. Also, even smaller atomic blasts are on the order of 1000's of tons of TNT. Even if North Korea did simply bury and detonate 10000 tons of TNT (or less for other high explosives) they couldn't have moved that much without our spy satellites seeing it. And you know we've got our spy satellites on them.

10/8/2006 11:56:20 PM

Confirmed by a "Senior Bush Administration Official." Bomb was not as powerful as they expected.

[Edited on October 8, 2006 at 11:58 PM. Reason : Looking for 400 kilotons, but didn't get that.]

10/8/2006 11:57:57 PM

can someone explain to me why its soo hard to make a nuke? seems like after a few people do it you could just copy paste easily as long as you have the materials but theres obviously more to it.

why is it so complicated?

10/9/2006 12:02:38 AM

^x6

Quote :

"The U.S. Geological Survey's Rafael Abreau said the earthquake-measuring agency has not recorded any seismic activity from North Korea. However, South Korean intelligence officials said a seismic wave of magnitude-3.58 had been detected in North Hamkyung province, according to Yonhap."

[Edited on October 9, 2006 at 12:05 AM. Reason : don't even respond to his question]

[Edited on October 9, 2006 at 12:06 AM. Reason : more]

10/9/2006 12:03:47 AM

Its actually very easy to make a simple nuke...getting the weapon grade uranium and plutonium is a bitch though

10/9/2006 12:04:08 AM

Is it a coincidence that Team America was on Showtime last night?

10/9/2006 12:05:12 AM

japan and china will deal with it.

move along, folks.

10/9/2006 12:13:33 AM

korea gs had sesimic activity

usgs had no reports

400kilotons is like 10x the weapons used in japan and is way more than necessary for a test.



[Edited on October 9, 2006 at 12:23 AM. Reason : via per]

10/9/2006 12:15:49 AM

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/ustqab.php

now confirmed?

10/9/2006 12:30:10 AM

lmao the picture on foxnews got bigger when the us confirmed it


FLASH LIGHTS FLASH LIGHTS. BREAKING NEWS . FLASH LIGHTS FLASH LIGHTS /FOXNEWS

10/9/2006 12:37:53 AM

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

10/9/2006 12:40:48 AM

[Edited on October 9, 2006 at 1:17 AM. Reason : looks better]

10/9/2006 1:17:16 AM

10/9/2006 1:29:36 AM

Well, no real surprise, but life in Eastern Asia has certainly gotten a lot more interesting.

Quote :

"can someone explain to me why its soo hard to make a nuke? seems like after a few people do it you could just copy paste easily as long as you have the materials but theres obviously more to it."

The technology behind it isn't too difficult, but building the infastructure and gathering the materials needed to do the work takes some effort. First, you need the tools to enrich the uranium and build the device; very specific and sophisticated hardware is required to do the job correctly. Then, you need a good chunk of time to properly manufacture, assemble, and test the stuff you build. Finally, you need the time to actually produce the enriched uranium or plutonium.

Not difficult for most nations to do, but it's a very difficult project to hide given all the international controls on the technology.

10/9/2006 1:42:59 AM

CNN said it was a .550Kton nuke, where Hiroshima was 12.5Kton.

I don't think this changes too much either though, except we have to tip-toe around NK a little bit more, and it also gives the Dems an opportunity to criticize Bush for trumping up Iraq, when NK was there spitting in our faces the whole time.

10/9/2006 3:11:16 AM

^

Well, it is a failure of Republican policy. I know TGD and others will roundly trumpet this event as an "October Surprise" laden with electoral gifts for the GOP, but -- frankly -- it's just a disappointment. America has, and always has had, leverage in dealing with North Korea.

I'm sure North Korea's role is purely strategic. China is not our friend; but, common enemies unite. As long as we stand multi-laterally against refugees flooding that particular border, there is reason to let the Taiwan issue rest another year.

And Kim Jong Il is happy to play the pawn -- he is the tail that wags the dog.

But ultimately, brinksmanship and balls win out in foreign policy as in other negotiation settings. None such has come from this administration. Must the nukes be of Hiroshima quality before we act? After all -- Iraq has shown us the free-for-all that ensures in a power vacuum. Let's be careful.

10/9/2006 3:17:52 AM

Quote :

" Must the nukes be of Hiroshima quality before we act? After all -- Iraq has shown us the free-for-all that ensures in a power vacuum. Let's be careful."

The size of the nuke doesn't matter at all politically, but it indicates that either NK is holding back, or their development is still somewhat early in the game, or both.

10/9/2006 3:43:21 AM

Quote :

"But ultimately, brinksmanship and balls win out in foreign policy as in other negotiation settings. None such has come from this administration. Must the nukes be of Hiroshima quality before we act? After all -- Iraq has shown us the free-for-all that ensures in a power vacuum. Let's be careful."

i'm pretty sure i agree with this

[Edited on October 9, 2006 at 3:44 AM. Reason : ^if its still early in the game then we should act now...why wait]

10/9/2006 3:43:47 AM

From what I understand, it's not too hard to go from a .5Kton nuke to a much more powerful one, once you have the refined material. If we are going to attack, we'd have to hit their production facilities hard in the next week, assuming they don't have another, more powerful, warhead ready to go. I don't see this happening. If our strikes failed, we have a nuclear-capable nest of bees that are pissed off. Remember what happened to Macaulay Culkin in My Girl?

10/9/2006 3:51:26 AM

Who cares if they have a warhead, they can't even shoot a missle over japan. They would have better luck driving the thing to the DMZ and blowing it up there then zerg rushing.

10/9/2006 7:38:47 AM

We just need a good old fashioned preemptive nuclear strike!

Well maybe not.

10/9/2006 7:41:52 AM

^^ they'd starve before they got 20 miles into the south...

10/9/2006 8:06:37 AM

It's pretty sad when crazed idiot regimes start using a nuclear bomb as their insurance device against an American attack to "liberate" their population. Then again, when you call them out as an "Axis of Evil" and state your desire to overthrow their government after you did it one of the Axis, it's not like they're gonna stand by and wait for you to come.

I don't know what to really think about this. It's not good by any stretch just because of the temperament of the North Korean leadership. Under MAD, we know through history that Kruscshchev was very nervous and unsure about the moves he was making during the Cuban Missile Crisis cause he didn't want to be the one responsible for bringing death to a lot of the world through nukes. Does anyone think Kim Jong Il has such sentiment?

Quote :

"N Korea carries out nuclear test October 09, 2006 (News.com.au) NORTH Korea has this afternoon detonated a nuclear device despite global warnings that it would bring a powerful response from the international community. The country's official Korean Central News Agency said there had been no radioactive leakage from the site. "The nuclear test is a historic event that brought happiness to the our military and people," KCNA said. "The nuclear test will contribute to maintaining peace and stability in the Korean peninsula and surrounding region." South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun has convened a meeting of security advisers over the issue, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported, and intelligence over the test has been exchanged between concerned countries. The North said last week it would conduct a test, sparking regional concern and frantic diplomatic efforts aimed at dissuading Pyongyang from such a move. North Korea has long claimed to have nuclear weapons, but had never before performed a known test to prove its arsenal. The nuclear test was conducted at 10:36 a.m. (0136 GMT) in Hwaderi near Kilju city, Yonhap reported, citing defence officials. The detonation caused a significant seismic event, which was identified by agencies around the world. AntiSpin: Meanwhile, on the border with China... The troop trains were rolling even on the Chinese mid-autumn festival on Friday. Civilian traffic on a main line was halted to allow one train to pass, with carriages jammed with glum soldiers in camouflage and flat cars carrying olive-green military vehicles. And while a few off-duty men strolled with their sweethearts under the full moon along the banks of the Yalu, others watched from outposts at the silent, darkened shores of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. China's dilemma is that its ruling elites are still bound to those of North Korea by a like-minded political authoritarianism. President Hu Jintao has even praised North Korea for keeping to its Stalinist politics, a view he may be repenting now that Kim has brought China to the brink of a nuclear crisis. Beijing's main fear is that if Kim tests a bomb - the CIA believes he has enough plutonium for four; other US sources think more - then Japan will feel it has no choice but to acquire its own atomic arsenal. That would destroy the balance of power in northeast Asia that has kept the peace since the end of World War II. China's secondary fear is that if Kim's regime collapses, hundreds of thousands of desperate, hungry North Koreans, some armed, will flood across its border to sow unrest and instability. And in the US... A North Korean test would mark a painful defeat for the Bush administration. Having said repeatedly that it would never tolerate a nuclear-armed North, Washington may find that it has little choice but to do so. American credibility will be weakened and the system of international agreements meant to stop nuclear proliferation will suffer a possibly fatal blow. Pyongyang's success will probably embolden Iran in its quest for nuclear capability while heightening Washington's resolve to use any means necessary to stop it. And this is to say nothing of the possibility that North Korea may follow through on yet another threat that it has made, albeit obliquely, in recent years: to sell or transfer nuclear weapons or material to whomever it chooses. This is a sad day for humanity. It may well be remembered as the beginning of one of the darkest periods in history. "

[Edited on October 9, 2006 at 8:55 AM. Reason : /]

10/9/2006 8:50:46 AM

Quote :

"Who cares if they have a warhead, they can't even shoot a missle over japan. They would have better luck driving the thing to the DMZ and blowing it up there then zerg rushing."

While certainly having a nuclear weapon mounted on top of one of their missiles is a frightening prospect, even a larger, cruder weapon is a scary thought. The North Koreans have a substantial network of agents within South Korea and Japan. For them to smuggle the bomb out to one of those countries, assemble it, and turn an American military base or a large city into a smoldering crater is not a happy prospect.

10/9/2006 9:06:21 AM

Quote :

"... crazed idiot regimes..."

Quote :

"when you call them out as an "Axis of Evil" and state your desire to overthrow their government after you did it one of the Axis, it's not like they're gonna stand by and wait for you to come. "

Seems pretty rational to me.

10/9/2006 9:09:09 AM

^^

Yeah, North Korea's smuggling network is supposed to be fairly impressive. I wouldn't be suprised if this prompts vastly improved radiation detection well before ships reach ports.

10/9/2006 9:12:57 AM

Quote :

"Smoker4: I know TGD and others will roundly trumpet this event as an "October Surprise" laden with electoral gifts for the GOP, but -- frankly -- it's just a disappointment."

I hadn't even thought that far, I was just hoping this will finally push Japan to amend its constitution and arm up with nukes themselves. Makes an excellent counterpoint to Chinese hegemony in Asia.

10/9/2006 9:14:41 AM

Not at all.

A strong japanese economy is an excellent counterpoint.

A nuclear japan re-adopting an aggressive militaristic stance just increases the tension in Asia and makes it all the more likely one person will do something stupid.

Grats to the Bush administration for its skillful diplomacy. How in the hell one squanders the global leadership position attained after 9/11 in such a spectacular way is beyond me.

10/9/2006 9:44:45 AM

http://www.wral.com/news/10030088/detail.html

Quote :

"Russia's defense minister said the test was the equivalent of 5,000 to 15,000 tons of TNT. That's along the lines of the Hiroshima bomb in World War II -- and much larger than the force given earlier by South Korea's geological institute. It said the explosion was equivalent to 550 tons of TNT."

10/9/2006 9:52:35 AM

Quote :

"Grats to the Bush administration for its skillful diplomacy."

I was kinda hoping the UN was going to do something about this. You know, the way diplomacy is supposed to be handled in this magic world of resolving our differences through a press conference.

I should have known they'd fail at it.

My guess, a joint strike including several nations that takes out the known targets for nuclear capability. We will give them fair warning to evacuate and then drop bombs on it sometime within the next 3 months.

10/9/2006 9:59:26 AM

^nobody knows where the facilities are.

i could see them nuking hiroshima and telling America "we're just trying to be more like you"

10/9/2006 10:18:53 AM

Quote :

" My guess, a joint strike including several nations that takes out the known targets for nuclear capability. We will give them fair warning to evacuate and then drop bombs on it sometime within the next 3 months. "

I don't think that'll work, especially not after 3 months, because NK would see it coming, and protect their stock. Then, when the strike failed to destroy the actual bombs, they might feel tempted to do some bombing of their own, especially if our bombing results in a nothing-to-lose scenario for them.

My guess is that we threaten to bomb them, and then start the diplomacy back.

10/9/2006 10:19:19 AM

Quote :

"I was kinda hoping the UN was going to do something about this. You know, the way diplomacy is supposed to be handled in this magic world of resolving our differences through a press conference. I should have known they'd fail at it."

We don't need the UN. We're the motherf***in United States. We can attack North Korea by ourselves. Screw France, screw Russia, and screw China. We're the world's only superpower, and to say we need the help of Europe or China is insulting. We will do as we please cause we know best. Not to mention we have the full support of Comoros and Tuvalu in our broad coalition, and that's a winning combination.

[/sarcasm]

No sarcasm: Actions have consequences. The US invasion of Iraq pretty much made the UN the Queen of England when it comes to world security. We have to deal with the consequences of that now. If you're going to do one thing on your own, it's not like you can reset everything to how it was beforehand when it suits your desires.

The only people that are affected by North Korea are Japan, China, the USA, South Korea, and Russia. They're the only ones that will do anything about it. Russia and China aren't going to do anything concrete (like commit troops). Japan's army is woefully unprepared thanks to their constitution that General MacArthur drew up, and South Korea has depended on our military too much traditionally. My dad's been in Iraq twice and will be going a third time next summer. He tells me there's going to be a draft. I'm starting to believe him.

[Edited on October 9, 2006 at 10:23 AM. Reason : /]

10/9/2006 10:20:07 AM

Quote :

"i could see them nuking hiroshima and telling America "we're just trying to be more like you""

Yeah, just like us. A for the troll.

10/9/2006 10:32:50 AM

10/9/2006 10:41:03 AM

that was a joke.


but long term- i dont see anyway out of this without a war.

10/9/2006 10:48:39 AM

^^^ Invasion or an attack are still highly unlikely; a war in that region would kill millions in the opening week and disrupt the global economy like no other. If North Korea were to be attacked, the first thing they would do is burn Seoul, a city of 14 million to the ground; this would not be difficult since they have thousands of artillery pieces within range of the city, equipped with both conventional as well as chemical and biological shells. North Korea would likely also start dropping chemical and biological warheads using its missile fleet onto Japanese targets; mind you, I don't know how many direct hits they'd score, but for a nation as crowded as Japan, missing Tokyo to blow up Yokohama would still kill thousands and disrupt the global economy. This doesn't even go into a disruption of cargo into and out of the region as North Korean submarines go on the offensive.

Also consider that on the border between North and South Korea, they've got about 1.1 million soldiers facing off against each other. The military calculates that the average lifespan of a soldier on the DMZ in the outbreak of war would be about twenty three seconds (plus or minus a minute). Throw in the tens of thousands of US soldiers on the Korean penninsula, horrible mountainous terrain, a North Korean commando force numbering around 100,000, and a freaked out Chinese government, and it's obvious even to the Bush administration that war is not a rational or even fantastic option.

No, no one, except maybe the North Koreans (and even that is unlikely since it's a guaranteed end to the regime), is going to deliberatly start a war; that being said, history is full of situations that have escalated irrationally to warfare, but at least for all the major players, they are going to be damn sure that they do everything possible not to cross that line.

10/9/2006 10:49:17 AM

^i see soemthing mor along the lines of n korea constantly calling our bluff with the possibility of war as leverage and we never do anything until one day they take it 1 step too far.

10/9/2006 10:56:56 AM