In no way is he non-partisan of course, but it's a hell of an article, and I'd like to see if TSB can quote bomb it to death. I'm sure Excoriator or TGD will give it a shot at least.

http://www.ndnblog.org/archives/001505.html

Quote :

"It is shaping up to be a very bad year for the GOP Simon Rosenberg So, the President starts dropping just a few weeks after an ineffective State of the Union. In some polls he dips below 40 percent, truly dangerous territory. It seems like their years of bad governance has finally caught up with them. That the American people are focusing more on deeds, not words. But can the ruthless pols running the GOP these days turn this thing around and snatch a victory from what could be a near-certain defeat? Looking at how the year is likely to unfold, it is very hard to see how they turn this thing around. Let’s drill down a little. Their strong and resolute leader gets no bounce from his State of the Union, and has now dropped below levels no one thought possible. News in recent days show that the many parallel criminal investigations into GOP leaders are gaining additional momentum, and will likely become a very big problem later this year. Their domestic policy advisor, the quarterback for any major new domestic initiative, resigns suddenly a few days after the State of the Union indicating deeper troubles inside the White House than is commonly understood. Bush's budget is declared dead on arrival by even Republican analysts. The Medicare prescription drug rollout has been a disaster, with millions of seniors not getting their medicines. Millions who do have the benefit will be hitting the infamous "doughnut hole" for the first time in the months right before the election. Energy costs are more likely to rise than fall this year. Health care costs will continue to rise, further squeezing workers and corporations. The Republicans are deeply divided on the volatile immigration issue, and so far have allowed loony demagogues to define their position. Corporate pension troubles will mount. Economic forecasts predict that national economy will slow later this year. Bad you say, but what about their ability to exploit their advantages on security issues to help turn the table on Democrats? But what can they point to here? The 9/11 Commission giving their efforts on homeland security Ds and Fs? The rise of terrorism across the world? The incredible failures of the Department of Homeland Security on Katrina? The rise of anti-Americanism throughout Latin America? Iraq? Just in recent days the Administration lost another one in Iraq, with our candidate for Prime Minister losing to a more religious candidate. The CIA analyst in charge of the intelligence leading up to the War says the Administration went too far, essentially manufacturing their case for war. More photos from Abu Grahib surface and get worldwide coverage. In the Plame affair, Libby fingers Cheney as having ordered the leaks, raising the possibility that both Rove and Cheney could be indicted. Even if Bush pulls out troops this year it is hard to see how Iraq possibly becomes an asset for them this year. A safer Middle East? Religious zealots dedicated to the destruction of Israel have now gained power in Iran and Palestine. Al Qaeda operatives convicted for the bombing an American warship in Yemen "escape" from prison, and now on the loose. Things seem to be getting much worse there, not better. Domestic warrantless spying? The President has spent perhaps more days this year on this issue than any other. And for what? Is something they really believe will be a big winner this fall? Their Congressional leaders have it made it clear that this program cannot continue without judicial oversight. The White House belief that this is a winner just shows how little they have to work with. And finally, Cheney. Always a public opinion anchor, he has become an ever bigger liability for the President. So, how do they turn it around this year? Don't really see how they do it. I've been skeptical about the fall elections becoming a 1994-like "change election." But given that in Mid-February the President has dropped below 40 percent, their weak agenda has nowhere to go, foreign policy and security issues are as likely to be as damaging to them as helpful, and the criminal cases against their leadership will spread and deepen, I think even the skeptics have to now acknowledge that 2006 is likely to become an historically bad year for the governing party."

Note that he's not forecasting a reverse 1994 in November. He does raise a good question, though. How do they turn it around?

2/20/2006 8:41:30 PM

Quote :

"Gamecat: I'm sure Excoriator or TGD will give it a shot at least."

Excoriator maybe, but you already know my take on it

2/20/2006 9:00:26 PM

No, actually, I don't.

How do they turn it around?

Are you going to say "they don't have to because the Democrats are going to continue fucking themselves politically?"

2/20/2006 9:06:50 PM

like half the ppl that vote even follow politics.

2/20/2006 9:13:46 PM

Why are you reposting an article from January 2004?

2/20/2006 9:17:15 PM

you guys keep on predicting this bad year for the GOP...i dont see it.i predict gains in both houses....no doubt about it

2/20/2006 9:19:15 PM

Quote :

"it's a hell of an article"

all he did was write a bullet point list of the past month's news. yes, its bad news for republicans, but a "hell of an article" should be more than a summary.

Quote :

"How do they turn it around? Are you going to say "they don't have to because the Democrats are going to continue fucking themselves politically?""

yes. also, just imagine how demoralized democrats will be when they don't make any significant gains this year.

set 'em up. knock 'em down. until democrats get their head out of their relativistic ass and find an absolutist position on ANY issue at all, republicans will continue to pwn dems perpetually.

[Edited on February 20, 2006 at 9:26 PM. Reason : s]

2/20/2006 9:22:42 PM

No gains is a pretty laughable position at this point.

2/20/2006 9:27:49 PM

I certainly won't discount the possibility that democrats will gain 1-2 senate seats and a handful of congressional seats.

but come on, you've gotta admit that democrats are once again setting themselves up for another heartbreak. I mean, Bush was an unwinnable candidate 2 years ago - remember!?

2/20/2006 9:29:39 PM

Actually, no. I don't remember myself or the left ever calling him an unwinnable candidate. That would contradict the vehemence with which he was campaigned against.

2/20/2006 9:40:57 PM

Here's another prediction from Mr. Rosenberg...

Quote :

"2004...Democrats Are Back. The Democratic Party has renewed strength; it has higher favorable ratings and scores better than Republicans on generic congressional and state legislative ballots. The presidential race is a dead heat nationally, and John Kerry is beating President Bush by eight percentage points (51 to 43) in battleground states. This is a dramatic change from last year and good news for Democrats."

...and his endorsement of someone who has really helped the party...

Quote :

"Today, I am endorsing Governor Howard Dean to be the next Chairman of the DNC. While we have not always agreed on every issue, I believe his passion for our Party, his remarkable fighting spirit, his direct and powerful way of speaking, and his commitment to bringing regular people back into our Party will allow him to revitalize our Party and help us win again in the 21st century. "

2/20/2006 9:40:59 PM

Quote :

"I don't remember... the left ever calling him an unwinnable candidate"

then you don't have a memory. congratulations you're qualified to vote.

2/20/2006 9:48:03 PM

^ Show me:

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&safe=off&rls=SUNA%2CSUNA%3A2006-02%2CSUNA%3Aen&q=unwinnable+candidate+Bush+2004

It's one thing to assert, it's another to have evidence.

Quote :

"EarthDogg: Here's another prediction from Mr. Rosenberg..."

Great. So he's been wrong on a prediction before.

So, how does the GOP turn it around by November?

Quote :

"EarthDogg: ...and his endorsement of someone who has really helped the party..."

...whose tenure isn't over and whose effect on the party hasn't been explained by you for good or ill.

[Edited on February 20, 2006 at 9:49 PM. Reason : ...]

2/20/2006 9:48:10 PM

Not only do you keep asking the same question after its been accurately answered, you're the one who answered it.

Quote :

"they don't have to because the Democrats are going to continue fucking themselves politically"

TWW has reached new heights... of something... today.

2/20/2006 9:49:43 PM

I didn't answer it. I asked if that was going to be the answer of other people.

http://www.english-at-home.com/

2/20/2006 9:54:05 PM

Quote :

"Gamecat: Are you going to say "they don't have to because the Democrats are going to continue fucking themselves politically?""

Actually I thought that was your position, I'll have to go back and check my "How fucked is the GOP?" thread

[edit: correction, you picked "Possibly fucked, but possibly not fucked." my mistake.]

[edit again: the only one to pick C too. way to be decisive ]

---

Quote :

"Gamecat: No, actually, I don't."

Sure you do...

Quote :

"Gamecat: Of course you don't care when your worldview is getting pumped into every house through every TV every day of the week."

[Edited on February 20, 2006 at 9:59 PM. Reason : ---]

2/20/2006 9:55:43 PM

Of course you'd chide me in the name of decisiveness. I wouldn't expect a neo-con to recognize or value honesty.

2/20/2006 10:01:30 PM

ok since we've established your people are going to win this year, when is this overly sensitive prickliness going to disappear? or is that the "feigned outrage" part of Teh L3ft-Wing Pl4yb00k?

2/20/2006 10:04:20 PM

I'm loving the partisan bickering. Like either party gives a damn about the American people. It doesn't matter who wins, it will just be more of the same. More lies, more talking, and no action.

2/20/2006 10:16:16 PM

Quote :

"Gamecat :So, how does the GOP turn it around by November?"

You know, I'm kinda hoping the GOP does get its butt kick around a little. They need to get the message that conservatives want to vote for conservatives. We've already got a party that loves big gov't, and runaway spending...we don't need two.

[Edited on February 20, 2006 at 10:21 PM. Reason : .]

2/20/2006 10:20:48 PM

Quote :

"How do they turn it around?"

Thats easy.



scaremongering


Human-Animal hybrids motherfucker

2/20/2006 10:21:23 PM

Oh, we don't turn it around by November. We'll be running a lot of incompetents who are too close to Bush, no doubt. The only chance is that the Democrats clusterfuck themselves even worse than they have, which isn't inconceivable, but which isn't what I expect. The only thing I still have any hope for is a decent nominee for '08.

2/20/2006 10:28:10 PM

McCain/Rice

that would be teh winz

2/20/2006 10:42:09 PM

Rice has squandered a lot of her potential. Blacks/democrats see her as a lackey.

2/20/2006 10:42:55 PM

more blogs determining the fate of the nation again... lol

2/20/2006 10:47:57 PM

Quote :

"Note that he's not forecasting a reverse 1994 in November."

Oh, and Rice has fucked herself repeatedly by insisting that she won't run.

2/20/2006 11:00:19 PM

Quote :

"Of course you'd chide me in the name of decisiveness. I wouldn't expect a neo-con to recognize or value honesty."

Is it me or is "[typical] neo-con " the new "[typical] liberal "

2/20/2006 11:40:34 PM

That is what all you fucking left nuts said in the fall of 2004. HOW DID THAT WORK OUT FOR YOU?

2/21/2006 3:17:43 PM

Rice has squandered a lot of her potential. Blacks/democrats see her as a lackey.

Rice has been the victim of a racist smear campaign by the left. Blacks/democrats unfairly paint her as a lackey because she is a conservative african-american.

Quote :

"Oh, and Rice has fucked herself repeatedly by insisting that she won't run."

that's never stopped anyone from running for president. denial is mandatory, particularly if you're an administration official.

[Edited on February 21, 2006 at 3:21 PM. Reason : s]

2/21/2006 3:20:24 PM

Quote :

"you guys keep on predicting this bad year for the GOP...i dont see it.i predict gains in both houses....no doubt about it"

ahhh hahaha


and if McCain makes it through the primaries, it doesn't even matter who his running mate is.

2/21/2006 8:45:21 PM